El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

Q&A with RICHARD CECCARELLI

Richard Ceccarelli is back for another round of questions. Rich's blog, Pearly Gates focuses on the Anaheim Angels from the O.C. The self proclaimed “all knowing one”;) was kind enough to answer a few questions on the Sox upcoming opponent.

El Guapo's Ghost: Both the Sox and Angels are on fire heading toward the critical series. Both have been winning primarily with the wood. Erstad and DaVannon have been red hot of late. Anderson appears to be back in the everyday lineup. Glaus is on a rehab assignment and looks like he isn’t too far off. Do you feel Angels are in a good position to put up big offensive numbers through September?

Rich Ceccarelli: Keep in mind that I’m writing this a night after the Angels dropped 21 on the Royals, but yeah, I do expect the offense to play at a high level down the stretch. Lack of power is the only thing that stalls this offense, and the power really has no where to go but up.

Consider that Vlad hasn’t been Vlad for the past couple of months (.837 in July). He’s been merely "good", not his usual jaw-dropping great. Now he’s starting to get into that groove. I would expect him to catch fire down the stretch.

Anderson, while still not getting many balls over the wall, is hitting the ball harder than he did when he came off the DL. I’m still not confident that GA will ever hit for much power in the future, but he’s certainly not the player who went 39 games without a homer.

And the imminent return of Glaus (who is currently tearing it up on a rehab assignment) can only help. I’m not expecting much from a guy returning this soon from what was considered a career-threading shoulder injury, but the Angels’ have received anemic power production from the DH slot, so literally anything Glaus can give them will be an improvement.

This was a team that was expected to be near the top in homeruns when the season started, but has fallen well short of expectations. They’re going to live up to those expectations down the stretch.

EGG: As you mentioned in our last Q&A, Anaheim relies heavily on AVG (although the power numbers should improve) instead of the en vogue power and patience formula for scoring runs. The club doesn’t walk much, but the lineup does not strikeout often either. It seems like a tough match up for the Sox even with their improved defense. It reminds me of the Anaheim-MFY division series a few years back. What’s your take?

Ceccarelli: The Angels are going to put the ball in-play a ton, and their speed is going to pressure on the new-and-improved Sox defense. It’ll be a good barometer for Epstein’s deadline moves.

EGG: Reports have Anaheim going to a four-man rotation and with Washburn looking like he’ll start next weekend, it places Lackey, Sele and Escobar on the mound for the Sox series. How have the trio pitched of late? Is Escobar’s blister issue under control?

Ceccarelli: As far as I know, Escobar is feeling no ill effects of the blister. Outside of the one game in which he was forced to leave early because of the blister, Escobar has been nails as of late (2.81 ERA in August).

Lackey is a bit of an enigma, as he’s put in several of the Angels’ best pitching performances of the season, but he’s also a candidate to get blown off the mound in every start. August has been particularly unkind to him (7.06 ERA in 5 starts). I do like the fact that he’s striking batters out at a 9.51 K/9 over that span (very un-Lackey like) but it doesn’t seem to be a recipe for successes thus far. I trust that he’ll break out of it sooner rather than later.

I’ll say this about Aaron Sele- I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him. He’s done- running on fumes. Every quality start is a bonus at this point.

EGG: The Sox will likely counter with Schilling, Arroyo and Lowe. How does the Anaheim lineup match up against the three very different starters?

Ceccarelli: It’s hard to say how the Angels will perform against Shilling, having only faced him once in the past. He did make them look pretty silly earlier this season in a game in Anaheim. Over his career he has done an excellent job of holding both Vlad Guerrero (.891 OPS vs. Shilling) and Jose Guillen (.235 OPS) in check- those are the only two Angels hitters he’s faced a substantial amount of times. Fortunately for Shilling, they’re also the core of the Angels’ lineup, so I’d say it bodes well for him.

As a team, the Angels tend to have a problem with pitchers with good off-speed stuff (guys like Jamie Moyer tend to tie them up in knots), so I would imagine that Arroyo has a pretty good shot. And I just don’t know about Lowe. The Angels have had good success off him in the past, and seeing as he doesn’t seem to be the same pitcher he was in those days, I like my boys’ chances. Although he has been on a bit of tear as of late, so who knows?

EGG: The return and dominance of Donnelly gives the Angels the best and deepest pen. They all strikeout hitters, rarely walk anyone and are stingy when it comes to the tall jack against all comers. Do Sox hitters have any hope? Do any of them have a weakness?

Ceccarelli: You’re right- the Angel’s bullpen can be downright un-hittable at times. In my opinion (I’m not just being a homer here) this is the best assemblage of arms I’ve ever seen. Everyone knows about K-Rod and Donnelly, but a lot of people sleep on Scot Shields, who’s probably one of the ten-best relievers in baseball. An let’s not forget Kevin Gregg, how is a more than serviceable long-man, and Percival has still got a little bit left.

I do see a couple of weaknesses however. First, Percival is clearly the weak-link here. His velocity is down, though he has shown that he can still be effective in the 92-94 MPH range. The problem is that his control has been wildly inconsistent at times, meaning he is no longer a premier Major League closer. Unfortunately it looks like he’s still cemented into that 9th inning role, no matter how rocky things get.

Also, as a unit, these guys have been working virtually non-stop for the last three seasons. Nearly 400 IP so far this season, on top of 500+ IP in 2003 and 450+ the year before. That’s a ton of innings, and the workload doesn’t look to be getting any lighter.

Now, the relief corps has seen quite a turnover in the last couple of seasons, so I’m not too overly worried about the wheels falling off. But if it did happen, I wouldn’t be shocked.

EGG: Thanks for the insight. It is appreciated. The Lowe game is going to be very interesting. He has been pitching better using his four-seam, curve and cutter more often. Lowe is actually striking hitters out again. Since the Sox will not be able to have their all glove infield (it appears Pokey will be rehabbing) and given your reply, Lowe should use his curve and cutter even more on Thursday. It should be a good series.

THE TIME IS NOW!

My buddy, Steve about a month ago at the Sox-O's double header said something like don't worry the Sox will go on a tear in August; check the schedule. Steve was right. The Sox beat the crap out of inferior clubs. Now with Anaheim and Texas coming to Fenway then three in Oaktown, the Sox have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and their three competitors for the Wild Card. A 6-3 record or better would make it difficult for the Wild Card to come out of the West, since the threesome are scheduled to beat up on one another the later half the September.And the Sox are positioned nicely to do just that - win each series.

The starters have been going deep into games and combined with large leads late has allowed the Pen Principals (Foulke, Embree, Timlin) to receive needed time off. Before this stretch, all three have felt the affects of being used often. The trio should be strong and used liberally over the next nine games.

The walking wounded appear to be getting healthy at the right time. Even though Nixon may be the only DL member to start regularly, Youkilis, Pokey, Kim and others can be very effective when used in the right situations. Everything seems to be heading in the right direction (knock on wood) giving the Sox a good shot at putting some distance between themselves and the West Wild Card contenders.

*******

MONEYBALL ORGANIZATION? PLEASE.

"Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys."
--Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"

Last week, the Sox signed 12th-round pick Mike Rozier, a southpaw from Henry County (Ga.) High, for $1.575 million bonus.

"We're excited about this," Boston scouting director David Chadd said. "We didn't have a first-round pick, but we value this guy as a first-round arm."

The Sox signed a first round arm for first round money and according to Bill James took a “stupid, stupid gamble.” It may just be "stupid" and not “stupid, stupid” since he was selected in the 12th-round and is less of a financial risk.

“Because Rozier is a two-sport athlete, draft rules allow the Red Sox to spread his bonus over a five-year period.”

Regardless, it is a risky, yet conventional transaction and surely not of the Moneyball philosophy: to exploit any inefficiencies in a finite market.

*******

QUESTIONABLE ACCOUNTING

In the two months since Henry offered his forecast, the Sox are averaging nearly a run more a game than they did in the first three months of the season (6.23 to 5.38). But even more striking is how prescient he was about the drop in unearned runs. From 60 unearned runs in the team's first 76 games, the Sox have allowed just 20 in their last 53 games, including just six in 27 games this month.

Gordon Edes throws this one out in today’s globe and reason for my post during lunch. The use of “more striking” indicates that the decrease in unearned runs is the primary reason for Sox improvement over their last 53 games. The notion is complete crap because both earned and unearned runs get posted on the scoreboard.

In the Sox first 76 games, the club gave up an average of 4.7 runs per game and in the last 53, the club has yielded 4.6 per outing. As you can see, the change in run prevention is not significant. With the data presented by Edes, one can only conclude that the increase in runs scored has had a bigger impact on the Sox record in the last 53 games than the decrease in unearned runs.

"AND THE BEAT GOES ON"

As you know, a strong performance was put in from Arroyo and company last evening. It was a solid text book win. Hopefully, D-Lowe can continue to have consisent mechanics tonight, as well as giving up on the notion that he can fool aggressive RHB with his back door slider. Anway, one blowout win this weekend will put the Pen Principals (Foulke, Timlin, Embree) in a good position for the HUGE series against the red-hot and surging Angels. Again, I'll have better content up next week.

TOO MANY POTS ON THE STOVE

I've got a lot to say on the Sox and not a lot of time to write so most of it will have to wait. Sorry folks. No writing last night. I saw Control Room instead. It is the best movie I have seen all year. The documentary itself is not anti-American/Iraq War; only the films main subjects. It is not a propaganda machine like Moore's 9-11. Moore’s worst work by far. Control Room takes a look at the tug of war relationship between the press and our military spokespeople, and how, given the media’s bias, presents that information to the public. It is a fascinating film, but you all aren’t interested in that.

Another reason is that I have been working on a few Q&A’s for next week. The interviews should be very good. Of course, other $hit has prevented me from writing too. I won't go into it because that will just sound like more liberal wining so I'll shut up. The Dems are doing enough of that recently.

Back to the Sox, Arroyo goes tonight at Fenway. I hope the club is not looking ahead. I sure am. I can't wait for the games against the Mickey Mouse Club, Texass and San Fran's a-hole. "Bring it on!"

KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE

I wanted to write about the pluses and minuses of Tampa’s willingness to promote 20 year-old top prospects to the Show, but I thought better of it. About three readers would have found it interesting and new El Guapo’s Ghost readers would likely not return. Maybe I could write a guest post for a D-Rays site, although I am not sure any have made it out into the blog-o-sphere so back to the Sox.

Big Poppi is 2 for his last 21, but it should be somewhat expected with 11 appearances against southpaws. Mo Light is horrible against LHP. This season, in 155 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting 239/309/413 and from 2001 to 2003, he is 213/265/413. With that being said, he still should not be strictly platooned. A day off against a tough lefty is okay. Burks would have been a nice option at DH and still could be one when rosters expand. Ortiz can learn to hit southpaws and given the Sox investment in Big Poppi, it is advantageous for the club to have Ortiz in the lineup.

Big Poppi likely has gotten less than 550 at-bats versus southpaws in his MLB career. Ortiz needs time to learn and adjust to battling lefties. This only comes through experience. Mo Light’s knowledge of the strikezone and ability to go the other way off the Wall makes him a good candidate to improve on his numbers over the next couple of seasons.

Tito should continue to pencil Ortiz into the lineup against all comers because the Sox do not have better alternatives, and plus the experience will help down the road.

WILL THE REAL DEE LOW, PLEASE STAND UP? PLEASE STAND UP.

Introduction
I decided to tape Sunday’s game so between commercial breaks I watched D-Lowe in slow-mo trying to analyze his outing. Below is my amateur, fan’s take on D-Lowe’s seven innings on Sunday.

Top of the 1st
The key for D-Lowe is his left/lead shoulder. If it stays closed, Lowe throws more over the top. If not, he comes more across his body causing a late release that usually results in his sinker sliding away from RHB. D-Lowe has to pound the strikezone to be effective.

Bottom of the 1st
D-Lowe takes the mound with a three run lead. He should be relaxed. Lowe's mechanics appear to be solid. He also has good velocity. The sinker is around 90 mph with a four seamer in the high 80's, which can be an effective pitch for D-Lowe. It changes the hitter's eye level during an at-bat. The hitter just can't look low for the sinker.

After getting the first two hitters, Lee hit a good ball that Cabrera could have turned and then D-Lowe got squeezed on two pitches in Konerko's at-bat leading to a walk. D-Lowe is not getting the call on the inside part of the plate to RHB. He will need to make an adjustment going forward. D-Lowe gets out of a high pitch count first with a great stop by Minky. Minky bailed D-Lowe out. He threw a change up in the middle of the plate that was crushed by Everett down the line. Later, we found out that Minky was playing Everett to pull. Positioning has a lot to do with a fielder’s perceived range.

Bottom of the 2nd
D-Lowe got just what the doctor ordered, a quick inning. He only needed eight pitches. The Other Sox hitters went up hacking. Joe Borchard went down swinging because he went hacking after two pitches in the same location that D-Lowe got squeezed on in the first. Borchard should have adjusted his game plan after watching the action in the first.

Whole half of the 3rd
Lowe's timing is off slightly with his front shoulder opening up too early. It is most notable walking Rowand. He got away with it against Lee with him hitting a solid liner to the right field track. Thankfully, he found his mechanics against Konkero and got out of the inning.

Bottom of the 4th
D-Lowe looked great by getting ahead of each hitter. He got two strikes on them all. The fourth was a breeze.

Second half the 5th
D-Lowe has mixed in the curveball a little more. Opps, he made one mistake and left a sinker up that Konerko did not miss. After reviewing the pitch, it was a backdoor slider/cutter that never was off the plate so it ended up in the middle of the plate that Konerko hit into the bleachers. Now, the Other Sox are only down by one. The game just got a lot tighter. Let's see how D-Lowe responds.

Bottom of the 6th
Lowe continues to get ahead of the hitters resulting in three ground ball outs. It was a great, quick, prototypical D-Lowe kind of inning. His mechanics still appear to be solid and he is pounding the strikezone.

Final inning of the evening
In the seventh, Lowe was cruising along. Rowand got a cheapie with a chopper finding the hole between third and short. Lowe then makes the same mistake to Lee that he threw to Konerko in the fifth - a backdoor slider/cutter that tails over the heart of the plate. Unfortunately, the mistake yielded the same result, a dinger, giving the Other Sox the lead.

Lowe should consider not throwing that pitch against aggressive RHB, most notably, power guys that like to extend their arms. Patient hitters may take it since it starts off as a borderline pitch, but aggressive hitters with two strikes will be swinging. The margin for error is small and if the pitch misses and doesn’t hit the corner, it gets hit hard and far.

Conclusion
Lowe made four poor pitches all night, but they were all against the Other Sox best and power hitters. He got away with two but the other two killed Lowe. Better pitch selection and/or execution would have produced a gem of an outing for D-Lowe. D-Lowe has almost “turned the corner.” ($hit, I hope that has not been trademarked by W, yet.)

FOCUS PEOPLE. FOCUS.

It is unlikely that the Sox will get within three games of the MFY prior to their weekend series in the beautiful, if you like dirty streets, vacant shop fronts with drugs widely available, Bronx. The MFY don’t play one club over 500 until they face off against the Sox in 26 days; nearly a month will pass. (I am not counting the Indians that have lost seven in a row. They will be under 500 shortly.)

Over this recent slide, the MFY lost to the hottest pitcher, Johan Santana, and another one in Brad Radke. They also lost a game that Loaiza started and if things go as planned for the MFY, those instances will be very infrequent for the remainder of the season.

The silver lining in all of this for the Sox is that both Vazquez and Mussina are struggling. Brown’s shoulder, elbow, big toe or pinky could go at anytime. El Duker’s deal with the devil is only good through the regular season (the devil, in movies, always gets the sucker on the fine print). The MFY can’t win in the playoffs without two starters pitching well.

As for the Sox, their playoff chances still hinge on the nine games against the West that start next Tuesday because even with the Sox recent winning streak, they do not have a comfortable lead.

BOS 70-52
OAK 70-53
TEX 69-53
ANA 70-54

Everyone in the Nation is going to be calling me a pessimist, which is accurate, but I am also a pragmatist. Let’s Keep the Faith and a Level Head. Well, that's the advice my Shrink has been tossing around during our sessions.

MUST READ BLOG

ATHLETICS NATION has an interview with Billy Beane posted. Beane let's loose. "I’ve got a full forum, you interviewed me and this is my chance. This is an A’s Web log, so I can say whatever the heck I want." Beane understands the beauty of the blog.

SUSPENSIONS

The hearings of Tek, Kapler and Nixon are on August 26 to appeal their suspensions stemming from the fist-a-cuffs with the MFY. A ruling on the appeals will likely be handed down in the following days after the trial. Thus, the threesome will likely sit out during the most critical stretch of the season - the nine games against Anaheim, Texas and Oakland.

Nixon is a non-issue. He should try and get his suspension reduced, but it is inconsequential. The Sox can just activate him sometime after September 1st, when rosters expand, and then Trot can serve his suspension while still recovering from his injury. He is unlikely to be ready on September 1st by all accounts. Tek and Kapler are different stories.

Kapler should appeal the ruling. If there is justice in the world, then his time will be reduced. Hopefully, Kapler can serve his time after rosters expand so it would not hurt the club much at all. If not, the trade for Roberts decreases the need for Kapler’s fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner attributes. Loosing Kapler for one to two games is not a going to impact the Sox playoff chances.

On the other hand, the Sox brass along with Tek should rethink appealing MLB's original decision. The Sox, similar to the Ortiz situation, can find the best time for Tek to sit out his four games. The alternative is Tek missing time during the crucial nine against the left coast teams.

If Tek began serving his suspension on Tuesday, August 24th with Wake as the scheduled starter, he would essentially miss three games. The Sox would bring up Andy Dominique to backup Whole Bellie and designate Ricky Gutierrez for assignment. Potentially loosing Gutierrez is not meaningful with Bellhorn on a rehab assignment and Pokey participating in baseball activities.

Due to the scheduled starters, the Sox would not loose much with Whole Bellie catching those three games. The Sox would likely want Tek playing against Toronto’s Josh Towers, but in the second game in Detroit versus Jason Johnson Whole Bellie would likely get the start. Tek’s 28 battles with J.J. begin to have some significance when the hitting line is only 143/226/143 - advantage Bellie. Southpaw Mike Maroth is schedule to go after J.J. Tek hits lefties well, but so does Bellie to a tune of 295/365/577 from 01-03. The game against Maroth is a wash; as is for the total of the three games. It is advantageous for Tek to drop his suspension next Tuesday. The club needs him more against the better wild card contending clubs from out West.

Game Notes

• And what would a Red Sox game be without one of Dale Sveum's gaffs, which are fast becoming the Sox' equivalent of those Lenny and Squiggy entrances on Laverne & Shirley: You know it's coming, it's just a question of when.

• Up by four with three outs to go is not a critical situation warranting Foulke’s attention. Considering Foulke pitched in the last two games, Tito made a bad call. He could have had a fully rested Foulke for all three games in Chicago.

LADY LUCK TURNED AND SMILED

Gordon Edes in a mail bag speaks to the Sox difficulties in one-run games.

…beginning play Monday, the Red Sox had the worst record in one-run games (8-17)…Every other playoff contender in the AL has a winning record in one-run games; the Indians despite a bullpen that had more blown saves than saves, had 22 one-run wins, as many as the White Sox and three more than the Yankees. Does this mean Terry Francona is being outmanaged by, among others, Joe Torre, Eric Wedge and Ozzie Guillen, not to mention Grady Little, who last season guided the Sox to a 26-16 record in one-run games? That might be your first conclusion.

But the numbers crunchers, including Bill James, will tell you that luck and randomness are significant factors in one-run outcomes [emphasis EGG], and it's not hard to find some support for that conclusion. For example, last season, the Toronto Blue Jays were 10 games over .500, but were just 14-23 in one-run games. This season, they're 14-15 in one-run games, but began play Monday 20 games under .500. Felipe Alou is widely regarded as one of the game's best managers, and last season his Giants were 28-12 in one-run games. This season, they're 15-19; did Alou suddenly become a worse manager? How 'bout the Cubs? Under Dusty Baker, they were 27-17 in one-run games last season; this season it's 15-19. This might be the best example of all. Last season, the Braves were just 17-25 in one-run games, and yet won 101 games overall. How does the Braves' record in one-run games reflect on Bobby Cox's managerial abilities? My answer: Not at all. And the same may be true for Terry Francona, too.

The Sox were fortunate last evening that Cabrera’s ball did not take the usual trajectory – downward – when coming off the Monster. As noted by Jerry Remy and company, the ball floating up, after bouncing off the top of the new metal scoreboard, gave Damon the extra time to beat the throw home and score from first. If that ball hits off the old scoreboard or any other part of the Monster, Damon likely doesn’t score the game winner. Other than Roberts, no other player is fast enough to beat the throw too.

The stars were aligned for the Old Town Team to score the game winner on that play. The Sox were “all in” and made their straight flush draw on the river to beat the Jays four aces last night. The Red Sox magic is back and it will last until November this year!

RED SOX TRIPLE PLAY

Finally Foulke

As the season winds down, he can expect to be working like this more often. Asked how often he could pitch multiple innings, Foulke said, "It depends how fluid I am. If I'm doing things well mechanically, I can do it, no doubt."

Yesterday, I advocated for Tito to pitch Foulke more than just the ninth inning with the lead. As we know, Foulke was brought on in the eighth with the Sox up by only one run with the top of the Jays lineup ready to stroll up to the plate. Tito used his relief ace perfectly, and then funked it up.

In the bottom of the eighth, the Sox pounded out three more runs. After Damon’s triple putting the club up by three, Myers and Mendoza or Adams should have been warming up. Myers should have begun the ninth to face Hinske with Mendoza or Adams as his backup. There is no need to waste Foulke when the club is up by three runs with the bottom of the order due up and only three outs are necessary for the win. Even the worst of pitchers have a difficult time giving up two runs in an inning or an E.R.A. of 18.00. If you believe, which I do not, in the theory that the last three outs are the toughest to get no matter what, then Mendoza or Adams would have been sufficient. Mendoza saved games on and off for the MFY and Adams periodically closed for the Cubs. Tito wasted an inning of Foulke. Foulke has to pitch the most critical innings the rest of the season. Yesterday's ninth was not one of them.

Back to the Future

Lowe struck out seven (matching his season high), including the side in the third inning. He threw 103 pitches, 68 for strikes. He walked only one and hit the one batter.

Lowe mowed them down like it was 2000. It has been at least two years since I have witnessed that much late movement, causing swing and misses, from DLowe. Even if this kind of stuff isn’t with him every outing, it appears that Lowe’s mechanics and control issues are behind him. A solid six innings of pounding the strike zone with that sinker will be a boost for this club.

Minky at second

275/366/407 hitters at second base provide value for a club. Hitters that slug 407 as a LHB while playing their home games at the Metrodome (327 down the RF line and 367 R-C gap) don’t provide much over a replacement level hitter player at first. If Minky can move right on the defensive spectrum, it makes him a more valuable asset for the Red Sox. Of course, some issues are present as well.

1. Minky will need a spring training at second for everyone to feel comfortable.

2. The Sox already have a regular second baseman, Mark Bellhorn, and a backup, Bill Mueller (assuming his very reasonable option at $2.1 million is picked up), for next season.

3. Minky will earn $4.2 million ($3.75 salary + .45 buyout) in 2005.

Even though Minky’s versatility causes another log jam - 2B and 3B - to go along with the 1B/DH/LF one, it provides Theo with more options for the future.

STOP THE BULL ABOUT THE PEN

Theo and Tito have been advocating from day one that Foulke would pitch multiple innings, come in with the score tied and even with the Sox down one run. Before yesterday's pre-game radio interviews, the couple once again did shots from the Bill James Bullpen Efficiency Kool-Aid (boy that is a mouth full). Although, no one would have known seeing Timlin come in after Embree in the eighth on Sunday. I believe Foulke wasn't even warming up.

All indications are that Foulke wants to pitch more too. Briefly at the start of the season, Foulke was used in non-traditional closer's situations. So why isn't this happening now, Tito and Theo? And when is the mainstream media going to question the T-couple on not practicing what they have preached? It appears that Edes, McAdam, Silverman and company are following in the footsteps of the Wimpy White House Press Corps.

It is certainly the best time to fully implement the relief ace concept. It can be sold to the masses. The loss of Williamson and the recent inconsistency from Embree and Timlin should suffice as support for using Foulke in non-traditional closer situations. Now is the perfect time to fully implement the relief ace concept. It is the most productive way to run a bullpen.

Other Notes

• "This Fanny is for Manny" t-shirts are quite hilarious and ludicrous.

• Why is Red Sox Nation so pissed at Carl Everett? He always played hard and put up decent numbers. I guess you could fault him for playing hurt and getting suspended. I am forgetting something else?

• Jayson Stark explains the August waiver/trade rules.

“THOSE WHO DON’T LEARN FROM HISTORY ARE DOOMED TO REPEAT IT”

Dave Sing me a Song Sveum wanted to test Rocco’s arm again. This guy is a joke.

"It was kind of a wide turn and I told Dale that after I came in," Varitek said. "I should have been able to score and I've scored a lot on that ball. But Rocco's throwing the ball extremely well."

Does Sveum know that…

Of Baldelli's nine assists, which lead American League center fielders, four have come against the Red Sox within the last 10 days. He led the league last year with 14.

I guess not or he is too stupid to apply the knowledge to the situation.

It is not surprising to that Tito came to Sing me a Song Sveum’s defense…

"Every third base coach runs through these stretches,"

I don’t recall Mike Cubbage going through any bad stretches.


Ichiro Quick Slap Hits

• I could not agree more with Will Carroll of BP: Young pitchers are simply a crapshoot. If I were a GM, I'd either draft a load of them, figuring that I could get a certain percentage through or I'd shun them entirely, filling my roster with college survivors, minor-league free agents, and veteran hurlers who had proven themselves. That, or I'd hire that guy who wrote Saving The Pitcher and see how well it works in the real world. - I would only add that club economics plays apart of your team’s strategy as well. Small market teams can’t afford to go out and sign a #1 starter. They have to develop him.

• I hate to see Junior injured again. He was my favorite non-Red Sox player back in my school days. The Reds should have read EGG and tried to shop Griffey to the MFY. Now, Junior is going nowhere without his okay. I hope the Reds, for their fans not ownership, have that Ben Affleck insurance on Junior's contract. “The one that pays you cash, which is just as good as money.”

• I think it is a good sign that Seth Myers from SNL won Celebrity Poker Showdown while wearing a 1986 Boston Red Sox A.L. Champs t-shirt and donating the $100,000 winnings to the Jimmy Fund.

• The Phish concert is to Vermont as the DNC was to Boston. The Phish show will be double the size of Vermont’s largest city. Even though it is 2 hours away, I am heading to Boston this weekend hoping tomorrow's game doesn't get rained out.


Questions

• How great is Little League Baseball? How not so great is all of the media coverage?

• What are the Olympics?

• Debbie and Tracy Lord picked up their new car from Saturn yesterday. Is it that Tracy Lord?

NAP TIME

The best thing, other than the win itself, was that the Relief Trio (Foulke, Embree, Timlin) did not have to work last night. Being in the middle of a sixteen game stretch and coming back after the season’s longest road stint, the rest for the R.T. could prove to be a factor with Williamson unlikely to return soon. The R.T. have been used often even with the acquisitions of Adams and Myers. The rotation might benefit from an extra day off as well.

Due to Lowe’s blister and Schilling’s loss of velocity, the Sox could get a boost by pushing the starters back a day after Wake tomorrow. If Terry Adams does not pitch in the next couple of days, he should be able to start on Saturday. Like Mendoza, Adams been in nearly every role throughout his career. He can give the Sox five or six solid innings.

After the Adams start, Leskanic could come off the DL if the Sox brass is concerned about pen depth. But bringing back Leskanic before rosters expand and prior to Bellhorn or Pokey’s returns causes a 25-man roster jam. The player that should come off the 25-man is Gutierrez, but that would leave the club without an emergency short stop for at least two weeks. Mendoza, Adams, or Myers could come down with the sniffles until September 1st.

Anyway, the news on Leskanic is encouraging. Even though Leskanic can be erratic, he’s an arm out of the pen that misses bats. With Williamson out and Embree’s declining K rate, the pen is without a power strikeout pitcher. With runners on, a pitcher who can strike men out stands a better chance of not allowing those inherited runners from scoring.

• I am an a$$hole. I knew it was going to be Millar Time! Told you so. Millar’s stats are similar to last season’s and he is knocking the crap out of the ball after the break to the tune of 395/457/691. “Millar” should be written on the lineup card everyday until he cools down, Tito.

• However, the ability to produce players who can make a positive contribution to a winning team, even at a low level, is a hallmark of the Angels' player development staff. The bullpen, filled with homegrown right-handed arms, is where this has had the greatest impact, but the lineup and bench have benefitted as well. How many teams will miss the playoffs this season--or spend millions of extra dollars--because their farm system can't produce a Robb Quinlan or a Kevin Gregg? - Baseball Prospectus’ Triple Play is speaking about the Sox. Kapler and Mirabelli are perfect examples; Embree and Timlin to a lesser extent. It would be great if Pawtucket had a power strikeout arm, like K-Rod, Jessie Crain, or Jairo Garica, that could be brought up instead of acquiring retreads like Leskanic, Adams, or Myers. The Sox will not be considered a well run organization until more Kevin Youkilis-es make an impact at the MLB level.

GUESS WHO?

2004 - AVG/OBP/SLG
Player X - 250/355/364
Player Y - 251/340/362

The above two players both play the same position and are putting up very similar lines so far this season. Below are their scouting reports by STATS from ESPN.COM with a few modifications:


X is a line-drive hitter who covers the entire plate with his smooth X swing. He hits the ball where it's pitched and stays back well on breaking balls. It sounds strange to say, but X is one of the best contact hitters in baseball-when he goes after a pitch, he rarely misses it. One of his greatest assets is his batting eye, which enables him to draw a good number of walks and work himself into hitters' counts.

A line-drive hitter with gap power, Y lacks the home-run pop... Yet he's one of the toughest outs…, exhibiting excellent patience and knowledge of the strike zone. Y was the only ABC regular who had more walks than strikeouts last season. He has a quick bat and hits well against both lefthanders and righthanders.

X is one of the best defensive ABC in the majors, and was rewarded with his third Gold Glove last year. He isn't flashy, so his reputation has taken a while to catch up. He simply makes all the plays and makes them look easy. Few are better at scooping low throws, and he catches every foul pop that can be caught. He doesn't have the speed to be any sort of factor on the bases, but he knows his limitations and hardly ever makes a poor gamble.

Y's greatest asset is his defensive work at ABC. He has a superb glove, quick reflexes and gets…to foul balls with quickness that belies his actual running ability. Y’s running speed is average, at best, but he's a heady player who knows when to take the extra base.


Even the two players’ scouting reports from STATS sound the same. They even play the same position first base. Both have been recently acquired by playoff contending clubs.

If you don’t know by now, Player X is John Olerud and Player Y is Doug Mientkiewicz. The two major differences between the players is age, Olerud is 36 and Minky 30, and salary commitments, Olerud is being paid the minimum by the MFY and Minky is owed one-third of his $2.8 million salary in 2004 and $4.2 million due in 2005. Which light hitting defensive wizard at first would you rather have your club?

It’s a no brainer, John Olerud. He costs about $5 million less for a similar level of production. Oh yeah, a guy named Nomah left town in the deal for Minky and the Sox roster already consisted of Millar, McCarty, and Ortiz. How many first baseman does a team need?

EVERYONE TAKE A FEW DEEP BREATHS AND…

stop taking the doom and gloom pills that of the Boston media pass out on a daily basis. It ain’t so bad.

Playoff Standings – the Top Two Play in October

Oak – 63-48
Ana – 62-50
Tex – 60-50
Bos – 60-50

There is reason to believe - the Sox are only a game out of a playoff spot.

The fact of the matter is that this season has been inexplicably strange for Boston. A season full of hope turned to a season full of what-ifs. What if they had stayed healthy? What if Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe had pitched up to expectations? What if they knew how to use Foulke? What if they could hit with the bases loaded? What if their pitchers didn't fall apart every time somebody made an error?

And despite all the what-ifs, the Red Sox somehow find themselves just two games back in the wild card race. All of those what-ifs can't keep going against them all season, can they? They've survived four months of weirdness and still have a shot at the playoffs, and the fact that they've had to deal with all this crap must mean that they'll surge ahead if the crap goes away, right?

Ben Jacobs assement of the Red Sox season is dead on. I could not have said it better myself. Even though 20% of the Opening Day roster is on the DL, the club is in a good position to make the postseason. It might be the best time to have the JV team on the field with the lightwieghts on the schedule for the rest of the month. Hopefully, everyone will be healthy when Anaheim, Texas and Oakland are up.

A Few Weekend Leftovers

• As a salute to Rick James, I wore my “I’m Rick James, Bitch” t-shirt out on Friday night.

• Entourage is starting to grow on me due to Jeremy Piven and wanting the life of a movie star or one of his buddies, but the jury is still out on the show's entertainment value.

NEWS, NOTES, LINKS, AND RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM THE WEEKEND

• Indeed, Cubbage , who succeeded Gene Lamont, helped restore order to the third base coaching box after Wendell Kim's tumultuous tenure. The problem was, the Sox wanted coaches who were more energetic about working with players in practice and instructing them on and off the field. – The Sox treated their best third base coach in recent times like $hit and now we have Sing me a Song Sveum.

• The FCC is finally doing some good. No DJ patter or jingles, no contests or pledge drives. No commercials. Just music. - What a freaking concept!

• If my memory is correct, part of the reason for dealing and not giving the 300 hitting Tony Womack a shot in the spring was that the medical folks had little confidence in his reconstructed elbow. Another great diagnosis from Dr. Morgan and his staff - Lyon, Nomar, Nixon...

• Speaking of St. Louis SS, the Cards might be renting Renteria after the trade for Larry Walker and adding $5 million to next year’s payroll.

• Speaking of Walker, if the Sox were really concerned about who would bat in the five hole, Theo would have claimed the All-Star.

• Freedom of the Press?

• Another great article by Alan Schwartz for the New York Times on the tools clubs and fans can use to better evaluate relief pitchers.

• As you know by now, Mike Myers eats up LHB over his career with his side are delivery but he has not had the same level of success so far this season.

• Adelphia High Definition DVR is the bomb!

• We can cure sad old man limp dickness with not just one but several competing pills but there's jack shit for a sore throat like Manny’s? Priorities people. F*cking priorities here.

• But now they're back home. Where they're 33-18. Where they'll be playing the next 20 of 26. Simply put, the time to switch to "ass kick" mode would be now. - Yes, I do believe "it is about that time to break forth the rythem and the rhyme" at Fenway.

Due to my overindulgence of Shed last evening and morning meetings today, this is going to be a short post.

It is time for the Sox to take off and it appears that the team NOW has its collective heads on straight.

When the Red Sox were in Minnesota last weekend, Manny Ramirez went into Terry Francona's office and suggested that the club was "(expletive) around too much." Francona agreed, Manny went down to first in 4.2 second in every at-bat for the weekend and made a spectacular catch Tuesday in St. Petersburg.

The club needs to win 14 out of the next 23 games against inferior opponents. It is possible with fourteen at home. The time is now for the Sox because at the end of August begins a critical nine game stretch versus Anaheim, Texas, and Oakland.

LINKS OF INTEREST

NESNYES?
The New York Post reports that the management of the two teams are in discussions about merging their two regional sports cable networks -- Yankees Entertainment & Sports Network (YES), and the New England Sports Network (NESN).

The paper said that a combination would give the new merged network better clout in ad sales and negotiations on a per-subscriber fees paid by cable operators.

It certainly would increase their clout and our cost for cable.

SOX WILL PAY FOR A PART OF THE NEW MFY STADIUM
With his recently revealed plan to build a new $750 million stadium in the Bronx, though, Steinbrenner may have hit upon the biggest scam of his life. If the early reports of the plan to tear down the House That Reggie Remodeled and replace it with a new one across the street are accurate, Steinbrenner looks to have figured out a way to build a new playpen for the Yankees, replete with extra luxury suites and food courts and all the other gewgaws that he's been slavering after for decades...and force baseball's other 29 teams to pay nearly half the cost.

(We now pause for Larry Lucchino's head to explode.)

DOOLITTLE ON PITCHERS THAT CAN’T MISS BATS
Some manage to win without strikeouts

BUT OF COURSE
Boston is named the best sports town by Sporting News.

A MONSTER IS DEVELOPING
Paul DePodesta may not currently be the most popular man in LA, but given time, that will change. DePodesta is building a monster.

Vinay Kumar analyzes the transactions of the DePo for Hardball Times. The Dodgers are only going to get stronger in the offseason too.

JFK LIKE

I didn’t mean to be J.F. Kerry-esque. The post did ramble on and my two points apparently got lost in all of it.

My first point was to call out the Sox on the spin. They did not make this deal to sure up the club in the field. It is only what they received. The major motivation for the deal was that they feared Nomar was not going to play much over the next two months and that he demanded a trade (I know this part is in question but this is from the club’s perspective). We do not hear anything from the team about the improved defense now. The defensive angle was a smoke screen.

Second, Theo and the Trio should have called Nomar’s bluff regarding the extent of his injury (this is a HUGE assumption on my part and I certainly could be wrong but my guess is that Nomar plays nearly everyday for the Cubs). Due to the questions about his health and ability to produce on the field, Nomar has to play 50 games to prove to the market that he is worthy of a Tejada type of contract. The Sox did not have the willingness to call Nomar. Similar to the A-Hole deal, the Sox brass did not take a chance. No risk can equal no reward.

To answer a few specific questions from Lando Cabrissian's Ghost:

1. If Nomar rejected arbitration, the Sox would collect at least one if not two first round picks. These picks do not have to make it to the majors to be successful. Minor league prospects can be used as prime trade bait as well.

2. The Sox were only 19-18 in games that Nomar appeared, BUT in those games the Sox outscored their opponents by 63 runs (108 runs scored versus 45 runs against). Nomar was a big apart of that run disparity. He hit 321/367/500 while scoring 24 runs and knocking in 21.

3. Defense does not necessarily win championships. I thought I demonstrated that with the mixed bag of glove work among the most recent world champs. Once you are in the playoffs, a significant part of the outcome is determined by just plain luck (wild card winners, bone head managers, Tejada’s base running, bloop hit off of Rivera, M’s 116 win season, Jeffery Maier, etc.). To get there a club first needs hitting and pitching then defense. Defense/glove work is secondary because there are common baseball outcomes (HR, BB, K) that impact the game that do not involve the fielders. In most cases, finding gold gloves should be a lesser concern than hitting skills in making player acquisition decisions, which is why I feel this was a bad deal.

NOMAH FIVE IS NO MORE

I have a love hate relationship with Nomar. I loved the fact that he could get to the ball in the hole between third and short, but I hated that it was coin flip on if his throw would hit a fan in the fist row. I loved the fact that no pitcher could sneak a first pitch fastball past Nomie, but I hated that many times it resulted in foul ball putting him behind in the count. I love the high batting average, but hated that his OBP was only 40 points higher. I could go on and on about my mixed feeling about Nomah, but my opinion on this trade is unwavering - Theo and the Trio made a horrible deal.

Basically, the Sox traded Nomar and a promising $1 million signing bonus hitter drafted as compensation for Cliff Floyd, Matt Murton, for Orlando Cabrera. The Twins would have given Mientkiewicz away for a PTBNL or cash considerations. Minky was a throw in to make this deal palatable for the Nation allowing Theo to sell the notion that this deal was completed to improve the Sox defense. I actually like Minky but Terry Ryan and company's difficulty evaluating the readiness of their many past, present and future young OF/1B/DH types caused the Twins to overpay for Minky ($7 million over two seasons) significantly decreasing his value.

"We might have gotten to the World Series," said Epstein. "But in my mind, we weren't going to win the World Series with this defense.”

C'mon. A team that wins the pennant can't get lucky in the field to win four out of the next seven. Give me a break. A club does not have to be great in the field to win. Last year's champs had a defense efficiency rating of .6925, Anaheim in 2002 had a rating of .7193, Zona's was .7026 in their championship season and the MFY in 2000 were at .6927. It is a mixed bag. A good defensive club is not a prerequisite for winning a World Series.

Epstein labeled the team's defense "a flaw which potentially could have turned into a fatal flaw. We had completely unacceptable defense, for a number of reasons, including injuries," Epstein said.

Theo mentions injuries as a reason for the poor defensive efficiency rating of .6842 this season. Thus, it stands to reason that with the returns of Nomar, Mueller, Nixon and Pokey that the overall team performance in the field would improve. It may even get higher than last season's team rating of .6862. The same club that was one brain fart away from the pennant.

"Why, if we were leading the league in runs scored and ERA, did we play .500 ball for three months?"

Because in May, June and July the Sox went 5-10 in one-run games. Theo and the Trio know that luck is the biggest factor in determining the outcome in one-run games. The Sox did commit errors in seven out the ten losses, but they also made three booboos in three out of the five wins. Defensive miscues were not a definitive factor in the Sox poor record in one-run games over the last three months. The Sox were just unlucky and the front office knows it.

The Sox defense will improve with Cabrera, Reese and Minky are on the field, but it will not impact run prevention to the degree that it will significantly impact the standings. The pitching staff has been designed, with the exception of Lowe, to rely little on infield defense. This is a strikeout fly ball rotation. The need for D-fence is a smoke screen. Theo's notion that the Red Sox were "not going to win a World Series with the defense the way it was" is unfounded and thus substantiates the rumors that Nomar and associates may have orchestrated the deal to the Cubbies.

Assuming the rumors - Nomar was not healthy enough to play everyday for Boston - are true, then Theo and the Trio got on their knees and accommodated the moody future HOF shortstop by shipping him to Wrigleyville. They gave into Nomar's implied threat that he would not routinely play ball for the Sox and that would likely become an even bigger distraction for the club. The Sox brass should have called Nomar's bluff.

After a sub-par end to 2003, lingering questions about the after affects of his wrist injury, and declining defensive ability, Nomar had to play to answer any and all questions regarding his worth for this winter. Only a few clubs could theoretically meet Nomar’s demand of $15+ million per and with questions about his ability to consistently produce on the field, Nomar had to play. In any uniform, Nomar would have played at least 50 games. Not playing would have been contrary to his objective – score a big payday like the other top shortstops over the winter.

It is ironic that the only two decisions I thoroughly disagree with the Henry Administration on involved Nomar. The first momentary lack of guts occurred last winter when a few of million a year stood in the way of the Sox trading for the best all around player in the game. Since the combined net worth of Henry and Werner is likely at least a billion, an extra $3 million a year for A-Hole would have cost the pair roughly .3% of their net worth. Apparently going into their own pockets was not an option, which is okay, but how about just raising ticket prices by $1 across the board. The small move would have raised the additional $3 million needed for A-Hole. It is safe to say that an extra buck would not have depressed ticket sales. Theo and the Trio did not have the guts to make the A-Hole deal or stand up and call Nomar’s bluff.

The Sox can spin the trade as a critical defensive upgrade, but an analysis of Theo’s own words and the facts tell a difference story. The move was completed to primarily appease Nomar for the good of team chemistry. I am not smart enough to know if a more cohesive clubhouse rather than a 300/340/500 shortstop gives the Sox a better shot at the postseason, but I do know that Theo and the Trio have gone from nearly having the best SS since the Great Depression to a future HOF to Orlando Cabrera. It is a bit of a drop off over only eight months. No matter how often you put that through the spin cycle, it still isn’t clean and pretty.

SLOW METABOLISM

I need another day to fully digest “the deal.” On the other trade the Sox made over the weekend - Dave Roberts for Henri Stanley is a nice move to help the club now. Stanley was a waiver claim from Houston so the Sox gave up virtually nothing for the speedy outfielder. Roberts’ biggest value is that he provides Tito the opportunity to make foolish late inning pinch running decisions that will infuriate me sometime soon. If used correctly, Roberts’ ability to steal a base is valuable in close games – the ones the Sox continue to drop. He also provides further outfield insurance with Nixon on the DL for the foreseeable future.