Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Rudy Giuliani’s strategy to win the larger states as a road to the Republican nomination makes a lot of sense, but he will have trouble holding Bush states and/or turn Kerry‘s in a general election. Even if I give him Ohio, which is generous after Strickland won around 60% of the vote for Gov, I can not see him holding Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa.
It is my understanding that Giuliani’s campaign contends that he will compete in Jersey, PA, Connecticut, but that is unlikely as all of those states were big Democratic wins in 2006. The Democratic party took back the Congress by picking off moderate Republicans in the Northeast. And if things got tight, the Dem nominee could always put Ed Rendell on the ticket and that probably gives them both PA and NJ.
The GOP’s best shot is turning Michigan. A jobs and economy message would play well here and in Ohio. The same tune will work in both states and Mitt Romney is the man for that task. His business resume will give a jobs/economy plan more weight. Romney’s family history will also assist in Michigan. Unless Mike Huckabee can raise millions fast, Romney is the GOP’s best shot at holding serve.
Back to baseball in the next post.