Saturday, November 29, 2003
Besides the rumor that Foulke bought a house in the Boston area, Joel Sherman, of the New York Post reports that
In addition, the Mets have become convinced that their top choice to close, Keith Foulke, is going to sign a four-year contract with the Red Sox. The A's remain confident if Foulke does not sign with the Red Sox he would re-sign in Oakland before going to the Mets.
Monte Poole of the Oakland Tribune writes
According to more than one source, general manager Billy Beane is all but conceding the loss of Keith Foulke and has free agent LaTroy Hawkins at the top of his wish list of replacements.
It appears that Foulke's two other main suitors have run up the white flag. The Sox seem to be the only player in the Foulke sweepstakes.
In addition, the Mets have become convinced that their top choice to close, Keith Foulke, is going to sign a four-year contract with the Red Sox. The A's remain confident if Foulke does not sign with the Red Sox he would re-sign in Oakland before going to the Mets.
Monte Poole of the Oakland Tribune writes
According to more than one source, general manager Billy Beane is all but conceding the loss of Keith Foulke and has free agent LaTroy Hawkins at the top of his wish list of replacements.
It appears that Foulke's two other main suitors have run up the white flag. The Sox seem to be the only player in the Foulke sweepstakes.
Wednesday, November 26, 2003
OLD BASEBALL TRANSACTIONS AND COMMENTS
Part 1
Pat Hentgen, RHP, Blue Jays – signed a one-year $2.2 million contract. Hentgen at age 35 is not the pitcher he once was. He was effective in the second half of 2003 posting an ERA of 3.10 with an improving walk rate. 150-175 innings out of Hentgen is reasonable for 2004 as is his $2.2 million salary. But why ink him so early? Why not wait until the non-tenders hit the market, possibly bringing down the price for Hentgen type pitchers.
Ted Lilly, LHP traded from Oaktown to Toronto for OF, Bobby Keilty. The deal is a win-win. Both teams dealt from a position of depth to fill a hole. The A's get a cheap good outfielder who is patient and will probably be a productive hitter that is needed in Oaktown. A Nixon like late development for Keilty would not come as a surprise. ). Lilly finally seemed to reach his potential in 2003 throwing 178 innings with his best K and K/BB rates for his career. Lilly was particularly effective in the second half with a 3.45 ERA. Keeping the ball down and reducing the number of dingers will have a great impact on Lilly's performance. At age 27, Lilly could show improvement next season even pitching home games in a less friendly pitching park and a poorer defense in Toronto.
Jose Vizcaino, UTIL, signed for $1.2 million for one-year and Brad Ausmus, C, signed for $4 million over two years. For an organization that is always crying poor, this is borderline criminal. If the front office uses these two foolish signings as a reason for not offering Pettitte a competitive offer, Astros fans should boycott next season. Vizcaino and Ausmus are fungible commodities. Both could be had a much more reasonable rates. Utility infielders go for 600K and no hit catchers for 500K. The Astros wasted $3.6 million over the next two seasons. Since you are wasting money just as fast as Enron, how about 50K my way for consulting fees?
Deivi Cruz, UTIL, Baltimore – O’s will not exercise the contract option. The O’s a leader in fiscal responsibility?
Kerry Lightenberg, RHP, O’s – did not pickup his $1.2 million option. This is the correct move for a rebuilding club wanting to allocate their resources in a more productive manner. A contending team might have other thoughts. Lightenberg kills RHB 206/230/362 in 2003 and from 00-02 211/248/333. Lightenberg can be a valuable middle/ROOGY for a club throwing 50-60 innings.
Mike Timlin, RHP, Sox - signed a $2.5 million one-year contract with an option. See above but the Sox paid more for a better pitcher.
AJ Pierzynski was dealt to S.F. to take over for the ageless, free agent, Benito Santiago behind the plate. The Giants get a 26 year old Catcher that appears to be hitting (pun intended) his stride at the plate. Even though his OBP is tied to his AVG, AJ gets on base at a respectful level for a Catcher. He could be developing a power stroke that one would expect from a 6-3, 220 ballplayer. AJ SLG in 2003 was at a career high of 464. If he can near that SLG in PacBell, it would be a great accomplishment. Overall, this is a nice pickup for the Giants who had a couple of bucks to spend. In return, the Twins receive Joe Nathan and two minor league pitchers. As usual, the Twins needs to cut expected payroll for the upcoming season. They not only have depth but inexpensive, talented catching options (Joe Mauer and part-timer Matt LeCory) in the system which made trading AJ and his salary an easy decision for Terry Ryan. The Twins receive a pitcher that may have found a home as a setup guy in the pen. Prior to this season, Nathan has floated between the rotation and the pen without much success. In 2003, Nathan posted an impressive 9.46 K/9 and 2.52 K/BB rates. RHB hit 136/211/256 and LHB did much better 276/385/378 against Joe in 2003. Joe's career splits are similar. Joe will not be as dominate as LaTroy Hawkins but should be effective as a setup guy for the Twins. Most importantly for the Twins, Joe Nathan should not make much more than the minimum next season. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect so I rarely devote key strokes to them.
John Halama and Paul Abbott, pitching place holders, Tampa – each signed a one-year deal worth 600K. Both pitchers are former Sweet Lou guys from Seattle who are on the club to suck up innings this season.
Ben Jacobs of Universal Baseball Blog said it best about Raul Ibanez signing a three year contract with Seattle.
Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus explains the Danys Baez situation.
Mario Ramos, LHP, claimed off waivers by Oakland from Texas. If memory serves, Ramos was originally A’s property and was sent to Texas as a part of the Carlos Pena deal who was part of the Jeff Weaver-Ted Lilly trade, right? Anyway, Ramos is back to the organization where he has been successful sporting an ERA of 3.07 in Midland and 3.14 in Sac-town in 2001. He seemed to be on the fast track to Oakland with his high 80’s heat and low 70’s change up. The A’s are hoping they can get Ramos back on that track again. Ramos is the usual A’s low risk-high reward transaction.
Tino Martinez, 1b, and $7 million traded to Tampa for Evan Rust and a PTNL. The D-Rays are paying $1.5 million for a 35 year-old first baseman that hit 272/339/459 over the last three seasons. Tino is worth about half of that figure. Numerous alternatives will hit the market shortly after the non-tenders. Plus, the D-Rays give up two other players. Unless Tino - being some kind of hometown hero - increases attendance at the Trop, the D-Rays got hosed.
Kelvim Escobar, RHP, Anaheim - signed for $18.75 over three years. Escobar is an enigma. Even though Escobar is entering his prime years, it is difficult to justify a three year commitment to a player lacking consistency. It is a medium risk – high reward acquisition.
Derek Lee, 1b trade to the Cubs from Miami for Hee Seop Choi, 1b and a PTNL. Right here is a big DLee fan – gold glover with good power and patience – Cubbie fans should be happy, but given the situation the Marlins won this deal. In this market, a good cheap player, Choi, is worth more than a very good expensive player, Lee. Choi was undervalued by the Cubs. For information on Choi’s potential check out Aaron Gleeman.
Part 1
Pat Hentgen, RHP, Blue Jays – signed a one-year $2.2 million contract. Hentgen at age 35 is not the pitcher he once was. He was effective in the second half of 2003 posting an ERA of 3.10 with an improving walk rate. 150-175 innings out of Hentgen is reasonable for 2004 as is his $2.2 million salary. But why ink him so early? Why not wait until the non-tenders hit the market, possibly bringing down the price for Hentgen type pitchers.
Ted Lilly, LHP traded from Oaktown to Toronto for OF, Bobby Keilty. The deal is a win-win. Both teams dealt from a position of depth to fill a hole. The A's get a cheap good outfielder who is patient and will probably be a productive hitter that is needed in Oaktown. A Nixon like late development for Keilty would not come as a surprise. ). Lilly finally seemed to reach his potential in 2003 throwing 178 innings with his best K and K/BB rates for his career. Lilly was particularly effective in the second half with a 3.45 ERA. Keeping the ball down and reducing the number of dingers will have a great impact on Lilly's performance. At age 27, Lilly could show improvement next season even pitching home games in a less friendly pitching park and a poorer defense in Toronto.
Jose Vizcaino, UTIL, signed for $1.2 million for one-year and Brad Ausmus, C, signed for $4 million over two years. For an organization that is always crying poor, this is borderline criminal. If the front office uses these two foolish signings as a reason for not offering Pettitte a competitive offer, Astros fans should boycott next season. Vizcaino and Ausmus are fungible commodities. Both could be had a much more reasonable rates. Utility infielders go for 600K and no hit catchers for 500K. The Astros wasted $3.6 million over the next two seasons. Since you are wasting money just as fast as Enron, how about 50K my way for consulting fees?
Deivi Cruz, UTIL, Baltimore – O’s will not exercise the contract option. The O’s a leader in fiscal responsibility?
Kerry Lightenberg, RHP, O’s – did not pickup his $1.2 million option. This is the correct move for a rebuilding club wanting to allocate their resources in a more productive manner. A contending team might have other thoughts. Lightenberg kills RHB 206/230/362 in 2003 and from 00-02 211/248/333. Lightenberg can be a valuable middle/ROOGY for a club throwing 50-60 innings.
Mike Timlin, RHP, Sox - signed a $2.5 million one-year contract with an option. See above but the Sox paid more for a better pitcher.
AJ Pierzynski was dealt to S.F. to take over for the ageless, free agent, Benito Santiago behind the plate. The Giants get a 26 year old Catcher that appears to be hitting (pun intended) his stride at the plate. Even though his OBP is tied to his AVG, AJ gets on base at a respectful level for a Catcher. He could be developing a power stroke that one would expect from a 6-3, 220 ballplayer. AJ SLG in 2003 was at a career high of 464. If he can near that SLG in PacBell, it would be a great accomplishment. Overall, this is a nice pickup for the Giants who had a couple of bucks to spend. In return, the Twins receive Joe Nathan and two minor league pitchers. As usual, the Twins needs to cut expected payroll for the upcoming season. They not only have depth but inexpensive, talented catching options (Joe Mauer and part-timer Matt LeCory) in the system which made trading AJ and his salary an easy decision for Terry Ryan. The Twins receive a pitcher that may have found a home as a setup guy in the pen. Prior to this season, Nathan has floated between the rotation and the pen without much success. In 2003, Nathan posted an impressive 9.46 K/9 and 2.52 K/BB rates. RHB hit 136/211/256 and LHB did much better 276/385/378 against Joe in 2003. Joe's career splits are similar. Joe will not be as dominate as LaTroy Hawkins but should be effective as a setup guy for the Twins. Most importantly for the Twins, Joe Nathan should not make much more than the minimum next season. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect so I rarely devote key strokes to them.
John Halama and Paul Abbott, pitching place holders, Tampa – each signed a one-year deal worth 600K. Both pitchers are former Sweet Lou guys from Seattle who are on the club to suck up innings this season.
Ben Jacobs of Universal Baseball Blog said it best about Raul Ibanez signing a three year contract with Seattle.
Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus explains the Danys Baez situation.
Mario Ramos, LHP, claimed off waivers by Oakland from Texas. If memory serves, Ramos was originally A’s property and was sent to Texas as a part of the Carlos Pena deal who was part of the Jeff Weaver-Ted Lilly trade, right? Anyway, Ramos is back to the organization where he has been successful sporting an ERA of 3.07 in Midland and 3.14 in Sac-town in 2001. He seemed to be on the fast track to Oakland with his high 80’s heat and low 70’s change up. The A’s are hoping they can get Ramos back on that track again. Ramos is the usual A’s low risk-high reward transaction.
Tino Martinez, 1b, and $7 million traded to Tampa for Evan Rust and a PTNL. The D-Rays are paying $1.5 million for a 35 year-old first baseman that hit 272/339/459 over the last three seasons. Tino is worth about half of that figure. Numerous alternatives will hit the market shortly after the non-tenders. Plus, the D-Rays give up two other players. Unless Tino - being some kind of hometown hero - increases attendance at the Trop, the D-Rays got hosed.
Kelvim Escobar, RHP, Anaheim - signed for $18.75 over three years. Escobar is an enigma. Even though Escobar is entering his prime years, it is difficult to justify a three year commitment to a player lacking consistency. It is a medium risk – high reward acquisition.
Derek Lee, 1b trade to the Cubs from Miami for Hee Seop Choi, 1b and a PTNL. Right here is a big DLee fan – gold glover with good power and patience – Cubbie fans should be happy, but given the situation the Marlins won this deal. In this market, a good cheap player, Choi, is worth more than a very good expensive player, Lee. Choi was undervalued by the Cubs. For information on Choi’s potential check out Aaron Gleeman.
In today’s Globe, Gordon Edes believes that the only way the Sox could stay under the luxury tax with the acquisitions of Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke would be to trade Manny for A-Rod, then trading Nomah freeing up his $11.5 million salary. It is one possible solution to staying under the $120.5 million ceiling – the likely Sox budget - but Edes luxury tax accounting appears to have at least one critical error. He is using 2004 contracted salaries as a part of his luxury tax salary calculation. As Doug Pappas of Baseball Prospectus, Chairperson of SABR Business of Baseball Committee and practicing Attorney states
More importantly, for luxury tax purposes each year of a multi-year contract is valued at the average annual value of the contract, regardless of how the salaries are actually distributed. For example, the contract of a player earning $3 million in 2003, $4 million in 2004 and $5 million in 2005 will be valued at $4 million for each of these seasons.
A number of the Sox contracted players are in the last year of their back-loaded agreements – Pedro, Nomar, Lowe, V-Tek – which causes a significant variance between their 2004 salary and their luxury tax number. For example, V-Tek’s number is roughly $4.97 million and NOT his 2004 salary of $6.7 million. Edes is correct when he states that the Sox have roughly $87 million committed to twelve players in 2004, but that is not their luxury tax number; it is $73 million.
Since most are under the impression that the Sox budget is the luxury tax figure, then it is very important to understand how to accurately calculate it before proposing any major moves. A more depth look at the Sox luxury tax situation for 2004 will be the first component of my State of the Sox Address.
More importantly, for luxury tax purposes each year of a multi-year contract is valued at the average annual value of the contract, regardless of how the salaries are actually distributed. For example, the contract of a player earning $3 million in 2003, $4 million in 2004 and $5 million in 2005 will be valued at $4 million for each of these seasons.
A number of the Sox contracted players are in the last year of their back-loaded agreements – Pedro, Nomar, Lowe, V-Tek – which causes a significant variance between their 2004 salary and their luxury tax number. For example, V-Tek’s number is roughly $4.97 million and NOT his 2004 salary of $6.7 million. Edes is correct when he states that the Sox have roughly $87 million committed to twelve players in 2004, but that is not their luxury tax number; it is $73 million.
Since most are under the impression that the Sox budget is the luxury tax figure, then it is very important to understand how to accurately calculate it before proposing any major moves. A more depth look at the Sox luxury tax situation for 2004 will be the first component of my State of the Sox Address.
Tuesday, November 25, 2003
I am not sure what all of this means but this is a post from Sox Therapy:
Posted 5:46 p.m., November 25, 2003 (#23) - Joel Wertheimer
So, some info:
MHF12344: dude i have sick insider info
Auto response from MHF12344: class, then home...
MHF12344: AZZURRI110: dave's professor...she owned a house that vitaly potapenko built and lived in when he was with the C's....and she sold it today to some guy who just signed with the sox, and she said she didn't know who it was but his first name was either "Kevin" or "Keith" -- KEITH
I have read many of Joel's posts on Sox Therapy. I recall him for a few reasons: 1) he is from Burlington, Vermont, 2) he goes to Tufts and 3) he always makes good points. I doubt Joel is dreaming, but MHF12344 could be smoking something out in the 'ville that my old neighbors in Cambridge would be d-o-double-g down with. It just seems all to quick.
As I have said before, I think Foulke will be inked. It is being reported that the Sox, Mets and A's are suitors for Foulke. The Mets suck. The Sox will out spend the A's and will probably have a better club next season too. Unless Foulke wants to stay on the left coast, this decision should be a no brainer for the relief ace.
Posted 5:46 p.m., November 25, 2003 (#23) - Joel Wertheimer
So, some info:
MHF12344: dude i have sick insider info
Auto response from MHF12344: class, then home...
MHF12344: AZZURRI110: dave's professor...she owned a house that vitaly potapenko built and lived in when he was with the C's....and she sold it today to some guy who just signed with the sox, and she said she didn't know who it was but his first name was either "Kevin" or "Keith" -- KEITH
I have read many of Joel's posts on Sox Therapy. I recall him for a few reasons: 1) he is from Burlington, Vermont, 2) he goes to Tufts and 3) he always makes good points. I doubt Joel is dreaming, but MHF12344 could be smoking something out in the 'ville that my old neighbors in Cambridge would be d-o-double-g down with. It just seems all to quick.
As I have said before, I think Foulke will be inked. It is being reported that the Sox, Mets and A's are suitors for Foulke. The Mets suck. The Sox will out spend the A's and will probably have a better club next season too. Unless Foulke wants to stay on the left coast, this decision should be a no brainer for the relief ace.
As everyone knows by now, the deal is Fossum, Lyon, de la Rosa and Gross for Schilling; the Brewers are not involved. It is still a steal for the Sox. de la Rosa is a good prospect, but there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Lyon is a spare part and Gross hit 245 with 1 homer at Augusta.
Notable quotes from Gordon Edes in today's Globe.
"I think they're going to name me manager, I believe that, I hope they do, but I don't think it will be tomorrow," said Francona
"Terry is a huge part of this, if Terry gets the job," said Schilling
And more from Schilling on Francona, "If he's not the manager there, my interest in going to Boston would diminish drastically. I love playing for him, I enjoyed playing for him.
"But then I found out that Fenway Park is a worse home run park than the BOB [Bank One Ballpark in Arizona] is," Schilling said.
It is not all about the money, "We'll go where my wife and I decide is best for us. The money I get in this next contract is money on top of money I can't spend."
The stars are aligning.
Jayson Stark has a similar take on the situation.
The other big news was that Keith Foulke and Don Theo watched the C's game together. When Foulke was announced, the crowd went nuts. Foulke and the Don hit The Place after the game to watch the "Greatest Boston Sports Moments" Video reports the Dirt Dogs. Don Theo probably told Foulke that when you close out a World Series Championship, it will be the only clip in the "Greatest Boston Sports Moments" Video. Foulke will be inked.
Notable quotes from Gordon Edes in today's Globe.
"I think they're going to name me manager, I believe that, I hope they do, but I don't think it will be tomorrow," said Francona
"Terry is a huge part of this, if Terry gets the job," said Schilling
And more from Schilling on Francona, "If he's not the manager there, my interest in going to Boston would diminish drastically. I love playing for him, I enjoyed playing for him.
"But then I found out that Fenway Park is a worse home run park than the BOB [Bank One Ballpark in Arizona] is," Schilling said.
It is not all about the money, "We'll go where my wife and I decide is best for us. The money I get in this next contract is money on top of money I can't spend."
The stars are aligning.
Jayson Stark has a similar take on the situation.
The other big news was that Keith Foulke and Don Theo watched the C's game together. When Foulke was announced, the crowd went nuts. Foulke and the Don hit The Place after the game to watch the "Greatest Boston Sports Moments" Video reports the Dirt Dogs. Don Theo probably told Foulke that when you close out a World Series Championship, it will be the only clip in the "Greatest Boston Sports Moments" Video. Foulke will be inked.
Monday, November 24, 2003
Curt Schilling to Boston for Casey Fossum is being reported by Peter Gammons. Fossum would then move onto the home of cheap beer for Richie Sexson. Schilling has a no trade clause and implied he would only accept a deal if his new team extended his contract. Whispers have also emerged that Schilling, being a flyball pitcher, was against pitching at Fenway. Schilling has 72 hours to make a decision.
On the field, this is a no brainer. If healthy, Schilling is one of the best starting pitchers on the planet. Power pitchers with great control are very rare. His only small weakness, as a flyball pitcher, is that he is susceptible to the tall jack. Fossum COULD be a good starter, but questions linger about whether his frame can handle 200 innings and if he can develop a third pitch. If not, Fossum is a late relief pitcher or fairly fungible asset.
Now onto the dollars, Schilling is in the last year of his contract. He is to be paid $12 million for 2004, but half is deferred. Schilling would only cost the Sox $6 million in 2004 which is the good part. The unknown is how much would the Sox pickup of the Schilling's deferred salary totaling $16 million. The Sox commitment and the pay out dates of the deferred salary should impact the terms of the contract extension offer that is necessary for Schilling to approve a deal. Even though Schilling has shown no signs of slowing down, he is a pitcher coming off an injury at 37. The Sox should not commit to more than a $20 million (future + deferred salary) over two years to Schilling. The dollars after 2006 is somewhat meaningless. If the numbers still do not work, throw Junior Spivey's contract in the mix as well. Spivey turning the DP with Nomar is a nice thought. Fossum is nearing arbitration eligibility. He is not a valuable commodity - a prospect soon to be making good money. The D'backs appear to be aware of this, although they have a wealth of pitching, and the Brewers organization is, well, drunk.
I am not sure if any of this is making sense. I am in never-never-land (not the ranch) dreaming about a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Wake and Kim.
On the field, this is a no brainer. If healthy, Schilling is one of the best starting pitchers on the planet. Power pitchers with great control are very rare. His only small weakness, as a flyball pitcher, is that he is susceptible to the tall jack. Fossum COULD be a good starter, but questions linger about whether his frame can handle 200 innings and if he can develop a third pitch. If not, Fossum is a late relief pitcher or fairly fungible asset.
Now onto the dollars, Schilling is in the last year of his contract. He is to be paid $12 million for 2004, but half is deferred. Schilling would only cost the Sox $6 million in 2004 which is the good part. The unknown is how much would the Sox pickup of the Schilling's deferred salary totaling $16 million. The Sox commitment and the pay out dates of the deferred salary should impact the terms of the contract extension offer that is necessary for Schilling to approve a deal. Even though Schilling has shown no signs of slowing down, he is a pitcher coming off an injury at 37. The Sox should not commit to more than a $20 million (future + deferred salary) over two years to Schilling. The dollars after 2006 is somewhat meaningless. If the numbers still do not work, throw Junior Spivey's contract in the mix as well. Spivey turning the DP with Nomar is a nice thought. Fossum is nearing arbitration eligibility. He is not a valuable commodity - a prospect soon to be making good money. The D'backs appear to be aware of this, although they have a wealth of pitching, and the Brewers organization is, well, drunk.
I am not sure if any of this is making sense. I am in never-never-land (not the ranch) dreaming about a rotation of Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Wake and Kim.
Friday, November 21, 2003
FURTHER DELAY due to...
* the A's review of Mark Kotsay's MRI before signing off on the deal
* the Danys Baez saga going into the final chapter
* the massive number of transactions placing minor leaguers on 40-man rosters to avoid allowing them to be claimed in the upcoming Rule V Draft. Comments on the Sox choices will be forth coming and other notables.
Once a decision is made on the Kotsay trade, a post regarding all interesting transactions will be made.
In the meantime, rumors continue to swirl around A-Rod, Manny and Nomar. It is being reported that a third team is currently not part of an A-Rod to Boston deal so Manny will stay in Texas. Manny will be moved if A-Rod comes to the Hub. An A-Rod for Manny deal would be great for the Sox. Unfortunately, it is very unlikely to happen. The Sox would need to pony up more to acquire A-Rod. The Sox would need to take on one or more of Texas' bad contracts and/or include at least one good young, cheap pitcher along with Manny to get the $25 million man.
The Sox are not willing to pay Chan Ho-ly "Sh#t there goes another one" Park with $42 and three years left on his contract. Does Scott Boras have incriminating evidence involving blow, tequila, hookers, and a goat on Tom Hicks because I do not think Hicks is an idiot? It is possible for the Sox to absorb any combination or all of the following one-year deals: Rusty Greer ($7.4 plus a buyout), Jeff Zimmerman ($4.3) and Jay Powell ($3). The Sox have been willing to take a one-time hit in the past, but they would also be increasing a long-term liability/player's guaranteed salary in the process.
Theo has not been reluctant to move pitching prospects to help the big club. Although the most notable exception was not including Casey Fossum in a deal for Bartolo Colon last winter. The consensus is that Jorge De La Rosa is the Sox best pitching prospect, Jon Lester is another hot prospect and Jerome Gamble has just been added to the 40-man roster. If the Sox were to include any of the above three or any other cheap pitcher (Fossum, Lyon, Arroyo) Theo would have to attain similar or better players for Nomar. A deal for Nomar would likely have to be in place prior to the conclusion of acquiring A-Rod.
The final scenario begins with the Sox signing Keith Foulke making Scott Williamson expendable. The underlying notion is that effective, not dominate, middle relievers are easily replaceable in your system, through the trade market or via free agency. Williamson and Manny are traded to Texas. Williamson stablizes the Rangers pen at a reasonable rate, Manny's bat replaces A-Rod and Boston gets the best all-round player in the game.
In conclusion, a Manny, Lyon and Gamble for A-Rod and Greer deal would work out best for all parties. The Sox would be okay financially and get the AL MVP! The additional estimated $12 million would be offset by Nomar's salary coming off the books. The Rangers gain two interesting young inexpensive pitchers filing their most desperate need on the field and off, saving cash. The key for the Sox would be attaining fair value for Nomar in a deal while filling the voids in left or first and at second while staying within budget. Theo would need to be sure the task could be accomplished before pulling the trigger.
* the A's review of Mark Kotsay's MRI before signing off on the deal
* the Danys Baez saga going into the final chapter
* the massive number of transactions placing minor leaguers on 40-man rosters to avoid allowing them to be claimed in the upcoming Rule V Draft. Comments on the Sox choices will be forth coming and other notables.
Once a decision is made on the Kotsay trade, a post regarding all interesting transactions will be made.
In the meantime, rumors continue to swirl around A-Rod, Manny and Nomar. It is being reported that a third team is currently not part of an A-Rod to Boston deal so Manny will stay in Texas. Manny will be moved if A-Rod comes to the Hub. An A-Rod for Manny deal would be great for the Sox. Unfortunately, it is very unlikely to happen. The Sox would need to pony up more to acquire A-Rod. The Sox would need to take on one or more of Texas' bad contracts and/or include at least one good young, cheap pitcher along with Manny to get the $25 million man.
The Sox are not willing to pay Chan Ho-ly "Sh#t there goes another one" Park with $42 and three years left on his contract. Does Scott Boras have incriminating evidence involving blow, tequila, hookers, and a goat on Tom Hicks because I do not think Hicks is an idiot? It is possible for the Sox to absorb any combination or all of the following one-year deals: Rusty Greer ($7.4 plus a buyout), Jeff Zimmerman ($4.3) and Jay Powell ($3). The Sox have been willing to take a one-time hit in the past, but they would also be increasing a long-term liability/player's guaranteed salary in the process.
Theo has not been reluctant to move pitching prospects to help the big club. Although the most notable exception was not including Casey Fossum in a deal for Bartolo Colon last winter. The consensus is that Jorge De La Rosa is the Sox best pitching prospect, Jon Lester is another hot prospect and Jerome Gamble has just been added to the 40-man roster. If the Sox were to include any of the above three or any other cheap pitcher (Fossum, Lyon, Arroyo) Theo would have to attain similar or better players for Nomar. A deal for Nomar would likely have to be in place prior to the conclusion of acquiring A-Rod.
The final scenario begins with the Sox signing Keith Foulke making Scott Williamson expendable. The underlying notion is that effective, not dominate, middle relievers are easily replaceable in your system, through the trade market or via free agency. Williamson and Manny are traded to Texas. Williamson stablizes the Rangers pen at a reasonable rate, Manny's bat replaces A-Rod and Boston gets the best all-round player in the game.
In conclusion, a Manny, Lyon and Gamble for A-Rod and Greer deal would work out best for all parties. The Sox would be okay financially and get the AL MVP! The additional estimated $12 million would be offset by Nomar's salary coming off the books. The Rangers gain two interesting young inexpensive pitchers filing their most desperate need on the field and off, saving cash. The key for the Sox would be attaining fair value for Nomar in a deal while filling the voids in left or first and at second while staying within budget. Theo would need to be sure the task could be accomplished before pulling the trigger.
Thursday, November 20, 2003
Wednesday, November 19, 2003
DELAY
At least two big trades went down requiring much commentary which is delaying the post. The lack of confirmation on the A's - Padres deal is also contributing to the hold up, stick 'em up... Many of these deals could impact the Sox.
The Sox did make a move signing Adam Hyzdu to a minor league deal. Hyzdu has played about 50 games each of the last three years in Pitt. At 31, it is unlikely that Hyzdu's performance will improve. He has decent power, hitting 11 homers in 155abs in 2002, and plate discipline, 35 BB in 349 pa over his MLB career. He can play all spots in the outfield. Hyzdu is a cheap insurance policy. Hopefully, he plays all of 2004 in RI.
Allen Barra of Slate is a must read for a different view on the A-Rod situation. Thanks to baseballprimer.com 's clutch hits section for the link.
At least two big trades went down requiring much commentary which is delaying the post. The lack of confirmation on the A's - Padres deal is also contributing to the hold up, stick 'em up... Many of these deals could impact the Sox.
The Sox did make a move signing Adam Hyzdu to a minor league deal. Hyzdu has played about 50 games each of the last three years in Pitt. At 31, it is unlikely that Hyzdu's performance will improve. He has decent power, hitting 11 homers in 155abs in 2002, and plate discipline, 35 BB in 349 pa over his MLB career. He can play all spots in the outfield. Hyzdu is a cheap insurance policy. Hopefully, he plays all of 2004 in RI.
Allen Barra of Slate is a must read for a different view on the A-Rod situation. Thanks to baseballprimer.com 's clutch hits section for the link.
Monday, November 17, 2003
RANDOM RAMBLINGS REGARDING RUMORS RELATED TO BASEBALL
Below is from a Baseball Prospectus chat with Houston Assistant GM, Tim Purpura prior to the Wagner deal to Philly.
phil (tx): Given the exceptional performances given by Lidge and Dotel this year, what is the probability of moving Wagner?
Tim Purpura: As we have been doing for the past 6-7 years, we'll look this off-season to gain payroll flexibility and improve our club. As for trades, you are always better dealing from a position of strength and we do, as you note, have strength in the bullpen. So that maybe a target. However, to use Wagner as an example, when you make a trade it's about talent and now days it's about money. We have $8 million committed to Wag's for 04 and $9 for 05 (or a $3million buyout) so you have to find a club willing to take on that amount. Easier said than done.
Tim, your guys made it look easy.
Jason Starks take on Curt Schilling:
"There are two teams the Diamondbacks know I'll talk with if they try to make a trade with them," Schilling said. "That's the Yankees and Phillies. Other than that, there are no hidden factors, no hidden agendas."
Trading Schilling is still the Diamondbacks' most clear-cut way to open enough payroll space to make budget and deal for a one-year rental of Richie Sexson. And Schilling is an astute enough observer of the baseball scene to know that the free-agent crowd, a year from now, will include Pedro Martinez, Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris and Kerry Wood. And at 38, he'll be considerably older than all those other aces.
And if he's going to be a sensible businessman about this, given his alternatives, wouldn't it be wiser to negotiate his best deal with the Yankees now than to wait and take his chances in a year? Heck, yes.
"You know," Schilling laughed, "it's not rocket science."
It is about the Benjamins for Schilling. The Sox are out because they will not extend the aging power pitcher. Schilling will be a MFY because they are the only club that has the resources and the tolerance for foolish contracts. Schilling will get three years at $36 million. BTW, the Sox should pull a Corleno-esque scheme by drugging Brian Cashman, planting him with a dead hooker and have Mike Port take care of the situation. Cashman would be in debt to Don Theo. It could happen; the winter meetings are in the Southern City of Sin, New Orleans.
Good news from Stark is that...Sources who have spoken with the Yankees say they're convinced Guerrero has no serious interest in playing in New York, and they're wary of being used to drive up his price tag.
Back to bad news...teams and agents that have spoken with the Astros think there's no way they could even come close to the four-year, $52-million deal the Yankees are reportedly ready to hand Pettitte.
The decision for A.P. seems like a family versus career decision.
More from Stark...One GM predicted last week that Greg Maddux will wind up in Boston. But every indication is that Maddux prefers to stay in the National League, for all sorts of reasons...Atlanta, then one of the NL West teams not located in Colorado
No way Maddux in Beantown; San Diego appears to be a good fit. Word is it is Maddux or Wells. If David Wells signs with San Diego, just a short train ride to Tijuanauina, it has international incident written all over it and possibly the repeal of NAFTA.
Jason gets all the good stuff..."I think Fred is obsessed with bringing a big name into New York," our source says. "And he might do it whether it makes sense or not."
Rebuilding is not an option and it would substantiate the daily rumors from the New York tabloids that Cameron, Millwood, Koch, Foulke, Escobar, Urbina, Tejada and A-Rod are all heading to Flushing. Hey, what about Ramirez?
Speaking of Manny...I concur with Ed Cossette regarding Gammons' latest tease in Manny-gate.
Adam Kennedy was believed to be a potential non-tender option for the Angels, but The Post has learned Anaheim is certain to offer him a contract and not expose him to other teams.
If this turns out to be true, which would not be a surprise since the new owner will raise payroll to $90 million, it squashes my first choice for the Sox second base vacancy.
Toronto Sun: "J.P. Ricciardi yesterday went shopping for a closer. In the afternoon he met with Rick Thurman, agent for free agent right-hander Tom Gordon."
Gordon could be the steal of the relief pitching free agent market. J.P. is a smart man and I bet he has had ice cream from J.P. Licks.
Below is from a Baseball Prospectus chat with Houston Assistant GM, Tim Purpura prior to the Wagner deal to Philly.
phil (tx): Given the exceptional performances given by Lidge and Dotel this year, what is the probability of moving Wagner?
Tim Purpura: As we have been doing for the past 6-7 years, we'll look this off-season to gain payroll flexibility and improve our club. As for trades, you are always better dealing from a position of strength and we do, as you note, have strength in the bullpen. So that maybe a target. However, to use Wagner as an example, when you make a trade it's about talent and now days it's about money. We have $8 million committed to Wag's for 04 and $9 for 05 (or a $3million buyout) so you have to find a club willing to take on that amount. Easier said than done.
Tim, your guys made it look easy.
Jason Starks take on Curt Schilling:
"There are two teams the Diamondbacks know I'll talk with if they try to make a trade with them," Schilling said. "That's the Yankees and Phillies. Other than that, there are no hidden factors, no hidden agendas."
Trading Schilling is still the Diamondbacks' most clear-cut way to open enough payroll space to make budget and deal for a one-year rental of Richie Sexson. And Schilling is an astute enough observer of the baseball scene to know that the free-agent crowd, a year from now, will include Pedro Martinez, Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris and Kerry Wood. And at 38, he'll be considerably older than all those other aces.
And if he's going to be a sensible businessman about this, given his alternatives, wouldn't it be wiser to negotiate his best deal with the Yankees now than to wait and take his chances in a year? Heck, yes.
"You know," Schilling laughed, "it's not rocket science."
It is about the Benjamins for Schilling. The Sox are out because they will not extend the aging power pitcher. Schilling will be a MFY because they are the only club that has the resources and the tolerance for foolish contracts. Schilling will get three years at $36 million. BTW, the Sox should pull a Corleno-esque scheme by drugging Brian Cashman, planting him with a dead hooker and have Mike Port take care of the situation. Cashman would be in debt to Don Theo. It could happen; the winter meetings are in the Southern City of Sin, New Orleans.
Good news from Stark is that...Sources who have spoken with the Yankees say they're convinced Guerrero has no serious interest in playing in New York, and they're wary of being used to drive up his price tag.
Back to bad news...teams and agents that have spoken with the Astros think there's no way they could even come close to the four-year, $52-million deal the Yankees are reportedly ready to hand Pettitte.
The decision for A.P. seems like a family versus career decision.
More from Stark...One GM predicted last week that Greg Maddux will wind up in Boston. But every indication is that Maddux prefers to stay in the National League, for all sorts of reasons...Atlanta, then one of the NL West teams not located in Colorado
No way Maddux in Beantown; San Diego appears to be a good fit. Word is it is Maddux or Wells. If David Wells signs with San Diego, just a short train ride to Tijuanauina, it has international incident written all over it and possibly the repeal of NAFTA.
Jason gets all the good stuff..."I think Fred is obsessed with bringing a big name into New York," our source says. "And he might do it whether it makes sense or not."
Rebuilding is not an option and it would substantiate the daily rumors from the New York tabloids that Cameron, Millwood, Koch, Foulke, Escobar, Urbina, Tejada and A-Rod are all heading to Flushing. Hey, what about Ramirez?
Speaking of Manny...I concur with Ed Cossette regarding Gammons' latest tease in Manny-gate.
Adam Kennedy was believed to be a potential non-tender option for the Angels, but The Post has learned Anaheim is certain to offer him a contract and not expose him to other teams.
If this turns out to be true, which would not be a surprise since the new owner will raise payroll to $90 million, it squashes my first choice for the Sox second base vacancy.
Toronto Sun: "J.P. Ricciardi yesterday went shopping for a closer. In the afternoon he met with Rick Thurman, agent for free agent right-hander Tom Gordon."
Gordon could be the steal of the relief pitching free agent market. J.P. is a smart man and I bet he has had ice cream from J.P. Licks.
Friday, November 14, 2003
UPDATE
Over the next two weeks, I will be cutting back on posts, only Monday Rumors and Wednesday transactions. But still keep stopping by because I will be working on updating and adding links. I have noticed some new sites that are very good and I think you will enjoy as well. I plan on using the extra free time to finish unpacking from my move in September, learn how to freestyle so I do not get my ass kicked playing NBA Live online, get thoroughly frustrated watching the C's and drink plenty of H2O with barley and hops. I also will work on my State of the Sox address which I hope to post after my favorite holiday. Originally, I wanted to wait until players were non-tendered but I will just revise it as transactions occur and provide an updated SOSA in the Wednesday Transactions post.
Over the next two weeks, I will be cutting back on posts, only Monday Rumors and Wednesday transactions. But still keep stopping by because I will be working on updating and adding links. I have noticed some new sites that are very good and I think you will enjoy as well. I plan on using the extra free time to finish unpacking from my move in September, learn how to freestyle so I do not get my ass kicked playing NBA Live online, get thoroughly frustrated watching the C's and drink plenty of H2O with barley and hops. I also will work on my State of the Sox address which I hope to post after my favorite holiday. Originally, I wanted to wait until players were non-tendered but I will just revise it as transactions occur and provide an updated SOSA in the Wednesday Transactions post.
Thursday, November 13, 2003
FREE IS MY SECOND FAVORITE FOUR LETTER "F" WORD
Freely Available Talent (FAT) is not exactly free. In the SABR world, my understanding of the term is acquiring a player without giving up any player or much cash in return. FAT can come in different ways like the Rule V draft, the waiver wire, and minor league free agents. Aaron Gleeman describes the subject and lists 2003's successful minor league free agents and his picks for next season. I like Aaron's choices and here are my own (Aaron names two of the four, but I'll comment on them):
•Willie Banks is a mop-up pitcher that saves your more valuable arms in the pen when the game is out of hand. He gives the club a better chance of winning tomorrow. On pitching staffs that go eleven and sometimes twelve deep, a club can give Willie Banks a spot.
•Tsuyoshi Shinjo can't hit for a lick but the man is a top defensive player in the outfield and can take a base. Shinjo has some value as a fifth outfielder/backup centerfielder either on the 25-man or waiting in AAA. A contending team could use Shinjo as an insurance policy for center. As a September callup, Shinjo could be a defensive and pinch running replacement. A rebuilding team, especially one with a huge outfield, might want to carry Shinjo for his glove. Nothing helps a pitcher's confidence more than a good defense behind him – Detroit.
•Mark Johnson is a catcher, patient left-handed hitter and mentioned in Moneyball. Scouting reports rate him as a decent defensive catcher. Without much pop in the bat and going on 28, Johnson probably can not hold down a backup catching gig but he is worth a look as a third catcher in AAA until September call ups. Johnson is a good catching insurance policy specifically for teams that value plate discipline.
•Eric Hilijus has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in the majors with a 2.3 K/BB ratio. Hilly’s major issue has been serving up the deep flies – 18 in 111 MLB innings. E.H. is no spring chicken at 31, but guys with good K and BB rates have the potential for success in the right situation. E.H. is worth a minor league deal. E.H. pitching in the spacious new Tiger Stadium would be a good fit.
Freely Available Talent (FAT) is not exactly free. In the SABR world, my understanding of the term is acquiring a player without giving up any player or much cash in return. FAT can come in different ways like the Rule V draft, the waiver wire, and minor league free agents. Aaron Gleeman describes the subject and lists 2003's successful minor league free agents and his picks for next season. I like Aaron's choices and here are my own (Aaron names two of the four, but I'll comment on them):
•Willie Banks is a mop-up pitcher that saves your more valuable arms in the pen when the game is out of hand. He gives the club a better chance of winning tomorrow. On pitching staffs that go eleven and sometimes twelve deep, a club can give Willie Banks a spot.
•Tsuyoshi Shinjo can't hit for a lick but the man is a top defensive player in the outfield and can take a base. Shinjo has some value as a fifth outfielder/backup centerfielder either on the 25-man or waiting in AAA. A contending team could use Shinjo as an insurance policy for center. As a September callup, Shinjo could be a defensive and pinch running replacement. A rebuilding team, especially one with a huge outfield, might want to carry Shinjo for his glove. Nothing helps a pitcher's confidence more than a good defense behind him – Detroit.
•Mark Johnson is a catcher, patient left-handed hitter and mentioned in Moneyball. Scouting reports rate him as a decent defensive catcher. Without much pop in the bat and going on 28, Johnson probably can not hold down a backup catching gig but he is worth a look as a third catcher in AAA until September call ups. Johnson is a good catching insurance policy specifically for teams that value plate discipline.
•Eric Hilijus has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in the majors with a 2.3 K/BB ratio. Hilly’s major issue has been serving up the deep flies – 18 in 111 MLB innings. E.H. is no spring chicken at 31, but guys with good K and BB rates have the potential for success in the right situation. E.H. is worth a minor league deal. E.H. pitching in the spacious new Tiger Stadium would be a good fit.
Tuesday, November 11, 2003
Baseball transactions and rumors. It is time to heat up the Hot Stove for the winter.
NOMAH, A-ROD, MANNY...here is my take
Assuming Manny can not be moved, the rumored three-way will not go down. Theo is not going to commit roughly $45 million or 40% of his budget to two players over the next several years. The Rangers would have to eat a good chunk of A-Rod's contract about $7 - $10 million each year for it to be about market value at $15-$18 million per season. It will not happen but Nomar will be traded if he does not sign a below market deal.
More rumors in the future, but now onto the transactions. Please note that "market" or "market rate" refers to the salary a similar player received last season.
Jose Valentin, SS, Other Sox - club exercised $5 million option for 2004. At 34, no reasonable person would think that Valentin is going to improve upon his 2003 numbers (237/313/463) which have now declined two years in a row from 2001. Even as a switch hitter, Valentin can not hit LHP (157/224/491). Most regular Other Sox observers think he has little value in the field at SS. Chop off a zero at the end of ValentinÂs salary and you have his real worth.
Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Padres - club declined $10 million option, resigned for one-year and an option for 2005. Not sure on the 2004 salary, but Hoffman got a $2 million buy out. As long-time Padre, this is good for Hoffman, the Padres and the fans.
Derek Lowe, RHP, Red Sox - club picked up option for $4.5 million. No surprise that the Sox picked up the below market option on Lowe. He signed the current deal when he was a reliever. As a closer, this deal would be in line with the current market. The issue is whether or not the Sox and Lowe can agree on a long-term deal. Boras is Lowe's agent so a long-term deal is unlikely which may not be a negative for the Sox.
Robert Fick, 1B, Braves - cleared unconditional waivers becoming a free agent. It is apparent that the Braves were not going to offer Fick a contract. He would be non-tendered; thus Fick was put out on waivers to gauge if any teams had interest allowing the Braves to get something for nothing. No team wanted Fick at his estimed arbitrationtion figure and went unclaimed. It is surprising that more teams to do not go this route, perhaps I am missing something though.
Matt Clement, RHP, Cubs - club picked up $6 million option. It seems to be market rate for Clement. A win-win for both the club and player. Clement still has upside. He can be dominate and the Cubs are playing for that potential.
Pokey Reese, 2b, Pirates - club declined $5.125 million option. No way is a no hit player at any position worth $5. Plus, the Pirates have Dirty Sanchez or Bobby - Hank's son - Hill to play second with similar production for only 300k. A no brainer.
NOMAH, A-ROD, MANNY...here is my take
Assuming Manny can not be moved, the rumored three-way will not go down. Theo is not going to commit roughly $45 million or 40% of his budget to two players over the next several years. The Rangers would have to eat a good chunk of A-Rod's contract about $7 - $10 million each year for it to be about market value at $15-$18 million per season. It will not happen but Nomar will be traded if he does not sign a below market deal.
More rumors in the future, but now onto the transactions. Please note that "market" or "market rate" refers to the salary a similar player received last season.
Jose Valentin, SS, Other Sox - club exercised $5 million option for 2004. At 34, no reasonable person would think that Valentin is going to improve upon his 2003 numbers (237/313/463) which have now declined two years in a row from 2001. Even as a switch hitter, Valentin can not hit LHP (157/224/491). Most regular Other Sox observers think he has little value in the field at SS. Chop off a zero at the end of ValentinÂs salary and you have his real worth.
Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Padres - club declined $10 million option, resigned for one-year and an option for 2005. Not sure on the 2004 salary, but Hoffman got a $2 million buy out. As long-time Padre, this is good for Hoffman, the Padres and the fans.
Derek Lowe, RHP, Red Sox - club picked up option for $4.5 million. No surprise that the Sox picked up the below market option on Lowe. He signed the current deal when he was a reliever. As a closer, this deal would be in line with the current market. The issue is whether or not the Sox and Lowe can agree on a long-term deal. Boras is Lowe's agent so a long-term deal is unlikely which may not be a negative for the Sox.
Robert Fick, 1B, Braves - cleared unconditional waivers becoming a free agent. It is apparent that the Braves were not going to offer Fick a contract. He would be non-tendered; thus Fick was put out on waivers to gauge if any teams had interest allowing the Braves to get something for nothing. No team wanted Fick at his estimed arbitrationtion figure and went unclaimed. It is surprising that more teams to do not go this route, perhaps I am missing something though.
Matt Clement, RHP, Cubs - club picked up $6 million option. It seems to be market rate for Clement. A win-win for both the club and player. Clement still has upside. He can be dominate and the Cubs are playing for that potential.
Pokey Reese, 2b, Pirates - club declined $5.125 million option. No way is a no hit player at any position worth $5. Plus, the Pirates have Dirty Sanchez or Bobby - Hank's son - Hill to play second with similar production for only 300k. A no brainer.
Monday, November 10, 2003
Fantasy Hoops Draft
I am usually the Commish for my fantasy leagues (hoops, football and of course baseball). Often I write summaries about our league. All of the players get a kick out of it. Since I started this site, I have neglected that duty as Commish. I have not been producing the customary number of summaries. Ever the guru of efficiency or laziness, here is our hoops draft summary (note our league did not have a live draft; we pre-ranked and used the auto so I will go easy on the boys).
Round 1 - a couple of surprises - Shaq going three to Furios F@#$in' Fig Newtons and Yao Ming Dynasty to boobies. I guess the Shaq Fantasy principle is not common knowledge. Ming was going in the third round in most drafts; the first of weird picks from the boobies.
Round 2 - nothing to note. Is it just a coincidence that Michael Redd plays and Red Foreman lives both in Wisconsin? "Milwaukee is the most underrated drinking city in America." Sorry off the meds again - reality, television, Nurse Betty.
Round 3 - Doug "no testicle" Christ Your Wipped was taken as the first selection of the round even though his playing will drop with Bibby back. Jason "White Chocolate" Williams was an early selection by the F'in' Fig Newtons. The commercial with him and Moss with the theme song to Dukes of Hazard in the background were hilarious. I need a TiVo. Boobies selected Carmelo Anthony in front of not only LeBron James, but former Man Show guest, Karl Malone, Mr. Double-Double, Shareef A-R, Rashard Lewis, Vinsanity and the Baron of N.O. to name a few.
Round 4 - Latrell Spreewell taken by the F@#$ed Up Fig Newtons, but even funnier than the pick is the fact that Spreewell has to live the winter in Minnesota. Shane Battier - WTF? Boobies finally make a solid pick, Stephon Marbury, a steal at 29.
Round 5 - Two nice picks, Vince Carter and Baron Davis, both dropped due to injuries last season. Tony Parker is a stretch in the fifth. Gilbert, Billups, and Bibby should have been rated higher than T.P. by boobies.
Round 6 - Webber could be a difference maker. Risky pick by the Jager Bombs. Gilbert, Billups and Artest were nice selections at this point. I just have to say that I hate Kenyon Martin after the magazine cover. If he played in the West, he would be average at best.
Round 7,8,9,10 - Kurt Thomas in the seventh with his center eligibility is a nice pick. Andre Miller could get it going since he is out of Clipper-land. Derek Anderson? Mo Pete? Derek Fisher? Tim Thomas? All on the same team. Are you kidding me? Bibby in the ninth is a steal by Tommy Points. Donyell Marshall, Glen Robinson and Brad Miller are solid selections by WTF. Shawn Bradley versus Minnie Me in Ultimate Fighting would be awesome.
Pickups - Dillons Dildo Loving Drunks tagged Boozer. P Squared got Zach Randolph out of the Portland Penal System.
Are there any openings at Vandelay Industries?
I am usually the Commish for my fantasy leagues (hoops, football and of course baseball). Often I write summaries about our league. All of the players get a kick out of it. Since I started this site, I have neglected that duty as Commish. I have not been producing the customary number of summaries. Ever the guru of efficiency or laziness, here is our hoops draft summary (note our league did not have a live draft; we pre-ranked and used the auto so I will go easy on the boys).
Round 1 - a couple of surprises - Shaq going three to Furios F@#$in' Fig Newtons and Yao Ming Dynasty to boobies. I guess the Shaq Fantasy principle is not common knowledge. Ming was going in the third round in most drafts; the first of weird picks from the boobies.
Round 2 - nothing to note. Is it just a coincidence that Michael Redd plays and Red Foreman lives both in Wisconsin? "Milwaukee is the most underrated drinking city in America." Sorry off the meds again - reality, television, Nurse Betty.
Round 3 - Doug "no testicle" Christ Your Wipped was taken as the first selection of the round even though his playing will drop with Bibby back. Jason "White Chocolate" Williams was an early selection by the F'in' Fig Newtons. The commercial with him and Moss with the theme song to Dukes of Hazard in the background were hilarious. I need a TiVo. Boobies selected Carmelo Anthony in front of not only LeBron James, but former Man Show guest, Karl Malone, Mr. Double-Double, Shareef A-R, Rashard Lewis, Vinsanity and the Baron of N.O. to name a few.
Round 4 - Latrell Spreewell taken by the F@#$ed Up Fig Newtons, but even funnier than the pick is the fact that Spreewell has to live the winter in Minnesota. Shane Battier - WTF? Boobies finally make a solid pick, Stephon Marbury, a steal at 29.
Round 5 - Two nice picks, Vince Carter and Baron Davis, both dropped due to injuries last season. Tony Parker is a stretch in the fifth. Gilbert, Billups, and Bibby should have been rated higher than T.P. by boobies.
Round 6 - Webber could be a difference maker. Risky pick by the Jager Bombs. Gilbert, Billups and Artest were nice selections at this point. I just have to say that I hate Kenyon Martin after the magazine cover. If he played in the West, he would be average at best.
Round 7,8,9,10 - Kurt Thomas in the seventh with his center eligibility is a nice pick. Andre Miller could get it going since he is out of Clipper-land. Derek Anderson? Mo Pete? Derek Fisher? Tim Thomas? All on the same team. Are you kidding me? Bibby in the ninth is a steal by Tommy Points. Donyell Marshall, Glen Robinson and Brad Miller are solid selections by WTF. Shawn Bradley versus Minnie Me in Ultimate Fighting would be awesome.
Pickups - Dillons Dildo Loving Drunks tagged Boozer. P Squared got Zach Randolph out of the Portland Penal System.
Are there any openings at Vandelay Industries?
Sunday, November 09, 2003
WHO IS YOUR QUEEN?
Gammons adds a few more logs to the baseball Hot Stove.
Every group has a gossip queen - the busy body with the cell phone attached to the ear - into everyone's business for better or for worst. In baseball, it is Peter Gammons. Gammons' latest has some interesting rumors/notes that are below followed by my take.
The Yanks, O's and Anaheim have money to spend. The Cubs, Sox, Mets, M's, Giants and Philly have some flexibility and that is it. - No surprises. "Cash is king."
New Dodger owner Frank McCourt is not going to re-run the Kevin Malone follies that left them strapped. - Manny will not be heading to L.A.
...the Red Sox have about $10 million to spend unless they can free payroll... - Wonderful news!
That, in turn, will delay the majority of the signings, and that, in turn, will spawn another round of that baseball Christmas classic, "Collusion Blues." - Gammons tries to make a funny, but it smells fishy like everything Buddy touches.
Mike Cameron to the Mets. - Weren't the Mets going to rebuild the farm?
Wherever the Expos end up, baseball owes a debt of gratitude to Minaya for holding things together in a very difficult situation. And scouting director Dana Brown deserves a tip of the cap, as well. - Yes, but they could have done a better job. Frank Robinson is the man!
If the Royals do trade Carlos Beltran, they want a catcher and a third baseman, both young, both major-league ready. - Kelly Shoppach and Kevin Youkilis, Mr. Baird?
Tidbits regarding the W.S. Champion, Florida/Miami Marlins from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Scott Boras,...``Pudge will consider giving the Marlins a hometown discount when the Marlins give a discount to people who live in Miami and buy tickets to the games.'' - How about starting with Loria returning the $78 million he stands to receive from a new stadium deal?
Marlins pitching coach Wayne Rosenthal said he believes pitcher A.J. Burnett will return to the majors from elbow surgery ''no later than two months into next season.'' Beinfest declined to say if Burnett will be offered arbitration. ''It's all part of how we're going to look at allocation [of money] for everybody,'' he said. - Would pitching as a closer/relief ace be an easier transition back for Burnett?
The Marlins have sold more than 1,000 season tickets since winning the World Series. - It is winning not new stadiums that bring in fans and additional revenue.
Gammons adds a few more logs to the baseball Hot Stove.
Every group has a gossip queen - the busy body with the cell phone attached to the ear - into everyone's business for better or for worst. In baseball, it is Peter Gammons. Gammons' latest has some interesting rumors/notes that are below followed by my take.
The Yanks, O's and Anaheim have money to spend. The Cubs, Sox, Mets, M's, Giants and Philly have some flexibility and that is it. - No surprises. "Cash is king."
New Dodger owner Frank McCourt is not going to re-run the Kevin Malone follies that left them strapped. - Manny will not be heading to L.A.
...the Red Sox have about $10 million to spend unless they can free payroll... - Wonderful news!
That, in turn, will delay the majority of the signings, and that, in turn, will spawn another round of that baseball Christmas classic, "Collusion Blues." - Gammons tries to make a funny, but it smells fishy like everything Buddy touches.
Mike Cameron to the Mets. - Weren't the Mets going to rebuild the farm?
Wherever the Expos end up, baseball owes a debt of gratitude to Minaya for holding things together in a very difficult situation. And scouting director Dana Brown deserves a tip of the cap, as well. - Yes, but they could have done a better job. Frank Robinson is the man!
If the Royals do trade Carlos Beltran, they want a catcher and a third baseman, both young, both major-league ready. - Kelly Shoppach and Kevin Youkilis, Mr. Baird?
Tidbits regarding the W.S. Champion, Florida/Miami Marlins from Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
Scott Boras,...``Pudge will consider giving the Marlins a hometown discount when the Marlins give a discount to people who live in Miami and buy tickets to the games.'' - How about starting with Loria returning the $78 million he stands to receive from a new stadium deal?
Marlins pitching coach Wayne Rosenthal said he believes pitcher A.J. Burnett will return to the majors from elbow surgery ''no later than two months into next season.'' Beinfest declined to say if Burnett will be offered arbitration. ''It's all part of how we're going to look at allocation [of money] for everybody,'' he said. - Would pitching as a closer/relief ace be an easier transition back for Burnett?
The Marlins have sold more than 1,000 season tickets since winning the World Series. - It is winning not new stadiums that bring in fans and additional revenue.
Friday, November 07, 2003
While eating lunch, I discovered that Rob Neyer has an excellent piece on the four-man rotation and the Red Sox. I agree with Neyer that it will not happen in 2004. Pedro will prevent it (he is having a press conference at 3pm.), but 2005 is a real possibility.
Wednesday, November 05, 2003
WAGNER TO PHILLY DEAL
The first big move of winter baseball.
This is a good deal for Houston - Billy Wagner for Brandon Duckworth and two pitching prospects. Yes, an all-star closer for a disappointing pitching prospect and two irrelevant minor league pitchers is a good deal for the Astros. "Cash is king" and the Astros saved roughly $11 million ($8 owed to Wagner in 2004 and a $3 buyout). The Astros should also not loose much production from their pen. Dotel, Lidge and company should be more than adequate. On top of it all, the timing of the deal was perrrrrrrrfect. It should allow the Astros to make a real offer to Andy Pettitte.
On the flip side, Philly gets the security of knowing that they filled their greatest perceived need - a closer - early in the off-season. It was very costly move and unnecessary based on the demand and supply for "proven closers." Assuming only contending teams need a "proven closer," the clubs possibly in the market along with Philly would have been the Twins, other Sox, A's, Mariners, Miami, Cubbies, Padres and Giants. Only Seattle could realistically make a similar deal for Wagner. The other teams could not afford $11 million to one player not even considering he is a closer that will pitch less than 90 innings (perhaps, the Cubs but the Astros would not trade with a division rival). If Seattle was going to make a play for Wagner, cost cutting moves would need to be taken before or included in a deal. Thus, there was no need for Philly to move quickly on Wagner. Houston only had Philly to dance with but Wade had the entire free agent market.
The deal gets even more perplexing as Jason Starks gets into the details of the negotiations for espn.com.
The Phillies were one of those teams. And once they got that call, it was the Phillies -- not the Astros -- who pushed the envelope.
Over the next week, Wade estimates, he and Hunsicker swapped "eight or nine phone calls." Then, a week and a half ago, Wade flew to Houston for a memorial service -- but used the occasion to meet with Hunsicker and Astros president Tal Smith in person, "just to show how serious our interest was."
"We met for about an hour," Wade said. "But it was actually all night, because I stayed overnight at Tal Smith's house. Then we met the next morning in Tal's library -- which, by the way, is not located on Tal's Hill."
When he left that meeting, however, Wade said he was convinced this deal "wasn't going to happen, because of the names involved. I got a little stubborn on a couple of names."
But once he became convinced that balking on Buchholz would be a deal-breaker, Wade relented.
Starks goes on to report that...
Clearing money was enough of a priority for the Astros that they were willing to move this fast. But it was the Phillies who were determined to get their biggest offseason objective cleared off the board before the free-agent negotiating period had even begun.
"The Astros were very respectful and responsive, from the standpoint of me saying, I need to know now," Wade said. "I said, 'We can't go forward, left or right, with the closer or anything else, until we know if we're taking on an $8-million closer or, potentially, a $17-million closer. It's sort of a big deal.' Fortunately, they were willing to move at the same pace."
The Tal Smith had Ed Wade wrapped around his finger. He still doesn't get it. Of course, they were willing to move at the same FAST pace. The Astros want to free up cash to make a play for Andy. Houston is probably upset at themselves for not asking for better prospects.
Philly fans be afraid, be very afraid and hope the new stadium yields a budget similar to the other clubs that border Jersey. If not, it is going to be difficult to sure up the questions at second, third, center, middle relief and the back of the rotation.
For more of a pure on the field baseball analysis of the deal check out Ben and Aaron.
The first big move of winter baseball.
This is a good deal for Houston - Billy Wagner for Brandon Duckworth and two pitching prospects. Yes, an all-star closer for a disappointing pitching prospect and two irrelevant minor league pitchers is a good deal for the Astros. "Cash is king" and the Astros saved roughly $11 million ($8 owed to Wagner in 2004 and a $3 buyout). The Astros should also not loose much production from their pen. Dotel, Lidge and company should be more than adequate. On top of it all, the timing of the deal was perrrrrrrrfect. It should allow the Astros to make a real offer to Andy Pettitte.
On the flip side, Philly gets the security of knowing that they filled their greatest perceived need - a closer - early in the off-season. It was very costly move and unnecessary based on the demand and supply for "proven closers." Assuming only contending teams need a "proven closer," the clubs possibly in the market along with Philly would have been the Twins, other Sox, A's, Mariners, Miami, Cubbies, Padres and Giants. Only Seattle could realistically make a similar deal for Wagner. The other teams could not afford $11 million to one player not even considering he is a closer that will pitch less than 90 innings (perhaps, the Cubs but the Astros would not trade with a division rival). If Seattle was going to make a play for Wagner, cost cutting moves would need to be taken before or included in a deal. Thus, there was no need for Philly to move quickly on Wagner. Houston only had Philly to dance with but Wade had the entire free agent market.
The deal gets even more perplexing as Jason Starks gets into the details of the negotiations for espn.com.
The Phillies were one of those teams. And once they got that call, it was the Phillies -- not the Astros -- who pushed the envelope.
Over the next week, Wade estimates, he and Hunsicker swapped "eight or nine phone calls." Then, a week and a half ago, Wade flew to Houston for a memorial service -- but used the occasion to meet with Hunsicker and Astros president Tal Smith in person, "just to show how serious our interest was."
"We met for about an hour," Wade said. "But it was actually all night, because I stayed overnight at Tal Smith's house. Then we met the next morning in Tal's library -- which, by the way, is not located on Tal's Hill."
When he left that meeting, however, Wade said he was convinced this deal "wasn't going to happen, because of the names involved. I got a little stubborn on a couple of names."
But once he became convinced that balking on Buchholz would be a deal-breaker, Wade relented.
Starks goes on to report that...
Clearing money was enough of a priority for the Astros that they were willing to move this fast. But it was the Phillies who were determined to get their biggest offseason objective cleared off the board before the free-agent negotiating period had even begun.
"The Astros were very respectful and responsive, from the standpoint of me saying, I need to know now," Wade said. "I said, 'We can't go forward, left or right, with the closer or anything else, until we know if we're taking on an $8-million closer or, potentially, a $17-million closer. It's sort of a big deal.' Fortunately, they were willing to move at the same pace."
The Tal Smith had Ed Wade wrapped around his finger. He still doesn't get it. Of course, they were willing to move at the same FAST pace. The Astros want to free up cash to make a play for Andy. Houston is probably upset at themselves for not asking for better prospects.
Philly fans be afraid, be very afraid and hope the new stadium yields a budget similar to the other clubs that border Jersey. If not, it is going to be difficult to sure up the questions at second, third, center, middle relief and the back of the rotation.
For more of a pure on the field baseball analysis of the deal check out Ben and Aaron.
Baseball transactions and rumors. It is time to heat up the Hot Stove for the winter.
I will be addressing the big Billy Wagner deal tomorrow in its own post. I apologize for all five folks looking for it today. Enjoy.
• Julio Lugo, SS, Tampa – one-year option exercised for $1.75 million. Lugo is coming off his best season. He demonstrates decent plate discipline without any pop at the plate. He is not a bad option at SS for Tampa. The move ends the possibility that Antonio Perez (who came from Seattle with Sweet Lou) will become the future shortstop. Perez should start as the Rays second baseman in 2004 and beyond.
• Rick Peterson, Pitching Coach, Mets – Peterson is reunited with Howe and going home to Jersey. Peterson is given some credit for the success of the A’s staff and most notably keeping his young pitchers healthy based on the latest biomechanical teaching from Dr. Andrews. The interesting part of the transaction is that no compensation was asked for by the A’s. It makes me wonder how much Beane thinks of Peterson. The Oakland organization is focused on processes or systems. Is it more the system or Peterson? This is assuming that Beane and Peterson did not have a gentlemen's agreement allowing him to walk if a New York team called. Either way, comparing the Mets and A’s ability to keep their pitchers healthy over the next few years will be a topic for discussion.
• Frank Thomas, DH/1B, Other Sox – exercised his $6 million option. Good for Frank, Other Sox fans and ownership.
• Travis Lee, 1B, Tampa – club declined to exercise one-year $2.5 million option. Lee is an average first baseman. Many other similar players will be out on the market after all of the non-tenders. Lee and Lee types should command between 750K to $1.5 million for one year if last season is any indication. The Rays made the right choice.
• Paul Quantrill, RHP, Dodgers - player voided his final year worth $3.1 million and is a free agent. Quantrill has been one of the most effective set-up men since coming over from the Jays a couple of years ago. Assuming that Quantrill will try to play back-to-back low ERA seasons into a multi-year deal similar to Mike Remlinger, this is a very risky move; it is a very volatile market. A mult-year deal is possible but buyer beware. In Quantrill’s two highly successful seasons in L.A., his K/IN is slightly over a half which is not good for a reliever who is expected to get out of someone else’s jams. Quantrill’s K/BB and HR rates are good, but he will be 35 and has thrown a ton of innings out of the pen over the last four year totaling 319.
• Estaben Loaiza, RHP, Other Sox – club exercised option at $4 million. It is amazing what a slight change of grip to a baseball can do to for a man’s career. Nice job by Loaiza for learning the cutter and the Sox staff for teaching it. The Sox are rewarded for taking a risk on Loaiza last season. Loaiza’s signing last season was a smart low risk – high reward deal. Sometimes they work out and sometimes (Jeff Suppan) they do not.
• Russ Ortiz, RHP, Atlanta – club exercised option at $5.7 million. Ortiz is a typical number three starter on a playoff team. He is probably worth the one-year option.
• Sammy Sosa, RF, Cubs – player exercised option at $17 million. Good for Sammy. Good for Cubs fans. Good for baseball. Okay for the Tribune Company, but who really cares about them.
• Tony Pena and Allard Baird received two year contract extensions from the Royals. What a big difference one lucky year makes. Rob Neyer does a very nice job evaluating the Royals for espn.com.
• Jason Bere, RHP, Cleveland – signed a minor league deal. If healthy, which is a big IF, Bere can be the innings eater the Indians are looking for with their young starters. A nice low risk acquisition for a rebuilding club that fits a need.
• Fernando Vina, 2B, St. Louie – club declined option for $8 million. Vina's performance has suffered and in a changing market place not even Jackie Childs could agrue that Vina is worth $8 million. The Cards have Bo Hart (the Hitman’s other brother?) a cheaper double play partner for Renteria. The decision was an easy one for Jocketty. Vina will find a job, perhaps in Boston, for around a couple million in 2004.
• The Pirates are cutting ticket prices by 30 percent. PNC Park is the best place to watch a ballgame. It is not only my opinion but the folks over at espn.com agree after surveying all 30 MLB park. So why are they cutting ticket prices to attract customers? Because winning teams bring in the fans and revenue not new parks over the long haul. The notion that an owner needs a new publicly financed park to increase revenue to increase payroll to be competitive is a load of crap. Are you hearing me Miami?
• Edgar Martinez, DH, Seattle – signed a $3 million + incentives one-year deal. Like Sammy and Chicago, Edgar belongs in Seattle. Unlike the Sammy transaction, this deal works for everyone even the Mariners owners.
• David “insert insult” Wells, LHP, MFY – club decline $6 million option. Wells could be resigned and I would bet on it. The Wagner deal (Hidalgo should not need to go too) should pave the way for Andy P. to pitch at home in Houston. The MFY will need an eighth starter and Wells should come cheap for the MFY. He loves them. The MFY also declined options on White and Heredia and indicate they would like to re-sign both.
I will be addressing the big Billy Wagner deal tomorrow in its own post. I apologize for all five folks looking for it today. Enjoy.
• Julio Lugo, SS, Tampa – one-year option exercised for $1.75 million. Lugo is coming off his best season. He demonstrates decent plate discipline without any pop at the plate. He is not a bad option at SS for Tampa. The move ends the possibility that Antonio Perez (who came from Seattle with Sweet Lou) will become the future shortstop. Perez should start as the Rays second baseman in 2004 and beyond.
• Rick Peterson, Pitching Coach, Mets – Peterson is reunited with Howe and going home to Jersey. Peterson is given some credit for the success of the A’s staff and most notably keeping his young pitchers healthy based on the latest biomechanical teaching from Dr. Andrews. The interesting part of the transaction is that no compensation was asked for by the A’s. It makes me wonder how much Beane thinks of Peterson. The Oakland organization is focused on processes or systems. Is it more the system or Peterson? This is assuming that Beane and Peterson did not have a gentlemen's agreement allowing him to walk if a New York team called. Either way, comparing the Mets and A’s ability to keep their pitchers healthy over the next few years will be a topic for discussion.
• Frank Thomas, DH/1B, Other Sox – exercised his $6 million option. Good for Frank, Other Sox fans and ownership.
• Travis Lee, 1B, Tampa – club declined to exercise one-year $2.5 million option. Lee is an average first baseman. Many other similar players will be out on the market after all of the non-tenders. Lee and Lee types should command between 750K to $1.5 million for one year if last season is any indication. The Rays made the right choice.
• Paul Quantrill, RHP, Dodgers - player voided his final year worth $3.1 million and is a free agent. Quantrill has been one of the most effective set-up men since coming over from the Jays a couple of years ago. Assuming that Quantrill will try to play back-to-back low ERA seasons into a multi-year deal similar to Mike Remlinger, this is a very risky move; it is a very volatile market. A mult-year deal is possible but buyer beware. In Quantrill’s two highly successful seasons in L.A., his K/IN is slightly over a half which is not good for a reliever who is expected to get out of someone else’s jams. Quantrill’s K/BB and HR rates are good, but he will be 35 and has thrown a ton of innings out of the pen over the last four year totaling 319.
• Estaben Loaiza, RHP, Other Sox – club exercised option at $4 million. It is amazing what a slight change of grip to a baseball can do to for a man’s career. Nice job by Loaiza for learning the cutter and the Sox staff for teaching it. The Sox are rewarded for taking a risk on Loaiza last season. Loaiza’s signing last season was a smart low risk – high reward deal. Sometimes they work out and sometimes (Jeff Suppan) they do not.
• Russ Ortiz, RHP, Atlanta – club exercised option at $5.7 million. Ortiz is a typical number three starter on a playoff team. He is probably worth the one-year option.
• Sammy Sosa, RF, Cubs – player exercised option at $17 million. Good for Sammy. Good for Cubs fans. Good for baseball. Okay for the Tribune Company, but who really cares about them.
• Tony Pena and Allard Baird received two year contract extensions from the Royals. What a big difference one lucky year makes. Rob Neyer does a very nice job evaluating the Royals for espn.com.
• Jason Bere, RHP, Cleveland – signed a minor league deal. If healthy, which is a big IF, Bere can be the innings eater the Indians are looking for with their young starters. A nice low risk acquisition for a rebuilding club that fits a need.
• Fernando Vina, 2B, St. Louie – club declined option for $8 million. Vina's performance has suffered and in a changing market place not even Jackie Childs could agrue that Vina is worth $8 million. The Cards have Bo Hart (the Hitman’s other brother?) a cheaper double play partner for Renteria. The decision was an easy one for Jocketty. Vina will find a job, perhaps in Boston, for around a couple million in 2004.
• The Pirates are cutting ticket prices by 30 percent. PNC Park is the best place to watch a ballgame. It is not only my opinion but the folks over at espn.com agree after surveying all 30 MLB park. So why are they cutting ticket prices to attract customers? Because winning teams bring in the fans and revenue not new parks over the long haul. The notion that an owner needs a new publicly financed park to increase revenue to increase payroll to be competitive is a load of crap. Are you hearing me Miami?
• Edgar Martinez, DH, Seattle – signed a $3 million + incentives one-year deal. Like Sammy and Chicago, Edgar belongs in Seattle. Unlike the Sammy transaction, this deal works for everyone even the Mariners owners.
• David “insert insult” Wells, LHP, MFY – club decline $6 million option. Wells could be resigned and I would bet on it. The Wagner deal (Hidalgo should not need to go too) should pave the way for Andy P. to pitch at home in Houston. The MFY will need an eighth starter and Wells should come cheap for the MFY. He loves them. The MFY also declined options on White and Heredia and indicate they would like to re-sign both.
Tuesday, November 04, 2003
Random thoughts on the Broncos:
• Mike S. is an offensive genius after winning back-to-back SBowls? Yeah right. The game plan: first and second down hand off to Davis, if third down is necessary, let our HOF QB make a play.
• Jake “the snake” Plummer is your number one guy.
• Freaking stupid horse.
• Orange Crush was a good soda.
• 50,000+ were Phishin’ for answers a mile high in the parking lot after last night’s game.
• Shannon Sharpie, the Minute Men were not needed to beat your team in your stadium last night.
• Sharpie, your brother was better.
• I hate the Broncos.
• I hate the Cowboys too.
• Mike S. is an offensive genius after winning back-to-back SBowls? Yeah right. The game plan: first and second down hand off to Davis, if third down is necessary, let our HOF QB make a play.
• Jake “the snake” Plummer is your number one guy.
• Freaking stupid horse.
• Orange Crush was a good soda.
• 50,000+ were Phishin’ for answers a mile high in the parking lot after last night’s game.
• Shannon Sharpie, the Minute Men were not needed to beat your team in your stadium last night.
• Sharpie, your brother was better.
• I hate the Broncos.
• I hate the Cowboys too.
Sunday, November 02, 2003
MANNY TRADE RUMORS
Another log has been put on the Hot Stove.
I have been out of the loop since the conclusion of Manny-waiver-gate on Friday. I spent the weekend spurring economic growth in the restaurant and pub industry of the northeastern hub of Red Sox Nation - Portland, Maine. As my friend Geoff said, “If you didn’t, the terrorists won.” The following is my uninformed take on the situation.
Manny was put up for grabs for a couple of reasons. Of course, the Sox wanted to rid themselves of his contract. Those funds can be allocated more effectively. But I also feel it was a signal to not only Manny but the entire team and RSN that no one is untouchable.
Now on to the future or rumors involving Manny, as I said, I have no basis for what I am about to write. I want to make that clear which is okay because I am not a real journalist. (I will be throwing around the word value often here and in future posts. In baseball transaction context for EGG, value is defined as a player’s return on investment (ROI) or projected run production + prevention over the length of the contract divided by the dollar value of the contract.) First off, I do not want to trade Manny because the Sox will not get near his value in return. Plus, I feel that not being claimed will only fuel Manny’s best season in 2004. If he wants out, he needs to prove to the baseball world that he is worth his contract.
With that being said, I have two unlikely trade possibilities:
A) Manny to Baltimore for whomever in March – the scenario: Angelos needs to bring in fans, ticket sales are at an all-time low, since the O’s have lost out on Vlad, Tejada, Matsui, etc. Buddy Boy and company have decided to move the Expos to anywhere other than the D.C. area limiting the risk of future revenue loss for Angelos allowing him to take on the liability known as Manny’s contract.
B) Manny to L.A., Griffey and a young player (Larson, Jimenez,?) to Boston, Kevin Brown to Cincy – the scenario: Carl Linder wants Griffey out of town. The PR, the cluster f#$% in the OF/1B and Junior’s contract is killing his team. Linder, the cheap SOB, calls around and no takers for Griffey just like Manny – their contracts project a negative value in this market. Theo suggests a three-way deal.
Shawn Green’s shoulder is not healing well. The Dodgers may get shutout each and every lovely evening in the L.A. hills. McCourt is desperate. He does not want this to be his first impression with Dodger fans. McCourt is willing to take on a contract for a big bat if they can shed a contract of their own. Griffey injury history is too risky. Manny is his guy. The three-way (enter sophomoric chuckle) works for all parties.
The pitching challenged Reds get the often injured Brown. He carries similar risk as Griffey and more cash up front, but less length and fills a need. Manny’s bat does the job in L.A. The Sox hand Griffey over to Jim Rowe and head to church praying that DHing and playing left field will keep Junior off the DL. Jimenez or Larson fight for the vacant infield spot at a low cost. Most importantly, the Sox rid themselves of Mannyisms and his contract allowing them to reallocate roughly $30 million over the next five years.
Another log has been put on the Hot Stove.
I have been out of the loop since the conclusion of Manny-waiver-gate on Friday. I spent the weekend spurring economic growth in the restaurant and pub industry of the northeastern hub of Red Sox Nation - Portland, Maine. As my friend Geoff said, “If you didn’t, the terrorists won.” The following is my uninformed take on the situation.
Manny was put up for grabs for a couple of reasons. Of course, the Sox wanted to rid themselves of his contract. Those funds can be allocated more effectively. But I also feel it was a signal to not only Manny but the entire team and RSN that no one is untouchable.
Now on to the future or rumors involving Manny, as I said, I have no basis for what I am about to write. I want to make that clear which is okay because I am not a real journalist. (I will be throwing around the word value often here and in future posts. In baseball transaction context for EGG, value is defined as a player’s return on investment (ROI) or projected run production + prevention over the length of the contract divided by the dollar value of the contract.) First off, I do not want to trade Manny because the Sox will not get near his value in return. Plus, I feel that not being claimed will only fuel Manny’s best season in 2004. If he wants out, he needs to prove to the baseball world that he is worth his contract.
With that being said, I have two unlikely trade possibilities:
A) Manny to Baltimore for whomever in March – the scenario: Angelos needs to bring in fans, ticket sales are at an all-time low, since the O’s have lost out on Vlad, Tejada, Matsui, etc. Buddy Boy and company have decided to move the Expos to anywhere other than the D.C. area limiting the risk of future revenue loss for Angelos allowing him to take on the liability known as Manny’s contract.
B) Manny to L.A., Griffey and a young player (Larson, Jimenez,?) to Boston, Kevin Brown to Cincy – the scenario: Carl Linder wants Griffey out of town. The PR, the cluster f#$% in the OF/1B and Junior’s contract is killing his team. Linder, the cheap SOB, calls around and no takers for Griffey just like Manny – their contracts project a negative value in this market. Theo suggests a three-way deal.
Shawn Green’s shoulder is not healing well. The Dodgers may get shutout each and every lovely evening in the L.A. hills. McCourt is desperate. He does not want this to be his first impression with Dodger fans. McCourt is willing to take on a contract for a big bat if they can shed a contract of their own. Griffey injury history is too risky. Manny is his guy. The three-way (enter sophomoric chuckle) works for all parties.
The pitching challenged Reds get the often injured Brown. He carries similar risk as Griffey and more cash up front, but less length and fills a need. Manny’s bat does the job in L.A. The Sox hand Griffey over to Jim Rowe and head to church praying that DHing and playing left field will keep Junior off the DL. Jimenez or Larson fight for the vacant infield spot at a low cost. Most importantly, the Sox rid themselves of Mannyisms and his contract allowing them to reallocate roughly $30 million over the next five years.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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