El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

PRE-LONG WEEKEND START OF THE SUMMER TRIPLE PLAY

* After winning seven in a row at home, the Sox are in a great spot as they head out West. Olde Towne Team is exceeding my expectations. Hopefully, it will continue on the left coast.

* In an article yesterday, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus wrote:
PECOTA thinks that he’s essentially Julio Lugo’s equal at this point, even after accounting for his slightly inferior defense.
Food for thought.

* Has anyone seen Daniel Bard pitch? Is he throwing a breaking ball or just bringing his mid-to-high 90’s free and easy heat?

SOX DO NOT NEED A NEW FENWAY TO COMPETE WITH THE MFY

Over at Surviving Grady, Red, Denton and commentors are having a debate about the future of Fenway Park. Here is my reply to Red…

From a speculative financial perspective, after the various Fenway construction projects and asset acquisitions, a new park is not in the cards anytime soon. First, the Sox would not realize a positive ROI on the renovations to Fenway. Unless the new park would be publicly financed or out in the ‘burbs – both not likely – it is going to cost at least a billion dollars. After purchasing the Sox and half of Rousch racing, Henry/Werner has to some debt on the books, and in this credit market, they might not be able to secure the financing. Bringing in a new partner (a cable/media company makes some sense – see below) could raise enough capital to make a deal feasible over the next decade, but that type of move is also unlikely for a number of reasons.

As far as money to lure talent away from NY, the Sox should be fine. NESN is the cash cow - not Fenway. More wins equal more eyeballs and higher ad rates. All of the non-Sox game related programming has a ton of room to grow. Plus, I believe that NESN is due to renegotiate monthly subscriber fees with cable/satellite companies. This could be a significant payday. But the most important factor in competing with NY for talent is minor league development. If the system continues to churn out prospects, specifically pitchers, the Sox can compete with NY for the best talent. They will have prospects to either trade or play, which the later frees up cash to attract FA talent. Other than pitchers, one of the NY teams will probably not be competing with the Sox for top position player FAs in the same offseason. Hence, the Sox should almost always be able to offer an everyday player the most money ,as they stand to gain the most financially.

Red, don’t worry about the Sox not being able to buy another Manny or trade for a Beckett. Worry about droppin’ a few pounds;) It’s better for the ticker. I say it because I care, man.

JON LESTER NO-HITTER

As regular readers know, I’m no story teller. Others have done a much better job of describing the wonderful comeback that is Jon Lester’s last three years. And which hit a new high by no-hitting the Royals.

As with most no-hitters, the pitcher is good, lucky and has a favorable matchup. The Royals are nearly as allergic to going deep in counts and earning a walk, as I am to tree pollen. A lineup lacking patience minimizes Lester’s weakness – control and command. But Lester’s comments after the historic night are encouraging.

"When I walked the leadoff guy," Lester said, "I had to step back and tell myself I don't have to be too fine. Let them hit the ball, let them put it in play. Let the guys behind me make the plays."

Now that Lester appears to be fully recovered, understands his issue and likely gained confidence from this great game, he could be in line for more consistent productive outings. His repertoire and stuff is similar to Andy Pettitte’s, albeit a notch below. Lester can be a solid #2 or good #3 starter for the Sox for a long time. And one other thing, I want to see Senator Kennedy kick cancer’s ass like Jon Lester.

OVER / UNDER ON THE NUMBER OF TIMES HEIDI WATNEY GETS ASKED OUT DURING A CHAT SESSION

Assuming that the chat is only an hour, the line is at 27. Of course, they all won't be published. But I'm guessing that sometime around the 40 minute mark, she'll drop something about a husband or boyfriend.

DO YOU REMEMBER THE TIME

...when Paul Pierce fell to the Celtics

...when Red and the C's owned the NBA



...when Celtics Pride was strong



The C's are back and we are going to party like it is 1986! 80's nights for eight straight days all across New England!

HAPPY BDAY TO THIS BLOG'S NAMESAKE RICH GARCES

And a hat tip to Nick Cafardo, Globe's most underrated journalist, for the reminder.

EVERYTHING’S GONNA BE ALRIGHT

Winning only four out of ten is not good, and certainly not in the fashion the Sox did by giving up leads late. But they are on the path expected given the tough May schedule. Coming back to the Fens tonight for seven should have the Local Nine at a minimum of eight wins when leaving for the left coast. The Sox should be able to take a total of three in Seattle and Oakland, which would set them up pretty nicely in June when the schedule is favorable. In June, the Sox play 15 out of 28 at home. On the road, the Olde Towne Team faces one credible club with a winning record – the Phillies. "Everything’s gonna be alright" come the All-Star Break.

CELTICS TRIPLE PLAY

* Ray Allen should NOT be getting beat by Wally World. He is outscoring the future HOFer in this series 56-41. Jesus Shuttleworth needs a Slump Buster ASAP.

* How about running a high pick-and-roll with Pierce and Garnett or Perkins more often? Worse case scenario has James running threw screens.

* Rondo stop settling for the jumper; take it to the hole. Even though it is already clogged up, driving in will bring defenders opening up a better outside shooter or a lay down pass in the paint. The Cavs are going to continue to gamble on Rondo regardless of how many jumpers he makes. Watching the Cavs leave Rondo reminds me of the days when everyone wanted DJ to beat them. Man, those were good times.

POLLEN SUCKS

No posts until the pollen count goes down. I think Burlington is the only part of New England that hasn't gotten a day of rain in the past week, which reduces the amount of pollen. I've been feeling like crap for a week now.

RED SOX TRIPLE PLAY

* If Big Papi is going to require maintenance days off for his knee, then Terry Francona should schedule it when the Sox are on the road to minimize Manny’s lack of range in left. In front of the Monster, Manny plays an average to above-average left field but in any other Park, he can be exposed. Inserting Jacoby Ellsbury in left, Manny DHing with Ortiz getting a day off in larger left fields minimizes the overall production drop off of having one of the best hitters in the world picking splinters out of his rump.

* Craig Hansen has his stuff back. We saw glimpses of his plus slider and good velocity on the fastball. But Hansen also showed varied release points. It seemed like he was opening up his lead shoulder too early at times – a la DLowe - causing the pitch to wildly dive down-and-away to righties. Hansen needs to have consistent mechanics to command his plus stuff. When or if that happens he will be a nasty setup man for Paps; the same goes for Manny Delcaremen. Hansen’s slider is a swing-and-miss pitch even to southpaws.

* During or right after graduating from college, we used to play this game where we would flip through the TV channels and if we found a female that we would not sleep with, then we would have to finish our beers. Our theory was 90% of the women on TV at all times were attractive - a.k.a. we would not think twice about heading home with them, 5% were only funny and the other five are Tina Cervasio. Cervasio’s replacement - Heidi Watney - is in the majority of females on T.V. Yeah, I like looking at attractive women - guilty.