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Sunday, November 02, 2003

MANNY TRADE RUMORS
Another log has been put on the Hot Stove.

I have been out of the loop since the conclusion of Manny-waiver-gate on Friday. I spent the weekend spurring economic growth in the restaurant and pub industry of the northeastern hub of Red Sox Nation - Portland, Maine. As my friend Geoff said, “If you didn’t, the terrorists won.” The following is my uninformed take on the situation.

Manny was put up for grabs for a couple of reasons. Of course, the Sox wanted to rid themselves of his contract. Those funds can be allocated more effectively. But I also feel it was a signal to not only Manny but the entire team and RSN that no one is untouchable.

Now on to the future or rumors involving Manny, as I said, I have no basis for what I am about to write. I want to make that clear which is okay because I am not a real journalist. (I will be throwing around the word value often here and in future posts. In baseball transaction context for EGG, value is defined as a player’s return on investment (ROI) or projected run production + prevention over the length of the contract divided by the dollar value of the contract.) First off, I do not want to trade Manny because the Sox will not get near his value in return. Plus, I feel that not being claimed will only fuel Manny’s best season in 2004. If he wants out, he needs to prove to the baseball world that he is worth his contract.

With that being said, I have two unlikely trade possibilities:

A) Manny to Baltimore for whomever in March – the scenario: Angelos needs to bring in fans, ticket sales are at an all-time low, since the O’s have lost out on Vlad, Tejada, Matsui, etc. Buddy Boy and company have decided to move the Expos to anywhere other than the D.C. area limiting the risk of future revenue loss for Angelos allowing him to take on the liability known as Manny’s contract.

B) Manny to L.A., Griffey and a young player (Larson, Jimenez,?) to Boston, Kevin Brown to Cincy – the scenario: Carl Linder wants Griffey out of town. The PR, the cluster f#$% in the OF/1B and Junior’s contract is killing his team. Linder, the cheap SOB, calls around and no takers for Griffey just like Manny – their contracts project a negative value in this market. Theo suggests a three-way deal.

Shawn Green’s shoulder is not healing well. The Dodgers may get shutout each and every lovely evening in the L.A. hills. McCourt is desperate. He does not want this to be his first impression with Dodger fans. McCourt is willing to take on a contract for a big bat if they can shed a contract of their own. Griffey injury history is too risky. Manny is his guy. The three-way (enter sophomoric chuckle) works for all parties.

The pitching challenged Reds get the often injured Brown. He carries similar risk as Griffey and more cash up front, but less length and fills a need. Manny’s bat does the job in L.A. The Sox hand Griffey over to Jim Rowe and head to church praying that DHing and playing left field will keep Junior off the DL. Jimenez or Larson fight for the vacant infield spot at a low cost. Most importantly, the Sox rid themselves of Mannyisms and his contract allowing them to reallocate roughly $30 million over the next five years.

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