El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

I AM MOVING UP THE FREE RED SOX TICKET CONTEST DEADLINE TO TUESDAY.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

Unless some big news hits, I won't be posting over the next couple of weeks. In the new year, I'll be assessing the moves of the Sox and their major competitors - Oakland, Seattle, Toronto, and MFY. I will also post on the Royals because I like the moves Allard Baird has made and they get very little national press. BTW, the K.C. Star has very underrated baseball coverage. To date, the Royals are the team to beat in the AL Central.

PORKY POKEY REESE IS COMING TO TOWN

The two-time National League Gold Glove award winner is expected to be in Boston for a physical examination Monday after tentatively agreeing to a one-year deal believed to be in the $800,000-$1 million range.

A Bellhorn-Reese platoon at second is not so bad for a less than $1.5 million. Reese plays when Lowe, "ground out to second all night", and Kim are on the mound. Bellhorn mans the position when infield defense is not as critical or when strikeout and/or flyball pitchers Pedro, Schilling and Wake take the ball.

The timing is somewhat surprising. Reese does not have teams knocking down his door. The Sox could have waited until tomorrow. They would have known if a better solution for second base was non-tendered.

Placido Polanco could likely be available. He is a better solution than Reese and a safer investment than Bellhorn. Philly has invested big money in David Bell at third, Rollins is set at short and Tomas Perez is the utility infielder leaving the heralded and cheap, Chase Utley or Polanco at second. Ed Wade will be tempted to go the inexpensive route with Kevin Millwood accepting arbitration putting Philly over budget. Polanco may be too expensive for the Sox as well. He could be looking for more than his 2004 salary - $2.85 million.

IS FOULKE THE RED SOX CLOSER?

"We see you as a real weapon in helping us win games," Epstein said. "We're going to try to pitch you as much as possible in as many important innings as possible and have you impact as many games as possible."

This is the same strategy implemented at the start of 2003.

Saturday afternoon, February 8, 2003
Theo Epstein:

The "closer by committee" concept (if we must call it that) has more to do with usage than it does with personnel. We still want a truly dominant reliever (or two, or three, or four). We just won't hold him back for the ninth inning so he can chalk up a save. The goal is to put the best pitcher in the game to get the most critical outs, period.

I don't really like "closer by committee." Anybody have a better name?

The Sox now have "truly dominant reliever." After the 2004 All-Star break, every mainstream N.E. columnist will pull a 180 on the topic. Here is hoping they have the integrity to apologize not only to Theo but to Bill James as well.

FOR THE LAST TIME UNTIL IT IS OFFICIAL

The Sox have told Rodriguez, his agent, and the union that without the $28 million reduction, Rodriguez's contract was untenable. "Theo [Epstein] told them that given the total resources he had, he couldn't put a competitive product on the field if he committed too high a percentage to one player, and the Red Sox would be in the same position as the Rangers are," one management source said last night.

It appears that $15 million is holding up the biggest trade in MLB history and it is making me sick. Even though it is only about 2% of Hicks' personal net worth, it is still a significant amount of money. It is less than that for Henry, Warner and Lucky Larry. There is an estimated 10 million people living in Red Sox Nation (MA, ME, RI, NH). If each person gave up one morning Dunkin' medium coffee to the "A-Rod to Boston Fund," we would have the freaking $15 million. I guess it is more reasonable for everyone to pay double for the java.

The owners' position is reasonable. The MLBPA's is as well. Any union has to make decisions that are best for all of its members not just one. A-Rod has done more than anyone to get this deal done by taking a pay cut. But where is Manny? Manny wants out of Boston although makes no effort to assist in the deal. It is my understanding he would gain financially from playing in Texas receiving a $1 million trade bonus and state tax relief. Moorad played it well in the press, doing a 180, saying how Manny is fine in Boston. The media has played along not pressuring Manny to restructure his deal. Manny has done nothing to get this done. Manny is trying to get a free ride AGAIN on A-Rod's coat tails.

FREE RED SOX TICKETS

I know the IP or server from the 1946, 1967, 1975 and 1986 visitors. If you believe you were one of these, please email me for further instructions on winning two tickets to a Red Sox game at Fenway in April.

I have word and confirmed one of the lucky visitors. The others have until Friday to make a claim or the 1967 visitor wins the two tickets.

Check out Joy of Sox for the lastest on the mega-deal.

I am too emotional to make sense of it all.

I LOVE WALTAH!

...and I may not hate Buddy Boy Selig. It appears Bud may approve the restructuring of A-Rod deal that the MLBPA has rejected.

Rob Manfred, baseball's top labor lawyer, challenged the union's interpretation.

"The basic agreement contains a rule that requires any special covenant to be an actual or potential benefit to the player," Manfred said. "In a situation like the current situation, where there was a restructuring, where the player was getting something and the club was getting something, Gene Orza is not the final arbitrator on whether the restructuring provides an actual or potential benefit to the player. The commissioner currently is considering his legal options in consultation with the two teams."

If so, the MLBPA would likely file a grievance and would decided by Shyam Das. Someone needs to find out this guy's address. We need to know where to send our holiday gifts.

FREE RED SOX TICKETS

I know the IP or server from the 1946, 1967, 1975 and 1986 visitors. If you believe you were one of these, please email me for further instructions on winning two tickets to a Red Sox game at Fenway in April.

SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS WAS COMING

The Sox picked up 29 year-old Mark Bellhorn today for a PTBNL. He is a wonderful fit as a cheap ($495,000) second baseman with plate discipline and pop. After shuffling around in Oaktown, Bellhorn got a regular job and had a break out season in 2002 with the Cubs hitting 258/374/512. After a rough start in 2003, he was shipped off to the Rockies. Dusty Baker has no patience for young players with command of the strike zone like Choi, Hill and Bellhorn. Bellhorn never seemed comfortable in Denver hitting a 236/368/264 in 110 at-bats nor did he gain consistent playing time - chicken or the egg?

The most important and brightest spot of Bellhorn's numbers last season is that his plate discipline did not suffer like his average or power. In 2002, Bellhorn walked in 14% of his plate appearance and saw an average of 4.21 pitches per PA. In 2003, the rate was 16% and the average was 4.21. Bellhorn should continue this trend in 2004.

With a little luck and regular playing time, Bellhorn could put up 260/370/500 numbers for the Sox or he could flop and be the Sox utility player (Bellhorn is known as an average third and second baseman who can play SS and first). Either way Bellhorn would be a valuable addition to the club at a low price; great low risk/money - high reward deal.

The Sox also picked up a couple of soft tossers (Lenny DiNardo and Colter Bean) in the Rule 5 draft. DiNardo will probably battle Malaska and others for the LOOGY spot in the pen making the minimum. Bean may have been taken out of spite from the MFY. He could be moved before April 1st. Check out the links for better information on these players.

HITTING FOR THE CYCLE

*Are the MFY cheating? It sure appears that way. After today's Rule 5 draft or sometime this week, I bet the MFY announce the signings of Shef, Flash, Quantrill, Wells, Cairo, and others. The Braves also have a grievance stemming from the same strategy or cheating. My gut tells me that the Shef deal was always in place and the on again - off again contract thing was bull s$%t. It was an act to lessen the heat from the Braves. More reasons to hate the MFY.
*Mike Cameron signs with the Mets. The deal impacts the Sox in a couple of ways. First, they lose a major player for the overpaid Johnny Damon and his possibly replacement. On to the positive, the A's now move to plan C and the MFY appear to have Bernie or Lofton roaming center next season.
*Miguel Tejada signs with the O's for $72 million over six years. It really doesn't average out to $12 per, it is more like $11 when the back loaded payments are discounted, but $11 per is the average value of Nomar's last offer from the Sox. It would appear that Henry will need to up the ante for Nomar. The question is if Nomar will continue to produce at a higher level than Tejada over the next four seasons. As much as RSN does not want to admit it, it is a big "IF." Plus, Tejada goes to a division rival and could be the start of a tidal way of free agent signings that could include Vlad, Pudge or Javy Lopez and Millwood. The gap between clubs in the AL East is closing. It will be more difficult for the W.C. to come out of the East. The silver lining could be Jerry Hairston being non-tendered by the O's. He could be a cheap second baseman for the Sox. Another positive aspect of the deal is the MFY appear to be looking the other way about Jeter's inability to play SS.
*Tony Graffanino signs with K.C. He won't be part of a Red Sox platoon at second and taking over for Damian Jackson as the Sox utility player.
*JD Drew was traded to Atlanta. The often injured and talented outfielder will not be playing left once Manny is shipped to Texas.
*Toronto signed Miguel Batista to a three years deal. BJ fans should be concerned about a ground ball pitcher playing on turf and does not have a stellar control.
*Toronto traded for Justin Speier giving up Mark Hendrickson. Hendrickson was not necessary after acquiring Batista and Lilly. Speier is a fastball/spilt finger guy with good K and BB rates. He was effective away from Coors. He should give the Jays a good arm coming out of the pen.

WISHFULLY THINKING

Mr. John W. Henry,

Today is my b-day. As my gift, please have the press conference to announce A-Rod acquisition around six when I get home from work. Thank you.

Happy Holidays,

El Guapo's Ghost

He said he would discuss a restructuring of his contract, with a possible extension making it the equivalent of an option year (Rick Hummel, Post-Dispatch).

Unfortunately, the "He” is Matt Morris of the Cards and not A-Rod. Of course, the MLBPA is not as concerned about Morris restructuring his $27 million deal as A-Rod’s historic $252 million contract. The point is that it is not unprecedented for a baseball player to restructure his contract. It is just the size of A-Rod’s deal. A-Rod and Scott Boras, his agent, have done more for MLBPA by setting the market for player salaries than any two in recent history. A-Rod’s deal set the tone in 2000 for all of the mega-contracts including the lavish deals starting pitchers are still receiving to this day. MLBPA should allow A-Rod to redo his deal for all he has and will do for the Union. If they still balk, Henry and A-Rod should have a gentlemen’s agreement that he will opt out of his contract after the 2007 season and renegotiate within certain parameters. This deal has to get done.

HENRY, WHY GO PUBLIC?

"We have made him credible offers, and the reason we're proceeding in a manner as if we're not going to be able to sign Nomar is because his agent has given us every clear indication that there's no common ground," Henry said before a ceremony to inaugurate the club's new training academy in the Dominican Republic. "He seems to believe it's still the winter of 2000." (Hohler, Globe).

Why, Mr. Henry? The Sox did not stop there. They leaked that Garciaparra wanted $68 million over four years last March and that $60 over four was rejected. The Sox latest offer, made this winter $48 million for four years of service, was also turned down by Nomar. By going public, the Sox have crushed their own bargaining position at the trade table in the name of fan/public relations. Henry should have bit his tongue.

By stating the difficultly in negotiations and actual dollar amounts, it is a sign to L.A. and Anaheim that Nomar is unlikely to sign a long-term deal with Boston without venturing into the free agent market after the 2004 season. L.A. and Anaheim can now wait to acquire Nomar for nothing more than a couple of draft picks in 2005. Further, releasing Nomar’s actual salary demand might even eliminate L.A. and Anaheim as potential trading partners this winter. They may not be able to lockup the All-Star and do not want to risk having Nomar for only one season. Henry’s statement hurts the Sox leverage for the sake of public relations. Henry made a big mistake unless the deal for A-Rod is dead and is trying to pressure Nomar to bring his demands down (I doubt it).

The Dodgers and Anaheim should now put Tejada ahead of Nomar on their shortstop shopping list. Tejada is younger, presumably cheaper and will be locked up beyond 2004. Even if one believes Nomar will be more productive than Tejada, the difference of contract offers ($48 and $24) is too great to be ignored. Tejada is the better buy for L.A. and Anaheim.

Our Sox

Todd Walker, John Burkett, Jeff Suppan, Todd Jones, Robert Person and Bill Haselman were not offered arbitration. No surprises. Walker is poor in the field and beside his heroics in the playoffs is not a good hitter. He is average. Walker is not worth $3.45 + million would have received in arbitration. It is sad to see Jeff Suppan go. No wait; it is not. What is sad is that nothing was really gained from giving up Freddy Sanchez. If it were not for the Lyon health issue, almost requiring Theo to make the deal "whole", it would have looked like some of Dan Duquette's work.

Dave McCarty signed a minor league deal.

Malaska claimed off waivers from Tampa. Sour-suck should be non-tendered.

Blue Jays

Signed former Red Sox and nearly every other team too, Bruce Chen, to a minor league deal. Will Chen finally live up to the potential scouts loved when he was a prospect in Hot-lanta? If not, I'll steal a line from Earl Weaver; let's see if he can throw side-arm.

Signed Chi-Hung Chen to a minor league deal like Sargeant Schultz or is it Schlitz, "I know nothing."

Signed Kerry Lightenberg to a two-year $4.5 million contract. Did Lightenberg make out after not having his $1.2 million option picked up by the O's or what. It seems like the Jays paid a bit much for the reliever. On the field, Lightenberg is very tough on RHB and durable coming out of the pen.

A's

Finally, traded T Long and Ramon Hernandez to S.D. for Mark Kotsay. Beside the back injury, my issue with this deal is who is behind the plate. It is much easier to find diamonds in the rough for the pen than at catcher. San Diego appears to be hot after Jacque Jones now that Stewart has signed or sign Kenny Lofton. Jones is much better than Lofton. Jones to S.D. deal should get done and quickly before the MFY jump in on Jones. S.D. also signed Rod Beck for $1.85 million to set-up for Hoffman. This doesn't relate to the Sox but this is a must read.

Mariners

Resigned Hasegawa for two years at $6.3 million. Relief pitchers that do not strike out guys should not be signed to big money. Hasegawa has 371 strike outs in 585 innings or 5.7 per nine. This season, his most productive with an ERA of 1.48, his rate actually dropped to 3.95. It has steadily declined. Not a good trend for any pitcher, let alone one at age 35.

Declined arbitration offers to Mike Cameron, Arthur Rhodes, Armando Benitez, John Marby, Mark McLemore, and Rey Sanchez. The only surprise was Cameron. Even though he would not fit into the M's future, there was little chance Cameron would accept a one-year deal. He is the only legit center fielder on the market. The laws of supply and demand are in his favor. Plus, like Cliff Floyd last season, this is his last chance for a big pay day or a multi-year deal approaching $20 million at 30. If the Mets or any team is hot after Damon, the Sox should seriously consider inking Cameron. His rumored price is about $6-7 million per season for a three to four year deal. Rhodes is still a good pitcher, but not worth his likely award. Same for Benitez but he has tremendous upside due to his good K/BB rate. A big park and low pressure situation like Oakland or Florida would be great for him.

Others

Little Matsui signed with the little new york baseball team while the Big New York team has Big Matsui - fitting. The first step is completed in increasing the bargaining power of Theo in dealing with L.A. and Anaheim. Tejada needs to sign in Seattle.

Castillo resigns to crush any foolish media speculation that he might be bound for Boston. Castillo is overrated and his production will fall sharply.

Robin Ventura resigns with L.A. He might not have been a bad platoon mate at the hot corner with someone. Mueller would move to second.

On those same lines, Joe Randa resigned with the Royals. Randa's last two seasons were consistent and productive placing him in the top third among third basemen. A one-year deal for the 33 year-old is a nice move by Allard Baird.

Jonah Keri of Baseball Prospectus on the state of his Expos.

As a baseball fan, this just hurts. I could analyze this move from a business perspective or illustrate the conflict of interest, but I would rather just think about the good times. Sitting behind home plate watching Javy throw complete game gems. He starts a game at 93+ and ends it the same way. Vlad hitting first on the last day of the season so he could have the maximum number of chances to go 40-40. The crowd going literally nuts, throwing balls onto the field, when he is called out on a check swing. And my favorite, Vlad's walk off homerun off of Curt Schilling. You probably won't believe me but I did call it. I went to the game with my bud, Chico (his link is on the right), I turned to him before Vlad came up and said something like Schilling is going to start him with the heat and Vladie is sending us home happy. Good times. Good times.

I can't seem to catch up with all of the transactions and rumors so I am only going to comment on those that directly affect the Sox for sometime. Wednesday's post will be speak to transactions of the Jays, A's, M's and of course the Sox. Friday's will tackle the MFY with a twist. Tomorrow is a little bit of baseball fiction writing.

HONEY, CAN WE WORK THIS OUT?

Yesterday was the last day for clubs to offer salary arbitration to their free agents. By doing so, the club can continue to negotiate with the player. If not, the player can not resign with until May 1st.

If it were only that simple.

Another part of the process is the potential that the player will accept arbitration from the club. In this case, a neutral party will decide between either the club or the player's salary figure for the upcoming season. In short, players usually get a raise over last year's salary. In a deflating market and shrinking budgets, one would think no player would be offered. But...

The final piece is that if a player is offered arbitration, rejects it, and signs with another team, then the player's former club receives draft pick compensation. The type of pick is dependent upon the player's rating from the Elias Sports Bureau.

It is a complicated process that is probably not necessary.

Now that we have gone over the basics onto commentary on the decisions.

Colon and Gordon were offered by the White Sox. Flash was a no brainer. He, basically (more on this soon), signed with the MFY. Thus, he will reject the White Sox offer of arbitration and the ChicSox will receive draft pick compensation from the MFY. It is unlikely that a young free agent like Colon is going to accept a one-year deal from arbitration. They are looking for multi-year security. Hence, the ChicSox get additional time to sign Colon (his market appears to be soft). If they do not get the fat ass, then they will receive picks. Solid decisions from the folks on the south side of town.

Tejada, Foulke and Rincon were offered by the A's. Billy Beane wants picks for Tejada. Tejada is not going to accept arbitration. In order to sign Foulke, they had to offer. Foulke is deciding between the A's and Sox multi-year contracts. He will not accept arbitration either. Easy decisions for the A's. Rincon is risky. My guess is that he could double his 2003 salary to about $3 million going to arbitration. It seems too costly/risky for the A's to pay a LOOGY that much.

Pettitte, Wells and Gabe White offered by the MFY.

Millwood and Plesac. My sense is that Plesac is close to signing. There is no need to offer Plesac otherwise. The Millwood decision was a surprise and very nice move. The thought was that the acquisition of Milton would eliminate the prospect of him in Philly. Scott Boras had Maddux accept the Braves offer last offseason, but in Millwood's case it is unlikely. Millwood will get the most cash this winter. Next season's potential starter free agent market could be filled with many huge names. Greater supply with steady demand drops the price or salary for Millwood. As Curt Schilling said, "this is not rocket science." If Millwood does accept, then Philly could take a one-year salary hit or trade him. Boston, MFY, Anaheim, ChicSox could all be good trading partners for the Philly.

Pudge will not be back in Miami. The Marlins could not offer arbitration to Pudge so they had to get a deal done by Sunday. It did not happen, but do not fear Marlins fans, Ramon Castro and Mark Redman will be a productive combination.

Arizona declined to offer Miguel Batista. Batista is a valuable pitcher and he would not break the bank with an arbitration award. If Carlos Baerga took Batista's money, D'back fans should big pissed.

Maddux, Sheffield and Lopez not offered by the Braves. The Maddux decision is a no brainer. He would have accepted and been awarded a salary that did not fit into the Braves budget. Not offering Lopez is somewhat of a surprise. Lopez has stated that he wanted to play some first base and DH to prolong his career. Essentially, Lopez wants a multi-year deal in the American League so it seems unlikely that he would accept arbitration. Perhaps the Braves budget (both MLB roster and player development) is so tight that the low risk move was not worth the reward of draft picks. The Braves should have offered Sheffield - see Flash Gordon. This is even more foolish than last season's Millwood deal.

But the stupidest move award goes to the Expos for not offering
Vlad. This is so wrong on so many levels.

The Sox and A-Rod have about a week to get it done. The deal will happen.

Even though, the AFKATBSG lives in LA, he still articulates the emotions of the Boston sports fan better than anyone else.

Seth Stevenson for Slate does a great job commenting Schilling heading over to the Sons of Sam Horn.

Other observations on a snowing, cold, wintry, homebound Sunday:
*I hate when the Pats play at four. I assume they are on at one and it screws up my Sunday plan, then again at four when I miss a few series due to the earlier game running late.
*"BOWLING" was on the ESPN NEWS ticker.
*Can the NFL squeeze anymore commercials into the broadcast and people bitch about baseball games being too long?
*I think a plasma T.V. is necessary to watch a football game played in the snow. Well, that is going to be my justification.
*Willie McGinest is making plays again. Could it be that he is back to his original position?
*As I was writing this, a woman knocked on my door requesting to use my phone. I agreed. It seemed like an emergency. She needed to call her father to help with the whole winter car thing. As she is talking, I realize that her father already left and they spoke earlier on the matter. Then she goes on to check her voice mail. After that I was not going to waste any more brain cells on figuring out why she needed to use my phone. I chalked it up to she is just an idoit. This is the last time I help out a stranger who can walk and talk.

As I mentioned a month or so ago, I wanted to demonstrate my appreciation to my readers. Well, here it is El Guapo's Ghost will be giving away two bleacher tickets to Fenway for a game yet to be determined. The winner will be chosen from the 1946, 1967, 1975 and 1986 visitor. If you believe you are the 1946, 1967, 1975, or 1986 visitor to El Guapo's Ghost, then email me with your IP address and the name of your ISP to determine if you are actually the correct visitor. Further instructions to the chosen visitors will be disseminated via an email reply.

Thanks again to all old and new visitors of El Guapo's Ghost.

Happy Holidays and here's hoping I have an A-Rod Red Sox t-shirt under the tree.

A-ROD HAS TO COME TO BOSTON

And when he does every member of Red Sox Nation needs to send a holiday card to 4 Yawkey Way. There is no reason for the story to be leaked about Henry and A-Rod meeting, unless the deal was going to occur shortly. Since the Cuban Pitch Crisis, the Sox have learned how to use the media. My guess is that the Sox put the story out to prepare the more casual fans for Nomah's departure. The deals will get done. Everything is falling into place.

Hicks has stated that pitching or cash is necessary for A-Rod. Currently, the Sox have offered neither. In the Globe, Sox staff are quoted basically stating that they will not pay Manny to play for someone else. The Sox need to send pitchers with Manny for A-Rod. Attaining pitching for Nomar to send to Texas appears to be the answer.

Baltimore, Seattle, the Mets, L.A. and Anaheim are all in the bidding for Tejada and Little Matsui. It appears that Matsui will sign with the Mets and Tejada has a nice offer from the M's. It is the PERFECT scenario. Since it is likely that Nomar would sign a long-term deal to play in So. Cal, it raises his value for the Dodgers and Anaheim relative to the others. Thus, Theo should be able to play the two L.A. area teams off one another and acquire a very good package in return for the All-Star SS.

It may be starting, the L.A. times is reporting that Odalis Perez is the centerpiece of a Nomar deal with the Dodgers. If Perez moved on to Texas, the Sox would save $6.5 million luxury tax dollars or about Foulke's estimated figure. Anaheim is a better partner with Washburn going to Texas and Eckstein or Kennedy staying in Boston to fill the second base vacancy.

BTW, my gut says that the deals will be announced on Friday in celebration of my b-day.

WHAT A BASEBALL NEWSDAY!

"Major moves would need to be made to acquire Foulke and not pay the luxury tax."

Well, A-Rod for Manny would be considered a "major move." It appears to be more and more likely with each passing day. As we know, the acquisition of A-Rod would likely kill the days of Nomar in Beantown. It would also save about $6.5 million dollars on the luxury tax books less the players aquired for Nomar.

Transaction comments will be done over the weekend and an update of links.

Hopefully, no big news tomorrow, I need a break.

JAVY VAZQUEZ TO THE MF YANKEES

MFY acquired Javy Vazquez for Nick "the stick" Johnson, Juan Rivera and another player.

My first thought was SHIT; couldn't they just sign fat ass Colon. My second thought was what to do with my photo with Javy. SHIT. He seemed like a really nice guy. He tried numerous times to answer and demonstrate the various types of balks to a fan. Javy has more patience than I. I butted in and asked him to demonstrate the different grips on his pitches. It is going to be hard for me to hate him.

The deal is fair. Nick Johnson is sick and cheap. Rivera is a tweener - not good enough for center but can't hit enough to play a corner – but cheap as well. Now, it appears that the Sheffield deal is final. The MFY are waiting to announce the deal next week, in hope that the Braves to do offer Shef arbitration. It seems likely that Lofton will also be inked next week which gives the MFY Lofton flanked by Matsui and Bernie or Shef with the odd man out as the DH. SHIT - maybe Cameron instead of Lofton - SHIT.

DAMON AND NIXON TO NEW YORK?

Newsday is a rumor generating machine – the class gossip queen. This time it directly involves the Sox. The Mets are interested in Trot Nixon and Rock Star, Johnny Damon, which is not a surprise. The Mets outfield is below average and terrible in center. But it would be a very big surprise for Nixon to be dealt. He is as close (can’t hit LHP and not making the minimum) to the prototypical type of Sox player management wants on the club. Nixon is a patient, power hitter that plays good defense, gets nice P.R. and appears to be a positive clubhouse presence. Damon is a different story at the plate and on the books – two very important factors.

Damon is a slap hitter with average power that is due to make $8 and $8.5 million in 2004 and 2005, respectfully. Damon is a valuable asset with the glove, but has a weak arm. He is also good on the bases, although it is a skill that is not highly appreciated by the Sox relative to other clubs. For the Sox, Damon appears to be really overpaid. Other clubs that have money to spend, do not value OBP as much as the Sox, think this is the NFL “where speed kills” and have a desperate need in center find Damon attractive. It looks like just the Mets (okay, maybe Anaheim if they are intent on moving Erstad to first).

It is a no brainer if the Sox are not in contention. (Heilman, Huber would be nice and thinking about Kazmir does weird things to parts of my body.) Fortunately, they are very close. Thus, the Sox would need to acquire an adequate replacement – paging Mike Cameron, please report to Fenway Park immediately. Of course, the issue is signing Cameron to a REASONABLE contract. Unless Huber or Kazmir are part of the deal, Damon should stay in Beantown for 2004. The State of the Sox Address will go into more detail.

Since the A's lost out on Hawkins, they are now all over Foulke again. There is little doubt in my mind that the A's will offer Foulke arbitration because they know he will reject it. He has multi-year deals worth far more than a one-year arbitration award. The ancillary benefit for the A's is that they can still try to sign the All-Star. The big benefit is the additional draft choice(s) the A's would receive if another team signed Foulke. Unless the Sox make some major moves, it does not appear that they could sign Foulke and remain under the luxury cap.

My TOTAL is incorrect from my last post. Darren over at Sox Therapy called me on it and Doug Pappas confirmed my error. Option years are considered one-year deals. Hence, Pedro's luxury tax figure for 2004 is not $12.86 million ($90/7 years); it is $17.5 million or his salary of the one-year option. It is a huge mistake worth roughly $11.5 million. The CBA luxury tax section will be on the coffee table this weekend so my new total still could be rough. With that in mind, my new calculation has the Sox, including Schilling's old contract only, totaling $95.13 million for 13 players. Benefits run roughly another $8 million for a grand total of $103 million. It leaves only $17.5 million for the other 12 players - including Nixon (estimated at $6 million), Kim ($4.5), Ortiz ($2.5), and Williamson ($2.5) - needed to fill out the 25-man plus any one on the 40-man roster. Major moves would need to be made to acquire Foulke and not pay the luxury tax.

Transaction commentary is going to be late. It maybe posted by Thursday depending upon my participation in a mid-week celebration (two days until the weekend) at a local establishment.

Great article by Buster Olney of espn on Big Stein taking over baseball operations. Let's just hope it continues. Go get them B.S.

The rumors in the New York papers are usually such B.S., like most, but this one has some teeth to it – Jeff Weaver to L.A. for Kevin Brown. Ken Davidoff and Jon Heyman of New York Newsday did a nice job. L.A. should seriously consider the deal. They have been competing using smoke and mirrors over the last few seasons. It is time for them to rebuild. L.A. would ask for Nick Johnson or Alfonso Soriano and be denied. A more likely scenario would include the MFY taking on some dead weight in the form of Todd Hundley set to receive $6.5 million in 2004.

BASEBALL RUMORS…well, RED SOX AND Mother F&*%ing Yankee RUMORS everything else is small potatoes

New York Newsday is reporting.
1) Flash Gordon (one of my all-time favorite players) will sign with the MFY for $7 million over two years. It pains me to think of him in pinstripes. He will be a convict in cell block 137.
2) Paul Quantrill is inked for $6 million for two seasons. He did get a multi-year offer.
3) Felix Heredia will be paid $3.5 million in 2004 and 2005 to be the MFY’s LOOGY.
4) Kenny Lofton is a possibility for the MFY as well.
As most of you know, Gary Sheffield is rumored to have signed a deal with the MFY as well for $36-38 million to play in the outfield for three seasons. Hopefully, these are all just rumors but I doubt it. Sheffield is one of the best hitters in the world. There is little doubt he will add punch to the middle of the MFY lineup and is a huge upgrade over the mercenaries playing right in 2003. (Are MFY fans having doubts about Giambi, too?) But, the real weakness of the MFY is their defense up the middle. They also need to fill three spots in the rotation. Cashman should be addressing these two issues before anything else. More commentary will follow if and when the transactions go final.

Scott Williamson in yesterday’s Herald indicated he would like a chance in the rotation in 2004 if the Sox acquire Foulke or another “closer.” Williamson could do well as a starter. He has had success in the past. Williamson has good command of three plus pitches: fastball, slider and splitter. With that being said, Williamson should stay in the pen regardless of the Sox acquisitions.

If Williamson moved into the rotation, then he would need to throw an off-speed type of pitch to keep hitters off balance the second time through the lineup. Williamson's three main pitches are all of the hard/fast variety. He could definitely develop or get his feel back for an off-speed pitch, but it would be another necessary transition for him to make. The more changes required increases Williamson's probability of ineffectiveness in the rotation. The Sox do not need to take that risk with their current projected starting rotation.

More importantly, Williamson is the insurance policy on Timlin and Embree. Given that Timlin and Embree are both on the wrong side of thirty; it increases their chances of a drop in performance. Aside from the playoffs, Timlin’s only weakness, based on last season, was his inability to keep the ball in the park against LHB. Williamson can pitch to Giambi, Chavez, Nick Johnson, etc. without the fear of the tall jack. Embree could also fill that role, but he has had bouts of ineffectiveness due to velocity and/or health. Williamson would assist in ensuring a stable late relief situation.

The internet media is taking over traditional outlets! Allan and Ed do a great job of describing the Schilling deal which could be the critical point of the transformation.

The baseball rumors commentary will be posted early tomorrow. It was lost this evening. Football or hoop commentary on Tuesdays will be discontinued. Hot Stove is just too freaking interesting. Plus, no one comes here to read about hoops or kickball.

I apologize to all that have linked by site without a return link. I am just lazy. It will happen; this weekend.