Saturday, September 19, 2009
BIG BOY LEAGUE (A.K.A. AMERICAN LEAGUE) PLAYOFF PREVIEW
Back in 2007, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry determined that a power pitching staff, a good closer and defensive clubs won more playoff games. They measured it, as BP still does by using normalized strikeout rate, WXRL and FRAA rankings.
As it stands through 9/17 games, the A.L. score and rankings are as follows for the four playoff teams:
MFY - 13 - 1
SOX - 26 - 4
DET - 28 - 5
LAA - 45 - 13
I believe that FRAA rankings does not consider park effects and I'm suspect of all individual defensive metrics, so I'm substituting James Click's (now TB Rays staffer) PADE or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to account for a good glove club. After making that change only LAA's ranking varied significantly.
MFY - 17 - 3
SOX - 24 - 4
DET - 28 - 6
LAA - 45 - 21
LAA is clearly now the weakest likely playoff team in the A.L. Thankfully, it looks like out Sox will take them on in the ALDS (knock on wood).
Playing off of Silver and Perry's research and analysis, my theory is: In the playoffs, a team is facing the best pitchers and by definition they make fewer mistakes - less walks and balls hit hard. A lineup is also likely dealing with the best team defenses, even more so as they get further into October, so stringing together hits will be tough. Hence, the best way to score is by the long-ball. The more hitters that can take advantage of the few mistakes thrown have the best chance of putting crooked numbers on the score board.
Any hitter with twelve or more home runs was counted as a player with the ability to deposit a ball in the bleachers. After crunching the numbers, we get the following rankings:
MFY - 1
SOX - 3
DET - 6
LAA - 20
The MFY rise to the top of the pack again as they can write in a lineup with power one through nine. The Sox and LAA each move up a spot and the Tigers stay put at six.
Without knowing which teams will play in the three starter series, I would put the A.L. pennant odds at:
MFY - 1:1
SOX - 1.5:1
DET - 2:1
LAA - 3.5:1
Back in 2007, Nate Silver and Dayn Perry determined that a power pitching staff, a good closer and defensive clubs won more playoff games. They measured it, as BP still does by using normalized strikeout rate, WXRL and FRAA rankings.
As it stands through 9/17 games, the A.L. score and rankings are as follows for the four playoff teams:
MFY - 13 - 1
SOX - 26 - 4
DET - 28 - 5
LAA - 45 - 13
I believe that FRAA rankings does not consider park effects and I'm suspect of all individual defensive metrics, so I'm substituting James Click's (now TB Rays staffer) PADE or Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to account for a good glove club. After making that change only LAA's ranking varied significantly.
MFY - 17 - 3
SOX - 24 - 4
DET - 28 - 6
LAA - 45 - 21
LAA is clearly now the weakest likely playoff team in the A.L. Thankfully, it looks like out Sox will take them on in the ALDS (knock on wood).
Playing off of Silver and Perry's research and analysis, my theory is: In the playoffs, a team is facing the best pitchers and by definition they make fewer mistakes - less walks and balls hit hard. A lineup is also likely dealing with the best team defenses, even more so as they get further into October, so stringing together hits will be tough. Hence, the best way to score is by the long-ball. The more hitters that can take advantage of the few mistakes thrown have the best chance of putting crooked numbers on the score board.
Any hitter with twelve or more home runs was counted as a player with the ability to deposit a ball in the bleachers. After crunching the numbers, we get the following rankings:
MFY - 1
SOX - 3
DET - 6
LAA - 20
The MFY rise to the top of the pack again as they can write in a lineup with power one through nine. The Sox and LAA each move up a spot and the Tigers stay put at six.
Without knowing which teams will play in the three starter series, I would put the A.L. pennant odds at:
MFY - 1:1
SOX - 1.5:1
DET - 2:1
LAA - 3.5:1
0 Old Comments:
Thank you - Red Sox!
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