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Monday, March 01, 2004

EVERY GAME COUNTS

The old media has totally focused on Sox-MFY and the internet media has flirted with the notion that Toronto could take one of the two top spot if all of the stars are aligned, but the club that could stand in the Sox way to a playoff berth is Baltimore. Yes, the O's and here is why.

Last season, the Sox only won one more game than they lost against Baltimore - 10 up and 9 down. The O's played the Sox tough; the run differential was only six runs in the Sox favor. The series was even. On the other hand, the MFY went 13-6-1 with a plus 42 runs (I do not understand the tie. Two ties last season! I was always thought there was "no crying in baseball" and tie games.)

According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, the three aforementioned members of the AL B-East have significantly improved their run differential over last season: the Sox + 108, MFY +105 and O's +93. The Sox are much improved but so are the O’s. It is not going to get any easier for the Sox when they take on the boys from Camden Yard (maybe my favorite park). The season series could make or break their shot at the playoffs if the MFY continue to dominate the Birds.


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