Monday, September 21, 2009
THREESOME: PATS, REVISED A.L. PENNANT ODDS, BRUINS
* Where were the screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Jets pass rush? Unless Brady changed the play at the line, the Pats were out coached. Those words aren’t uttered too often. How much does that get factored into next week’s Free NFL picks?
* With the Twins back in the hunt - Baseball Prospectus has them at roughly a 17.6% shot at playing baseball beyond October 4th – my A.L. pennant odds are now: Twins 7.5to 1 and the Tigers 2.5:1. The Tigers line was discounted since they have a significant (17.6%) chance of not playing more than 162 in 2009. The Twins ranked 22nd - slightly behind LAA – but their probability of winning the pennant takes a nose dive with only 17.6% of getting to the second season. In summary, my odds for MLB baseball betting on the A.L. pennant are: MFY - 1:1, SOX - 1.5:1, DET - 2.5:1, LAA - 3.5:1, MIN - 7.5:1. Things will change when the schedule and pitching match ups are finalized.
* The questionable move was not trading Kessel. The Bruins appear to have gotten good value for the young sniper. The debatable transaction was giving Tim Thomas $20 million for his age 35-38 seasons. Kessel or Thomas was getting that salary cap space. The Bruins must have concluded that they are close to a Cup and Kessel’s production is less costly to replace than Thomas’. With Krejci, Ryder, Wheeler, and Kobasew on the right side of 30 plus Savard, the B’s have a good shot. It is just painful to trade another young goal scorer because since 1970 only five out of 39 championship teams did not have two or more players score 30 plus goals.
* Where were the screen passes and draw plays to slow down the Jets pass rush? Unless Brady changed the play at the line, the Pats were out coached. Those words aren’t uttered too often. How much does that get factored into next week’s Free NFL picks?
* With the Twins back in the hunt - Baseball Prospectus has them at roughly a 17.6% shot at playing baseball beyond October 4th – my A.L. pennant odds are now: Twins 7.5to 1 and the Tigers 2.5:1. The Tigers line was discounted since they have a significant (17.6%) chance of not playing more than 162 in 2009. The Twins ranked 22nd - slightly behind LAA – but their probability of winning the pennant takes a nose dive with only 17.6% of getting to the second season. In summary, my odds for MLB baseball betting on the A.L. pennant are: MFY - 1:1, SOX - 1.5:1, DET - 2.5:1, LAA - 3.5:1, MIN - 7.5:1. Things will change when the schedule and pitching match ups are finalized.
* The questionable move was not trading Kessel. The Bruins appear to have gotten good value for the young sniper. The debatable transaction was giving Tim Thomas $20 million for his age 35-38 seasons. Kessel or Thomas was getting that salary cap space. The Bruins must have concluded that they are close to a Cup and Kessel’s production is less costly to replace than Thomas’. With Krejci, Ryder, Wheeler, and Kobasew on the right side of 30 plus Savard, the B’s have a good shot. It is just painful to trade another young goal scorer because since 1970 only five out of 39 championship teams did not have two or more players score 30 plus goals.
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Thank you - Red Sox!
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