Friday, February 03, 2012
SUPER BOWL PREVIEW
The normal and simple Patriots defensive strategy is to take out the opponents top weapon, but that Giant is not so obvious. The Giants have various threats playing at relatively comparable levels. Scheme is not going to have the impact it would against San Francisco. Hence, we are going to see the Patriots all too familiar bend but do not break defense - defending against big plays.
On the flip side, the Giants D-Line can consistently get pressure on Tom Brady thereby dropping seven giving them the best shot at slowing down the strength of the Patriots. We are still going to witness Brady dropping back, but not as much as many are expecting. New York/Jersey gave up an average of 4.5 yards per carry over the season. The Pats are going to exploit this weakness. Effectively running the ball will open up play-action and big play opportunities.
New England does not want to get into a shoot out with NY/J and won’t. Prediction: Patriots 23 – Giants – 21. The Pats hold on to their first half lead for a victory…and bet the under.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Yawkey Way Is Home To A Top Front Office?
This Minor Details podcast with Alex Speier and KLaw got me thinking that the Red Sox are quick to implement winning baseball strategies from other teams. First, it was OBP from Oakland, and then it was defense from their rivals in Tampa. Now, it seems the Sox are copying the Rangers by converting relievers to starters.
The Sox still have interest in Andrew Bailey, according to Buster Olney, even after acquiring Mark Melancon. The acquisition of another back end reliever would likely push Daniel Bard and/or Alfredo Acceves to the rotation. But the Theo Epstein and Ben Cherrington era has not discovered a winning undervalued baseball skill or strategy. (The jury is somewhat still out on paying above slot in the latter rounds of the draft.) The Sox front office has not been ahead of the curve and it could be a reason the Olde Towne Team has only had a better record than the Yankees twice during Epstein-Cherrington regime. Better innovation would benefit Yawkey Way.
By-the-way, WTF is going on with the Red Sox SIGNIFICANT compensation from the Cubs. It is unlikely to be SIGNIFICANT now since both teams have made deals. The Red Sox should have never let Epstein leave without having compensation in place. Larry Lucchino got played.
This Minor Details podcast with Alex Speier and KLaw got me thinking that the Red Sox are quick to implement winning baseball strategies from other teams. First, it was OBP from Oakland, and then it was defense from their rivals in Tampa. Now, it seems the Sox are copying the Rangers by converting relievers to starters.
The Sox still have interest in Andrew Bailey, according to Buster Olney, even after acquiring Mark Melancon. The acquisition of another back end reliever would likely push Daniel Bard and/or Alfredo Acceves to the rotation. But the Theo Epstein and Ben Cherrington era has not discovered a winning undervalued baseball skill or strategy. (The jury is somewhat still out on paying above slot in the latter rounds of the draft.) The Sox front office has not been ahead of the curve and it could be a reason the Olde Towne Team has only had a better record than the Yankees twice during Epstein-Cherrington regime. Better innovation would benefit Yawkey Way.
By-the-way, WTF is going on with the Red Sox SIGNIFICANT compensation from the Cubs. It is unlikely to be SIGNIFICANT now since both teams have made deals. The Red Sox should have never let Epstein leave without having compensation in place. Larry Lucchino got played.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
IT FEELS LIKE 2003
As side from a few, they Red Sox were terrible in Sept. If they were healthy or had a better farm system, they probably would have just been bad and gotten into the playoffs. Teams go into slumps. This one got out of hand primarily because Buchholz and Youkilis were out. But Sept is not the issue, it is the year long suck-a-tude of Crawford and Lackey.
Crawford's forecast to actual performance had to have a much bigger variance than anyone. Last year, he was a seven win player this year .4.
Lackey has been a bust. It was expected he would suck in the later two-thirds of his contract but not at the start. The Red Sox not having an alternative is one part bad luck, ineffective pre-hab or injury prevention and poor minor league pitching development.
Regardless, the Red Sox still have a strong core so an overhaul would be a shock. They need a true top of the rotation starter and a closer in 2012. This kind of sounds like 2003, no?
As side from a few, they Red Sox were terrible in Sept. If they were healthy or had a better farm system, they probably would have just been bad and gotten into the playoffs. Teams go into slumps. This one got out of hand primarily because Buchholz and Youkilis were out. But Sept is not the issue, it is the year long suck-a-tude of Crawford and Lackey.
Crawford's forecast to actual performance had to have a much bigger variance than anyone. Last year, he was a seven win player this year .4.
Lackey has been a bust. It was expected he would suck in the later two-thirds of his contract but not at the start. The Red Sox not having an alternative is one part bad luck, ineffective pre-hab or injury prevention and poor minor league pitching development.Regardless, the Red Sox still have a strong core so an overhaul would be a shock. They need a true top of the rotation starter and a closer in 2012. This kind of sounds like 2003, no?
Sunday, September 25, 2011
THE STARTING PITCHING HAS SUCKED
The Red Sox problem is the ineptitude of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield (yeah, I’m calling out the second living Red Sox Saint). Both have been awful. Period.
The Sox had sufficient pitching depth and acquiring another arm in-season would seem to be imprudent, as Brian MacPherson wrote for the Projo.com. It appears that the Sox took all rationale steps in the off season to protect themselves against this very situation at the major league level. The issue that McPherson does not get into enough and probably warrants its own article is the lack of ready capable arms in the minors.
Relative to other development systems, the Red Sox could be doing just fine developing quality starters. But when you have a near perfect storm of injuries and ineffectiveness to spots 3-10 in the rotation, then everything needs to be analyzed including minor league development pipeline.
The Red Sox problem is the ineptitude of John Lackey and Tim Wakefield (yeah, I’m calling out the second living Red Sox Saint). Both have been awful. Period.
The Sox had sufficient pitching depth and acquiring another arm in-season would seem to be imprudent, as Brian MacPherson wrote for the Projo.com. It appears that the Sox took all rationale steps in the off season to protect themselves against this very situation at the major league level. The issue that McPherson does not get into enough and probably warrants its own article is the lack of ready capable arms in the minors.
Relative to other development systems, the Red Sox could be doing just fine developing quality starters. But when you have a near perfect storm of injuries and ineffectiveness to spots 3-10 in the rotation, then everything needs to be analyzed including minor league development pipeline.
Monday, August 22, 2011
DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE!
This four game series in Texas is not BIG. It is a possible October preview in name only. First off, the most obvious, the Red Sox will not be playing four in a row away from friendly Fenway in the playoffs. Second, Jon Lester should be on the bump in second season for the Sox. Third, Terry Francona is going to write Ortiz, Youkilis, and Ellsbury on his lineup card every night in October and that won’t happen over these next four games in Dallas. If the Sox and Rangers face off in the postseason, Texas will be facing a better club than the one they will see in the next four contests.
Other than making sure the team is healthy and ready for October baseball, the Sox need to make a decision on the corners in the outfield, as it is seemingly a result that is actionable (pitchers are unlikely to make it through waivers this August). Is Josh Reddick’s fifteen minutes of being an above average major league outfielder up? Aside from his home run yesterday, Carl Crawford’s timing at the plate appears to be horrid. Can he get on track in time for the playoffs? If the answer is no to either question, then Yawkey Way has to explore other options.
Internally, we know that Run DMcD is not the answer, although he can play the role of Bobby Keilty and Gabe Kapler. Unless J.D. Drew has found the Hot Tub Time Machine or had a procedure done in the Dominican, he probably is not the going to keep the line moving in October. Unlike in 2007, the organization does not have an Ellsbury to take time from Coco Crisp. Ryan Kalish could have been that player, but he must have gotten cursed like Jed Lowrie during that stop at Merlotte's. The Sox will need to trade for an outfielder. Get to work, Theo.
This four game series in Texas is not BIG. It is a possible October preview in name only. First off, the most obvious, the Red Sox will not be playing four in a row away from friendly Fenway in the playoffs. Second, Jon Lester should be on the bump in second season for the Sox. Third, Terry Francona is going to write Ortiz, Youkilis, and Ellsbury on his lineup card every night in October and that won’t happen over these next four games in Dallas. If the Sox and Rangers face off in the postseason, Texas will be facing a better club than the one they will see in the next four contests.
Other than making sure the team is healthy and ready for October baseball, the Sox need to make a decision on the corners in the outfield, as it is seemingly a result that is actionable (pitchers are unlikely to make it through waivers this August). Is Josh Reddick’s fifteen minutes of being an above average major league outfielder up? Aside from his home run yesterday, Carl Crawford’s timing at the plate appears to be horrid. Can he get on track in time for the playoffs? If the answer is no to either question, then Yawkey Way has to explore other options.
Internally, we know that Run DMcD is not the answer, although he can play the role of Bobby Keilty and Gabe Kapler. Unless J.D. Drew has found the Hot Tub Time Machine or had a procedure done in the Dominican, he probably is not the going to keep the line moving in October. Unlike in 2007, the organization does not have an Ellsbury to take time from Coco Crisp. Ryan Kalish could have been that player, but he must have gotten cursed like Jed Lowrie during that stop at Merlotte's. The Sox will need to trade for an outfielder. Get to work, Theo.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Are You Ready For Some...October Baseball?!
Football is all the rage right now, but the MLB playoffs are fast approaching. Since it is likely that the Red Sox will be playing in October (knock on wood), the most important thing is to keep everyone healthy and fresh for the postseason. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Erik Bedard should not be pushed. Nothing is more important than having the top three starters ready to rock in the second season.
The return of Jed Lowrie and the acquisition of Mike Aviles allow Terry Francona the flexibility to give guys a day off or two in the dirty dog days of August before rosters expand. The Sox are being prudent by taking a conservative approach to player health whether it is David Ortiz, Marco Scutaro, etc. It is more important to have the thick lineup ready for October than ending up on top of the A.L. East at the end of the regular season.
The last objective should be getting Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon ready to pitch more than one inning in October. Three innings from the shutdown pen pair would allow Francona to matchup the rest of the relievers, if necessary, in the middle innings. We do not want Matt Albers getting the ball in the seventh up a run with the heart of the order ready to take their hacks off the journey man. With rosters expanded, Francona should have enough options to start transitioning Bard and Pap up to one plus innings with additional rest between appearances in the last week or two in September.
So if the Sox continue to play the B team, it is for the best. "Relax" and get ready for the October "laser show" and have some "muddy chicken" for the next six weeks. It is all about getting ready for the playoffs.
Football is all the rage right now, but the MLB playoffs are fast approaching. Since it is likely that the Red Sox will be playing in October (knock on wood), the most important thing is to keep everyone healthy and fresh for the postseason. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Erik Bedard should not be pushed. Nothing is more important than having the top three starters ready to rock in the second season.
The return of Jed Lowrie and the acquisition of Mike Aviles allow Terry Francona the flexibility to give guys a day off or two in the dirty dog days of August before rosters expand. The Sox are being prudent by taking a conservative approach to player health whether it is David Ortiz, Marco Scutaro, etc. It is more important to have the thick lineup ready for October than ending up on top of the A.L. East at the end of the regular season.
The last objective should be getting Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon ready to pitch more than one inning in October. Three innings from the shutdown pen pair would allow Francona to matchup the rest of the relievers, if necessary, in the middle innings. We do not want Matt Albers getting the ball in the seventh up a run with the heart of the order ready to take their hacks off the journey man. With rosters expanded, Francona should have enough options to start transitioning Bard and Pap up to one plus innings with additional rest between appearances in the last week or two in September.
So if the Sox continue to play the B team, it is for the best. "Relax" and get ready for the October "laser show" and have some "muddy chicken" for the next six weeks. It is all about getting ready for the playoffs.
Labels: lase show, mlb playoffs, muddy chicken, Red Sox
Thank you - Red Sox!
This site is not associated with the Boston Red Sox, Major League Baseball nor Major League Players Assoication
© 2003-2010 Thomas J. Fratamico, III
All Rights Reserved
