Friday, April 30, 2004
NEXT UP
If you combined the Rangers and Indians, you would have one good, young club. Texas can hit. Everyone reading this should know about Soriano, Blalock, Young and Teixeira (former Sox draft pick), but Fullmer and Mench can mash, as well when healthy. Texas' lineup is solid. The pitching is.......well suspect beside Cordero - the closer. Hopefully, the Sox won't be facing him.
The opposite is true for Cleveland. C.C. is a stud and should be 100% when taking on the Sox at the end of the series. Cliff Lee can pitch and Jason Davis was spectular the time I watched him pitch. The scouting report on Davis is just as glowing but like most young pitchers he has been inconsisent. On paper the pen looks solid with Riske, Stewart, and Jimenez but has had issue to date. Youngster, Rafael Betancourt has been tremendous in 13 innings of work in 2004. In 51 combined innings in 2003 and 2004, Betancourt has 51 strikeouts/13 BB/7 HR. Once he learns to keep the ball down and in the park, he could be lights out. The lineup.....is nothing special. A couple of good hitters, but know one a team pitches around.
UPDATE
I am heading to South Florida tomorrow for a Jimmy Buffett concert then to Key West for some beach relaxation. It will be nearly impossible to get tickets for Jimmy's show at Fenway so a trip was necessary. Of course, no posts until May 6th at the earliest. Upon my return, I’ll be getting into some Sox and roto number crunching since we have a decent amount of data.
I have never been to Key West. My first impression of the city was in a great movie Running Scared. Even though I have never been to the most southern point in the U.S.A., I hope to follow the lead of Billy Crystal and Gregory Hines characters by moving to Key West and owning a bar. I plan on eating and drinking way too much, getting sun burned, finishing Shout by Howard Bryant, reading Pearlman’s The Bad Guys Won, and maybe getting through a few chapters of Paul Krugman’s book. Oh - and meet beautiful and interesting women. As a betting man, I advise you to put your money down on just eating and drinking to excess.
BLOGLET
Thanks to all of the new people that signed up on Bloglet.
For those of you that have emailed me in the past, please add your email address to the bloglet. It would be easier for me to have one complete list of addresses. Thanks.
For those of you that have done neither, please add your email address to the bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost's free parking tips at Fenway and other future Red Sox related benefits (tickets, outings, etc.). An email regarding parking will be sent out after my return from Key West.
Again, please let me know if you are experiencing additional spam due to signing up with bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost updates. If this is the case, I will put together my own list.
If you combined the Rangers and Indians, you would have one good, young club. Texas can hit. Everyone reading this should know about Soriano, Blalock, Young and Teixeira (former Sox draft pick), but Fullmer and Mench can mash, as well when healthy. Texas' lineup is solid. The pitching is.......well suspect beside Cordero - the closer. Hopefully, the Sox won't be facing him.
The opposite is true for Cleveland. C.C. is a stud and should be 100% when taking on the Sox at the end of the series. Cliff Lee can pitch and Jason Davis was spectular the time I watched him pitch. The scouting report on Davis is just as glowing but like most young pitchers he has been inconsisent. On paper the pen looks solid with Riske, Stewart, and Jimenez but has had issue to date. Youngster, Rafael Betancourt has been tremendous in 13 innings of work in 2004. In 51 combined innings in 2003 and 2004, Betancourt has 51 strikeouts/13 BB/7 HR. Once he learns to keep the ball down and in the park, he could be lights out. The lineup.....is nothing special. A couple of good hitters, but know one a team pitches around.
UPDATE
I am heading to South Florida tomorrow for a Jimmy Buffett concert then to Key West for some beach relaxation. It will be nearly impossible to get tickets for Jimmy's show at Fenway so a trip was necessary. Of course, no posts until May 6th at the earliest. Upon my return, I’ll be getting into some Sox and roto number crunching since we have a decent amount of data.
I have never been to Key West. My first impression of the city was in a great movie Running Scared. Even though I have never been to the most southern point in the U.S.A., I hope to follow the lead of Billy Crystal and Gregory Hines characters by moving to Key West and owning a bar. I plan on eating and drinking way too much, getting sun burned, finishing Shout by Howard Bryant, reading Pearlman’s The Bad Guys Won, and maybe getting through a few chapters of Paul Krugman’s book. Oh - and meet beautiful and interesting women. As a betting man, I advise you to put your money down on just eating and drinking to excess.
BLOGLET
Thanks to all of the new people that signed up on Bloglet.
For those of you that have emailed me in the past, please add your email address to the bloglet. It would be easier for me to have one complete list of addresses. Thanks.
For those of you that have done neither, please add your email address to the bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost's free parking tips at Fenway and other future Red Sox related benefits (tickets, outings, etc.). An email regarding parking will be sent out after my return from Key West.
Again, please let me know if you are experiencing additional spam due to signing up with bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost updates. If this is the case, I will put together my own list.
Thursday, April 29, 2004
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Scott Rosenthal writes:
"Is our Triple A club full of guys that are ready to help us right now? No," Cashman says. "But from Double A on down, I'd match us up with anybody."
Ca$hman and the media once again are hyping up the MFY family farm.
The article goes on to mention Ben Sheets.
"Clubs continue to call and ask about him, but I'm not motivated to move him," Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin says. "In our market, you have to be open-minded about any deal, but you'd have to be overwhelmed with Sheets. I'm not into dealing for prospects at this time. I'm trying to help the Milwaukee Brewers instead of Huntsville (the team's Class AA affiliate)."
Melvin likely would seek multiple pitchers in a deal for Sheets, perhaps using the Astros' trade of closer Billy Wagner for three young arms as his model.
Perhaps this is solely Rosenthal’s notion, but Melvin or an associate could have gone “off the record” on the Brewers trade demands for Sheets. Bronson Arroyo, Lester/Cedeno and Malaska/Dinardo for Sheets would be comparable to the booty Houston received from Philly for Wagner. Acquiring Sheets would not only be a great deal now but over the next three seasons as well. He is becoming a sick pitcher.
Scott Rosenthal writes:
"Is our Triple A club full of guys that are ready to help us right now? No," Cashman says. "But from Double A on down, I'd match us up with anybody."
Ca$hman and the media once again are hyping up the MFY family farm.
The article goes on to mention Ben Sheets.
"Clubs continue to call and ask about him, but I'm not motivated to move him," Brewers G.M. Doug Melvin says. "In our market, you have to be open-minded about any deal, but you'd have to be overwhelmed with Sheets. I'm not into dealing for prospects at this time. I'm trying to help the Milwaukee Brewers instead of Huntsville (the team's Class AA affiliate)."
Melvin likely would seek multiple pitchers in a deal for Sheets, perhaps using the Astros' trade of closer Billy Wagner for three young arms as his model.
Perhaps this is solely Rosenthal’s notion, but Melvin or an associate could have gone “off the record” on the Brewers trade demands for Sheets. Bronson Arroyo, Lester/Cedeno and Malaska/Dinardo for Sheets would be comparable to the booty Houston received from Philly for Wagner. Acquiring Sheets would not only be a great deal now but over the next three seasons as well. He is becoming a sick pitcher.
Q&A on the Royals
Bob Dutton is the Royals beat writer for the Kansas City Star. Dutton was gracious enough to answer a few questions about the Sox upcoming opponents over Mother’s Day weekend at Fenway.
El Guapo’s Ghost: Are the Royals brass considering calling up David DeJesus to play left field for the struggling Guiel? At 31 and one good season under his belt, I would not expect the Royals to be patient with Guiel.
Bob Dutton: At this point, no, I don't think the Royals thinking of dumping Guiel for DeJesus. Guiel is a very affordable fit for them for the next few years. He's above average defensively, too, especially in left field.
[Editors note: DeJesus was added to the 25-man roster on April 24 prior to this exchange. Rich Thompson was designated for assignment. Guiel remains on the big league club. For more on this move, check out the link]
EGG: I read last year, probably in the Star, that one of Beltran's objectives in 2003 was to cut down on his strikeouts. He did. Has Beltran announced any of his personal goals for this season? He doesn't seem to have a glaring flaw in his game now.
BD: Beltran wants to increase his walks by laying off bad pitches. He's been terrific at this so far. [Beltran's BB/PA is .198 in 18 games this season. It has improved year each since 2001. Manny's career mark is .133 BB/PA.]
EGG: Will Zack Greinke act as the Royals trade deadline pick up for the stretch run?
BD: The Royals might use Greinke as you suggest. But I don't think that's an actual plan. If the Royals are contenders at the trade deadline, and they're certainly not playing like it now, I think they will make some short-term moves like last year, when they acquired Leskanic, Rondell White, Brian Anderson, etc. David Glass proved last year that he's willing to make short-term cash investments if the club has a chance to win.
EGG: Is the Royals front office taking a close look at their medical and training staff? It seems that over the past couple of seasons, players have had difficultly staying healthy (Sweeney, MacDougal, Affeldt, etc.).
BD: Those folks are under review all the time. Just like the players. But look around the league at how many players are on the disabled list, including 60-day DLs. The Royals aren't unique, but they are going through a bad stretch. The White Sox went through a real bad stretch a few years ago. The Dodgers have had multiple pitchers on the DL over the last couple of years. There are plenty of examples. But Royals fans usually only see what's happening to the Royals. The guys we're currently talking about -- Snyder, Hernandez and Asencio -- were all examined and operated on by the top guys in the country. It doesn't seem to me the Royals are cutting corners.
EGG: Is having mostly LHP in the rotation an advantage or disadvantage for the Royals? It should be an advantage against the Sox. Substituting Kapler and Burks for Ortiz and Nixon (when healthy) is helpful for the Sox opposition.
BD: The lefty rotation sure hasn't paid dividends so far. This wasn't part of any specific plan, either. Remember, a year ago, the Royals thought they were building a mostly righty staff with Hernandez and Asencio at Nos. 1 and 3.
EGG: Thanks! I really appreciate this. Beltran is a superstar. It is unfortunate that most of the country only watches him six times a year.
Bob Dutton is the Royals beat writer for the Kansas City Star. Dutton was gracious enough to answer a few questions about the Sox upcoming opponents over Mother’s Day weekend at Fenway.
El Guapo’s Ghost: Are the Royals brass considering calling up David DeJesus to play left field for the struggling Guiel? At 31 and one good season under his belt, I would not expect the Royals to be patient with Guiel.
Bob Dutton: At this point, no, I don't think the Royals thinking of dumping Guiel for DeJesus. Guiel is a very affordable fit for them for the next few years. He's above average defensively, too, especially in left field.
[Editors note: DeJesus was added to the 25-man roster on April 24 prior to this exchange. Rich Thompson was designated for assignment. Guiel remains on the big league club. For more on this move, check out the link]
EGG: I read last year, probably in the Star, that one of Beltran's objectives in 2003 was to cut down on his strikeouts. He did. Has Beltran announced any of his personal goals for this season? He doesn't seem to have a glaring flaw in his game now.
BD: Beltran wants to increase his walks by laying off bad pitches. He's been terrific at this so far. [Beltran's BB/PA is .198 in 18 games this season. It has improved year each since 2001. Manny's career mark is .133 BB/PA.]
EGG: Will Zack Greinke act as the Royals trade deadline pick up for the stretch run?
BD: The Royals might use Greinke as you suggest. But I don't think that's an actual plan. If the Royals are contenders at the trade deadline, and they're certainly not playing like it now, I think they will make some short-term moves like last year, when they acquired Leskanic, Rondell White, Brian Anderson, etc. David Glass proved last year that he's willing to make short-term cash investments if the club has a chance to win.
EGG: Is the Royals front office taking a close look at their medical and training staff? It seems that over the past couple of seasons, players have had difficultly staying healthy (Sweeney, MacDougal, Affeldt, etc.).
BD: Those folks are under review all the time. Just like the players. But look around the league at how many players are on the disabled list, including 60-day DLs. The Royals aren't unique, but they are going through a bad stretch. The White Sox went through a real bad stretch a few years ago. The Dodgers have had multiple pitchers on the DL over the last couple of years. There are plenty of examples. But Royals fans usually only see what's happening to the Royals. The guys we're currently talking about -- Snyder, Hernandez and Asencio -- were all examined and operated on by the top guys in the country. It doesn't seem to me the Royals are cutting corners.
EGG: Is having mostly LHP in the rotation an advantage or disadvantage for the Royals? It should be an advantage against the Sox. Substituting Kapler and Burks for Ortiz and Nixon (when healthy) is helpful for the Sox opposition.
BD: The lefty rotation sure hasn't paid dividends so far. This wasn't part of any specific plan, either. Remember, a year ago, the Royals thought they were building a mostly righty staff with Hernandez and Asencio at Nos. 1 and 3.
EGG: Thanks! I really appreciate this. Beltran is a superstar. It is unfortunate that most of the country only watches him six times a year.
Wednesday, April 28, 2004
WHAT IS EL GUAPO'S GHOST TO DO WITHOUT RED SOX BASEBALL ON BACK-TO-BACK NIGHTS?
Since the Sox game was going to be rained out, I dropped by my neighborhood tavern that subscribes to Extra Innings to watch both the MFY-A’s and KC-Texas games. KC-Texas was blacked out. Some higher power doesn’t want me to see Affeldt. It is possible that he will pitch next Saturday while I am in the bleachers at Fenway. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Anyway, I was still pretty pumped up to watch the A’s continue to hit the free falling Mussina. It was 4-4 in the fourth when I left my apartment. I had my fellow Sox fans on speed dial to engage in celebrating the fall of the MFY’s #1 starter. To my surprise, Mussina actually looked a bit better than in his previous starts. Certainly not the Moose of old throwing in the low 90s, but his command was much better. What did initiate calls was the lack of range from both the MFY head Sailor and Bernie – I didn’t hate you until your resigning with the MFY lead to DD trading for Carl Everett – Williams. I find it comical that Torre continues to trot Jeter out to play short when the “great” Manager finally has another option, A-Hole. I don’t want to waste any brain cells on trying to figure out what the MFY should do about their softball like defense; I just find it amusing and so do my buddies.
Random Rumblings:
• What’s the over/under on the number of broken chairs by Billy Beane last night?
• With an off day yesterday, Macha stays with Ricon when Rhodes and Bradford available.
• I find it sad that ESPN has a Legal Analyst.
• I met my first women named Roxy who wasn’t harassing me to accompany her into the VIP room.
Since the Sox game was going to be rained out, I dropped by my neighborhood tavern that subscribes to Extra Innings to watch both the MFY-A’s and KC-Texas games. KC-Texas was blacked out. Some higher power doesn’t want me to see Affeldt. It is possible that he will pitch next Saturday while I am in the bleachers at Fenway. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Anyway, I was still pretty pumped up to watch the A’s continue to hit the free falling Mussina. It was 4-4 in the fourth when I left my apartment. I had my fellow Sox fans on speed dial to engage in celebrating the fall of the MFY’s #1 starter. To my surprise, Mussina actually looked a bit better than in his previous starts. Certainly not the Moose of old throwing in the low 90s, but his command was much better. What did initiate calls was the lack of range from both the MFY head Sailor and Bernie – I didn’t hate you until your resigning with the MFY lead to DD trading for Carl Everett – Williams. I find it comical that Torre continues to trot Jeter out to play short when the “great” Manager finally has another option, A-Hole. I don’t want to waste any brain cells on trying to figure out what the MFY should do about their softball like defense; I just find it amusing and so do my buddies.
Random Rumblings:
• What’s the over/under on the number of broken chairs by Billy Beane last night?
• With an off day yesterday, Macha stays with Ricon when Rhodes and Bradford available.
• I find it sad that ESPN has a Legal Analyst.
• I met my first women named Roxy who wasn’t harassing me to accompany her into the VIP room.
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
BLOGLET
For those of you that have emailed me in the past, please add your email address to the bloglet. It would be easier for me to have one complete list of addresses. Thanks.
For those of you that have done neither, please add your email address to the bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost's free parking tips at Fenway and other future Red Sox related benefits (tickets, outings, etc.).
Again, please let me know if you are experiencing additional spam due to signing up with bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost updates. If this is the case, I will put together my own list.
Now onto Ben&Jerry's for my free cone.
For those of you that have emailed me in the past, please add your email address to the bloglet. It would be easier for me to have one complete list of addresses. Thanks.
For those of you that have done neither, please add your email address to the bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost's free parking tips at Fenway and other future Red Sox related benefits (tickets, outings, etc.).
Again, please let me know if you are experiencing additional spam due to signing up with bloglet for El Guapo's Ghost updates. If this is the case, I will put together my own list.
Now onto Ben&Jerry's for my free cone.
Rem Dog in a chat said,
First of all, the date Nomar will return is still up in the air, but whenever he is ready to return, I am quite sure that Pokey Reese will be the second baseman. They knew what they were getting with both of these players and so far both have lived up to expectations…
Remy doesn’t even mention the possibility of a platoon based on the starting pitcher. Pokey Reese is only more valuable than Mark Bellhorn when Derek Lowe is pitching. The groundball to second base machine is aided tremendously with Pokey. But Pedro, Schilling and Wake are all above average strikeout and neutral ground/fly ball pitchers. Thus, they do not allow many grounds balls limiting the opportunities for Pokey’s play in the field to be a factor. Bellhorn’s better offensive package is more valuable than Pokey’s primarily defensive value at second three out of four nights at the ballpark.
One of my favorite baseball columnists, Joe Sheenan of Baseball Prospectus and MFY fan has learned over the weekend that…
1. The Sox are much, much deeper than the Yankees are.
2. The Yankees' rotation doesn't stand up to the hype.
3. The Sox may have the best bullpen in baseball.
Joe concludes with...
Worrying about the offense, at least the name guys, is ridiculous…The stars make for an easy target, but the Yankees have bigger problems, ones that aren't going away and ones that can't be fixed from within the organization.
Here is hoping the MFY panic and strike early getting Kris Benson for Dioner Navarro in May eliminating their chances of scoring a better prize (Randy Johnson or Ben Sheets).
First of all, the date Nomar will return is still up in the air, but whenever he is ready to return, I am quite sure that Pokey Reese will be the second baseman. They knew what they were getting with both of these players and so far both have lived up to expectations…
Remy doesn’t even mention the possibility of a platoon based on the starting pitcher. Pokey Reese is only more valuable than Mark Bellhorn when Derek Lowe is pitching. The groundball to second base machine is aided tremendously with Pokey. But Pedro, Schilling and Wake are all above average strikeout and neutral ground/fly ball pitchers. Thus, they do not allow many grounds balls limiting the opportunities for Pokey’s play in the field to be a factor. Bellhorn’s better offensive package is more valuable than Pokey’s primarily defensive value at second three out of four nights at the ballpark.
One of my favorite baseball columnists, Joe Sheenan of Baseball Prospectus and MFY fan has learned over the weekend that…
1. The Sox are much, much deeper than the Yankees are.
2. The Yankees' rotation doesn't stand up to the hype.
3. The Sox may have the best bullpen in baseball.
Joe concludes with...
Worrying about the offense, at least the name guys, is ridiculous…The stars make for an easy target, but the Yankees have bigger problems, ones that aren't going away and ones that can't be fixed from within the organization.
Here is hoping the MFY panic and strike early getting Kris Benson for Dioner Navarro in May eliminating their chances of scoring a better prize (Randy Johnson or Ben Sheets).
Monday, April 26, 2004
11%
After the weekend, there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but the Sox have only played a little over 11% (18 of 162) of their regular season games. Baseball is a marathon not a sprint. I am trying not to get carried away with the highs and lows of 162+ games. A sweep in the Bronx without Nomar, Nixon and BK is certainly encouraging as well as Petey making back-to-back brilliant starts, accompanied with the fact that Manny is finally “trying to do [his] best.” But it is still April. I want the Sox to win eleven out of nineteen in October.
After the weekend, there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but the Sox have only played a little over 11% (18 of 162) of their regular season games. Baseball is a marathon not a sprint. I am trying not to get carried away with the highs and lows of 162+ games. A sweep in the Bronx without Nomar, Nixon and BK is certainly encouraging as well as Petey making back-to-back brilliant starts, accompanied with the fact that Manny is finally “trying to do [his] best.” But it is still April. I want the Sox to win eleven out of nineteen in October.
Friday, April 23, 2004
MFY ISSUES
It has been reported nearly everywhere that the MFY have yet to select a starter for Sunday’s game to oppose Pedro. It has come down to Donovan Osborne (no relation to Ozzy?) and Javy Vazquez on three days rest. I think either pitcher will be ripe for the pickin’ come Sunday. The bigger problem for the MFY is beyond Sunday’s game versus the Sox.
In the short term, the MFY have only a need for a fifth starter once or twice before Jon Lieber is likely ready in mid-May. It becomes a huge problem if Lieber has a set back in one of his rehab starts. Regardless of Lieber, the long-term implication of the season ending injury to Jorge DePaula is it eliminates one of the two trading chips for Ca$hman. Dioner Navarvo would have to be included in any deal for a Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Odalis Perez type of starter. On the negative side, it probably speeds up the likelihood that Boy George flat out buys Kris Benson from the Pirates.
Even though Mussina performed well after the first inning last night, the MFY have to be concerned. When excluding his first two starts - in and post Japan, Mussina’s line is below:
19.1 innings, 23 hits, 12 runs, 10 earned, 3 dingers, 9 BB, 13 K
Those are not good numbers for any pitcher; let alone your club’s #1. At 35, is age beginning to catch up to Moose? Is it the number of innings the horse has thrown over the years (Mussina has not pitched less than 200 innings since 1994) starting to affect his performance? Is the pressure of being the #1 guy in NY getting to him; the rumor was he did not like being the GUY in Baltimore? Let’s hope the answer is D) all of the above.
FANTASY SLEEPERS
Two out of three is not bad. I am not counting Carl Everett since he has spent most of the season on the DL. Only Everett’s teammate, Brad Wilkerson, has had a tough start to the season hitting 229/373/354 with four runs scored, one homer and stolen bag. The plate discipline is still apparent. He will break out of this slump.
Adam Dunn has been on fire hitting 356/525/867 with 11 runs, seven big flys, 11 ribbies. It is unlikely that his average will remain above 300 but his runs and rbi numbers should increase once he is moved up in the batting order. Dunn is for real.
Craig Wilson is 352/417/685 for the Pirates with four homers. Since Wilson is the only real bat in the lineup, his run and rbi numbers are likely to be below your average fantasy outfielder or first baseman but he is a steal at catcher.
SCHILLING SHELLING
A buddy writes:
What's up with Francona leaving Shilling in last night to pitch the 8th? After how many pitches, 115? Should have been out after 7.
El Guapo’s Ghost reply:
It is easy to make that call now. Schilling did not appear to be fatigued. Foulke and likely Embree were not available. One would think that Timlin and Williamson were the guys for final two innings, but Malaska was warming up which makes me think that Tito did not want to use Timlin (don't know why and should be the real question) and Williamson was only good for an inning. If this is the case, it comes down to Schilling or Baked mAlaskan. I'll take Schilling.
UPDATE
I decided not to write about my last two weekends following the Sox live. Other than a couple of funny moments in the stands, it would just be recycling what other bloggers have done. No need folks. The site format should be revised over the weekend with new links.
SOX TICKETS
Click on link for a pair of Loge Box seats at Fenway versus the Blue Jays on Saturday, May 22nd.
It has been reported nearly everywhere that the MFY have yet to select a starter for Sunday’s game to oppose Pedro. It has come down to Donovan Osborne (no relation to Ozzy?) and Javy Vazquez on three days rest. I think either pitcher will be ripe for the pickin’ come Sunday. The bigger problem for the MFY is beyond Sunday’s game versus the Sox.
In the short term, the MFY have only a need for a fifth starter once or twice before Jon Lieber is likely ready in mid-May. It becomes a huge problem if Lieber has a set back in one of his rehab starts. Regardless of Lieber, the long-term implication of the season ending injury to Jorge DePaula is it eliminates one of the two trading chips for Ca$hman. Dioner Navarvo would have to be included in any deal for a Randy Johnson, Ben Sheets, Odalis Perez type of starter. On the negative side, it probably speeds up the likelihood that Boy George flat out buys Kris Benson from the Pirates.
Even though Mussina performed well after the first inning last night, the MFY have to be concerned. When excluding his first two starts - in and post Japan, Mussina’s line is below:
19.1 innings, 23 hits, 12 runs, 10 earned, 3 dingers, 9 BB, 13 K
Those are not good numbers for any pitcher; let alone your club’s #1. At 35, is age beginning to catch up to Moose? Is it the number of innings the horse has thrown over the years (Mussina has not pitched less than 200 innings since 1994) starting to affect his performance? Is the pressure of being the #1 guy in NY getting to him; the rumor was he did not like being the GUY in Baltimore? Let’s hope the answer is D) all of the above.
FANTASY SLEEPERS
Two out of three is not bad. I am not counting Carl Everett since he has spent most of the season on the DL. Only Everett’s teammate, Brad Wilkerson, has had a tough start to the season hitting 229/373/354 with four runs scored, one homer and stolen bag. The plate discipline is still apparent. He will break out of this slump.
Adam Dunn has been on fire hitting 356/525/867 with 11 runs, seven big flys, 11 ribbies. It is unlikely that his average will remain above 300 but his runs and rbi numbers should increase once he is moved up in the batting order. Dunn is for real.
Craig Wilson is 352/417/685 for the Pirates with four homers. Since Wilson is the only real bat in the lineup, his run and rbi numbers are likely to be below your average fantasy outfielder or first baseman but he is a steal at catcher.
SCHILLING SHELLING
A buddy writes:
What's up with Francona leaving Shilling in last night to pitch the 8th? After how many pitches, 115? Should have been out after 7.
El Guapo’s Ghost reply:
It is easy to make that call now. Schilling did not appear to be fatigued. Foulke and likely Embree were not available. One would think that Timlin and Williamson were the guys for final two innings, but Malaska was warming up which makes me think that Tito did not want to use Timlin (don't know why and should be the real question) and Williamson was only good for an inning. If this is the case, it comes down to Schilling or Baked mAlaskan. I'll take Schilling.
UPDATE
I decided not to write about my last two weekends following the Sox live. Other than a couple of funny moments in the stands, it would just be recycling what other bloggers have done. No need folks. The site format should be revised over the weekend with new links.
SOX TICKETS
Click on link for a pair of Loge Box seats at Fenway versus the Blue Jays on Saturday, May 22nd.
Thursday, April 22, 2004
The last time the Sox faced Ted Lilly, Toronto's starter last night, Damon fouled a ball off his left knee April 9 and was forced out of the game in the fourth inning. Damon also missed the next two games. So with Damon's knee still recovering from the injury, the Sox opted against exposing him to more of Lilly's stuff.
Or is the reason the number of bonehead plays he has been making like misplaying fly balls and forgetting the number of outs on the bases?
BTW, over the last three seasons, Kapler is 280/3388/441 and Damon is 280/337/414 against southpaws so splits were not a factor. In general based on the numbers, the best lineup would have had Damon, Kapler in the outfield and Millar at first with Ortiz on the bench. Mo Lite has historically been awful against LHP 213/265/413. Burks should be penciled in the lineup for Ortiz not Damon.
I really don’t like sh!tting on Damon or anyone, but the mainstream media is out to lunch on this one. I badly want the Damon who sprayed balls around Kauffman Stadium at a tune of 327/382/495 in 2000. If memory serves, Damon had a 4-for-4 or 5-for-5 game against the Sox at Fenway…just a huge game, which was a factor that contributed to Double D overpaying for the average centerfielder.
Other notes:
• Manny is Pedro’s spokesperson. Is Manny a better speaker than W?
• Steroids don’t help much with pitch recognition and plate discipline. Bonds is sick.
• MFY fans bought me a shot last night. They all aren’t that evil.
Or is the reason the number of bonehead plays he has been making like misplaying fly balls and forgetting the number of outs on the bases?
BTW, over the last three seasons, Kapler is 280/3388/441 and Damon is 280/337/414 against southpaws so splits were not a factor. In general based on the numbers, the best lineup would have had Damon, Kapler in the outfield and Millar at first with Ortiz on the bench. Mo Lite has historically been awful against LHP 213/265/413. Burks should be penciled in the lineup for Ortiz not Damon.
I really don’t like sh!tting on Damon or anyone, but the mainstream media is out to lunch on this one. I badly want the Damon who sprayed balls around Kauffman Stadium at a tune of 327/382/495 in 2000. If memory serves, Damon had a 4-for-4 or 5-for-5 game against the Sox at Fenway…just a huge game, which was a factor that contributed to Double D overpaying for the average centerfielder.
Other notes:
• Manny is Pedro’s spokesperson. Is Manny a better speaker than W?
• Steroids don’t help much with pitch recognition and plate discipline. Bonds is sick.
• MFY fans bought me a shot last night. They all aren’t that evil.
Wednesday, April 21, 2004
SOX TICKETS FOR FENWAY
Click on link for a pair of Loge Box seats at Fenway versus the Blue Jays on Saturday, May 22nd.
Click on link for a pair of Loge Box seats at Fenway versus the Blue Jays on Saturday, May 22nd.
IT IS NOT HEALTHY
One man, which I have never met, should not have the impact Pedro Martinez has on my mood for six month. It certainly is not healthy. Petey’s influence was heightened once I paid $20 for his stats. Okay, the above were overstatements. I am not that sick but it brought me great joy to see Petey get his groove back in a critical APRIL outing.
"He doesn't appear to be throwing as hard," Tosca said. "His arm angle seems to be lower than I've seen him in the past. He's pitching around 88, 89; I've seen him 93, 94, with his arm angle a little higher.
…Usually when a guy goes lower, it makes him feel better when he turns the ball loose."
"One thing about Pedro's changeup, he has such great arm speed, it's going to be tough to recognize, even if he's throwing 85," Tosca said.
Those are encouraging words from an un-bias professional. But is a 5-8 mph difference enough to fool major league hitters?
As the weather warms, I think the question will be moot. Pedro will consistently throw in the low-90s similar to last season. The issue will be control of all of his pitches as Pedro will not be able to consistently throw fastballs by hitters like he could in his heyday. As I have said before, we are not going to see the Super Freak (“I’m Rick James, bitch!”) from 1999 and 2000; just currently one of the best pitchers in the world, not of all-time.
Other Notes and Questions:
• Did last night’s broadcast miss like 10 pitches? Very poor.
• Did Rock Star/Jesus/Unfrozen Caveman with “Boy band good looks,” according to Joe Buck, miss play two balls last night because he attended the B’s game arriving in Toronto the same day as the game? Only the Herald reported that he attended the game, even though he had significant camera time during the B’s game. Is Damon getting another free pass from the big bad Boston media?
• It appeared that Pedro only threw fastballs away to RHB.
• Was Bellhorn’s strike three call a make-up for the balk?
• I want to eat, drink and be merry at The Keg in Toronto.
• Did the Jays change attractive female servers for the patrons directly behind home plate at the SkyDome this off season?
• The Daily Show last night was awesome. I encourage folks to check out the rerun tonight at 7pm on Comedy Central. The bit on Colin Powell’s action figure is piss in your pants funny.
One man, which I have never met, should not have the impact Pedro Martinez has on my mood for six month. It certainly is not healthy. Petey’s influence was heightened once I paid $20 for his stats. Okay, the above were overstatements. I am not that sick but it brought me great joy to see Petey get his groove back in a critical APRIL outing.
"He doesn't appear to be throwing as hard," Tosca said. "His arm angle seems to be lower than I've seen him in the past. He's pitching around 88, 89; I've seen him 93, 94, with his arm angle a little higher.
…Usually when a guy goes lower, it makes him feel better when he turns the ball loose."
"One thing about Pedro's changeup, he has such great arm speed, it's going to be tough to recognize, even if he's throwing 85," Tosca said.
Those are encouraging words from an un-bias professional. But is a 5-8 mph difference enough to fool major league hitters?
As the weather warms, I think the question will be moot. Pedro will consistently throw in the low-90s similar to last season. The issue will be control of all of his pitches as Pedro will not be able to consistently throw fastballs by hitters like he could in his heyday. As I have said before, we are not going to see the Super Freak (“I’m Rick James, bitch!”) from 1999 and 2000; just currently one of the best pitchers in the world, not of all-time.
Other Notes and Questions:
• Did last night’s broadcast miss like 10 pitches? Very poor.
• Did Rock Star/Jesus/Unfrozen Caveman with “Boy band good looks,” according to Joe Buck, miss play two balls last night because he attended the B’s game arriving in Toronto the same day as the game? Only the Herald reported that he attended the game, even though he had significant camera time during the B’s game. Is Damon getting another free pass from the big bad Boston media?
• It appeared that Pedro only threw fastballs away to RHB.
• Was Bellhorn’s strike three call a make-up for the balk?
• I want to eat, drink and be merry at The Keg in Toronto.
• Did the Jays change attractive female servers for the patrons directly behind home plate at the SkyDome this off season?
• The Daily Show last night was awesome. I encourage folks to check out the rerun tonight at 7pm on Comedy Central. The bit on Colin Powell’s action figure is piss in your pants funny.
Tuesday, April 20, 2004
WHO'S SAYS CHANGE IS TOUGH?
My buddy's sister had a baby yesterday so our return plans back to Burlington changed. I was supposed to give a career talk at SMC but with no way back to Vermont that did not happen so I have a couple a minutes to post.
This was a wonderful weekend. Later this week, I'll have a full recap of my last two weekends in Baltimore and Boston following the Sox. I will also be updating my template changing links and the format some. On Friday, I'll take a look at my fantasy sleepers production through the first couple of weeks. Next week before I head to south Florida, I hope to have a couple of Q&As among other posts.
If you enjoy El Guapo's Ghost, please sign up to the right on bloglet. I don't think it shoots out spam. If it does, please let me know and I will create my own reader email update list.
Thanks to Jess, Mary Beth, and Sarah for putting me up in Beantown.
My buddy's sister had a baby yesterday so our return plans back to Burlington changed. I was supposed to give a career talk at SMC but with no way back to Vermont that did not happen so I have a couple a minutes to post.
This was a wonderful weekend. Later this week, I'll have a full recap of my last two weekends in Baltimore and Boston following the Sox. I will also be updating my template changing links and the format some. On Friday, I'll take a look at my fantasy sleepers production through the first couple of weeks. Next week before I head to south Florida, I hope to have a couple of Q&As among other posts.
If you enjoy El Guapo's Ghost, please sign up to the right on bloglet. I don't think it shoots out spam. If it does, please let me know and I will create my own reader email update list.
Thanks to Jess, Mary Beth, and Sarah for putting me up in Beantown.
Friday, April 16, 2004
A FEW MORE NOTES…
before the first battle between baseball superpowers commences.
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus is reporting that…
Things are looking very good for Trot Nixon. His extended stay in Miami hasn't set back his timetable. After a pair of successful batting practice sessions, Nixon is moving to the Red Sox's Ft. Myers rehab facility. He'll continue his extensive rehab program with Sox trainers, not just for the next weeks, but if he hopes to stay healthy, he'll have to make this part of his daily routine. Nixon could be back in Boston's lineup as early as May 1, but it's more likely that it will be a week to 10 days after that.
If Jack Cust is not claimed by Cleveland or Detroit, don’t be surprised to see Theo make a deal for the LH DH. The Dauber situation, resulting in an open slot for a position player on the 25-man, could lead to scoring Cust - a high OBP bat with power potential making the minimum.
I find it very interesting that MFY are wondering about A-Hole’s Fenway fan reception. It is great they are concerned about us rather than Manny, Schilling, Mo Light and rest of their opponents.
But Mike Mussina disagreed, telling the New York Post, "He's going to be treated like a former Red Sox and he was never even in uniform for 15 minutes. He's going to be treated like a deserter."
"There's years of hatred, that doesn't just disappear," Jeter said, adding, "regardless of how they feel about me, there's enough to go around."
I want to hear:
"A-HOLE-------A-HOLE-------A-HOLE------HAS NO ROD"
I’m heading to Boston tomorrow for the day game hanging out through Tuesday. I’ll also be attending the Marathon Monday game. I will probably be the only one with an El Guapo t-shirt on his/her back. It is highly unlikely that I’ll be posting anything until the end of next week…well nothing that makes any sense…12 or 16 once curls are on the agenda along with taking in a great experience. IT'S ON!
before the first battle between baseball superpowers commences.
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus is reporting that…
Things are looking very good for Trot Nixon. His extended stay in Miami hasn't set back his timetable. After a pair of successful batting practice sessions, Nixon is moving to the Red Sox's Ft. Myers rehab facility. He'll continue his extensive rehab program with Sox trainers, not just for the next weeks, but if he hopes to stay healthy, he'll have to make this part of his daily routine. Nixon could be back in Boston's lineup as early as May 1, but it's more likely that it will be a week to 10 days after that.
If Jack Cust is not claimed by Cleveland or Detroit, don’t be surprised to see Theo make a deal for the LH DH. The Dauber situation, resulting in an open slot for a position player on the 25-man, could lead to scoring Cust - a high OBP bat with power potential making the minimum.
I find it very interesting that MFY are wondering about A-Hole’s Fenway fan reception. It is great they are concerned about us rather than Manny, Schilling, Mo Light and rest of their opponents.
But Mike Mussina disagreed, telling the New York Post, "He's going to be treated like a former Red Sox and he was never even in uniform for 15 minutes. He's going to be treated like a deserter."
"There's years of hatred, that doesn't just disappear," Jeter said, adding, "regardless of how they feel about me, there's enough to go around."
I want to hear:
"A-HOLE-------A-HOLE-------A-HOLE------HAS NO ROD"
I’m heading to Boston tomorrow for the day game hanging out through Tuesday. I’ll also be attending the Marathon Monday game. I will probably be the only one with an El Guapo t-shirt on his/her back. It is highly unlikely that I’ll be posting anything until the end of next week…well nothing that makes any sense…12 or 16 once curls are on the agenda along with taking in a great experience. IT'S ON!
ALL TOGETHER NOW...EVERYONE TAKE THREE DEEP BREATHS.
Below is from rotoworld.com:
Pedro Martinez was tagged for seven runs in five innings tonight in a no-decision against the Orioles.
Martinez didn't look like he was hurting, but he clearly didn't have his best stuff on a cold night in Boston. He was also lit up by the Orioles early last season, giving up a career-high 10 runs on April 12, but that didn't have any lingering effects.
After his first three starts last season, Pedro's ERA was roughly 5.21 with his first game in a dome, the second in 52 degrees, then 64 degrees. Pedro's next start in the SkyDome will be very interesting.
Interesting tidbit from Bill James
Bear, Lawrence: Who would you say has the best "strike-zone eye" since Ted Williams? Is it Barry Bonds?
Bill James: Well, there's Rickey. . .he holds the walks record. But sure. . .Barry's phenomenal. And Kevin Youkilis, too.
FANTASY FRIDAY
For those of you roto folks that play in AL or NL only leagues, it is important to keep up on all trade rumors. If a player in a NL only league gets swapped to an AL club, he loose eligibility in your NL only roto world and vice versa. Mid-season trades can shift the balance of power in both MLB and fantasy standings.
MLB’s gossip queen, Peter Gammons, lists his top ten players most likely be moved. The list is repeated below with my comments:
1. Junior Griffey – no team is taking on that financial commitment with his lack of production, healthy issues and reported clubhouse baggage.
2. Jason Kendall – Seattle has been rumored to have interest, but again, his contract is huge. Kendall is owed $32.5 million from 2005-2007. It is unlikely that a deal gets done mid-season. Most club budgets are tight and every GM wants financial flexibility each winter.
3. Kris Benson – every team in the playoff hunt is looking for one more pitcher and Benson could be a name on the short list. Benson is due $6.1 million this season, but some combination of cash or a salary swap and prospects will be the asking price of Littlefield. The usual contending clubs will be interested in Benson’s service. Moderate roto impact.
4. Ben Sheets – huh? Has Gammons been hitting the bong with Manny at the Ritz? I guess anything is possible with Buddy or his daughter running the show. If Sheets is on the block, he is the July 31 top dog. He is a cheap, young, power pitcher with number #1 quality stuff who is three years from free agency. Every club will be salivating over Sheets. Two top prospects should be the ransom. Big fantasy impact.
5. Jose Cruz – it is more likely that Robert Fick with his one-year deal will get moved. Cruz’s two-year deal makes him less attractive to contending clubs in July. Roster and payroll flexibility come the winter is key. If he is moved, outfielders with Cruz’s production can be found on most free agent list.
6. Uggie Urbina – if UU is your closer, then go shopping now for someone else. Detroit will not continue to win games which should decrease the number of save opportunities for UU. Plus, he has not pitched for sometime. Check out every team in the AL Central and Toronto for saves.
7. Carlos Delagdo – loves Toronto, makes a ton, J.P. will want a ton; he is not going anywhere.
8. Jerry Hairston – rumors were floating around that the O’s had a deal in place with the MFY prior to his injury. It was sketchy internet chatter. Well, my own sketchy internet chatter has come to fruition. Hairston will likely be moved unless Roberts falls apart. They are rated about the same but Roberts has more potential and is cheaper. MFY, Oakland, Dodgers, Red Sox among others could be interested.
9. Jose Vidro – is probably not going to be on the move. Omar would need to be blown away with a deal. The trade would need to include at least a top upper level prospect without taking on any cash. Only Philly has a possible need at second, financial flexibility and prospects to deal. The MFY and Sox could strip their systems bare for Vidro as a part of the ongoing war but I think it is unlikely. Both superpowers could have bigger voids to fill in July. Even Billy Beane is unlikely able to find nearly $4 million to rent the second base All-Star. Vidro is a safe bet to stay in Montreal.
10. Steve Trachsel – no fantasy value.
Another “baseball insider”, Ken Rosenthal, writes
Moving Soriano to left field would enable the Rangers to return SS Michael Young to second base and pursue a free-agent shortstop like Edgar Renteria or Orlando Cabrera this winter. Soriano, projected to earn at least $8 million next season, remains a candidate to be traded. . . .
Soriano on the block is HUGE. Six teams could be in the running for his unique skill set:
• MFY – the PR for Texas and MLB would prevent this deal. Plus, the MFY don’t have any upper level pitching prospects.
• Red Sox – Is Henry willing to spend the cash? Would Theo part with the few prospects in the system for a player with a career OBP of 322? I think not.
• Dodgers – See Red Sox
• White Sox – Anything is possible with this direction less franchise – small market or large market, rebuilding or contending, Ginger or Mary Ann.
• Cubs – Carlos Zambrano for Soriano. If the Cubs could get another arm for the stretch run, I would do it. Sosa and Alou are coming to an end, terms of both production and contract. Soriano would provide the Cubs with the big bat they need in the short and long-term.
• Indians – Since Bradley is no longer Cleveland property, the organization lacks a franchise position player; Soriano would fill that void. The club may have to launder some salary (Omar Vizquel) but with the aging SS and Bob Wickman coming off the books after 2004, the Indians should be able to lock up Soriano. Jason Davis, Cliff Lee, and Jeremy Guthrie are also possible bait. The Rangers are desperate for young pitching.
Below is from rotoworld.com:
Pedro Martinez was tagged for seven runs in five innings tonight in a no-decision against the Orioles.
Martinez didn't look like he was hurting, but he clearly didn't have his best stuff on a cold night in Boston. He was also lit up by the Orioles early last season, giving up a career-high 10 runs on April 12, but that didn't have any lingering effects.
After his first three starts last season, Pedro's ERA was roughly 5.21 with his first game in a dome, the second in 52 degrees, then 64 degrees. Pedro's next start in the SkyDome will be very interesting.
Interesting tidbit from Bill James
Bear, Lawrence: Who would you say has the best "strike-zone eye" since Ted Williams? Is it Barry Bonds?
Bill James: Well, there's Rickey. . .he holds the walks record. But sure. . .Barry's phenomenal. And Kevin Youkilis, too.
FANTASY FRIDAY
For those of you roto folks that play in AL or NL only leagues, it is important to keep up on all trade rumors. If a player in a NL only league gets swapped to an AL club, he loose eligibility in your NL only roto world and vice versa. Mid-season trades can shift the balance of power in both MLB and fantasy standings.
MLB’s gossip queen, Peter Gammons, lists his top ten players most likely be moved. The list is repeated below with my comments:
1. Junior Griffey – no team is taking on that financial commitment with his lack of production, healthy issues and reported clubhouse baggage.
2. Jason Kendall – Seattle has been rumored to have interest, but again, his contract is huge. Kendall is owed $32.5 million from 2005-2007. It is unlikely that a deal gets done mid-season. Most club budgets are tight and every GM wants financial flexibility each winter.
3. Kris Benson – every team in the playoff hunt is looking for one more pitcher and Benson could be a name on the short list. Benson is due $6.1 million this season, but some combination of cash or a salary swap and prospects will be the asking price of Littlefield. The usual contending clubs will be interested in Benson’s service. Moderate roto impact.
4. Ben Sheets – huh? Has Gammons been hitting the bong with Manny at the Ritz? I guess anything is possible with Buddy or his daughter running the show. If Sheets is on the block, he is the July 31 top dog. He is a cheap, young, power pitcher with number #1 quality stuff who is three years from free agency. Every club will be salivating over Sheets. Two top prospects should be the ransom. Big fantasy impact.
5. Jose Cruz – it is more likely that Robert Fick with his one-year deal will get moved. Cruz’s two-year deal makes him less attractive to contending clubs in July. Roster and payroll flexibility come the winter is key. If he is moved, outfielders with Cruz’s production can be found on most free agent list.
6. Uggie Urbina – if UU is your closer, then go shopping now for someone else. Detroit will not continue to win games which should decrease the number of save opportunities for UU. Plus, he has not pitched for sometime. Check out every team in the AL Central and Toronto for saves.
7. Carlos Delagdo – loves Toronto, makes a ton, J.P. will want a ton; he is not going anywhere.
8. Jerry Hairston – rumors were floating around that the O’s had a deal in place with the MFY prior to his injury. It was sketchy internet chatter. Well, my own sketchy internet chatter has come to fruition. Hairston will likely be moved unless Roberts falls apart. They are rated about the same but Roberts has more potential and is cheaper. MFY, Oakland, Dodgers, Red Sox among others could be interested.
9. Jose Vidro – is probably not going to be on the move. Omar would need to be blown away with a deal. The trade would need to include at least a top upper level prospect without taking on any cash. Only Philly has a possible need at second, financial flexibility and prospects to deal. The MFY and Sox could strip their systems bare for Vidro as a part of the ongoing war but I think it is unlikely. Both superpowers could have bigger voids to fill in July. Even Billy Beane is unlikely able to find nearly $4 million to rent the second base All-Star. Vidro is a safe bet to stay in Montreal.
10. Steve Trachsel – no fantasy value.
Another “baseball insider”, Ken Rosenthal, writes
Moving Soriano to left field would enable the Rangers to return SS Michael Young to second base and pursue a free-agent shortstop like Edgar Renteria or Orlando Cabrera this winter. Soriano, projected to earn at least $8 million next season, remains a candidate to be traded. . . .
Soriano on the block is HUGE. Six teams could be in the running for his unique skill set:
• MFY – the PR for Texas and MLB would prevent this deal. Plus, the MFY don’t have any upper level pitching prospects.
• Red Sox – Is Henry willing to spend the cash? Would Theo part with the few prospects in the system for a player with a career OBP of 322? I think not.
• Dodgers – See Red Sox
• White Sox – Anything is possible with this direction less franchise – small market or large market, rebuilding or contending, Ginger or Mary Ann.
• Cubs – Carlos Zambrano for Soriano. If the Cubs could get another arm for the stretch run, I would do it. Sosa and Alou are coming to an end, terms of both production and contract. Soriano would provide the Cubs with the big bat they need in the short and long-term.
• Indians – Since Bradley is no longer Cleveland property, the organization lacks a franchise position player; Soriano would fill that void. The club may have to launder some salary (Omar Vizquel) but with the aging SS and Bob Wickman coming off the books after 2004, the Indians should be able to lock up Soriano. Jason Davis, Cliff Lee, and Jeremy Guthrie are also possible bait. The Rangers are desperate for young pitching.
Thursday, April 15, 2004
GREAT FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT
On average, a family of four will spend $155.52 for a day at big-league ballparks this year, up nearly 3 percent from 2003, according to a new study by Team Marketing Research in Chicago.
I don’t know about most parks but at Fenway and the Big O. A great evening of live MLB baseball can be enjoyed for much less than being reported.
The FCI - a gauge of the expense of tickets, parking, and refreshments for a family of four – at Fenway is $263.
Huh? Here is how I break it down:
Tickets - $80 (Lower Bleacher – the best buy at Fenway)
Parking - $ 0 (get to the area about two hours before to watch BP, get your kid a ball and park on the street for free, as if I would say which streets)
Refresh - $40 (not sure but $5 per dog, $3 per soda, $8 for a group pop corn and peanuts)
Total - $120
And even the bargain basement Montreal Expos - the league's least expensive team - will sock families for $100.
This one is just ridiculous.
Tickets - $24 (General Admission from a scalper at the Metro or Stadium parking exits without big crowds for most games you can pretty much have any seat you want)
Parking - $ 0 (park on a side street for free)
Refresh - $40 (not sure but $5 per dog, $3 per soda, $8 for a group pop corn and peanuts)
CAD - $84
USD - $65
It doesn't appear that anyone from this company actual went to a ballpark. Anyway you want to slice it; MLB is still the best bargain among the four major sports. MLB also holds its own against the movie industry as well.
Tickets - $32
Parking - $ 0
Refresh - $30 (not sure but $3 per candy, $3 per soda, $6 for a group pop corn)
Total - $62
$62 for only, at most, two hours of entertainment or $31 an hour compared to my Fenway scenario at $24 [$120/(2 hour BP + 3 hour game)] and Big at $20.66. On an hourly basis, MLB is a more cost effective entertainment choice for your family and in my opinion a far superior product.
Dauber is back
It is nice to see Dauber made it through waivers and is reporting to Pawtucket. It is amazing that 29 other teams passed on a cheap, lefty first baseman with power. Dauber has a nice bat to come off the bench for a contender, a stop-gap for a reloading club or a decent half of platoon player.
On average, a family of four will spend $155.52 for a day at big-league ballparks this year, up nearly 3 percent from 2003, according to a new study by Team Marketing Research in Chicago.
I don’t know about most parks but at Fenway and the Big O. A great evening of live MLB baseball can be enjoyed for much less than being reported.
The FCI - a gauge of the expense of tickets, parking, and refreshments for a family of four – at Fenway is $263.
Huh? Here is how I break it down:
Tickets - $80 (Lower Bleacher – the best buy at Fenway)
Parking - $ 0 (get to the area about two hours before to watch BP, get your kid a ball and park on the street for free, as if I would say which streets)
Refresh - $40 (not sure but $5 per dog, $3 per soda, $8 for a group pop corn and peanuts)
Total - $120
And even the bargain basement Montreal Expos - the league's least expensive team - will sock families for $100.
This one is just ridiculous.
Tickets - $24 (General Admission from a scalper at the Metro or Stadium parking exits without big crowds for most games you can pretty much have any seat you want)
Parking - $ 0 (park on a side street for free)
Refresh - $40 (not sure but $5 per dog, $3 per soda, $8 for a group pop corn and peanuts)
CAD - $84
USD - $65
It doesn't appear that anyone from this company actual went to a ballpark. Anyway you want to slice it; MLB is still the best bargain among the four major sports. MLB also holds its own against the movie industry as well.
Tickets - $32
Parking - $ 0
Refresh - $30 (not sure but $3 per candy, $3 per soda, $6 for a group pop corn)
Total - $62
$62 for only, at most, two hours of entertainment or $31 an hour compared to my Fenway scenario at $24 [$120/(2 hour BP + 3 hour game)] and Big at $20.66. On an hourly basis, MLB is a more cost effective entertainment choice for your family and in my opinion a far superior product.
Dauber is back
It is nice to see Dauber made it through waivers and is reporting to Pawtucket. It is amazing that 29 other teams passed on a cheap, lefty first baseman with power. Dauber has a nice bat to come off the bench for a contender, a stop-gap for a reloading club or a decent half of platoon player.
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
RAIN DELAY
Last night I watched the President instead of writing about my experiences in Baltimore. As some of you may know, I am not a fan of Bush, but he came off fairly well last night. I understand his reasonable position on Iraq, although I still disagree. My biggest concern is that Bush did not layout a plan to exit Iraq.
Okay. Okay. This is not a political blog; back to baseball.
Two nights in a row?
For selfish reasons, I would not mind getting a rainout tonight. As part of my tenth man package, I have a ticket to this evening’s game but will not be able to attend. If the game was rained out, it would likely be rescheduled as part of a day-night double header during the O’s final trip to Fenway in September. In that case, I would be able to go. I love double headers even day-night double dips. The best is the old school type – admission to two games for the price of one – but day-nighters are good as well. They allow you to get a good meal in between games or drink cheaper beer. I can certainly justify taking a day and half off for two games. One game is tough. On the flip side, it further screws up the Sox pitching schedule in the short-term. In the long-term, the club does not need to play two double headers before going into a MFY series.
Is Arte Moreno turning into Tom Hicks?
I am not going to analyze his deal in a stat/SABR/OBP manner because it is a no brainer. A club should not give a career 328 OBP hitter $48 million. But the deal still doesn’t make sense if you look at it through Anaheim’s eyes.
Anderson has been productive. He has driven in over 100 runs each of the past four seasons but a team pays for future production. Even if a club highly values RBIs, $48 million over four years for a 31 year-old corner outfielder playing center is too much in today’s market. It is only $2 million less than Vlad’s average annual value!
Allowing Anderson to walk after this season would have given the club the choice of moving Erstad back to center, where he has some value, and shop for a first baseman like Carlos Delagdo, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson. Anaheim could have also gone after the biggest prize next winter, Carlos Beltran. Moreno could have inked the best free agents in consecutive years. Both players being Latino would have fit nicely into Moreno’s marketing plan as well. Those possibilities are likely dead now.
Other than Vlad, Moreno has overpaid for each of his signings over the winter - Colon, Guillen, Escobar - and now Garrett Anderson. The Anderson deal provides evidence on the side of Nomar and the other Sox free agent to be-s’ case that the market has not dropped for All-Stars. Even in this new market, some clubs are still willing to pay.
Last night I watched the President instead of writing about my experiences in Baltimore. As some of you may know, I am not a fan of Bush, but he came off fairly well last night. I understand his reasonable position on Iraq, although I still disagree. My biggest concern is that Bush did not layout a plan to exit Iraq.
Okay. Okay. This is not a political blog; back to baseball.
Two nights in a row?
For selfish reasons, I would not mind getting a rainout tonight. As part of my tenth man package, I have a ticket to this evening’s game but will not be able to attend. If the game was rained out, it would likely be rescheduled as part of a day-night double header during the O’s final trip to Fenway in September. In that case, I would be able to go. I love double headers even day-night double dips. The best is the old school type – admission to two games for the price of one – but day-nighters are good as well. They allow you to get a good meal in between games or drink cheaper beer. I can certainly justify taking a day and half off for two games. One game is tough. On the flip side, it further screws up the Sox pitching schedule in the short-term. In the long-term, the club does not need to play two double headers before going into a MFY series.
Is Arte Moreno turning into Tom Hicks?
I am not going to analyze his deal in a stat/SABR/OBP manner because it is a no brainer. A club should not give a career 328 OBP hitter $48 million. But the deal still doesn’t make sense if you look at it through Anaheim’s eyes.
Anderson has been productive. He has driven in over 100 runs each of the past four seasons but a team pays for future production. Even if a club highly values RBIs, $48 million over four years for a 31 year-old corner outfielder playing center is too much in today’s market. It is only $2 million less than Vlad’s average annual value!
Allowing Anderson to walk after this season would have given the club the choice of moving Erstad back to center, where he has some value, and shop for a first baseman like Carlos Delagdo, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson. Anaheim could have also gone after the biggest prize next winter, Carlos Beltran. Moreno could have inked the best free agents in consecutive years. Both players being Latino would have fit nicely into Moreno’s marketing plan as well. Those possibilities are likely dead now.
Other than Vlad, Moreno has overpaid for each of his signings over the winter - Colon, Guillen, Escobar - and now Garrett Anderson. The Anderson deal provides evidence on the side of Nomar and the other Sox free agent to be-s’ case that the market has not dropped for All-Stars. Even in this new market, some clubs are still willing to pay.
Monday, April 12, 2004
B.J., PORN STAR AND THEO'S BIGGEST MISTAKE
My buddy emails me with the following:
"Bobby Jones couldn't hit brick wall. That guy sucks ass."
My reply:
B.J. is terrible and always has been.
Mendoza hiding his injury or whatever prior to the game was the reason Tito had to exercise B.J. onto the O’s. B.J. made the club out of Florida because he is likely to make it through waivers and accept a minor league assignment. B.J.’s suckieness gave the Sox roster flexibility. The other LHRP all have some kind of value.
Isn’t time to say goodbye to Theo’s biggest mistake? Is it cost effective for the training staff to continue to work on Mendoza? Couldn’t their time be used more effectively by focusing on rehabbing or analyzing Nomar, Trot, Kim’s injuries and preventing others?
The long game also brought on the probable end of Porn Star's days with the Sox, but the whole situation doesn’t pass the sniff test. The facts and reasonable deductions:
*After Williamson felt soreness warming up yesterday, the team decided he was not available. Thus, Williamson was available on Saturday after a day off giving the Sox at least three relievers (Williamson, B.J. and Foulke) at Tito’s disposal for Pedro’s start.
*Assuming Petey goes at least five, the trio should have been able to throw four innings. Plus, Malaska should have been able to go as well after throwing only 10 pitches on Friday.
*Schilling was taking the mound on Sunday. The odds of Petey and Curt both getting shelled back-to-back are slim so it is unlikely that the pen would be overly taxed for the remaining two games before a day off.
Hence, it was not necessary to bring up Castillo and designate Dauber for assignment. The Sox should have rolled the dice.
The only reasonable explanation for Castillo is that Williamson was not available on Saturday. If so, then questions need to be raised regarding the communication between the players, Sox medical and training staff, and management. Two possible issues (Mendoza and Williamson) in a week most likely have cost the Sox their only southpaw power threat off the bench. A questionable diagnosis cost the Sox Freddy Sanchez last summer too. Dirty Sanchez could have been used for a better player than Jeff Suckpan. The medical and training staff have done a good job in most cases, but is the recent rash of injuries a product of bad luck or something more?
My buddy emails me with the following:
"Bobby Jones couldn't hit brick wall. That guy sucks ass."
My reply:
B.J. is terrible and always has been.
Mendoza hiding his injury or whatever prior to the game was the reason Tito had to exercise B.J. onto the O’s. B.J. made the club out of Florida because he is likely to make it through waivers and accept a minor league assignment. B.J.’s suckieness gave the Sox roster flexibility. The other LHRP all have some kind of value.
Isn’t time to say goodbye to Theo’s biggest mistake? Is it cost effective for the training staff to continue to work on Mendoza? Couldn’t their time be used more effectively by focusing on rehabbing or analyzing Nomar, Trot, Kim’s injuries and preventing others?
The long game also brought on the probable end of Porn Star's days with the Sox, but the whole situation doesn’t pass the sniff test. The facts and reasonable deductions:
*After Williamson felt soreness warming up yesterday, the team decided he was not available. Thus, Williamson was available on Saturday after a day off giving the Sox at least three relievers (Williamson, B.J. and Foulke) at Tito’s disposal for Pedro’s start.
*Assuming Petey goes at least five, the trio should have been able to throw four innings. Plus, Malaska should have been able to go as well after throwing only 10 pitches on Friday.
*Schilling was taking the mound on Sunday. The odds of Petey and Curt both getting shelled back-to-back are slim so it is unlikely that the pen would be overly taxed for the remaining two games before a day off.
Hence, it was not necessary to bring up Castillo and designate Dauber for assignment. The Sox should have rolled the dice.
The only reasonable explanation for Castillo is that Williamson was not available on Saturday. If so, then questions need to be raised regarding the communication between the players, Sox medical and training staff, and management. Two possible issues (Mendoza and Williamson) in a week most likely have cost the Sox their only southpaw power threat off the bench. A questionable diagnosis cost the Sox Freddy Sanchez last summer too. Dirty Sanchez could have been used for a better player than Jeff Suckpan. The medical and training staff have done a good job in most cases, but is the recent rash of injuries a product of bad luck or something more?
Sunday, April 11, 2004
THANK YOU!
I wanted to thank all of my fellow bloggers that have linked El Guapo's Ghost. I will be returning the favor shortly.
To all of my new visitors, please continue to visit El Guapo's Ghost even though posts will not be daily over the next couple of weeks. Older posts have been added to the blog for your reading. The reason for the upcoming inactivity is that I spent four days in Baltimore (saw the long, cold, bad ending game at Camden) and need to work some long hours to catch up at the office. Plus, it is tax season and I scored tickets to the Patriots Day game so another long weekend is coming up.
To my older recurring visitors and everyone who have added comments and sent emails, please keep it up I really enjoy the feedback and discussion. Thanks! If you are looking for Sox tickets, I may be able to assist send me an email.
I wanted to thank all of my fellow bloggers that have linked El Guapo's Ghost. I will be returning the favor shortly.
To all of my new visitors, please continue to visit El Guapo's Ghost even though posts will not be daily over the next couple of weeks. Older posts have been added to the blog for your reading. The reason for the upcoming inactivity is that I spent four days in Baltimore (saw the long, cold, bad ending game at Camden) and need to work some long hours to catch up at the office. Plus, it is tax season and I scored tickets to the Patriots Day game so another long weekend is coming up.
To my older recurring visitors and everyone who have added comments and sent emails, please keep it up I really enjoy the feedback and discussion. Thanks! If you are looking for Sox tickets, I may be able to assist send me an email.
Wednesday, April 07, 2004
I participated in a roundtable discussion among Sox bloggers. We did not seem to disagree much which kind of surprises me. Anyway, it is an interesting read.
GUESS WHO?
Pitcher X IN HT ER SO BB HR
Player A 17 33 19 12 05 02
Player B 22 27 14 22 07 03
Guess who? Both lines combine spring and regular season 2004 stats.
Player B is Pedro and Player A is Mike Mussina. If RSN and the baseball world are concerned about Petey, then shouldn’t the MFY be worried about Mussina?
Speaking of the MFY, it was great watching them get kicked around again by the Devil Rays. I was living it up yesterday with the Sox on in the afternoon (I ducked out of work early), a quick meal, and then flipping between the MFY, Johan Santana on the mound, Barry Bonds at the plate and other games (PIP makes it twice as good). MLB Extra Innings would completely screw up my life. I would likely sit around all day and night watching ball games (probably half naked and un-showered) ordering delivery fast foods becoming fat, unemployed, and even more undesirable to the opposite sex than is the case right now. If I were to loose my hair, I would almost be the Vermont George Costanza without as interesting friends. I must not shell out the $149 for MLB Extra Innings.
FANTASY WEDNESDAY?
I am off to Baltimore today for a Sox game and tomfoolery in the mid-Atlantic so Wednesday is Friday for EGG.
Since not many games have been played, it is not worth me discussing player performance as a means to forecasting their fantasy production for the upcoming week. I’ll just throw out a couple of general tips:
• Park – know the extreme pitcher and hitters parks and plan your rosters accordingly. Coors isn’t just the only hitters park.
• Splits – know if your southpaw hitter can’t hit lefties and make the appropriate change. Even if you don’t have a replacement, it is sometimes better not to play a guy with a very poor split.
• Barry Bonds – the guy is going to hit a ton of bombs but depending on the number of games he plays his RBI and Run numbers may not be impressive. He will hit for a high average although it might not mean as much because Bonds could only get 300 at-bats (he could walk 200 times). If Bonds is on your club and you have enough home run hitters, I would put him on the trading block ASAP.
Pitcher X IN HT ER SO BB HR
Player A 17 33 19 12 05 02
Player B 22 27 14 22 07 03
Guess who? Both lines combine spring and regular season 2004 stats.
Player B is Pedro and Player A is Mike Mussina. If RSN and the baseball world are concerned about Petey, then shouldn’t the MFY be worried about Mussina?
Speaking of the MFY, it was great watching them get kicked around again by the Devil Rays. I was living it up yesterday with the Sox on in the afternoon (I ducked out of work early), a quick meal, and then flipping between the MFY, Johan Santana on the mound, Barry Bonds at the plate and other games (PIP makes it twice as good). MLB Extra Innings would completely screw up my life. I would likely sit around all day and night watching ball games (probably half naked and un-showered) ordering delivery fast foods becoming fat, unemployed, and even more undesirable to the opposite sex than is the case right now. If I were to loose my hair, I would almost be the Vermont George Costanza without as interesting friends. I must not shell out the $149 for MLB Extra Innings.
FANTASY WEDNESDAY?
I am off to Baltimore today for a Sox game and tomfoolery in the mid-Atlantic so Wednesday is Friday for EGG.
Since not many games have been played, it is not worth me discussing player performance as a means to forecasting their fantasy production for the upcoming week. I’ll just throw out a couple of general tips:
• Park – know the extreme pitcher and hitters parks and plan your rosters accordingly. Coors isn’t just the only hitters park.
• Splits – know if your southpaw hitter can’t hit lefties and make the appropriate change. Even if you don’t have a replacement, it is sometimes better not to play a guy with a very poor split.
• Barry Bonds – the guy is going to hit a ton of bombs but depending on the number of games he plays his RBI and Run numbers may not be impressive. He will hit for a high average although it might not mean as much because Bonds could only get 300 at-bats (he could walk 200 times). If Bonds is on your club and you have enough home run hitters, I would put him on the trading block ASAP.
Tuesday, April 06, 2004
UPADATE
Too much was written about Opening Day...so I didn't. Tomorrow will be roto talk, then I am off to Baltimore for the last game of the series and other "activities" in the Inner Harbor. I'll report back next week.
MLB EXTRA INNINGS PREVIEW
Observations while watching the Indians-Twins and Giants-Astros games last night:
• Barry Bonds is sick. He is so money and everyone knows it, but our old friend Jimy “butt bumping” Williams, who leaves in Oswalt to pitch to the greatest ballplayer of all-time and pays for it.
• Northeast Ohio and not Cleveland is used to describe the metro-area more times than not.
• C.C. could be special – don’t over use him, Mr. Wedge.
• It was nice to watch a good fielding team, the Twins; they all can flash the leather. Doug Menaslfjsftat is underrated. He may not hit for power, but he gets on base and I bet he saves a ton of runs picking poor throws.
• Chris Berman is done. Berman and Joe Morgan doing a Sox game would be very painful.
• The Cleveland announcers tried to relate every outcome of a batted ball in play to the new carpet at the Metrodome. It is was funny at first, then...I switched to Berman, then...to Jon Stewart.
• Fox Sports uses the same ad concept for all of their regional channels. New England sports fans aren’t special according to Fox. What B.S.
BLOGS
Alex Belth had an interview with Bill James. James reply to Belth’s question regarding his opinion on NYC and MFY is below:
BJ: Well, I love New York City, to begin with, and I wouldn't exactly say that I hate the Yankees. I root passionately against the Yankees, and I have since I was a small child. It's like, if you're watching a car race. . .if you hate somebody you root for them to have an accident. I've never rooted for the Yankees to have a car accident. I just want them to lose.
I guess I hate the MFY. A few days ago, I envisioned A-Hole pulling a Johnny Val knee collapsing experience and laughed to myself. Now, I am not wishing that A-Hole gets in a life threatening car accident, just a near career ending injury. Huh. Not sure what that says about me.
Does Ed have it right?
That is, we can't reverse, single-handedly, the media onslaught of the "absolutely obscene number of know-nothing broadcasters" who feed the self-fulfilling prophecy, but we can reject it for ourselves, on an individual level.
Again, I'm in no way suggesting we can't ever be critical or negative concerning what goes on in the field or elsewhere concerning the Boston Red Sox, but we need to dig deep to find the real issues of concern and not what we are simple told by way of the media to focus on or otherwise distract us.
I think so.
Too much was written about Opening Day...so I didn't. Tomorrow will be roto talk, then I am off to Baltimore for the last game of the series and other "activities" in the Inner Harbor. I'll report back next week.
MLB EXTRA INNINGS PREVIEW
Observations while watching the Indians-Twins and Giants-Astros games last night:
• Barry Bonds is sick. He is so money and everyone knows it, but our old friend Jimy “butt bumping” Williams, who leaves in Oswalt to pitch to the greatest ballplayer of all-time and pays for it.
• Northeast Ohio and not Cleveland is used to describe the metro-area more times than not.
• C.C. could be special – don’t over use him, Mr. Wedge.
• It was nice to watch a good fielding team, the Twins; they all can flash the leather. Doug Menaslfjsftat is underrated. He may not hit for power, but he gets on base and I bet he saves a ton of runs picking poor throws.
• Chris Berman is done. Berman and Joe Morgan doing a Sox game would be very painful.
• The Cleveland announcers tried to relate every outcome of a batted ball in play to the new carpet at the Metrodome. It is was funny at first, then...I switched to Berman, then...to Jon Stewart.
• Fox Sports uses the same ad concept for all of their regional channels. New England sports fans aren’t special according to Fox. What B.S.
BLOGS
Alex Belth had an interview with Bill James. James reply to Belth’s question regarding his opinion on NYC and MFY is below:
BJ: Well, I love New York City, to begin with, and I wouldn't exactly say that I hate the Yankees. I root passionately against the Yankees, and I have since I was a small child. It's like, if you're watching a car race. . .if you hate somebody you root for them to have an accident. I've never rooted for the Yankees to have a car accident. I just want them to lose.
I guess I hate the MFY. A few days ago, I envisioned A-Hole pulling a Johnny Val knee collapsing experience and laughed to myself. Now, I am not wishing that A-Hole gets in a life threatening car accident, just a near career ending injury. Huh. Not sure what that says about me.
Does Ed have it right?
That is, we can't reverse, single-handedly, the media onslaught of the "absolutely obscene number of know-nothing broadcasters" who feed the self-fulfilling prophecy, but we can reject it for ourselves, on an individual level.
Again, I'm in no way suggesting we can't ever be critical or negative concerning what goes on in the field or elsewhere concerning the Boston Red Sox, but we need to dig deep to find the real issues of concern and not what we are simple told by way of the media to focus on or otherwise distract us.
I think so.
Sunday, April 04, 2004
DePo and the Dodgers get Milton Bradley for minor league outfielder, Franklin Gutierrez and a PTBNL. BP says that Gutierrez has a nice combination of power and speed for a 20-year-old. "His long-term projection is strong, but" he is a hacker right now. Gutierrez sounds like a high risk- high reward prospect. The price for Bradley did not seem too high for the Sox.
WHAT COULD DAMPEN MY SPIRITS?
Burlington seems to be almost as stoked (I am probably too old to use that term, but WTF) for the start of the Sox season as I am. A local watering hole is having a promo not for Opening Day but Tuesday's game that starts at 3pm. Schilling's first Sox start, free stuff, beer specials and Bud Girls could make Tuesday afternoon a memorable event. The somewhat pretentious coffee shop I now get my java from (I maybe becoming a true Vermont transplant - Dunkin' just aint doing it anymore) had "Go Sox" at the bottom of their daily offerings list. Plus, I've seen others in Sox apparel today. Good vibes!
Rolling through the media
Gordon Edes thinks that the Sox
are faced with the tricky calculus of how to craft an offer for Martinez that factors in the possibility that he may break down.
Well, I gave Theo and company the blueprint for Pedro's contract.
Bob Hohler quotes DLowe
"It's a risk you're taking that you can sign guys at the end of the year," Lowe said. "You're going to have two weeks to sign guys.
Well that is not necessarily the case. The Sox get exclusive rights to work out a contract during the two week period. If the player is offered arbitration, which all of the free agents will be (I bet a paycheck on this one), the Sox can sign any of their upcoming free agents throughout the winter. Now I don't think DLowe should know this, perhaps he does and his full comment did not make it into article, regardless Hohler should have clarified the free agent process after the quote or published his entire conversation with Lowe. The Sox will have more than two weeks to sign any of the free agents.
Nate Silver and Baseball Prospectus forecasts the Sox winning 106 games and the MFY 106.4. Silver writes
It is likely that these projections are underestimating the negative impact that the Yanks' poor defense could play--a defensive adjustment is built into the pitcher PECOTAs, but is done in a very conservative manner. Still, it would take a coincidence of several cataclysmic happenings for either team to miss the playoffs, and both clubs have the money to hedge against even that.
Should I be rooting for Jeter to stay healthy so Torre doesn't play A-Hole at SS?
Are we there yet? Is it eight yet? Is it eight yet? Is it eight yet?
Burlington seems to be almost as stoked (I am probably too old to use that term, but WTF) for the start of the Sox season as I am. A local watering hole is having a promo not for Opening Day but Tuesday's game that starts at 3pm. Schilling's first Sox start, free stuff, beer specials and Bud Girls could make Tuesday afternoon a memorable event. The somewhat pretentious coffee shop I now get my java from (I maybe becoming a true Vermont transplant - Dunkin' just aint doing it anymore) had "Go Sox" at the bottom of their daily offerings list. Plus, I've seen others in Sox apparel today. Good vibes!
Rolling through the media
Gordon Edes thinks that the Sox
are faced with the tricky calculus of how to craft an offer for Martinez that factors in the possibility that he may break down.
Well, I gave Theo and company the blueprint for Pedro's contract.
Bob Hohler quotes DLowe
"It's a risk you're taking that you can sign guys at the end of the year," Lowe said. "You're going to have two weeks to sign guys.
Well that is not necessarily the case. The Sox get exclusive rights to work out a contract during the two week period. If the player is offered arbitration, which all of the free agents will be (I bet a paycheck on this one), the Sox can sign any of their upcoming free agents throughout the winter. Now I don't think DLowe should know this, perhaps he does and his full comment did not make it into article, regardless Hohler should have clarified the free agent process after the quote or published his entire conversation with Lowe. The Sox will have more than two weeks to sign any of the free agents.
Nate Silver and Baseball Prospectus forecasts the Sox winning 106 games and the MFY 106.4. Silver writes
It is likely that these projections are underestimating the negative impact that the Yanks' poor defense could play--a defensive adjustment is built into the pitcher PECOTAs, but is done in a very conservative manner. Still, it would take a coincidence of several cataclysmic happenings for either team to miss the playoffs, and both clubs have the money to hedge against even that.
Should I be rooting for Jeter to stay healthy so Torre doesn't play A-Hole at SS?
Are we there yet? Is it eight yet? Is it eight yet? Is it eight yet?
Friday, April 02, 2004
It is North America's Opening Day on Sunday - Sox versus O's, but everywhere keeps talking about Sox-MFY. The teams don't even get on the same field together for another two weeks. Give the hype a rest for now, please. If you are going to subject yourself to these articles, I suggest Klapisch's. It is simple, short, to the point and kind of funny.
BTW, my new boob tube came in today. It sucks that Comcast is not my cable provider, then I could have the Sox in High Def for about 80 games. Anyway, it is going to be much better watching the Olde Towne Team on this set.
BTW, my new boob tube came in today. It sucks that Comcast is not my cable provider, then I could have the Sox in High Def for about 80 games. Anyway, it is going to be much better watching the Olde Towne Team on this set.
DOES ANYONE CARE?
After writing this, I thought does anyone really give a shit about this, perhaps the other five owners in my league, but that is probably about it. Fantasy Fridays in the future won’t be about my league unless I hear otherwise.
Basics
My fantasy league consists of six teams (it should have been seven but some loser thought work was more important than our draft, who will remain nameless – Mattie). We play AL-only minus all MFY with your standard 5x5 roto scoring and categories with the addition of OBP. Nine position players and five pitcher slots are eligible for point accumulation with 15 total roster spots. We had a draft auction with a $100 cap with no cost for free agent/waiver pickups. I used BP’s Fantasy PECTOA forecasting system as the basis of my strategy and decision making.
Strategy
Since we have six hitting categories and five pitching, my basic thought was to spend more on position players. Plus, hitters’ performance is more predictable than pitchers.
Historically, it is more difficult to find productive hitters at catcher, second, short and third. This season’s crop of eligible players and teams resulted in a somewhat non-traditional situation regarding position scarcity.
Two of the best catchers from last year entered the AL, Pudge and Lopez, this season combining with V-Tek giving three clubs solid veterans. If you are frequent reader, you know that I am very suspicious of aging catchers. With each likely to cost between $5-10, I decided to use a low cost-high reward strategy at catcher. Matt LeCroy is on everyone’s sleeper list, deservingly so, but it is unlikely that he will have BA>270 and an OBP>330 with 500+ at-bats. Those numbers are going to weigh down your rate categories and the sleeper hype could pump up his price. It did not, LeCroy was had for a buck, but if I was going to spend on hitters than I needed solid all around ones. Rookies or near rooks scare me so Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez were out. I targeted Miguel Olivo. Olivo’s BA and OBP will likely be worse than LeCroy’s but Olivo may only get 350 at-bats - an estimated 6.5% of the total. It won’t put a dent into my overall BA and OBP. Plus, Olivo could be a 10 homer-10 stolen base guy at catcher.
The hot corner was unusually strong this season with Chavez, Blalock, Hinske, Koskie, Glaus, Teixeira, the Meat Hook and Mueller. All of them have flaws but all are solid. I would be happy with any of them so I decided to wait and get the least expense.
Excluding the MFY eliminated two very good short stops leaving only Nomar and Tejada as solid picks. Valentine and Guzman have strengths but also big weaknesses too. Again if you are a frequent reader, you know I am not bullish on Nomar so Tejada was my guy. I had to get him. BP had Tejada pegged at $9, but that did not factor in the decreased supply by not including the MFY. My adjusted value had Tejada’s value nearly doubling to $17. Tejada was one of the critical elements to my strategy. I had to get him.
Second base was not as crucial as SS but still important. Soriano and Boone are the only two here as well. Although Kennedy and Young have potential, I wanted solid hitters with less risk. Not going with a good hitting catcher allows me to move strong on a second baseman this season. Soriano was the first pick in our draft so folks would be hot to spend and the recent trade to Texas only increased his value over the projected $20. (The Rangers’ Ballpark is Coors Light Field and Soriano’s home/away splits are significant. Soriano might get fewer stolen bags batting third but his other numbers could explode.) I did not want to spend over $20 on any player who may be a stink hole in a category (OBP) so I focused on Boone willing to overpay by $5 to $15.
First baseman and outfielders are plentiful. Depending on my budget and the draft order, I could make a run at a good outfielder but I would be satisfied with picking up good hitters after the draft on the waiver wire.
My pitching strategy was different from the offensive one. Since pitchers are more susceptible to injury than position players carrying a certain amount of risk inherently, high reward players were the focus. Looking closely at PECOTA’s breakout rates, I surprisingly found that Pedro Martinez had one of the highest breakout rates. Regardless of his breakout potential, he was valued at $27 and Petey’s value would only go higher with the absence of three top MFY starters.
After a long internal debate with myself, I decided to tie my fantasy team and favorite club’s fate together. It is a huge personal risk. The arm of one man may determine the direction of my attitude over the next six months…just kidding…well sort of…I guess?
Johan Santana, B-Kim and Francisco Cordero also topped the breakout list. Aaron Gleeman’s Free Johan Santana campaign was successful last May/June? Santana has some of the best K/BB/HR rates in MLB over the last couple of seasons. He can be sick. BK’s injury dropped him from the target list in the draft. Zimmerman’s injury cemented Cordero as the closer and bumped him up to nearly must have status. I also liked the reports coming out of K.C. regarding the talented Jeremy Affledt. It seems like a medical procedure relieved him of the blister problem he had last season that demoted him to middle relief. Affledt has the potential to be an ace if he can stay in the rotation. If not, then he would compete and likely get the closer position. Affledt would have fantasy value no matter how his condition turned out. Arthur Rhodes was also a target. If the A’s thought Rhodes’ ineffectiveness was caused by a concealed ankle injury last year, than he fell into my undervalued category.
In summary, spend more on 2b ($15), ss ($15), and high upside pitchers ($30, $15 on two starters); wait on a 3b ($5) and a closer ($5), punt catcher and pickup first and outfield on the waiver wire or with a $2 pickup.
Draft
The draft order was based on last season’s rankings. Soriano was up first. Figuring that he would go for more than my budgeted $15 for a second baseman, I did not pay that much attention. Then, I noticed that the bidding stopped around $10 so I jumped in and got him for $13 saving $2. Beltran, Delgado, Manny, Halladay, Boone all went as expected and to other teams. Pedro was next and I got him for $20. It seemed like most owners did not want to pay $20 for any player based on their comments and after the draft, I realized no other player sold for more than $18. I got my pitcher and saved $10 based on my budget.
I saved $12 so far leaving me plenty of money to get Tedaja but before the shortstop, Vlad came up. The bidding was competitive and I jumped in at $16 with the objective of tantalizing another owner to overpay for him. It did not happen and I was stuck with Vlad crushing my budget a net loss of -$2 with Tejada on deck. I was still determined not to loose out on Tejada, the key to my draft. I did not but overpaid by $3. Over budget by $5 would exclude me from bidding on any 1b or OF; waiver wire here I come. My budget was shot.
My next target was Santana. I got him for $13 saving $2, but I was still over by $3. Unfortunately, I did not calculate my budget variance correctly. I thought I was up $2 which prompted my bid on CC Sabathia. Sabathia was not even on my list. I was just trying to drive up his price. I foolishly out bid the competition and had to pay $3 for CC. Luckily by the time my other targets were the board many other owners were already tapped out allowing me to score Cordero for a $1, Blalock at $2, Hinske at $1, and Phelps for $1. Even more owners left and I got Olivo, Affledt, and Rhodes for $1 each. This was not the team I envisioned but I got a lot of value for $91 putting me in a good position to make a deal or two.
Trade
After picking up Brad Fullmer to play first base and Juan Gone for the outfield, I traded Blalock, Juan Gone and CC Sabathia for Vernon Wells. My trading partner had depth in the outfield and needed a third baseman. I needed an outfielder. It worked out for both clubs. The trade also opened up two roster spot allowing me to add BK and Frankie Cat. The Cat is a solid hitter, but nothing to write home about. The big upside to this deal is acquiring another potential breakout pitcher for nothing. If BK pitches like BP forecasts, he could put me over the top. Only time will tell.
After writing this, I thought does anyone really give a shit about this, perhaps the other five owners in my league, but that is probably about it. Fantasy Fridays in the future won’t be about my league unless I hear otherwise.
Basics
My fantasy league consists of six teams (it should have been seven but some loser thought work was more important than our draft, who will remain nameless – Mattie). We play AL-only minus all MFY with your standard 5x5 roto scoring and categories with the addition of OBP. Nine position players and five pitcher slots are eligible for point accumulation with 15 total roster spots. We had a draft auction with a $100 cap with no cost for free agent/waiver pickups. I used BP’s Fantasy PECTOA forecasting system as the basis of my strategy and decision making.
Strategy
Since we have six hitting categories and five pitching, my basic thought was to spend more on position players. Plus, hitters’ performance is more predictable than pitchers.
Historically, it is more difficult to find productive hitters at catcher, second, short and third. This season’s crop of eligible players and teams resulted in a somewhat non-traditional situation regarding position scarcity.
Two of the best catchers from last year entered the AL, Pudge and Lopez, this season combining with V-Tek giving three clubs solid veterans. If you are frequent reader, you know that I am very suspicious of aging catchers. With each likely to cost between $5-10, I decided to use a low cost-high reward strategy at catcher. Matt LeCroy is on everyone’s sleeper list, deservingly so, but it is unlikely that he will have BA>270 and an OBP>330 with 500+ at-bats. Those numbers are going to weigh down your rate categories and the sleeper hype could pump up his price. It did not, LeCroy was had for a buck, but if I was going to spend on hitters than I needed solid all around ones. Rookies or near rooks scare me so Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez were out. I targeted Miguel Olivo. Olivo’s BA and OBP will likely be worse than LeCroy’s but Olivo may only get 350 at-bats - an estimated 6.5% of the total. It won’t put a dent into my overall BA and OBP. Plus, Olivo could be a 10 homer-10 stolen base guy at catcher.
The hot corner was unusually strong this season with Chavez, Blalock, Hinske, Koskie, Glaus, Teixeira, the Meat Hook and Mueller. All of them have flaws but all are solid. I would be happy with any of them so I decided to wait and get the least expense.
Excluding the MFY eliminated two very good short stops leaving only Nomar and Tejada as solid picks. Valentine and Guzman have strengths but also big weaknesses too. Again if you are a frequent reader, you know I am not bullish on Nomar so Tejada was my guy. I had to get him. BP had Tejada pegged at $9, but that did not factor in the decreased supply by not including the MFY. My adjusted value had Tejada’s value nearly doubling to $17. Tejada was one of the critical elements to my strategy. I had to get him.
Second base was not as crucial as SS but still important. Soriano and Boone are the only two here as well. Although Kennedy and Young have potential, I wanted solid hitters with less risk. Not going with a good hitting catcher allows me to move strong on a second baseman this season. Soriano was the first pick in our draft so folks would be hot to spend and the recent trade to Texas only increased his value over the projected $20. (The Rangers’ Ballpark is Coors Light Field and Soriano’s home/away splits are significant. Soriano might get fewer stolen bags batting third but his other numbers could explode.) I did not want to spend over $20 on any player who may be a stink hole in a category (OBP) so I focused on Boone willing to overpay by $5 to $15.
First baseman and outfielders are plentiful. Depending on my budget and the draft order, I could make a run at a good outfielder but I would be satisfied with picking up good hitters after the draft on the waiver wire.
My pitching strategy was different from the offensive one. Since pitchers are more susceptible to injury than position players carrying a certain amount of risk inherently, high reward players were the focus. Looking closely at PECOTA’s breakout rates, I surprisingly found that Pedro Martinez had one of the highest breakout rates. Regardless of his breakout potential, he was valued at $27 and Petey’s value would only go higher with the absence of three top MFY starters.
After a long internal debate with myself, I decided to tie my fantasy team and favorite club’s fate together. It is a huge personal risk. The arm of one man may determine the direction of my attitude over the next six months…just kidding…well sort of…I guess?
Johan Santana, B-Kim and Francisco Cordero also topped the breakout list. Aaron Gleeman’s Free Johan Santana campaign was successful last May/June? Santana has some of the best K/BB/HR rates in MLB over the last couple of seasons. He can be sick. BK’s injury dropped him from the target list in the draft. Zimmerman’s injury cemented Cordero as the closer and bumped him up to nearly must have status. I also liked the reports coming out of K.C. regarding the talented Jeremy Affledt. It seems like a medical procedure relieved him of the blister problem he had last season that demoted him to middle relief. Affledt has the potential to be an ace if he can stay in the rotation. If not, then he would compete and likely get the closer position. Affledt would have fantasy value no matter how his condition turned out. Arthur Rhodes was also a target. If the A’s thought Rhodes’ ineffectiveness was caused by a concealed ankle injury last year, than he fell into my undervalued category.
In summary, spend more on 2b ($15), ss ($15), and high upside pitchers ($30, $15 on two starters); wait on a 3b ($5) and a closer ($5), punt catcher and pickup first and outfield on the waiver wire or with a $2 pickup.
Draft
The draft order was based on last season’s rankings. Soriano was up first. Figuring that he would go for more than my budgeted $15 for a second baseman, I did not pay that much attention. Then, I noticed that the bidding stopped around $10 so I jumped in and got him for $13 saving $2. Beltran, Delgado, Manny, Halladay, Boone all went as expected and to other teams. Pedro was next and I got him for $20. It seemed like most owners did not want to pay $20 for any player based on their comments and after the draft, I realized no other player sold for more than $18. I got my pitcher and saved $10 based on my budget.
I saved $12 so far leaving me plenty of money to get Tedaja but before the shortstop, Vlad came up. The bidding was competitive and I jumped in at $16 with the objective of tantalizing another owner to overpay for him. It did not happen and I was stuck with Vlad crushing my budget a net loss of -$2 with Tejada on deck. I was still determined not to loose out on Tejada, the key to my draft. I did not but overpaid by $3. Over budget by $5 would exclude me from bidding on any 1b or OF; waiver wire here I come. My budget was shot.
My next target was Santana. I got him for $13 saving $2, but I was still over by $3. Unfortunately, I did not calculate my budget variance correctly. I thought I was up $2 which prompted my bid on CC Sabathia. Sabathia was not even on my list. I was just trying to drive up his price. I foolishly out bid the competition and had to pay $3 for CC. Luckily by the time my other targets were the board many other owners were already tapped out allowing me to score Cordero for a $1, Blalock at $2, Hinske at $1, and Phelps for $1. Even more owners left and I got Olivo, Affledt, and Rhodes for $1 each. This was not the team I envisioned but I got a lot of value for $91 putting me in a good position to make a deal or two.
Trade
After picking up Brad Fullmer to play first base and Juan Gone for the outfield, I traded Blalock, Juan Gone and CC Sabathia for Vernon Wells. My trading partner had depth in the outfield and needed a third baseman. I needed an outfielder. It worked out for both clubs. The trade also opened up two roster spot allowing me to add BK and Frankie Cat. The Cat is a solid hitter, but nothing to write home about. The big upside to this deal is acquiring another potential breakout pitcher for nothing. If BK pitches like BP forecasts, he could put me over the top. Only time will tell.
Thursday, April 01, 2004
DO RED SOX FIT MILTON BRADLEY?
The Cleveland Indians will trade Milton Bradley within 72 hours of Wednesday's confrontation with manager Eric Wedge, ESPN's Peter Gammons reported today.
Theo should get on the phone to Mark Shapiro immediately. Shapiro can NOT expect to get a lot in return for Bradley after Gammons' report. M.B. has tremendous talent with a questionable attitude which reminds me of Carl Everett. Unlike Everett, Bradley is young and making only $1.73 million. The influence of Ellis Burks, Kevin Millar, David Ortiz and company could eliminate Bradley’s past issues allowing his talent to take over. Nixon’s injury opens up a spot for Bradley for at least a month. The downside to this deal is that Bradley comes in and disrupts the clubhouse in April necessitating a trade. Theo gets the little back that he sent to Cleveland and it cost the Sox an additional 300K. The upside is that Bradley flourishes under the Sox veteran leaders giving the organization another outfield option in 2004 and the centerfielder of the future.
The Cleveland Indians will trade Milton Bradley within 72 hours of Wednesday's confrontation with manager Eric Wedge, ESPN's Peter Gammons reported today.
Theo should get on the phone to Mark Shapiro immediately. Shapiro can NOT expect to get a lot in return for Bradley after Gammons' report. M.B. has tremendous talent with a questionable attitude which reminds me of Carl Everett. Unlike Everett, Bradley is young and making only $1.73 million. The influence of Ellis Burks, Kevin Millar, David Ortiz and company could eliminate Bradley’s past issues allowing his talent to take over. Nixon’s injury opens up a spot for Bradley for at least a month. The downside to this deal is that Bradley comes in and disrupts the clubhouse in April necessitating a trade. Theo gets the little back that he sent to Cleveland and it cost the Sox an additional 300K. The upside is that Bradley flourishes under the Sox veteran leaders giving the organization another outfield option in 2004 and the centerfielder of the future.
I don't worry. I sweat and bite my finger nails uncontrollably all the time.
We all know that Pedro has been working on his control over the last couple of starts. He has gotten that down; he has not given a walk since that announcement. Petey has managed to strike out a batter per inning over the spring too. It also appears that Pedro is still working on his stuff as Jayson Stark reports,
The next hitter was Phelps, who ran the count to 2 and 2 -- then went lurching out of the way of a fastball that nearly scraped off his eyebrows.
This was where the Pedro of old would finish Phelps off with an untouchable breaking ball or changeup, low and away. But the Pedro of Tuesday came back with a fastball that started out away and tailed back into the meat of the plate.
Pedro is still working out the winter kinks. He is not in mid-season form, but Pedro at 80% is still better than most front line starters. Petey will have it going after a couple more starts. Unfortunately, the next couple count.
Sox Rock Star
Johnny Damon needs to start off hot this spring with the absence of Nomar and Nixon. Damon is a notorious slow starter over his career. His offseason conditioning program that resulted in gaining 15 pounds by "drinking beer" can’t be helpful in breaking the trend either. Has the media given Johnny Rockets a Soprano type “a pass”? Was Shady Chicken Little right about this guy? I don’t know but I am sure that the Sox will be overpaying if they do not get the hitter that sprayed line drives around Kauffman Stadium.
Fans
Your parents, the McCourts, just bought the Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the most storied franchises in all of sports. Do you have any comments? I’m “always going to be a Red Sox fan" and Jim Caple says Cubs fans are one of a kind.
We all know that Pedro has been working on his control over the last couple of starts. He has gotten that down; he has not given a walk since that announcement. Petey has managed to strike out a batter per inning over the spring too. It also appears that Pedro is still working on his stuff as Jayson Stark reports,
The next hitter was Phelps, who ran the count to 2 and 2 -- then went lurching out of the way of a fastball that nearly scraped off his eyebrows.
This was where the Pedro of old would finish Phelps off with an untouchable breaking ball or changeup, low and away. But the Pedro of Tuesday came back with a fastball that started out away and tailed back into the meat of the plate.
Pedro is still working out the winter kinks. He is not in mid-season form, but Pedro at 80% is still better than most front line starters. Petey will have it going after a couple more starts. Unfortunately, the next couple count.
Sox Rock Star
Johnny Damon needs to start off hot this spring with the absence of Nomar and Nixon. Damon is a notorious slow starter over his career. His offseason conditioning program that resulted in gaining 15 pounds by "drinking beer" can’t be helpful in breaking the trend either. Has the media given Johnny Rockets a Soprano type “a pass”? Was Shady Chicken Little right about this guy? I don’t know but I am sure that the Sox will be overpaying if they do not get the hitter that sprayed line drives around Kauffman Stadium.
Fans
Your parents, the McCourts, just bought the Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the most storied franchises in all of sports. Do you have any comments? I’m “always going to be a Red Sox fan" and Jim Caple says Cubs fans are one of a kind.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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