Wednesday, March 31, 2004
Good Programming
Family Guy is finally coming back! I can now move onto another cause like world peace or something.
"Now all those crazy kids who've been hounding me to bring the show back can stop bothering me and move onto more serious matters -- like saving 'Coupling.'"
Gary Newman, president of 20th Century Fox TV
"…to be honest we're thrilled for our teenage kids who threatened to emancipate themselves if we didn't figure out a way to bring the show back."
Baseball around the Globe
I like the notion of regular season games being played in foreign countries. MLB needs to continue to expand into different markets. How about a series in the Dominican and/or Mexico? Monday and Tuesday play games in Japan, Wednesday-Thrusday in Mexico and Friday-Saturday in the Dominican with ESPN’s Sunday night game as the first game in the States.
Mainstream media
Ed's post yesterday is a must read.
Family Guy is finally coming back! I can now move onto another cause like world peace or something.
"Now all those crazy kids who've been hounding me to bring the show back can stop bothering me and move onto more serious matters -- like saving 'Coupling.'"
Gary Newman, president of 20th Century Fox TV
"…to be honest we're thrilled for our teenage kids who threatened to emancipate themselves if we didn't figure out a way to bring the show back."
Baseball around the Globe
I like the notion of regular season games being played in foreign countries. MLB needs to continue to expand into different markets. How about a series in the Dominican and/or Mexico? Monday and Tuesday play games in Japan, Wednesday-Thrusday in Mexico and Friday-Saturday in the Dominican with ESPN’s Sunday night game as the first game in the States.
Mainstream media
Ed's post yesterday is a must read.
Tuesday, March 30, 2004
What a wonderful morning! The sun is shinning. It is relatively warm. Three strangers said hello to me on the way to work – one being a cute blond. And the MFY fall to the Devil Rays (chuckle, chuckle) 8-3! If only every morning could be like this one ….
Monday, March 29, 2004
PEDRO! PEDRO! PEDRO!
The Red Sox should sign Pedro Martinez because he is likely to provide more value relative to risk/cost than any of the other available pitchers after the 2004 season. The concerns are legit, but do not outweigh Petey’s likely production. The usual worries are that his stuff is deteriorating, his lack of durability or ability to pitch 220 innings and throw complete games. Each is addressed below.
Pedro’s K/9 has dropped each year since his injury plagued 2001 season going from 12.57 to 10.79 to 9.93 last season. It is certainly a concern that Pedro’s ability to make hitter’s miss and his stuff is fading. It should not come to anyone’s surprise after the shoulder issue and his age. Relative to his peers, Pedro is still among the top five in K/9 as he was in 2001 and 2002. His stuff is still among the best in the world just not undeniably the best any longer. Pedro’s control or BB/IN slightly increased over 2001 and 2002, but not at an alarming rate or at a figure that RSN has not witness before in 1998. The other critical pitching stat, HR allowed, did not vary much slightly dipping in 2003 over 2002. Pedro is unlikely to have another historic season of near infallibility like in 1999 and 2000, but he is still one of the best pitchers in the world and should be in the near future if he stays healthy.
Med Man, Will Carroll, thinks that
Pedro is watched more closely than any other pitcher, and the continuing focus on preparing his body to pitch makes Chris Correnti one of the real up-and-coming trainers in the business.
Pedro gets a yellow light based on injury history, but honestly, he's much less likely than last year to come up lame.
Encouraging news but Petey’s health is still a concern. The long-term injury risk is addressed later in the post.
First off, the game has changed. Pitchers very rarely throw complete games. CHB and others need to understand this and lay off Pedro. An “Ace” in today’s game does not have to throw eight or nine innings. Clubs do not expect nor desire starters to throw more than 110 pitches in a game which usually only allows him to go seven. Pedro’s innings per start is slightly below his peers over the last three seasons. The top 40 ERA qualifiers averaged 6.6 innings per start and Pedro’s is 6.5. The issue is keeping Pedro health enough to make more than 30 starts per season not throwing complete games. Pedro has not started more than 30 games since his first season in Boston – 1998 when he made 33 starts. It is an issue, but even at 30 starts Pedro is just as valuable as a good pitcher that makes 35 starts and logged 220 innings.
VORP, created by Keith Woolner, is an estimate of a pitcher's value over and above a replacement player, as measured in runs. Because it accounts for both quantity and quality of a pitcher's performance, it is the single best measure for assessing his value. Runs allowed, rather than earned runs allowed, are used in the calculation of VORP.
Since Baseball Prospectus’ VORP stat considers both quantity and quality, it is the best measure for evaluating Pedro relative to his peers. In this case, Pedro’s peers are the likely available starting pitchers on the market after the 2004 season. Three pitchers come to mind: Derek Lowe, whom I have already discussed, Matt Morris, and Kevin Millwood. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts player performance (I am deferring to PECOTA because like Nomar, Pedro has no good historical comps to make an educated guess on future performance, and pitcher are more difficult to project than hitters. Pedro’s only decent comps were Sandy Koufax and Tom Seaver in case you were wondering and Pedro’s stats were better). PECOTA has Pedro in 2005 at 4.2 wins or roughly 42 VORP, 4.8 in 2006, then 4.8 and 3.9. Morris is at 2, 1.8, 1.5, and 1 wins. Millwood is even less impressive – 1.8, 1.7, 1.2, 1.1. BTW, Lowe is even worse forecasting at 1.5, 1.6, 1, .6 wins. Given the alternatives in the upcoming winter, Pedro is clearly the best starting pitcher on the free agent market.
Tim Hudson is due to be a free agent in 2006. He would be an admirable replacement but he is the ONLY possibility. The Sox can not wait a year hoping that Hudson doesn’t sign with the A’s and that they can lure the one guy who may be able to replace Pedro. The Sox would be forgoing a season while putting all of their eggs in the Tim Hudson basket. It is very risky and foolish notion. The signings of Roy Halladay, Kerry Wood, and Javy Vazquez killed the starting pitcher market. (If the Sox are really unsure of Pedro, they should have acquired Vazquez but that is for another post.)
Gammons wrote that Pedro feels he can get a Kevin Brown type deal - $105 over seven years. I bet Petey was referring to the $15 million per season not the length of the deal. Pedro’s own health issues and the lack of insurance for baseball contracts make a seven year deal for the superstar unlikely. If Colon gets an average annual salary of $12.75 million, then Petey deserves around $15 million. Colon’s total VORP from 2001-2003 was 161.8 in nearly 698 innings. Pedro was numbers were 184.8 in 503 innings. $15 million is his market value.
Pedro’s age, health issues and being a pitcher all make him a risky investment but given the lack of comparable alternatives, it is a venture the Sox have to take on. In order to minimize the risk for the Sox, ease the luxury tax concerns, and provide Pedro with the contract he deserves, I proposed that the parties agree on a one-year deal worth $11 million for 2005, a player option at $21 million for 2006 with a $10.6 million buyout payable over ten years, a 350 innings pitched in 2005 and 2006 option for 2007 and 2008 worth $30 million with a $5 million buyout. The incentive based option for 2007 minimizes the Sox risk of Pedro not pitching the entire length a guaranteed contract. If the reasonable innings pitched level is attained, Pedro is guaranteed another $30 million. Both parties are sharing the long-term risk of injury with the Sox taking on all of it in the short-term. (Since the Pudge deal in Detroit and insurance companies denying coverage of baseball contracts, I would not be surprised to see more deals like the one proposed above in the near future.)
Pedro’s 2006 $21 million player option, including a $10.6 million buyout, should allow the Sox to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2005 and 2006 (the large buyout makes the player option a non-guaranteed year and not subject to a luxury tax number of $16 million or the average annual value of $32 million over 2005 and 2006). If the Sox stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2005, they can go over the 2006 limit without being taxed. Structuring the deal with options containing a lower salary in 2005 with a balloon payment in 2006 should keep the tax collector away while keeping a similar payroll budget and provide Pedro with the salary and security he deserves.
As you can see, the proposal above has an average annual value of a little over $15 million per season as essentially two two-year contracts minimizing the risk of injury while avoiding the luxury tax and locking up the best available starting pitcher.
The Red Sox should sign Pedro Martinez because he is likely to provide more value relative to risk/cost than any of the other available pitchers after the 2004 season. The concerns are legit, but do not outweigh Petey’s likely production. The usual worries are that his stuff is deteriorating, his lack of durability or ability to pitch 220 innings and throw complete games. Each is addressed below.
Pedro’s K/9 has dropped each year since his injury plagued 2001 season going from 12.57 to 10.79 to 9.93 last season. It is certainly a concern that Pedro’s ability to make hitter’s miss and his stuff is fading. It should not come to anyone’s surprise after the shoulder issue and his age. Relative to his peers, Pedro is still among the top five in K/9 as he was in 2001 and 2002. His stuff is still among the best in the world just not undeniably the best any longer. Pedro’s control or BB/IN slightly increased over 2001 and 2002, but not at an alarming rate or at a figure that RSN has not witness before in 1998. The other critical pitching stat, HR allowed, did not vary much slightly dipping in 2003 over 2002. Pedro is unlikely to have another historic season of near infallibility like in 1999 and 2000, but he is still one of the best pitchers in the world and should be in the near future if he stays healthy.
Med Man, Will Carroll, thinks that
Pedro is watched more closely than any other pitcher, and the continuing focus on preparing his body to pitch makes Chris Correnti one of the real up-and-coming trainers in the business.
Pedro gets a yellow light based on injury history, but honestly, he's much less likely than last year to come up lame.
Encouraging news but Petey’s health is still a concern. The long-term injury risk is addressed later in the post.
First off, the game has changed. Pitchers very rarely throw complete games. CHB and others need to understand this and lay off Pedro. An “Ace” in today’s game does not have to throw eight or nine innings. Clubs do not expect nor desire starters to throw more than 110 pitches in a game which usually only allows him to go seven. Pedro’s innings per start is slightly below his peers over the last three seasons. The top 40 ERA qualifiers averaged 6.6 innings per start and Pedro’s is 6.5. The issue is keeping Pedro health enough to make more than 30 starts per season not throwing complete games. Pedro has not started more than 30 games since his first season in Boston – 1998 when he made 33 starts. It is an issue, but even at 30 starts Pedro is just as valuable as a good pitcher that makes 35 starts and logged 220 innings.
VORP, created by Keith Woolner, is an estimate of a pitcher's value over and above a replacement player, as measured in runs. Because it accounts for both quantity and quality of a pitcher's performance, it is the single best measure for assessing his value. Runs allowed, rather than earned runs allowed, are used in the calculation of VORP.
Since Baseball Prospectus’ VORP stat considers both quantity and quality, it is the best measure for evaluating Pedro relative to his peers. In this case, Pedro’s peers are the likely available starting pitchers on the market after the 2004 season. Three pitchers come to mind: Derek Lowe, whom I have already discussed, Matt Morris, and Kevin Millwood. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts player performance (I am deferring to PECOTA because like Nomar, Pedro has no good historical comps to make an educated guess on future performance, and pitcher are more difficult to project than hitters. Pedro’s only decent comps were Sandy Koufax and Tom Seaver in case you were wondering and Pedro’s stats were better). PECOTA has Pedro in 2005 at 4.2 wins or roughly 42 VORP, 4.8 in 2006, then 4.8 and 3.9. Morris is at 2, 1.8, 1.5, and 1 wins. Millwood is even less impressive – 1.8, 1.7, 1.2, 1.1. BTW, Lowe is even worse forecasting at 1.5, 1.6, 1, .6 wins. Given the alternatives in the upcoming winter, Pedro is clearly the best starting pitcher on the free agent market.
Tim Hudson is due to be a free agent in 2006. He would be an admirable replacement but he is the ONLY possibility. The Sox can not wait a year hoping that Hudson doesn’t sign with the A’s and that they can lure the one guy who may be able to replace Pedro. The Sox would be forgoing a season while putting all of their eggs in the Tim Hudson basket. It is very risky and foolish notion. The signings of Roy Halladay, Kerry Wood, and Javy Vazquez killed the starting pitcher market. (If the Sox are really unsure of Pedro, they should have acquired Vazquez but that is for another post.)
Gammons wrote that Pedro feels he can get a Kevin Brown type deal - $105 over seven years. I bet Petey was referring to the $15 million per season not the length of the deal. Pedro’s own health issues and the lack of insurance for baseball contracts make a seven year deal for the superstar unlikely. If Colon gets an average annual salary of $12.75 million, then Petey deserves around $15 million. Colon’s total VORP from 2001-2003 was 161.8 in nearly 698 innings. Pedro was numbers were 184.8 in 503 innings. $15 million is his market value.
Pedro’s age, health issues and being a pitcher all make him a risky investment but given the lack of comparable alternatives, it is a venture the Sox have to take on. In order to minimize the risk for the Sox, ease the luxury tax concerns, and provide Pedro with the contract he deserves, I proposed that the parties agree on a one-year deal worth $11 million for 2005, a player option at $21 million for 2006 with a $10.6 million buyout payable over ten years, a 350 innings pitched in 2005 and 2006 option for 2007 and 2008 worth $30 million with a $5 million buyout. The incentive based option for 2007 minimizes the Sox risk of Pedro not pitching the entire length a guaranteed contract. If the reasonable innings pitched level is attained, Pedro is guaranteed another $30 million. Both parties are sharing the long-term risk of injury with the Sox taking on all of it in the short-term. (Since the Pudge deal in Detroit and insurance companies denying coverage of baseball contracts, I would not be surprised to see more deals like the one proposed above in the near future.)
Pedro’s 2006 $21 million player option, including a $10.6 million buyout, should allow the Sox to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2005 and 2006 (the large buyout makes the player option a non-guaranteed year and not subject to a luxury tax number of $16 million or the average annual value of $32 million over 2005 and 2006). If the Sox stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2005, they can go over the 2006 limit without being taxed. Structuring the deal with options containing a lower salary in 2005 with a balloon payment in 2006 should keep the tax collector away while keeping a similar payroll budget and provide Pedro with the salary and security he deserves.
As you can see, the proposal above has an average annual value of a little over $15 million per season as essentially two two-year contracts minimizing the risk of injury while avoiding the luxury tax and locking up the best available starting pitcher.
Sunday, March 28, 2004
Sports Network reports indicates that
The Red Sox, unlike their New York counterparts, have some prospects other teams may be interested in, such as Kevin Youkilis, Kelly Shoppach, and David Murphy.
Clubs may have interest but only a combination of prospects that includes Shoppach would net a player that would shift the balance of power in the AL bEast. After Youkilis' poor performance in AAA, most clubs have soured on his ability since many scouts had doubts from the start. Only the three other stat/SABR/OBP clubs, Oakland, L.A. and Toronto, might have an interest in Youkilis. Oakland and Toronto have little need for Youkilis leaving only the Dodgers. Perhaps, Theo could get a veteran relief pitcher from DePo for Youkilis.
Murphy has yet to play AA. He is not going to be the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal unless he starts the season and dominates in Portland. Shoppach is a legit trading chip, but his availability depends on the Sox long-term strategy at the catcher position.
The MFY have their own catching prospect in Dioner Navarro. He got some attention after hitting .341 in AA at 20. He has made everyone's pre-season top prospect list. At this time, he certainly has the highest trading value among both club's prospects. (If Hanley Ramirez has a big couple of months, he could shot ahead of Navarro.) Navarro could be moved to gain an impact player come mid-season. Jorge De Paula will also draw interest from other clubs. He is a cheap back of the rotation starter for most clubs over the next couple of seasons. If he pitches well in Jon Leiber’s absence, his stock will sky-rocket. Young players like Eric Duncan, Rudy Guillen, and the numerous pitching prospects could accompany one of the aforementioned players to get the missing piece to the MFY puzzle come July.
Right now, each AL bEast has one chip for an impact deal, Navarro and Shoppach, but the MFY are in a better position to deal Navarro with Posada locked up through 2006. The uncertain future of Jason Varitek in a Red Sox uniform increases the likelihood that Shoppach plays the entire season in smallest state in the union (to a certain degree the same can be said of Hanley-Nomar) and that Randy Johnson is not heading to Boston in July.
The Red Sox, unlike their New York counterparts, have some prospects other teams may be interested in, such as Kevin Youkilis, Kelly Shoppach, and David Murphy.
Clubs may have interest but only a combination of prospects that includes Shoppach would net a player that would shift the balance of power in the AL bEast. After Youkilis' poor performance in AAA, most clubs have soured on his ability since many scouts had doubts from the start. Only the three other stat/SABR/OBP clubs, Oakland, L.A. and Toronto, might have an interest in Youkilis. Oakland and Toronto have little need for Youkilis leaving only the Dodgers. Perhaps, Theo could get a veteran relief pitcher from DePo for Youkilis.
Murphy has yet to play AA. He is not going to be the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal unless he starts the season and dominates in Portland. Shoppach is a legit trading chip, but his availability depends on the Sox long-term strategy at the catcher position.
The MFY have their own catching prospect in Dioner Navarro. He got some attention after hitting .341 in AA at 20. He has made everyone's pre-season top prospect list. At this time, he certainly has the highest trading value among both club's prospects. (If Hanley Ramirez has a big couple of months, he could shot ahead of Navarro.) Navarro could be moved to gain an impact player come mid-season. Jorge De Paula will also draw interest from other clubs. He is a cheap back of the rotation starter for most clubs over the next couple of seasons. If he pitches well in Jon Leiber’s absence, his stock will sky-rocket. Young players like Eric Duncan, Rudy Guillen, and the numerous pitching prospects could accompany one of the aforementioned players to get the missing piece to the MFY puzzle come July.
Right now, each AL bEast has one chip for an impact deal, Navarro and Shoppach, but the MFY are in a better position to deal Navarro with Posada locked up through 2006. The uncertain future of Jason Varitek in a Red Sox uniform increases the likelihood that Shoppach plays the entire season in smallest state in the union (to a certain degree the same can be said of Hanley-Nomar) and that Randy Johnson is not heading to Boston in July.
Friday, March 26, 2004
ROTO BASEBALL FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE
Every Friday during the season will be focused on fantasy baseball – Fantasy Friday. I’ll answer any questions (email is linked on the right), make predictions, and in general comment on roto baseball. I’ll analyze the auction draft of my league next Friday without giving up too much to my opponents.
I highly recommend the documentary, Fog of War, for anyone interested in history, politics, and philosophy.
Every Friday during the season will be focused on fantasy baseball – Fantasy Friday. I’ll answer any questions (email is linked on the right), make predictions, and in general comment on roto baseball. I’ll analyze the auction draft of my league next Friday without giving up too much to my opponents.
I highly recommend the documentary, Fog of War, for anyone interested in history, politics, and philosophy.
Thursday, March 25, 2004
NEED TWO FOR THE SOX GAME?
• RED SOX TICKETS - I have a couple of pairs of tickets for Sox games and singles. Before throwing them on Ebay, I thought I would give my readers a chance to purchase them. If you are interested send me an email link to the right.
• We, RSN, can not continue to live in the past. I am boycotting the Red Sox movie until after my trip to Vegas in late October 2004 to pickup my winnings when the Sox win the World Series. Only upon my return will I be able to tolerate a couple of hours devoted to the 2003 season. 2004 is truly the year!
• The second part of Howard Bryant interview contains too much great material to reference. I am now going to subscribe to the premium section of the herald and purchase Bryant’s book on amazon.
• Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Astros are looking at trading for Buddy Groom with the O’s receiving either Jeriome Robertson or Brandon Duckworth. Even though the Sox do not have a LH RP with the track record of Buddy Groom, they do have an abundant supply of LH RPs that are much cheaper than Groom. Robertson or Duckworth could come in handy as further pitching insurance or mid-season trade bait. Kevin Saarloos would serve the same purpose as well. Theo get on the phone and get it done.
• RED SOX TICKETS - I have a couple of pairs of tickets for Sox games and singles. Before throwing them on Ebay, I thought I would give my readers a chance to purchase them. If you are interested send me an email link to the right.
• We, RSN, can not continue to live in the past. I am boycotting the Red Sox movie until after my trip to Vegas in late October 2004 to pickup my winnings when the Sox win the World Series. Only upon my return will I be able to tolerate a couple of hours devoted to the 2003 season. 2004 is truly the year!
• The second part of Howard Bryant interview contains too much great material to reference. I am now going to subscribe to the premium section of the herald and purchase Bryant’s book on amazon.
• Jayson Stark of ESPN reports that the Astros are looking at trading for Buddy Groom with the O’s receiving either Jeriome Robertson or Brandon Duckworth. Even though the Sox do not have a LH RP with the track record of Buddy Groom, they do have an abundant supply of LH RPs that are much cheaper than Groom. Robertson or Duckworth could come in handy as further pitching insurance or mid-season trade bait. Kevin Saarloos would serve the same purpose as well. Theo get on the phone and get it done.
Wednesday, March 24, 2004
IS IT A COINCIDENCE…
…that the same day that reports surface that Nomar and Pedro had productive talks with the Sox that the arbitration panel ruled in the MFY/YES's favor? Let's not forget that The New York Times Company owns the Boston Globe and a part of the Sox. Anyway...
YES will be placed on Cablevision's, and likely others, expanded basic cable tier increasing revenues by an estimated $40 million (Doug Pappas estimates a $100 million total less ESPN’s $58.5 million prior to the ruling). The MFY would have little financial difficultly adding either Nomar or Pedro next season.
A splendid Sox preview was written by Gideon of Batter’s Box. It is tremendous. I highly recommend you take a look even though I have a few small issues with the analysis.
Gideon concludes with
The Red Sox are the Bizzarro Yankees. They’re the twisted, imperfect image of something they hate, forever self-defined in terms of the inescapable object of their loathing… You’re only as good as you think you are. This truism applies in spades to the Boston Red Sox, a team and a franchise that might only lose its shackles and break into the light of redemption when every player, executive and fan associated with the club is finally ready to admit that the Curse of the Bambino is a pile of crap, and that their destiny has always been in their own hands.
We, RSN, need to believe that this club is going to win the World Series. It will carry over to the players and everyone involved in the organization. This is truly the year!
…that the same day that reports surface that Nomar and Pedro had productive talks with the Sox that the arbitration panel ruled in the MFY/YES's favor? Let's not forget that The New York Times Company owns the Boston Globe and a part of the Sox. Anyway...
YES will be placed on Cablevision's, and likely others, expanded basic cable tier increasing revenues by an estimated $40 million (Doug Pappas estimates a $100 million total less ESPN’s $58.5 million prior to the ruling). The MFY would have little financial difficultly adding either Nomar or Pedro next season.
A splendid Sox preview was written by Gideon of Batter’s Box. It is tremendous. I highly recommend you take a look even though I have a few small issues with the analysis.
Gideon concludes with
The Red Sox are the Bizzarro Yankees. They’re the twisted, imperfect image of something they hate, forever self-defined in terms of the inescapable object of their loathing… You’re only as good as you think you are. This truism applies in spades to the Boston Red Sox, a team and a franchise that might only lose its shackles and break into the light of redemption when every player, executive and fan associated with the club is finally ready to admit that the Curse of the Bambino is a pile of crap, and that their destiny has always been in their own hands.
We, RSN, need to believe that this club is going to win the World Series. It will carry over to the players and everyone involved in the organization. This is truly the year!
Tuesday, March 23, 2004
Baseball Prospectus’ Med Writer, Will Carroll, is reporting that Nixon will follow the same protocol as Vlad last year - “therapy, then injections, then surgery.” Surgery was not necessary for Vlad. Hopefully, the same will be true for Trot. Carroll thinks that we should know shortly if the shots are effective. If so, Nixon should be back by using Vlad’s timetable last season. As for Nomar, “…tendinitis is in an area [Achilles] which isn't subject to much blood flow, extending the recovery time” combined with his history of extended recovery time and lack of spring training at-bats, we may not see the real Nomar until May.
Speaking of Nomar...
Tony Massarotti thinks Nomar and the Dodgers are a perfect fit but excludes Paul DePodesta from the article. Nomar is not a Depo player (not enough walks) and unless Depo is trumped by McCourt, the Dodgers will not give Nomar $15 mil. per season. Massarotti does make a good point:
In the end, here is the thing about our superstars in Boston: We take them for granted. We get so accustomed to the high level of performance that we ask for more without realizing that we could get less. We could have shown up at Fenway Park for the last seven years and seen someone like Izturis or Cristian Guzman or even Carlos Guillen, all shortstops for playoff contenders in recent major league seasons.
As I have written before, I never fully appreciated the 1999 and 2000 brilliance of the Nomar and Pedro.
Speaking of Nomar...
Tony Massarotti thinks Nomar and the Dodgers are a perfect fit but excludes Paul DePodesta from the article. Nomar is not a Depo player (not enough walks) and unless Depo is trumped by McCourt, the Dodgers will not give Nomar $15 mil. per season. Massarotti does make a good point:
In the end, here is the thing about our superstars in Boston: We take them for granted. We get so accustomed to the high level of performance that we ask for more without realizing that we could get less. We could have shown up at Fenway Park for the last seven years and seen someone like Izturis or Cristian Guzman or even Carlos Guillen, all shortstops for playoff contenders in recent major league seasons.
As I have written before, I never fully appreciated the 1999 and 2000 brilliance of the Nomar and Pedro.
Monday, March 22, 2004
UPDATE
It appears that my Pedro analysis will have to wait until next week. I did not get to it this weekend because I saw Jon Stewart at the Orpheum in Boston on Saturday, had a family commitment and then the drive through a spring snow storm on Sunday night. I’ll write it this weekend; most of the research is done.
Tonight is my fantasy draft. It is AL only minus all MFY. No one should be subject to buying a MFY. We play with a $100 cap for 15 players (8 position players + 1 util/dh, 5 pitchers and a bench player). The pot is spilt 60/30/10. We score 5X5 plus OBP with seven teams. My comments on the draft should be ready by Wednesday.
ROLLING THROUGH THE NEWS
Ray Ratto missed one important detail- Jermaine Dye's $11 million dollar salary comes off the books next season. The A's are basically exchanging Dye with Chavez in 2005. Chavez's $5.2 million dollar 2004 salary will be going to the Big Three's 2005 salary bumps. It is not a philosophy change. The numbers work.
A couple of Sox notes from Rosenthal’s latest column:
The Red Sox expect RF Trot Nixon to miss only the first month with a mildly herniated disk in his lower back, but one scout is concerned that the player could experience further problems. "His torque is just as significant as Vladimir Guerrero's, but he doesn't have the flexibility that Guerrero does," the scout says. Nixon, who turns 30 on April 11, gained nearly 30 pounds between the end of the 2002 season and the start of 2003. . . .
Astros Class AAA RHP Kirk Saarloos is coveted by teams that lean heavily on statistical analysis. Three such clubs -- the A's, Blue Jays and Red Sox -- have expressed interest in him this spring. Those teams evidently are impressed by Saarloos' low walk and home run rates in the minors and undeterred by his below-average fastball. . . .
Saarloos’ low home run rate in the minors should be looked at more closely since he plays his AAA home games in the Southern City of Sin, New Orleans. It is far below sea level causing an opposite Coors Field affect. Scouts’ opinions on Saarloos should weigh heavily in the discussion.
It appears that my Pedro analysis will have to wait until next week. I did not get to it this weekend because I saw Jon Stewart at the Orpheum in Boston on Saturday, had a family commitment and then the drive through a spring snow storm on Sunday night. I’ll write it this weekend; most of the research is done.
Tonight is my fantasy draft. It is AL only minus all MFY. No one should be subject to buying a MFY. We play with a $100 cap for 15 players (8 position players + 1 util/dh, 5 pitchers and a bench player). The pot is spilt 60/30/10. We score 5X5 plus OBP with seven teams. My comments on the draft should be ready by Wednesday.
ROLLING THROUGH THE NEWS
Ray Ratto missed one important detail- Jermaine Dye's $11 million dollar salary comes off the books next season. The A's are basically exchanging Dye with Chavez in 2005. Chavez's $5.2 million dollar 2004 salary will be going to the Big Three's 2005 salary bumps. It is not a philosophy change. The numbers work.
A couple of Sox notes from Rosenthal’s latest column:
The Red Sox expect RF Trot Nixon to miss only the first month with a mildly herniated disk in his lower back, but one scout is concerned that the player could experience further problems. "His torque is just as significant as Vladimir Guerrero's, but he doesn't have the flexibility that Guerrero does," the scout says. Nixon, who turns 30 on April 11, gained nearly 30 pounds between the end of the 2002 season and the start of 2003. . . .
Astros Class AAA RHP Kirk Saarloos is coveted by teams that lean heavily on statistical analysis. Three such clubs -- the A's, Blue Jays and Red Sox -- have expressed interest in him this spring. Those teams evidently are impressed by Saarloos' low walk and home run rates in the minors and undeterred by his below-average fastball. . . .
Saarloos’ low home run rate in the minors should be looked at more closely since he plays his AAA home games in the Southern City of Sin, New Orleans. It is far below sea level causing an opposite Coors Field affect. Scouts’ opinions on Saarloos should weigh heavily in the discussion.
Saturday, March 20, 2004
NOTES FROM THE NEWS
What's more, Epstein said, it could be unwise to make a major new investment if the injuries heal on schedule.
"If we can't withstand [Nixon possibly missing the first month], we're not a championship club," Epstein said.
A day or two ago, I was harsh on Cafardo. He has a good take on the Sox injury situation, although the comparison to the Pats/football is not the best - it certainly works.
Speaking of football, I read yesterday in ESPN the Gagazine that the Pats and other clubs scout their scouts. They measure the scouts reports against player performance to get a better take on the scouts bias in order to draft better. Does anyone know if this happens in baseball?
``It's just something to maybe get a few more strikeouts with a ball in the dirt - which is something that I don't do a lot - and maybe get a few ground balls than fly balls,'' Foulke said. ``I've given up some pretty good fly balls (historically) and I've got to try to stay away from that.''
Like Curt Schilling, who is working on a cutter to utilize right and center fields at Fenway Park, Foulke is adding the pitch to keep the ball on the ground.
Nice stuff to hear.
Alex Belth of Bronx Banter (formerly?) and Hardball Times has an excellent interview with the Herald's Howard Bryant about race and sports in Boston. This interview is the reason I will be purchasing Bryant's book Shout. Here is a quick cut:
THT: There is a profound moment in the ESPN Sports Century episode on Russell when Bob Cousy spontaneously breaks down crying. Essentially, he was describing what Russell had to go through and he expressed his own guilt or shame for not having recognized it more at the time. It was an incredibly moving and a tribute to the difficulties Russell and other black athletes faced at the time, not only in Boston.
Bryant: Absolutely. You asked me the question as to why the racial dilemma in Boston was unique and it's because you parallel tracts between city and team. I always make the argument that the city of Boston - still to this day - can be reflected through its sports teams....But most sports teams today are just teams. That's all they are. But in Boston, they still have weight.
What's more, Epstein said, it could be unwise to make a major new investment if the injuries heal on schedule.
"If we can't withstand [Nixon possibly missing the first month], we're not a championship club," Epstein said.
A day or two ago, I was harsh on Cafardo. He has a good take on the Sox injury situation, although the comparison to the Pats/football is not the best - it certainly works.
Speaking of football, I read yesterday in ESPN the Gagazine that the Pats and other clubs scout their scouts. They measure the scouts reports against player performance to get a better take on the scouts bias in order to draft better. Does anyone know if this happens in baseball?
``It's just something to maybe get a few more strikeouts with a ball in the dirt - which is something that I don't do a lot - and maybe get a few ground balls than fly balls,'' Foulke said. ``I've given up some pretty good fly balls (historically) and I've got to try to stay away from that.''
Like Curt Schilling, who is working on a cutter to utilize right and center fields at Fenway Park, Foulke is adding the pitch to keep the ball on the ground.
Nice stuff to hear.
Alex Belth of Bronx Banter (formerly?) and Hardball Times has an excellent interview with the Herald's Howard Bryant about race and sports in Boston. This interview is the reason I will be purchasing Bryant's book Shout. Here is a quick cut:
THT: There is a profound moment in the ESPN Sports Century episode on Russell when Bob Cousy spontaneously breaks down crying. Essentially, he was describing what Russell had to go through and he expressed his own guilt or shame for not having recognized it more at the time. It was an incredibly moving and a tribute to the difficulties Russell and other black athletes faced at the time, not only in Boston.
Bryant: Absolutely. You asked me the question as to why the racial dilemma in Boston was unique and it's because you parallel tracts between city and team. I always make the argument that the city of Boston - still to this day - can be reflected through its sports teams....But most sports teams today are just teams. That's all they are. But in Boston, they still have weight.
Friday, March 19, 2004
BAD NEWS
Tito, please spare me from watching Millar in right; play Kapler unless DLowe is pitching.
Nixon's injury is a real problem. Backs usually do not heal quickly or fully.
Right now, it does not appear that Nomar's injury is too bad. On the plus side, Bellhorn will play more in Nomie's absence allowing the Sox to showcase his talent just in case a move needs to be made in right.
Tito, please spare me from watching Millar in right; play Kapler unless DLowe is pitching.
Nixon's injury is a real problem. Backs usually do not heal quickly or fully.
Right now, it does not appear that Nomar's injury is too bad. On the plus side, Bellhorn will play more in Nomie's absence allowing the Sox to showcase his talent just in case a move needs to be made in right.
This is a joke, right? Nomar is fine. The cast is just part of a Kevin Millar prank, right?
From DirtDogs:
3.16 on Larry King Live (Caller: What do you think about the A-Rod trade?): “…Don't ever underestimate the crookedness of Steinbrenner for one thing. (LK: What did he do that was crooked?) Well, I mean I don't know exactly, but I know it was crooked. I know, I mean he had the players union. He was gonna... it doesn't matter, it's past us.” [emphasis EGG].
If the Ben Aflack Trivia Question is referring to Red Sox Nation as “us,” then when was the vote taken for him to be Spokesperson? I was not involved nor any of the other member of RSN that I know. It’s fine that B.A. wants to talk about the Sox but he should only speak for himself. He must be stopped. Let's get the word out to him. Please help me in this effort.
From DirtDogs:
3.16 on Larry King Live (Caller: What do you think about the A-Rod trade?): “…Don't ever underestimate the crookedness of Steinbrenner for one thing. (LK: What did he do that was crooked?) Well, I mean I don't know exactly, but I know it was crooked. I know, I mean he had the players union. He was gonna... it doesn't matter, it's past us.” [emphasis EGG].
If the Ben Aflack Trivia Question is referring to Red Sox Nation as “us,” then when was the vote taken for him to be Spokesperson? I was not involved nor any of the other member of RSN that I know. It’s fine that B.A. wants to talk about the Sox but he should only speak for himself. He must be stopped. Let's get the word out to him. Please help me in this effort.
Thursday, March 18, 2004
General manager Theo Epstein did not rule out a trade before the start of the season if he feels recent injury problems -- mainly Trot Nixon -- are long term.
The first thing that popped into my head was oh shit, Nixon must be really hurting. Then I saw who wrote the article, Nick Cafardo, not the usual Notes scribes, Edes and Hohler. Cafardo is not as bad as CHB but Theo was not quoted so I am taking this report lightly.
Anyway, the first two possible RF that came to mind were Richard Hidalgo and Jacques Jones. Both are on clubs with cheaper outfield options making them tradable. Hidalgo (contract numbers: $8 million cap, $12 cash, $2 buyout) – no need to go further Hidalgo is too expensive and the cheap Astros will not throw in enough, if any cash. Jones ($3.55 cap, $4.35 cash) – Jones doesn’t walk and is horrible vs. southpaws, but rips up righthanders and is great in the field. Jones is a mixed bag. The Twins are likely to want a top prospect in return. Since Jones is unlikely to be with the Sox beyond this season, it is doubtful that Theo would part with one of the few legit Sox prospects.
Then I thought about non-contending clubs. Craig Wilson of the Pirates ($1.15) seems like a good fit. Wilson has decent plate discipline and power. After three seasons, his career line is 272/363/496. Wilson has been mostly a part-time player never getting more than 425 plate appearances in a season. He could have a “breakout season” with more chances at the plate, but Wilson would likely be only adequate in right at Fenway. On the plus side, Wilson could also serve as Varitek’s backup. Littlefield is not going to give away a developing hitter making a little over a million. My guess is that an A-level or a couple of B-level prospects would be necessary to attain Wilson. But unlike Hidalgo and Jones, Wilson would be under Sox control for two arbitration eligible seasons giving the Sox more roster flexibility regarding backup catcher, outfield and first base positions. Hopefully, Nixon gets better and soon so no deals need to be explored.
And...
Are you joking? I do not know what to make of this.
The first thing that popped into my head was oh shit, Nixon must be really hurting. Then I saw who wrote the article, Nick Cafardo, not the usual Notes scribes, Edes and Hohler. Cafardo is not as bad as CHB but Theo was not quoted so I am taking this report lightly.
Anyway, the first two possible RF that came to mind were Richard Hidalgo and Jacques Jones. Both are on clubs with cheaper outfield options making them tradable. Hidalgo (contract numbers: $8 million cap, $12 cash, $2 buyout) – no need to go further Hidalgo is too expensive and the cheap Astros will not throw in enough, if any cash. Jones ($3.55 cap, $4.35 cash) – Jones doesn’t walk and is horrible vs. southpaws, but rips up righthanders and is great in the field. Jones is a mixed bag. The Twins are likely to want a top prospect in return. Since Jones is unlikely to be with the Sox beyond this season, it is doubtful that Theo would part with one of the few legit Sox prospects.
Then I thought about non-contending clubs. Craig Wilson of the Pirates ($1.15) seems like a good fit. Wilson has decent plate discipline and power. After three seasons, his career line is 272/363/496. Wilson has been mostly a part-time player never getting more than 425 plate appearances in a season. He could have a “breakout season” with more chances at the plate, but Wilson would likely be only adequate in right at Fenway. On the plus side, Wilson could also serve as Varitek’s backup. Littlefield is not going to give away a developing hitter making a little over a million. My guess is that an A-level or a couple of B-level prospects would be necessary to attain Wilson. But unlike Hidalgo and Jones, Wilson would be under Sox control for two arbitration eligible seasons giving the Sox more roster flexibility regarding backup catcher, outfield and first base positions. Hopefully, Nixon gets better and soon so no deals need to be explored.
And...
Are you joking? I do not know what to make of this.
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
RETRACTION
It was not Gammons who was advocating a Nomar-Cabrera deal. It was his colleague, Scott Ridge of ESPN.com.
Three good points from Tito in today's news:
1. Francona said he does not plan to regularly pair Wakefield with catcher Doug Mirabelli, as Grady Little did last year. He indicated Mirabelli's catching schedule would depend on when Varitek needs days off Play your best as much as possible like maximizing at-bats for your best hitters.
2. ``I really think we want to take 11,'' Francona said. ``If at the buzzer something happens, we reserve the right to change that.'' A late inning defensive replacement, pinch runner or hitter is a more valuable option than an extra mop up arm.
3. "If it looks like maybe it's a struggle toward the end," Francona said of Nixon's condition, "we may go ahead and let Manny play over there for a couple of days. He's fine with it. If it came to that, I think I'd rather put Manny out there and put Kevin in left." Certainly, on the road and when DLowe is on the mound, Manny and Millar in the outfield should not hurt the club. Other combinations are questionable. Hopefully, Trot will be ready soon.
It was not Gammons who was advocating a Nomar-Cabrera deal. It was his colleague, Scott Ridge of ESPN.com.
Three good points from Tito in today's news:
1. Francona said he does not plan to regularly pair Wakefield with catcher Doug Mirabelli, as Grady Little did last year. He indicated Mirabelli's catching schedule would depend on when Varitek needs days off Play your best as much as possible like maximizing at-bats for your best hitters.
2. ``I really think we want to take 11,'' Francona said. ``If at the buzzer something happens, we reserve the right to change that.'' A late inning defensive replacement, pinch runner or hitter is a more valuable option than an extra mop up arm.
3. "If it looks like maybe it's a struggle toward the end," Francona said of Nixon's condition, "we may go ahead and let Manny play over there for a couple of days. He's fine with it. If it came to that, I think I'd rather put Manny out there and put Kevin in left." Certainly, on the road and when DLowe is on the mound, Manny and Millar in the outfield should not hurt the club. Other combinations are questionable. Hopefully, Trot will be ready soon.
Tuesday, March 16, 2004
I forgot to mention this about Gammons’ latest because it is so absurd. There is no way the Sox trade Nomar for Orlando Cabrera straight up. If it is Theo’s plan A, which I doubt it is, to replace Cabrera with Nomar in 2005, he would still not make this deal for the following reasons:
1. Nomar is very likely to have a better season than Cabrera and it is too late to make another deal to make up the difference. Theo would be hurting the main objective, the 2004 club’s chance of making the playoffs.
2. The Sox will offer Nomar arbitration and when he declines the Sox will receive at least a first round draft pick as compensation to further restock the farm.
3. It is unlikely that the Expos will offer arbitration to Cabrera like Vlad so the Sox would gain a pick.
Plus, Renteria is a better option than O.C. and will likely be available. The Cards have indicated that they are not expanding the payroll even with a new stadium. At $84 million, it will be very difficult to sign Matt Morris, Edgar Renteria and pickup the option on Woody Williams. The Cards have $53 million committed to only seven players. Only Jim Edmonds is possible trade bait in order to shed payroll, but his $22 million is a big pill to swallow for most clubs. If Edmonds can’t be moved, Morris and Williams get signed and Renteria moves out of the show me your junk state. Renteria is a better alternative than Cabrera for the Sox in 2005.
1. Nomar is very likely to have a better season than Cabrera and it is too late to make another deal to make up the difference. Theo would be hurting the main objective, the 2004 club’s chance of making the playoffs.
2. The Sox will offer Nomar arbitration and when he declines the Sox will receive at least a first round draft pick as compensation to further restock the farm.
3. It is unlikely that the Expos will offer arbitration to Cabrera like Vlad so the Sox would gain a pick.
Plus, Renteria is a better option than O.C. and will likely be available. The Cards have indicated that they are not expanding the payroll even with a new stadium. At $84 million, it will be very difficult to sign Matt Morris, Edgar Renteria and pickup the option on Woody Williams. The Cards have $53 million committed to only seven players. Only Jim Edmonds is possible trade bait in order to shed payroll, but his $22 million is a big pill to swallow for most clubs. If Edmonds can’t be moved, Morris and Williams get signed and Renteria moves out of the show me your junk state. Renteria is a better alternative than Cabrera for the Sox in 2005.
From Gammons' latest,
Martinez is far more confident of his ability to get Kevin Brown money on the open market than he was last spring. Martinez expects there is nothing that George Steinbrenner would consider more priceless than Pedro in pinstripes just because of what it would set off in Lucchino.
I know this is part of the negotiation process but I want to here again from Pedro that Boy George “..can’t buy my heart!”
As stated previously, if the YES network is NOT part of Cablevision’s basic package, the MFY will have a difficult time breaking even next season. Of course, adding $15 million makes it even tougher. The current payroll break even point is about $185 million. Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus estimates the MFY revenue would fall by at least 50% or roughly $29 million if YES is moved to the premium tier. Being the math geek that I am, it would reduce the MFY break even mark to $156 million. The MFY have $167 million already committed to 17 players. An additional $7 million for the other seven players and $15 million would produce a payroll of $189 million or a $33 million loss (assuming the additional tax payment will be offset by additional attendance related revenue). The possible sea of red should make Boy George think twice about another spending spree and decrease Pedro’s leverage with the Sox. The upcoming ruling could be huge for the Sox.
My last analysis of the upcoming free agents, Pedro, will be posted later next week. I apologize for the delay. My weekends have been busy and I have been preparing for my fantasy draft next Monday. BTW, Ed Cossette is a must read today.
Martinez is far more confident of his ability to get Kevin Brown money on the open market than he was last spring. Martinez expects there is nothing that George Steinbrenner would consider more priceless than Pedro in pinstripes just because of what it would set off in Lucchino.
I know this is part of the negotiation process but I want to here again from Pedro that Boy George “..can’t buy my heart!”
As stated previously, if the YES network is NOT part of Cablevision’s basic package, the MFY will have a difficult time breaking even next season. Of course, adding $15 million makes it even tougher. The current payroll break even point is about $185 million. Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus estimates the MFY revenue would fall by at least 50% or roughly $29 million if YES is moved to the premium tier. Being the math geek that I am, it would reduce the MFY break even mark to $156 million. The MFY have $167 million already committed to 17 players. An additional $7 million for the other seven players and $15 million would produce a payroll of $189 million or a $33 million loss (assuming the additional tax payment will be offset by additional attendance related revenue). The possible sea of red should make Boy George think twice about another spending spree and decrease Pedro’s leverage with the Sox. The upcoming ruling could be huge for the Sox.
My last analysis of the upcoming free agents, Pedro, will be posted later next week. I apologize for the delay. My weekends have been busy and I have been preparing for my fantasy draft next Monday. BTW, Ed Cossette is a must read today.
Monday, March 15, 2004
Jon Lieber, the MFY fifth starter, is down with a groin injury Newsday reports.
"He could pitch with it. But we don't want him to pitch with it," Torre said. "If we were in the last two weeks of September, we may say, 'Do the best you can.' But not at this point."
It doesn’t seem to be serious but groin injuries like backs and hammies trend to linger. (I am concerned about Trot. Kim should be fine and if not Arroyo is waiting in the wings.) If any of the MFY top five can not take the hill, a fairly good bet, rookie Jorge De Paula, Donovan Ozzy Osborne or the old, creaky El Dooker will take their spot. All three would be a significant drop off.
The report goes on to say that..
The Yankees will likely explore the trade market for starting pitchers, because that's what they always do. Los Angeles is interested in trading Odalis Perez or Kazuhisa Ishii for offense, and the Pirates would like to trade Kris Benson. At first blush, none of the trio interests the Yankees.
It is unlikely that the MFY will make a move until June unless any of their starters go down for a prolonged period of time. In this scenario, Benson would be the likely candidate. He will not cost much in terms of player compensation; the Pirates are desperate to move his $6.1 million salary. In a Benson deal, the MFY would not have to include their top prospect and only big trading chip, Dioner Navarro.. They do not want to panic and pull the trigger on a deal for a Perez or Ishii involving Navarro when a better pitcher may become available when more teams fall out of contention in July.
BTW,
The decision regarding Nomar has gotten even more difficult with the impending signing of Eric Chavez. The SF Chronicle is reporting that a $66 million deal over six years will be announced shortly. The only real infield replacement for Nomar's past production is now officially not even coming to market.
"He could pitch with it. But we don't want him to pitch with it," Torre said. "If we were in the last two weeks of September, we may say, 'Do the best you can.' But not at this point."
It doesn’t seem to be serious but groin injuries like backs and hammies trend to linger. (I am concerned about Trot. Kim should be fine and if not Arroyo is waiting in the wings.) If any of the MFY top five can not take the hill, a fairly good bet, rookie Jorge De Paula, Donovan Ozzy Osborne or the old, creaky El Dooker will take their spot. All three would be a significant drop off.
The report goes on to say that..
The Yankees will likely explore the trade market for starting pitchers, because that's what they always do. Los Angeles is interested in trading Odalis Perez or Kazuhisa Ishii for offense, and the Pirates would like to trade Kris Benson. At first blush, none of the trio interests the Yankees.
It is unlikely that the MFY will make a move until June unless any of their starters go down for a prolonged period of time. In this scenario, Benson would be the likely candidate. He will not cost much in terms of player compensation; the Pirates are desperate to move his $6.1 million salary. In a Benson deal, the MFY would not have to include their top prospect and only big trading chip, Dioner Navarro.. They do not want to panic and pull the trigger on a deal for a Perez or Ishii involving Navarro when a better pitcher may become available when more teams fall out of contention in July.
BTW,
The decision regarding Nomar has gotten even more difficult with the impending signing of Eric Chavez. The SF Chronicle is reporting that a $66 million deal over six years will be announced shortly. The only real infield replacement for Nomar's past production is now officially not even coming to market.
Friday, March 12, 2004
DID AL REYES ON SEPTEMBER 25, 1999 CHANGE EVERYTHING?
The reports indicated that the Red Sox and Nomar have had varying opinions on his “market value” during these changing economic times in baseball. It should no longer be much of an issue with the acquisition of A-Hole and the signing of Tejada. Baseball “market value” is based primarily on historical performance for a number of reasons. With that in mind, Nomar’s “market value” is above Tejada’s roughly $12 million salary and A-Hole’s salary paid by the MFY at $16 million. Both Nomar and the Sox appear to not have issue with the length of the proposal (three years), so a contract around $42 million should be considered “market value.” The issues are will Nomar’s future performance mirror his historical production and are better alternatives available.
Beside that fact that Nomar was an all-world hitter prior to his wrist injury, the only good comparables (shortstops in the modern era), in terms of getting a gauge for future performance is HOF, Ernie Banks. One player is too small of a sample size to draw any type of conclusions about Nomar’s future performance (I will mention that Banks did not put up an OPS+ greater than 120 after the age of 30) so a hard look at his past performance in relation to a larger sample is the best way to measure Nomar’s future value.
A hitter’s value is mostly measured by his ability to contribute to putting runs on the scoreboard by getting on-base/scoring runs and hitting for power/driving in runs. A player’s OBP and SLG are the mainstream statistics that measure the aforementioned skills. Any keen observer of the Red Sox is acutely aware of the fact that Nomar rarely EARNS a walk. The pitcher usually walks Nomar. He is up there to swing the bat and most times he makes contact. Fortunately, Nomar hits for a high average leading to an above average on-base percentage. Another way to put it is that a lot of Nomar’s OBP is tied up in his ability to hit for average and for most players that is a risky strategy.
The table below is in Baseball Prospectus 2004 Book in the Baltimore Orioles chapter.
Correlation for batters, per PA, consecutive seasons >200 at-bats, all players 1969-2003
K - .837
SB - .829
BB - .751
HR - .750
1B - .585
O - .583 (batting an out)
H - .450
3B - .412
2B - .384
K, SB, BB, and HR have a high correlation in consecutive seasons; thus a player’s performance in these areas from one year to the next should be similar. Three of the four (K, BB, HR) are battles between the pitcher and hitter only. The outcome is not dependent upon the eight other defensive players on the field. Luck plays a bigger role in the other outcomes. Hence, “Events that come primarily from a player’s own skill will be very highly correlated for the same player from one season to the next; events that are mostly luck will have low correlations” (Huckabay, et al). Since Nomar relies on hits (.450) as his primary weapon to getting on-base, Nomar’s OBP will likely vary from year to year and this has held true throughout his career. Half of Nomar’s value as a hitter is highly variable.
The other half, his ability to hit for power and drive in runs, is also variable. Nomar’s SLG has become less influence by home runs from 1998 as the table below illustrates (year – SLG - XBH/PA; 2B+3B/PA; HR/PA):
98 – 584 - .1227/.0690/.0537
99 – 603 - .1227/.0773/.0454
00 – 599 - .1252/.0902/.0351
02 – 528 - .1227/.0880/.0346
03 – 524 - .1085/.0695/.0389
Other than in 2003, Nomar’s HR/PA has dropped each full season while XBH/PA has stayed steady. The declining homerun rate is not a positive trend.
The more concerning development is the overall drop in slugging percentage post-wrist injury caused by, the previously discussed, drop in HR/PA and XBH/PA. Intuitively one would think that a decrease in G/F ratio would increase SLG, but the opposite is true of Nomar. Nomar had a G/F ratio greater than 1.16 from 1998-2000 or his 584+SLG years, when he hit the majority of his balls on the ground. In 2002 and 2003, Nomar’s G/F ratio dropped to .71 and .73, respectfully, but his SLG dropped as well. It seems that Nomar hit a high percentage of his fly balls with authority increasing the likelihood for XBH from 98-00 and even though Nomar hit more fly balls in 02-03, the majority was of the weaker variety resulting in outs or singles rather than XBH. A professional scout(s) after a five season at-bats review would be the best resource to comment on the above statement and be able to recognize any differences in pre and post-injury. Since both the numbers and the conclusion of the above analysis can not both be positive, the most optimist outlook is that it would be difficult to forecast Nomar’s future ability to hit for power increasing the risk of a long-term deal.
The possible 2004 winter free agent alternatives in the infield (less first baseman) are Eric Chavez, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro. (Of course, we could discuss the tons of scenarios to offset the possible loss of Nomar’s production but that would go on forever.) Chavez would be a less risky investment for numerous reasons with similar upside of Nomar, although it is unlikely that he is leaving Oakland. Chavez has hired former Red Sox post season killer, Dave Stewart as his agent and the talk is of signing a “fair” deal for both parties soon. Negotiations are ongoing; the deal will get done. Cabrera would not come close to filling the shoes of Nomar. A O.C. signing would have to be in conjunction with the inking of Vidro. Prior to last season, Vidro’s OBP was tied to his AVG like Nomar, but not to that extreme. Vidro also has not shown nearly the same amount of power as Nomar throughout his career. The same can be said of Renteria. Other than Chavez (an unlikely free agent), there is no upcoming infield free agent alternative that can fulfill Nomar’s past production making the decision an even more difficult one.
The Sox should not sign Nomar to a long-term deal this spring. There is too much risk involved. A reasonable and conservative projection for Nomar in 2005 and beyond is 285/330/480. Vidro, Renteria and Cabrera could put up that line and their upcoming salaries may not top $10 million. Paying $14 million for those numbers at shortstop is not cost effective. Thus, the Sox should wait to sign Nomar. Waiting on Nomar does run the risk of further alienating him, but only the Cubs and Anaheim have the resources to match the Sox and an opening at shortstop. The Sox can certainly top any offer made by another club. Hopefully, Nomar can regain his power of the past in 2004 and the Sox ink Nomar a week after the parade.
The reports indicated that the Red Sox and Nomar have had varying opinions on his “market value” during these changing economic times in baseball. It should no longer be much of an issue with the acquisition of A-Hole and the signing of Tejada. Baseball “market value” is based primarily on historical performance for a number of reasons. With that in mind, Nomar’s “market value” is above Tejada’s roughly $12 million salary and A-Hole’s salary paid by the MFY at $16 million. Both Nomar and the Sox appear to not have issue with the length of the proposal (three years), so a contract around $42 million should be considered “market value.” The issues are will Nomar’s future performance mirror his historical production and are better alternatives available.
Beside that fact that Nomar was an all-world hitter prior to his wrist injury, the only good comparables (shortstops in the modern era), in terms of getting a gauge for future performance is HOF, Ernie Banks. One player is too small of a sample size to draw any type of conclusions about Nomar’s future performance (I will mention that Banks did not put up an OPS+ greater than 120 after the age of 30) so a hard look at his past performance in relation to a larger sample is the best way to measure Nomar’s future value.
A hitter’s value is mostly measured by his ability to contribute to putting runs on the scoreboard by getting on-base/scoring runs and hitting for power/driving in runs. A player’s OBP and SLG are the mainstream statistics that measure the aforementioned skills. Any keen observer of the Red Sox is acutely aware of the fact that Nomar rarely EARNS a walk. The pitcher usually walks Nomar. He is up there to swing the bat and most times he makes contact. Fortunately, Nomar hits for a high average leading to an above average on-base percentage. Another way to put it is that a lot of Nomar’s OBP is tied up in his ability to hit for average and for most players that is a risky strategy.
The table below is in Baseball Prospectus 2004 Book in the Baltimore Orioles chapter.
Correlation for batters, per PA, consecutive seasons >200 at-bats, all players 1969-2003
K - .837
SB - .829
BB - .751
HR - .750
1B - .585
O - .583 (batting an out)
H - .450
3B - .412
2B - .384
K, SB, BB, and HR have a high correlation in consecutive seasons; thus a player’s performance in these areas from one year to the next should be similar. Three of the four (K, BB, HR) are battles between the pitcher and hitter only. The outcome is not dependent upon the eight other defensive players on the field. Luck plays a bigger role in the other outcomes. Hence, “Events that come primarily from a player’s own skill will be very highly correlated for the same player from one season to the next; events that are mostly luck will have low correlations” (Huckabay, et al). Since Nomar relies on hits (.450) as his primary weapon to getting on-base, Nomar’s OBP will likely vary from year to year and this has held true throughout his career. Half of Nomar’s value as a hitter is highly variable.
The other half, his ability to hit for power and drive in runs, is also variable. Nomar’s SLG has become less influence by home runs from 1998 as the table below illustrates (year – SLG - XBH/PA; 2B+3B/PA; HR/PA):
98 – 584 - .1227/.0690/.0537
99 – 603 - .1227/.0773/.0454
00 – 599 - .1252/.0902/.0351
02 – 528 - .1227/.0880/.0346
03 – 524 - .1085/.0695/.0389
Other than in 2003, Nomar’s HR/PA has dropped each full season while XBH/PA has stayed steady. The declining homerun rate is not a positive trend.
The more concerning development is the overall drop in slugging percentage post-wrist injury caused by, the previously discussed, drop in HR/PA and XBH/PA. Intuitively one would think that a decrease in G/F ratio would increase SLG, but the opposite is true of Nomar. Nomar had a G/F ratio greater than 1.16 from 1998-2000 or his 584+SLG years, when he hit the majority of his balls on the ground. In 2002 and 2003, Nomar’s G/F ratio dropped to .71 and .73, respectfully, but his SLG dropped as well. It seems that Nomar hit a high percentage of his fly balls with authority increasing the likelihood for XBH from 98-00 and even though Nomar hit more fly balls in 02-03, the majority was of the weaker variety resulting in outs or singles rather than XBH. A professional scout(s) after a five season at-bats review would be the best resource to comment on the above statement and be able to recognize any differences in pre and post-injury. Since both the numbers and the conclusion of the above analysis can not both be positive, the most optimist outlook is that it would be difficult to forecast Nomar’s future ability to hit for power increasing the risk of a long-term deal.
The possible 2004 winter free agent alternatives in the infield (less first baseman) are Eric Chavez, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro. (Of course, we could discuss the tons of scenarios to offset the possible loss of Nomar’s production but that would go on forever.) Chavez would be a less risky investment for numerous reasons with similar upside of Nomar, although it is unlikely that he is leaving Oakland. Chavez has hired former Red Sox post season killer, Dave Stewart as his agent and the talk is of signing a “fair” deal for both parties soon. Negotiations are ongoing; the deal will get done. Cabrera would not come close to filling the shoes of Nomar. A O.C. signing would have to be in conjunction with the inking of Vidro. Prior to last season, Vidro’s OBP was tied to his AVG like Nomar, but not to that extreme. Vidro also has not shown nearly the same amount of power as Nomar throughout his career. The same can be said of Renteria. Other than Chavez (an unlikely free agent), there is no upcoming infield free agent alternative that can fulfill Nomar’s past production making the decision an even more difficult one.
The Sox should not sign Nomar to a long-term deal this spring. There is too much risk involved. A reasonable and conservative projection for Nomar in 2005 and beyond is 285/330/480. Vidro, Renteria and Cabrera could put up that line and their upcoming salaries may not top $10 million. Paying $14 million for those numbers at shortstop is not cost effective. Thus, the Sox should wait to sign Nomar. Waiting on Nomar does run the risk of further alienating him, but only the Cubs and Anaheim have the resources to match the Sox and an opening at shortstop. The Sox can certainly top any offer made by another club. Hopefully, Nomar can regain his power of the past in 2004 and the Sox ink Nomar a week after the parade.
Wednesday, March 10, 2004
There was a strong indication yesterday that the Sox are making serious bids to re-sign Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Jason Varitek before the end of spring training, according to one industry source with knowledge of the talks. The team has made offers to all three players, with the offer to Garciaparra believed to be for three years plus an option.
I am working hard on getting my Nomar analysis completed. It is going very well. I hope to have it done by next week at the latest. Hopefully, Pedro's will be done prior to Opening Day and I am against a long-term deal for V-Tek.
I am working hard on getting my Nomar analysis completed. It is going very well. I hope to have it done by next week at the latest. Hopefully, Pedro's will be done prior to Opening Day and I am against a long-term deal for V-Tek.
Monday, March 08, 2004
Just in case you missed this Jim Caple article about Red Sox Nation on Page 2.
REELING IN THE EVIL EMPIRE?
Later this month, three people have the power to significantly reduce the possibility of the MFY topping the $200 million dollar payroll figure. Louis Bechtle, Stanley Sporkin and Richard Aurelio may have more say about the MFY 2005 player salary budget than anyone directly affiliated with MLB. The three make up the arbitration panel that will decide the fate of the Yankees’ YES Network on Cablevision, which has 2.9 million subscribers in the NYC metro area and owned by former Red Sox bidder and Boy George hater, Charlie Dolan.
As Doug Pappas states on his blog,
The big issue is whether YES will air on the expanded basic cable tier, which will force all Cablevision subscribers to pay for it, or as a premium channel which most Cablevision subscribers won't buy. The arbitrators will also determine the price Cablevision must pay for YES, and the length of the contract between YES and Cablevision.
Moreover, if Cablevision wins and is able to move YES to a premium tier, clauses in YES's contracts with other New York-area cable systems will allow these operators to do the same. YES currently collects an average of $2.12 per month for every cable subscriber with expanded basic. If relegated to a premium tier then even at a higher price per customer, its revenues would be likely to fall by 50% or more.
It is estimated that the MFY are operating very close to break even in 2004 with a payroll of $185 million. If the ruling is in the MFY favor resulting in YES airing on the expanded basic cable tier like NESN, than it should increase the MFY revenue from cable operators and player’s payroll. If the panel sides with Cablevision, it will at least make Boy George think twice about adding players because he and his partners will likely be operating at a loss. An experience the MFY organization has probably not dealt with in sometime.
Later this month, three people have the power to significantly reduce the possibility of the MFY topping the $200 million dollar payroll figure. Louis Bechtle, Stanley Sporkin and Richard Aurelio may have more say about the MFY 2005 player salary budget than anyone directly affiliated with MLB. The three make up the arbitration panel that will decide the fate of the Yankees’ YES Network on Cablevision, which has 2.9 million subscribers in the NYC metro area and owned by former Red Sox bidder and Boy George hater, Charlie Dolan.
As Doug Pappas states on his blog,
The big issue is whether YES will air on the expanded basic cable tier, which will force all Cablevision subscribers to pay for it, or as a premium channel which most Cablevision subscribers won't buy. The arbitrators will also determine the price Cablevision must pay for YES, and the length of the contract between YES and Cablevision.
Moreover, if Cablevision wins and is able to move YES to a premium tier, clauses in YES's contracts with other New York-area cable systems will allow these operators to do the same. YES currently collects an average of $2.12 per month for every cable subscriber with expanded basic. If relegated to a premium tier then even at a higher price per customer, its revenues would be likely to fall by 50% or more.
It is estimated that the MFY are operating very close to break even in 2004 with a payroll of $185 million. If the ruling is in the MFY favor resulting in YES airing on the expanded basic cable tier like NESN, than it should increase the MFY revenue from cable operators and player’s payroll. If the panel sides with Cablevision, it will at least make Boy George think twice about adding players because he and his partners will likely be operating at a loss. An experience the MFY organization has probably not dealt with in sometime.
Wednesday, March 03, 2004
HISTORIANS SHOULD WATCH THEIR WORDS
If Barry Bonds and others used steroids to achieve record breaking levels, than asterisks will and should be next to their names in the books. But each name should have an asterisk because:
• Babe Ruth never played against any people of color.
• Ted Williams missed a few seasons in his prime to fight for our country.
• Bonds uses, arguably, a better/harder type of wood bat. He’ll get two stars next to his name.
• Steve Carlton pitched on a higher mound than Pedro Martinez.
• Curt Schilling extensively use of video allows him to better prepare for the opposition than Tom Seaver.
• Willie Mays never saw a split finger fastball from Roger Clemens.
And let’s not forget park factors. I can go on and on. My point is that the use of steroids should be viewed as just another factor in any analysis comparing players of different eras. The real issue is that “baseball” has deemed steroid use as an unfair advantage and thus, it improperly gave certain players and teams an advantage over others.
If Barry Bonds and others used steroids to achieve record breaking levels, than asterisks will and should be next to their names in the books. But each name should have an asterisk because:
• Babe Ruth never played against any people of color.
• Ted Williams missed a few seasons in his prime to fight for our country.
• Bonds uses, arguably, a better/harder type of wood bat. He’ll get two stars next to his name.
• Steve Carlton pitched on a higher mound than Pedro Martinez.
• Curt Schilling extensively use of video allows him to better prepare for the opposition than Tom Seaver.
• Willie Mays never saw a split finger fastball from Roger Clemens.
And let’s not forget park factors. I can go on and on. My point is that the use of steroids should be viewed as just another factor in any analysis comparing players of different eras. The real issue is that “baseball” has deemed steroid use as an unfair advantage and thus, it improperly gave certain players and teams an advantage over others.
FANS DO MATTER
Scott Williamson tells Jeff Horrigan that we, fans, played a part in his decision to drop his demand for a trade.
…Williamson was caught off guard by the passion and intense interest that New Englanders have for the Sox. Living just a few blocks from Fenway Park, he likened his walk to work to a stroll down the red carpet.
``It was awesome,'' the right-hander said. ``My wife and my parents and her parents were just amazed by it. There are all of these people lining the street and cops on horses and they form this long line that you have to walk through to get into the park. It's such a great feeling.''
``To play in Fenway Park in front of a sold-out crowd all the time is amazing, but I can't even explain what it was like in the playoffs,'' Williamson said. ``When the fans were standing and I struck out a guy, it sounded like an airplane was flying right over my head.''
Scott Williamson tells Jeff Horrigan that we, fans, played a part in his decision to drop his demand for a trade.
…Williamson was caught off guard by the passion and intense interest that New Englanders have for the Sox. Living just a few blocks from Fenway Park, he likened his walk to work to a stroll down the red carpet.
``It was awesome,'' the right-hander said. ``My wife and my parents and her parents were just amazed by it. There are all of these people lining the street and cops on horses and they form this long line that you have to walk through to get into the park. It's such a great feeling.''
``To play in Fenway Park in front of a sold-out crowd all the time is amazing, but I can't even explain what it was like in the playoffs,'' Williamson said. ``When the fans were standing and I struck out a guy, it sounded like an airplane was flying right over my head.''
Tuesday, March 02, 2004
COMING TO THE SOX
The following is great stuff from Paul Hagen and the Philadelphia Daily News from the mouth of Curt Schilling.
"That was a huge part of the attraction," he said. "I assessed the potential teams, all the pros and cons. And the Red Sox had one thing that no other team could offer. Instead of looking at it as a negative, I looked at it as a positive. The chance to step up and help this team (win) the World Series for the first time in 86 years.
"I've established myself by being at my best when it's on the line. People say I like the attention. It's not that. It's that I like to succeed when it's do or die. I went after it harder this winter than I've ever gone after it before, because it's the first time I've been in a win-or-else situation. We're not allowed to lose. And I love that."
"If we lose, it's really going to suck. Because these fans have welcomed me with open arms," he said. "I know as soon as I don't do as well as they expect they're going to be all over me. But that's all right, too.
"It's different here. It truly is. There are whole generations of fans, from children to their grandparents. It's like another element, another set of eyes watching you all the time."
The following is great stuff from Paul Hagen and the Philadelphia Daily News from the mouth of Curt Schilling.
"That was a huge part of the attraction," he said. "I assessed the potential teams, all the pros and cons. And the Red Sox had one thing that no other team could offer. Instead of looking at it as a negative, I looked at it as a positive. The chance to step up and help this team (win) the World Series for the first time in 86 years.
"I've established myself by being at my best when it's on the line. People say I like the attention. It's not that. It's that I like to succeed when it's do or die. I went after it harder this winter than I've ever gone after it before, because it's the first time I've been in a win-or-else situation. We're not allowed to lose. And I love that."
"If we lose, it's really going to suck. Because these fans have welcomed me with open arms," he said. "I know as soon as I don't do as well as they expect they're going to be all over me. But that's all right, too.
"It's different here. It truly is. There are whole generations of fans, from children to their grandparents. It's like another element, another set of eyes watching you all the time."
Monday, March 01, 2004
EVERY GAME COUNTS
The old media has totally focused on Sox-MFY and the internet media has flirted with the notion that Toronto could take one of the two top spot if all of the stars are aligned, but the club that could stand in the Sox way to a playoff berth is Baltimore. Yes, the O's and here is why.
Last season, the Sox only won one more game than they lost against Baltimore - 10 up and 9 down. The O's played the Sox tough; the run differential was only six runs in the Sox favor. The series was even. On the other hand, the MFY went 13-6-1 with a plus 42 runs (I do not understand the tie. Two ties last season! I was always thought there was "no crying in baseball" and tie games.)
According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, the three aforementioned members of the AL B-East have significantly improved their run differential over last season: the Sox + 108, MFY +105 and O's +93. The Sox are much improved but so are the O’s. It is not going to get any easier for the Sox when they take on the boys from Camden Yard (maybe my favorite park). The season series could make or break their shot at the playoffs if the MFY continue to dominate the Birds.
The old media has totally focused on Sox-MFY and the internet media has flirted with the notion that Toronto could take one of the two top spot if all of the stars are aligned, but the club that could stand in the Sox way to a playoff berth is Baltimore. Yes, the O's and here is why.
Last season, the Sox only won one more game than they lost against Baltimore - 10 up and 9 down. The O's played the Sox tough; the run differential was only six runs in the Sox favor. The series was even. On the other hand, the MFY went 13-6-1 with a plus 42 runs (I do not understand the tie. Two ties last season! I was always thought there was "no crying in baseball" and tie games.)
According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, the three aforementioned members of the AL B-East have significantly improved their run differential over last season: the Sox + 108, MFY +105 and O's +93. The Sox are much improved but so are the O’s. It is not going to get any easier for the Sox when they take on the boys from Camden Yard (maybe my favorite park). The season series could make or break their shot at the playoffs if the MFY continue to dominate the Birds.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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