El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

DOES ANYONE CARE?

After writing this, I thought does anyone really give a shit about this, perhaps the other five owners in my league, but that is probably about it. Fantasy Fridays in the future won’t be about my league unless I hear otherwise.

Basics
My fantasy league consists of six teams (it should have been seven but some loser thought work was more important than our draft, who will remain nameless – Mattie). We play AL-only minus all MFY with your standard 5x5 roto scoring and categories with the addition of OBP. Nine position players and five pitcher slots are eligible for point accumulation with 15 total roster spots. We had a draft auction with a $100 cap with no cost for free agent/waiver pickups. I used BP’s Fantasy PECTOA forecasting system as the basis of my strategy and decision making.

Strategy
Since we have six hitting categories and five pitching, my basic thought was to spend more on position players. Plus, hitters’ performance is more predictable than pitchers.

Historically, it is more difficult to find productive hitters at catcher, second, short and third. This season’s crop of eligible players and teams resulted in a somewhat non-traditional situation regarding position scarcity.

Two of the best catchers from last year entered the AL, Pudge and Lopez, this season combining with V-Tek giving three clubs solid veterans. If you are frequent reader, you know that I am very suspicious of aging catchers. With each likely to cost between $5-10, I decided to use a low cost-high reward strategy at catcher. Matt LeCroy is on everyone’s sleeper list, deservingly so, but it is unlikely that he will have BA>270 and an OBP>330 with 500+ at-bats. Those numbers are going to weigh down your rate categories and the sleeper hype could pump up his price. It did not, LeCroy was had for a buck, but if I was going to spend on hitters than I needed solid all around ones. Rookies or near rooks scare me so Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez were out. I targeted Miguel Olivo. Olivo’s BA and OBP will likely be worse than LeCroy’s but Olivo may only get 350 at-bats - an estimated 6.5% of the total. It won’t put a dent into my overall BA and OBP. Plus, Olivo could be a 10 homer-10 stolen base guy at catcher.

The hot corner was unusually strong this season with Chavez, Blalock, Hinske, Koskie, Glaus, Teixeira, the Meat Hook and Mueller. All of them have flaws but all are solid. I would be happy with any of them so I decided to wait and get the least expense.

Excluding the MFY eliminated two very good short stops leaving only Nomar and Tejada as solid picks. Valentine and Guzman have strengths but also big weaknesses too. Again if you are a frequent reader, you know I am not bullish on Nomar so Tejada was my guy. I had to get him. BP had Tejada pegged at $9, but that did not factor in the decreased supply by not including the MFY. My adjusted value had Tejada’s value nearly doubling to $17. Tejada was one of the critical elements to my strategy. I had to get him.

Second base was not as crucial as SS but still important. Soriano and Boone are the only two here as well. Although Kennedy and Young have potential, I wanted solid hitters with less risk. Not going with a good hitting catcher allows me to move strong on a second baseman this season. Soriano was the first pick in our draft so folks would be hot to spend and the recent trade to Texas only increased his value over the projected $20. (The Rangers’ Ballpark is Coors Light Field and Soriano’s home/away splits are significant. Soriano might get fewer stolen bags batting third but his other numbers could explode.) I did not want to spend over $20 on any player who may be a stink hole in a category (OBP) so I focused on Boone willing to overpay by $5 to $15.

First baseman and outfielders are plentiful. Depending on my budget and the draft order, I could make a run at a good outfielder but I would be satisfied with picking up good hitters after the draft on the waiver wire.

My pitching strategy was different from the offensive one. Since pitchers are more susceptible to injury than position players carrying a certain amount of risk inherently, high reward players were the focus. Looking closely at PECOTA’s breakout rates, I surprisingly found that Pedro Martinez had one of the highest breakout rates. Regardless of his breakout potential, he was valued at $27 and Petey’s value would only go higher with the absence of three top MFY starters.

After a long internal debate with myself, I decided to tie my fantasy team and favorite club’s fate together. It is a huge personal risk. The arm of one man may determine the direction of my attitude over the next six months…just kidding…well sort of…I guess?

Johan Santana, B-Kim and Francisco Cordero also topped the breakout list. Aaron Gleeman’s Free Johan Santana campaign was successful last May/June? Santana has some of the best K/BB/HR rates in MLB over the last couple of seasons. He can be sick. BK’s injury dropped him from the target list in the draft. Zimmerman’s injury cemented Cordero as the closer and bumped him up to nearly must have status. I also liked the reports coming out of K.C. regarding the talented Jeremy Affledt. It seems like a medical procedure relieved him of the blister problem he had last season that demoted him to middle relief. Affledt has the potential to be an ace if he can stay in the rotation. If not, then he would compete and likely get the closer position. Affledt would have fantasy value no matter how his condition turned out. Arthur Rhodes was also a target. If the A’s thought Rhodes’ ineffectiveness was caused by a concealed ankle injury last year, than he fell into my undervalued category.

In summary, spend more on 2b ($15), ss ($15), and high upside pitchers ($30, $15 on two starters); wait on a 3b ($5) and a closer ($5), punt catcher and pickup first and outfield on the waiver wire or with a $2 pickup.

Draft
The draft order was based on last season’s rankings. Soriano was up first. Figuring that he would go for more than my budgeted $15 for a second baseman, I did not pay that much attention. Then, I noticed that the bidding stopped around $10 so I jumped in and got him for $13 saving $2. Beltran, Delgado, Manny, Halladay, Boone all went as expected and to other teams. Pedro was next and I got him for $20. It seemed like most owners did not want to pay $20 for any player based on their comments and after the draft, I realized no other player sold for more than $18. I got my pitcher and saved $10 based on my budget.

I saved $12 so far leaving me plenty of money to get Tedaja but before the shortstop, Vlad came up. The bidding was competitive and I jumped in at $16 with the objective of tantalizing another owner to overpay for him. It did not happen and I was stuck with Vlad crushing my budget a net loss of -$2 with Tejada on deck. I was still determined not to loose out on Tejada, the key to my draft. I did not but overpaid by $3. Over budget by $5 would exclude me from bidding on any 1b or OF; waiver wire here I come. My budget was shot.

My next target was Santana. I got him for $13 saving $2, but I was still over by $3. Unfortunately, I did not calculate my budget variance correctly. I thought I was up $2 which prompted my bid on CC Sabathia. Sabathia was not even on my list. I was just trying to drive up his price. I foolishly out bid the competition and had to pay $3 for CC. Luckily by the time my other targets were the board many other owners were already tapped out allowing me to score Cordero for a $1, Blalock at $2, Hinske at $1, and Phelps for $1. Even more owners left and I got Olivo, Affledt, and Rhodes for $1 each. This was not the team I envisioned but I got a lot of value for $91 putting me in a good position to make a deal or two.

Trade
After picking up Brad Fullmer to play first base and Juan Gone for the outfield, I traded Blalock, Juan Gone and CC Sabathia for Vernon Wells. My trading partner had depth in the outfield and needed a third baseman. I needed an outfielder. It worked out for both clubs. The trade also opened up two roster spot allowing me to add BK and Frankie Cat. The Cat is a solid hitter, but nothing to write home about. The big upside to this deal is acquiring another potential breakout pitcher for nothing. If BK pitches like BP forecasts, he could put me over the top. Only time will tell.