Monday, January 04, 2010
Other than 2007, Lowell has been very consistent with the bat during his tenure with the Sox. He has averaged a half of base per plate appearance [Total Bases + BB] / Plate Appearance. Given his age and health issues, it is realistic to forecast a decrease in production next year. Excluding Beltre’s last campaign in Seattle, he has nearly matched Lowell’s half of base per PA. If we agree with their defensive reps and the recent offensive outliers, Beltre would seem to project as the more productive third baseman. But the upgrade is not worth $10 million.
Even though I have never been a huge supporter of Mike Lowell, it does not make sense to pay $10 million for only a defensive upgrade at the hot corner. Thankfully, it is not a long-term deal according to the early reports. The Red Sox can easily overcome / write-off one year mistakes.