Friday, August 22, 2003
PRODUCOR OR DOMINATOR?
Today, my vote for NL MVP is for Albert Pujols and not Barry Bonds. First off, I love Bonds. He is the greatest baseball player I have ever seen. His most recent heroics against the Braves is just amazing, regardless of Cox’s foolishness. But the MVP should be awarded to the player who added the most value to his team. In baseball, value is measured in runs by either scored or prevented. Since both frontrunners are paid to produce runs and play the same non-critical defensive position, left field, the analysis will focus on producing runs.
Most sabermetric folks, I guess I am one, talk about OBP, SLG, OPS and other fancy rate metrics, but they should primarily be used to forecast players' ability to produce runs. The MVP is based on past performance. We should use the hard historical data to determine the MVP and in this case, data on run production.
As of August 22nd, Pujols' run production [runs + RBI - HR] as a percentage of the Cardinals is 26.1%. Bonds' is 24.0%. It came as no surprise that Pujols had better numbers since Bonds missed a significant number of games this season. Pujols should not be penalized because Bonds has not been in the lineup as much. Pujols has account for 10.4% of the Cardinals plate appearances compared to 9.3% for Bonds.
In most cases, a players' run scored and RBI totals are very dependent upon the quality of your teammates. For example, a player could hit a lead off triple, but his next three teammates all strikeout leaving him stranded at third. The player who hit the triple should not be penalized due to the ineptitude of his teammates. The player who hit the triple should be credited with giving his team a chance of scoring.
The old-fashioned stat, total bases - tracks the number of bases a player accumulates - indicates the player's ability to produce opportunities for his team to score runs. It is solely dependent upon the hitter unlike runs and RBI. In this case, the difference between the players is smaller but not much. Pujols accounts for 15.4% of his team's total bases with Bonds at 13.7%. Again, the difference can be attributed to the games Bonds has missed.
There is little doubt that Bonds dominates the game of baseball but to date has not produced as much as Pujols due to his fewer plate appearances. The player who produces the most for his club should be the MVP. The season is not over yet. If Bonds can stay in the lineup over the next five weeks, he should win this race.
Today, my vote for NL MVP is for Albert Pujols and not Barry Bonds. First off, I love Bonds. He is the greatest baseball player I have ever seen. His most recent heroics against the Braves is just amazing, regardless of Cox’s foolishness. But the MVP should be awarded to the player who added the most value to his team. In baseball, value is measured in runs by either scored or prevented. Since both frontrunners are paid to produce runs and play the same non-critical defensive position, left field, the analysis will focus on producing runs.
Most sabermetric folks, I guess I am one, talk about OBP, SLG, OPS and other fancy rate metrics, but they should primarily be used to forecast players' ability to produce runs. The MVP is based on past performance. We should use the hard historical data to determine the MVP and in this case, data on run production.
As of August 22nd, Pujols' run production [runs + RBI - HR] as a percentage of the Cardinals is 26.1%. Bonds' is 24.0%. It came as no surprise that Pujols had better numbers since Bonds missed a significant number of games this season. Pujols should not be penalized because Bonds has not been in the lineup as much. Pujols has account for 10.4% of the Cardinals plate appearances compared to 9.3% for Bonds.
In most cases, a players' run scored and RBI totals are very dependent upon the quality of your teammates. For example, a player could hit a lead off triple, but his next three teammates all strikeout leaving him stranded at third. The player who hit the triple should not be penalized due to the ineptitude of his teammates. The player who hit the triple should be credited with giving his team a chance of scoring.
The old-fashioned stat, total bases - tracks the number of bases a player accumulates - indicates the player's ability to produce opportunities for his team to score runs. It is solely dependent upon the hitter unlike runs and RBI. In this case, the difference between the players is smaller but not much. Pujols accounts for 15.4% of his team's total bases with Bonds at 13.7%. Again, the difference can be attributed to the games Bonds has missed.
There is little doubt that Bonds dominates the game of baseball but to date has not produced as much as Pujols due to his fewer plate appearances. The player who produces the most for his club should be the MVP. The season is not over yet. If Bonds can stay in the lineup over the next five weeks, he should win this race.
Thursday, August 21, 2003
MY MOTHER TOLD ME…
I am sticking with yesterday’s theme so I do not vomit in my own mouth.
• Theo, how about making a move to fire up the boys? Maybe, someone who eats up lefties like the Governor of Massachusetts, Lou Merloni or Reggie Sanders. Merloni makes $560K and Sanders a cool $1 million both should be within budget. What’s their waiver status?
• In espn the Gagazine, Dan Patrick asks Carlos Delgado to describe hell. Delgado says Boston. They hate us there. When we walk in the ballpark, its, "You suck, you suck, you suck." That's all we hear for four days straight. Next season, I am going to sit on the first base line in Toronto to make Carlos feel like he is in hell even further north. See you in Toronto, Carlos and you suck!
• Curse of the Bambino, an HBO special, is airing on September 16th. Ed Cossette author of The Curse of the Bambino blogspot (link to right) now on Fox Sports New England is a part of the program.
• If you haven’t caught the World Series of Poker on espn, you should. It is wildly entertaining and makes me want to get into a regular poker game even though I suck.
• Let's go Saugus! Kick some Texas ass tonight. Don’t mess with Saugus.
I am sticking with yesterday’s theme so I do not vomit in my own mouth.
• Theo, how about making a move to fire up the boys? Maybe, someone who eats up lefties like the Governor of Massachusetts, Lou Merloni or Reggie Sanders. Merloni makes $560K and Sanders a cool $1 million both should be within budget. What’s their waiver status?
• In espn the Gagazine, Dan Patrick asks Carlos Delgado to describe hell. Delgado says Boston. They hate us there. When we walk in the ballpark, its, "You suck, you suck, you suck." That's all we hear for four days straight. Next season, I am going to sit on the first base line in Toronto to make Carlos feel like he is in hell even further north. See you in Toronto, Carlos and you suck!
• Curse of the Bambino, an HBO special, is airing on September 16th. Ed Cossette author of The Curse of the Bambino blogspot (link to right) now on Fox Sports New England is a part of the program.
• If you haven’t caught the World Series of Poker on espn, you should. It is wildly entertaining and makes me want to get into a regular poker game even though I suck.
• Let's go Saugus! Kick some Texas ass tonight. Don’t mess with Saugus.
Wednesday, August 20, 2003
My Mom says “If you got nothing nice to say, then don’t say anything at all.” So that is what I am doing. No Sox talk.
I do not watch much television besides sports and especially so during the baseball season. The quality of programming has continued to erode over the last three years to a degree that I rarely even give a new show a chance. (I am holding myself back from ranting about the blurring lines between journalism and entertainment and the complete “dumbing down” of all major media. I’ll save it for the boring winter months). With that being said, Nip/Tuck is worth a look. It airs on FX every Tuesday at 10 pm.
Before the first episode, it seemed like I was bombarded with promotions for the show. I am not sure if they were targeting my demographic, it was coincidental or the ads just stuck. Either way, the marketing team accomplished their objective and got me to watch the first show. It kicked ass and I am hooked for now.
I do not want to get into any details about the show since I hope you will watch it (I highly recommend the upcoming marathon starting on Monday). Basically, three friends from undergrad, two male and one female, are the main characters of Nip/Tuck. The two males are both plastic surgeons and partners in a practice. The female is married to one of the surgeons with two children, a teenage son and young daughter. The plastic surgery cases and the surgery itself are usually detailed and eccentric, which I bet is meant to hook in the viewer, but more importantly, the cases allow the viewer to understand the main characters better. The complexity of the characters and their competing desires within themselves and with each other is, what for now, separates this show from many others and keeps me locked on Tuesdays at 10 pm.
BTW, FYI, P.S. to all five people who visit the site with any type of regularity – Posts are going to be sporadic over the next two weeks or so. I will be traveling on the weekends and doing the whole moving thing.
I do not watch much television besides sports and especially so during the baseball season. The quality of programming has continued to erode over the last three years to a degree that I rarely even give a new show a chance. (I am holding myself back from ranting about the blurring lines between journalism and entertainment and the complete “dumbing down” of all major media. I’ll save it for the boring winter months). With that being said, Nip/Tuck is worth a look. It airs on FX every Tuesday at 10 pm.
Before the first episode, it seemed like I was bombarded with promotions for the show. I am not sure if they were targeting my demographic, it was coincidental or the ads just stuck. Either way, the marketing team accomplished their objective and got me to watch the first show. It kicked ass and I am hooked for now.
I do not want to get into any details about the show since I hope you will watch it (I highly recommend the upcoming marathon starting on Monday). Basically, three friends from undergrad, two male and one female, are the main characters of Nip/Tuck. The two males are both plastic surgeons and partners in a practice. The female is married to one of the surgeons with two children, a teenage son and young daughter. The plastic surgery cases and the surgery itself are usually detailed and eccentric, which I bet is meant to hook in the viewer, but more importantly, the cases allow the viewer to understand the main characters better. The complexity of the characters and their competing desires within themselves and with each other is, what for now, separates this show from many others and keeps me locked on Tuesdays at 10 pm.
BTW, FYI, P.S. to all five people who visit the site with any type of regularity – Posts are going to be sporadic over the next two weeks or so. I will be traveling on the weekends and doing the whole moving thing.
Monday, August 18, 2003
I mean
one half step too late or to early
you don't quite make it.
One half second too slow or too fast
and you don't quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in every break of the game
every minute, every second.
Even though this pre-game speech from Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday is about football, it is applicable to baseball as well. Yesterday’s game was a perfect example. Burkett getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, Ferris’ ground rule double and Nomie’s third strike call to name a few. If the Sox got those inches, we could be talking about a great road trip winning four of seven from the best in the west. Of course we are not, but the post-season is still within reach. (Check out the new link to the right - baseballprosectus.com calculates each team’s second season’s probability.)
Tony Massarotti from the Boston Herald sums up the critical road trip well.
Let the doomsayers do all the grousing and grumbling they want today, but the rational thinkers (if there are any) recognize that what happened in California and Washington in the past seven days is exactly what should have happened. It was not what could have happened and not what the Red Sox wanted to happen, but it was the most probable outcome of seven games in Oakland and Seattle.
Combined, the A's and Mariners are 83-48 at home this season, a winning percentage of .634. They have the two best pitching staffs in the American League (Oakland first, Seattle second). In seven days, the Sox faced a collection of starters that included Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro and Freddy Garcia, who are a combined 74-47 this year and an aggregate 201 games better than .500 for their careers.
Now the tables get turned. Oakland and Seattle head back east to play seven at Fenway. The Red Sox have a 672 winning percentage at home (second only to Oaktown). The Sox sluggers really come alive at home with a 937 OPS compared to 778 away from Fenway. It would be great for the Old Town Team to go on tear over the next couple of weeks.
The Red Sox have history has not been kind to Boston's offensive juggernauts. The 1950 Red Sox starting lineup batted .313. The entire team hit .302, but finished in third place. The 1977 Sox hit a club record 213 homers, but finished tied for second, behind the World Champion Yankees. (Shaughnessy, Boston Globe).
I understand that Shaughnessy profits from continuing to use Red Sox history as a way to explain and/or predict current Sox ball. It makes for interesting conversation, but most of the time it is completely irrational. In the example above, no player from 1950 or 1977 is on the current club or on any other club (besides a couple and I believe none in the A.L.). Are the Managers, Coaches, General Managers the same? Not too many of them if at all. Thus, how does the cited history impact the current club as Shaughnessy insinuates? It does not. Oh wait; it must be the Curse of the Bambino. And what do you know; Shaughnessy has sold many of books by the same title.
one half step too late or to early
you don't quite make it.
One half second too slow or too fast
and you don't quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in every break of the game
every minute, every second.
Even though this pre-game speech from Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday is about football, it is applicable to baseball as well. Yesterday’s game was a perfect example. Burkett getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, Ferris’ ground rule double and Nomie’s third strike call to name a few. If the Sox got those inches, we could be talking about a great road trip winning four of seven from the best in the west. Of course we are not, but the post-season is still within reach. (Check out the new link to the right - baseballprosectus.com calculates each team’s second season’s probability.)
Tony Massarotti from the Boston Herald sums up the critical road trip well.
Let the doomsayers do all the grousing and grumbling they want today, but the rational thinkers (if there are any) recognize that what happened in California and Washington in the past seven days is exactly what should have happened. It was not what could have happened and not what the Red Sox wanted to happen, but it was the most probable outcome of seven games in Oakland and Seattle.
Combined, the A's and Mariners are 83-48 at home this season, a winning percentage of .634. They have the two best pitching staffs in the American League (Oakland first, Seattle second). In seven days, the Sox faced a collection of starters that included Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro and Freddy Garcia, who are a combined 74-47 this year and an aggregate 201 games better than .500 for their careers.
Now the tables get turned. Oakland and Seattle head back east to play seven at Fenway. The Red Sox have a 672 winning percentage at home (second only to Oaktown). The Sox sluggers really come alive at home with a 937 OPS compared to 778 away from Fenway. It would be great for the Old Town Team to go on tear over the next couple of weeks.
The Red Sox have history has not been kind to Boston's offensive juggernauts. The 1950 Red Sox starting lineup batted .313. The entire team hit .302, but finished in third place. The 1977 Sox hit a club record 213 homers, but finished tied for second, behind the World Champion Yankees. (Shaughnessy, Boston Globe).
I understand that Shaughnessy profits from continuing to use Red Sox history as a way to explain and/or predict current Sox ball. It makes for interesting conversation, but most of the time it is completely irrational. In the example above, no player from 1950 or 1977 is on the current club or on any other club (besides a couple and I believe none in the A.L.). Are the Managers, Coaches, General Managers the same? Not too many of them if at all. Thus, how does the cited history impact the current club as Shaughnessy insinuates? It does not. Oh wait; it must be the Curse of the Bambino. And what do you know; Shaughnessy has sold many of books by the same title.
Sunday, August 17, 2003
344/482/634
521
406
Since I am a numbers geek and I never saw the man live on a baseball field, this is one of the two ways I recall Ted Williams. A career 344 hitter with 521 homers in 19 seasons. The last player to bat above 400 for a season. The highest OBP of any player for a career at 482 and second highest slugging percentage and OPS at 634 and 1116, respectfully. Just AMAZING!
521
406
Since I am a numbers geek and I never saw the man live on a baseball field, this is one of the two ways I recall Ted Williams. A career 344 hitter with 521 homers in 19 seasons. The last player to bat above 400 for a season. The highest OBP of any player for a career at 482 and second highest slugging percentage and OPS at 634 and 1116, respectfully. Just AMAZING!
Friday, August 15, 2003
Message to the A’s:
To hell with your F--cking A trades, that was a F--cking A WIN!
Manny is the Man. He is contemplating running for Governor…of New England.
A spilt in Oakland against three southpaws is huge. The Sox offense falls off away from Fenway and versus lefties. Plus, Network Coliseum is a pitcher’s park. The cards were stacked against the Old Town Team. Now the Sox move onto another big series in Rain-ville.
The key to the series could be the first three innings of tonight’s game. If the Sox can jump on Moyer early, the Mariners might have to use one or more of their set-up relievers in the middle innings. Soriano and Mateo both pitched three innings in the last couple of days. An overworked pen could prove to be edge the Sox need to win this series.
Noteworthy facts:
• Mike Cameron (the most underrated player) could be out for a couple more days according to the Seattle Times.
• John Olerud is hitting 241/328/310 against southpaws this season.
• David Ortiz better be in the lineup tonight. He has an OPS of 1561 against Moyer in, a statistically significant, 23 at-bats. Manny has an OPS of 1492 in 37, Nomar 1087 in 30, but Kapler is at 528 in 18 so Nixon should be an option tonight even against the lefty.
• Edgar eats up Suppan with a 1478 OPS in 26 at-bats, McLemore at 945 in 23 and Olerud 1035 in 20. The probable loss of Cameron’s bat tonight should be alleviated if McLemore gets the start.
• Freddy Garica maybe pitching better lately, but walking five and giving up a dinger in sixth and a third should not put fear into the hearts of the Sox sluggers. Most notable, Vtek.com who has an OPS of 947 in 19 at-bats and Nixon at 825 in 20.
• John Brooke Burkie has bad history against Edgar (987 OPS in 31), Dan Wilson (1038 in 28), Jeff Cirillo (944 in 18), but handles Boone (575 in 23). Hopefully, Wilson and Cirillo, currently on a rehab assignment, will be out of the lineup on Sunday.
To hell with your F--cking A trades, that was a F--cking A WIN!
Manny is the Man. He is contemplating running for Governor…of New England.
A spilt in Oakland against three southpaws is huge. The Sox offense falls off away from Fenway and versus lefties. Plus, Network Coliseum is a pitcher’s park. The cards were stacked against the Old Town Team. Now the Sox move onto another big series in Rain-ville.
The key to the series could be the first three innings of tonight’s game. If the Sox can jump on Moyer early, the Mariners might have to use one or more of their set-up relievers in the middle innings. Soriano and Mateo both pitched three innings in the last couple of days. An overworked pen could prove to be edge the Sox need to win this series.
Noteworthy facts:
• Mike Cameron (the most underrated player) could be out for a couple more days according to the Seattle Times.
• John Olerud is hitting 241/328/310 against southpaws this season.
• David Ortiz better be in the lineup tonight. He has an OPS of 1561 against Moyer in, a statistically significant, 23 at-bats. Manny has an OPS of 1492 in 37, Nomar 1087 in 30, but Kapler is at 528 in 18 so Nixon should be an option tonight even against the lefty.
• Edgar eats up Suppan with a 1478 OPS in 26 at-bats, McLemore at 945 in 23 and Olerud 1035 in 20. The probable loss of Cameron’s bat tonight should be alleviated if McLemore gets the start.
• Freddy Garica maybe pitching better lately, but walking five and giving up a dinger in sixth and a third should not put fear into the hearts of the Sox sluggers. Most notable, Vtek.com who has an OPS of 947 in 19 at-bats and Nixon at 825 in 20.
• John Brooke Burkie has bad history against Edgar (987 OPS in 31), Dan Wilson (1038 in 28), Jeff Cirillo (944 in 18), but handles Boone (575 in 23). Hopefully, Wilson and Cirillo, currently on a rehab assignment, will be out of the lineup on Sunday.
Thursday, August 14, 2003
COME ON LET’S CELEBRATE…
…well, not yet. I do not want to write about the negative: DLowe’s below average performance, Shady Chicken Little’s shenanigans, and Sauer-Patch Kid’s inconsistency. A win is a win and this one was a big one. The bats came alive as we knew they would. Manny had much better at-bats. He was laying off the pitch on the outside corner instead of trying to pull it. When he starts crushing that pitch to right and right-center, he is on. Another sign is when Manny has long at-bats. He just fouls off pitch after pitch, usually circling around the catcher and umpire frustrated after each foul ball, until he gets one to drive. Hopefully, Manny gets hot and carries this club for a week. This would be the perfect week for Manny to get his freak on!
…well, not yet. I do not want to write about the negative: DLowe’s below average performance, Shady Chicken Little’s shenanigans, and Sauer-Patch Kid’s inconsistency. A win is a win and this one was a big one. The bats came alive as we knew they would. Manny had much better at-bats. He was laying off the pitch on the outside corner instead of trying to pull it. When he starts crushing that pitch to right and right-center, he is on. Another sign is when Manny has long at-bats. He just fouls off pitch after pitch, usually circling around the catcher and umpire frustrated after each foul ball, until he gets one to drive. Hopefully, Manny gets hot and carries this club for a week. This would be the perfect week for Manny to get his freak on!
Wednesday, August 13, 2003
Have I started to panic? Yes. No. I mean…perhaps.
The Red Sox are slumping at the worst possible time winning once out of their last six contests. BUT, two more games remain in Oaktown and three in Seattle before the boys come back home. No one should have expected the Sox to win both series out west. The cards are stacked against them: four lefty starters, pitchers parks, slumping offense. The Yanks played 500-ball on this same stretch (home and aways) in May and I was hoping for something similar. We shall see in about twelve days.
As for tonight’s starting pitcher,
"Apparently I'm the only way we're going to make the playoffs, even though Pedro [Martinez] and I won 42 games last year and we didn't make it," said Lowe. "It's up to me, apparently. The whole season depends on my 10 starts the rest of the year. That's what I understand."
"I expect to pitch better, but there's no formula [for making the playoffs]," he said. "If I lose [tonight], is the season over? Do we quit and go home?"
"I like the fact that everyone wants you to pitch [well], but everyone keeps talking about who's going to be the No. 2 guy in the playoffs," Lowe said. "We haven't made the playoffs in four years. You've got to get there first, and it takes everybody to make it there." (Hohler, Boston Globe)
Nice attitude – Donkey Boy!
DLowe, you are correct. It does take an entire team to make the playoffs, but you are an important Cogswell Cog. DLowe step it up and pitch better. The TEAM needs it now more than ever from their other “ace.” And if that doesn’t motivate you, then 30+ year-old starting pitchers with an ERA above 5 do not get their option picked up too often.
The Red Sox are slumping at the worst possible time winning once out of their last six contests. BUT, two more games remain in Oaktown and three in Seattle before the boys come back home. No one should have expected the Sox to win both series out west. The cards are stacked against them: four lefty starters, pitchers parks, slumping offense. The Yanks played 500-ball on this same stretch (home and aways) in May and I was hoping for something similar. We shall see in about twelve days.
As for tonight’s starting pitcher,
"Apparently I'm the only way we're going to make the playoffs, even though Pedro [Martinez] and I won 42 games last year and we didn't make it," said Lowe. "It's up to me, apparently. The whole season depends on my 10 starts the rest of the year. That's what I understand."
"I expect to pitch better, but there's no formula [for making the playoffs]," he said. "If I lose [tonight], is the season over? Do we quit and go home?"
"I like the fact that everyone wants you to pitch [well], but everyone keeps talking about who's going to be the No. 2 guy in the playoffs," Lowe said. "We haven't made the playoffs in four years. You've got to get there first, and it takes everybody to make it there." (Hohler, Boston Globe)
Nice attitude – Donkey Boy!
DLowe, you are correct. It does take an entire team to make the playoffs, but you are an important Cogswell Cog. DLowe step it up and pitch better. The TEAM needs it now more than ever from their other “ace.” And if that doesn’t motivate you, then 30+ year-old starting pitchers with an ERA above 5 do not get their option picked up too often.
Tuesday, August 12, 2003
I am wicked tried today. Driving back from Maine yesterday night (Portland is a great town with a nice park) then staying up to watch Tim Hudson shutout the Sox on like 96 pitches. Hopefully, the Sox were just as tried for work as I am today and the reason for their poor performance last night. Here is my lazy performance.
I mentioned before how much I enjoy Jim Caple's work. Below are excerpts of a recent column named, Hidden treasures: All-underrated list, and my 63-cent on da dollar. (A link to the Jim Caple’s archive is on the right).
Underrated dessert: Rice Krispy treats
Better than tiramisu. Cheaper than soufflé.
"So good. So good. So good."
Underrated vehicle: Small cars
You can have your gas-guzzling, ozone-depleting, global-warming SUVs that are ready to handle the off-road driving experience you'll never, ever experience. I'll save time and money by sticking to the small car that handles better on actual roads, zips in and out of rush-hour traffic, slips into the slimmest of street parking slots and only needs refueling once a month.
Public transportation is even better. Just sit back and relax.
Underrated foreign country: Canada
Great cities, spectacular scenery, friendly people, sensible medical coverage, superb hockey, unbeatable exchange rate.
Unbeatable ballet.
Underrated sports babe: Olympic pole vaulter Tatiana Grigorieva
She makes Anna look like Marge Schott.
I have had the privilege to stand a foot away from Anna. She is the most beautiful women I have ever seen. No doubt.
Underrated government service: U.S. Postal Service
Let's see. They come to our doors every day, bringing welcome family letters, magazines and Victoria's Secret catalogues. They pick up whatever mail we leave for them. They drive it to the post office. They sort it. They drive it to the airport. They put it on a plane. They fly it across the country. They take it off the plane. They put it on a truck. They drive it to the address regardless of where he or she may live and deliver it to the door. Within three days. For 37 cents. And we bitch about the cost and efficiency of mail delivery? We shouldn't be complaining, we should be asking how the hell they can do it.
(Runnerup: The library system. You can check out the latest bestseller or a book that's been out of print for 50 years. You check out a video or a CD. You can use their computers to surf the web and exchange email. And it's all free.)
I vote for the library since regular mail will be obsolete soon. We need more libraries and less Borders and Barnes and Nobles.
Underrated statistic: The run
Forget home runs, ERA, saves or OPS. At the end of the game, there is only one statistic that matters in baseball. The run. If you score more of them than your opponent, you win. If you don't, you lose. So why does the run get so little respect? Why is it considered less important than the RBI? Why do box scores give the season totals for home runs, RBIs, double, triples, stolen bases, caught stealing, errors, wins, loss, saves, batting average and ERA but not runs? Why is the triple crown based on the league leader in home runs, batting average and RBIs instead of average, home runs and runs? Why do we all know the record for RBIs in a season (Hack Wilson's 191) yet don't have a clue who holds the record for runs scored (Babe Ruth, 177)?
I wish I knew the answer.
Caple speaks the truth and Rickey is the man.
I mentioned before how much I enjoy Jim Caple's work. Below are excerpts of a recent column named, Hidden treasures: All-underrated list, and my 63-cent on da dollar. (A link to the Jim Caple’s archive is on the right).
Underrated dessert: Rice Krispy treats
Better than tiramisu. Cheaper than soufflé.
"So good. So good. So good."
Underrated vehicle: Small cars
You can have your gas-guzzling, ozone-depleting, global-warming SUVs that are ready to handle the off-road driving experience you'll never, ever experience. I'll save time and money by sticking to the small car that handles better on actual roads, zips in and out of rush-hour traffic, slips into the slimmest of street parking slots and only needs refueling once a month.
Public transportation is even better. Just sit back and relax.
Underrated foreign country: Canada
Great cities, spectacular scenery, friendly people, sensible medical coverage, superb hockey, unbeatable exchange rate.
Unbeatable ballet.
Underrated sports babe: Olympic pole vaulter Tatiana Grigorieva
She makes Anna look like Marge Schott.
I have had the privilege to stand a foot away from Anna. She is the most beautiful women I have ever seen. No doubt.
Underrated government service: U.S. Postal Service
Let's see. They come to our doors every day, bringing welcome family letters, magazines and Victoria's Secret catalogues. They pick up whatever mail we leave for them. They drive it to the post office. They sort it. They drive it to the airport. They put it on a plane. They fly it across the country. They take it off the plane. They put it on a truck. They drive it to the address regardless of where he or she may live and deliver it to the door. Within three days. For 37 cents. And we bitch about the cost and efficiency of mail delivery? We shouldn't be complaining, we should be asking how the hell they can do it.
(Runnerup: The library system. You can check out the latest bestseller or a book that's been out of print for 50 years. You check out a video or a CD. You can use their computers to surf the web and exchange email. And it's all free.)
I vote for the library since regular mail will be obsolete soon. We need more libraries and less Borders and Barnes and Nobles.
Underrated statistic: The run
Forget home runs, ERA, saves or OPS. At the end of the game, there is only one statistic that matters in baseball. The run. If you score more of them than your opponent, you win. If you don't, you lose. So why does the run get so little respect? Why is it considered less important than the RBI? Why do box scores give the season totals for home runs, RBIs, double, triples, stolen bases, caught stealing, errors, wins, loss, saves, batting average and ERA but not runs? Why is the triple crown based on the league leader in home runs, batting average and RBIs instead of average, home runs and runs? Why do we all know the record for RBIs in a season (Hack Wilson's 191) yet don't have a clue who holds the record for runs scored (Babe Ruth, 177)?
I wish I knew the answer.
Caple speaks the truth and Rickey is the man.
Friday, August 08, 2003
The Red Sox Day in Burlington was just a big love fest minus an idiot carrying a “1918” sign giving Yanks fans everywhere a bad name. Free stuff to fans, contests, talks from Lucky Larry, Werner, Brandon Lyon, various politicians, Wally and Bill “Spaceman” Lee with Bob ‘I got my lunch stolen everyday at school” Rodgers MCing was in a nutshell Red Sox Day in Burlington. It was corny but it is nice to be recognized as a “critical part of Red Sox Nation.”
Funnies:
• Brandon Lyon on coming off the DL, “It is not my decision. Maybe in a week.”
• Brandon Lyon on moving to the rotation, “It is not my decision.”
• Brandon Lyon on coming back to Boston, “It was not my decision.”
• The owners were giving autographs?
• It “appeared” like Lucky Larry was wearing a very similar shirt to the one he had on the previous night at Fenway when we made a nice catch in the stands.
• Bill Lee says the curse will be broken this year because we have live owners.
Couple of notes:
• Please have Pedro on a jet plane for Oaktown on Sunday morning.
• Please have BK throw some BP this weekend. The Sox hitters should get a look at a submariner before heading to Oakland when they will inevitably have to face Chad Bradford. The key to series could be hitting the middle relief.
Funnies:
• Brandon Lyon on coming off the DL, “It is not my decision. Maybe in a week.”
• Brandon Lyon on moving to the rotation, “It is not my decision.”
• Brandon Lyon on coming back to Boston, “It was not my decision.”
• The owners were giving autographs?
• It “appeared” like Lucky Larry was wearing a very similar shirt to the one he had on the previous night at Fenway when we made a nice catch in the stands.
• Bill Lee says the curse will be broken this year because we have live owners.
Couple of notes:
• Please have Pedro on a jet plane for Oaktown on Sunday morning.
• Please have BK throw some BP this weekend. The Sox hitters should get a look at a submariner before heading to Oakland when they will inevitably have to face Chad Bradford. The key to series could be hitting the middle relief.
Thursday, August 07, 2003
So much to say. So much to say. So much to say. So much to say....
…but I won’t. I will say that we witnessed near vintage Pedro last night with the mid-90’s fastball, the sharp breaking downward curve, and the Bugs Buddy change-up over nine innings. (I am concerned about the high pitch count, but not so much because Pedro’s velocity actually increased at the end of the game.) I love watching Pedro when he is on. Pedro! Pedro! Pedro!
• Sending Manny out before rest of team in the first was hilarious. Back in high school, we used to do the same thing once a year to a rookie. The rook would skate around the rink by himself before the rest of the team joined him. This joke never gets old.
• Theo, why didn’t you block the Nelson-Bentinez deal?
• I heard yesterday morning on the radio that Tyler Pelland is the PTBNL in the Reds deal. Pelland is from up here in Vermont. I think we can rate that deal as a huge steal for the Sox. It was just a steal when I thought first round pick, Jon Lester was the PTBNL. Great move by Theo!
• Senator Chris Dodd from Conn. was at a Yanks game last night after professing his loyalty to the Sox on Red Sox Day in the Nutmeg State. Freaking traitor! I should have known; Dodd is from the quasi-New England state. Today is Vermont Red Sox Day down on Church Street in Burlington! I’ll be there and so will Senator Patrick Leahy (a St. Mike’s graduate like El Guapo’s Ghost). If Leahy pulls a Dodd, Saint Patrick will still get my vote, but our picture is coming down in El Guapo’s Ghost’s Garage.
…but I won’t. I will say that we witnessed near vintage Pedro last night with the mid-90’s fastball, the sharp breaking downward curve, and the Bugs Buddy change-up over nine innings. (I am concerned about the high pitch count, but not so much because Pedro’s velocity actually increased at the end of the game.) I love watching Pedro when he is on. Pedro! Pedro! Pedro!
• Sending Manny out before rest of team in the first was hilarious. Back in high school, we used to do the same thing once a year to a rookie. The rook would skate around the rink by himself before the rest of the team joined him. This joke never gets old.
• Theo, why didn’t you block the Nelson-Bentinez deal?
• I heard yesterday morning on the radio that Tyler Pelland is the PTBNL in the Reds deal. Pelland is from up here in Vermont. I think we can rate that deal as a huge steal for the Sox. It was just a steal when I thought first round pick, Jon Lester was the PTBNL. Great move by Theo!
• Senator Chris Dodd from Conn. was at a Yanks game last night after professing his loyalty to the Sox on Red Sox Day in the Nutmeg State. Freaking traitor! I should have known; Dodd is from the quasi-New England state. Today is Vermont Red Sox Day down on Church Street in Burlington! I’ll be there and so will Senator Patrick Leahy (a St. Mike’s graduate like El Guapo’s Ghost). If Leahy pulls a Dodd, Saint Patrick will still get my vote, but our picture is coming down in El Guapo’s Ghost’s Garage.
Tuesday, August 05, 2003
GUESS WHO?
Month – AVG/OBP/SLG
Apr – 370/436/630
May – 229/290/466
Jun – 268/302/415
Jul – 240/270/427
It is the great April Alfonso Soriano! Soriano is a great talent, but it appears the league has caught up to his free swing ways. As Ted Williams said “The key to hitting is to get a good pitch to hit. You have to be selective” (Scholfield, North County Times). Theo should continue to beat Cashman to the punch and buy all of the remaining copies of Williams’ The Science of Hitting.
Month – AVG/OBP/SLG
Apr – 370/436/630
May – 229/290/466
Jun – 268/302/415
Jul – 240/270/427
It is the great April Alfonso Soriano! Soriano is a great talent, but it appears the league has caught up to his free swing ways. As Ted Williams said “The key to hitting is to get a good pitch to hit. You have to be selective” (Scholfield, North County Times). Theo should continue to beat Cashman to the punch and buy all of the remaining copies of Williams’ The Science of Hitting.
Monday, August 04, 2003
REALISTIC AND UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Some weeks ago, I was telling a couple of friends that I really have unrealistic expectations of Nomar and Pedro. I want the Nomar and Pedro in their primes at ages 26-28 during the 1999 and 2000 seasons. They were nearly flawless. Nomar hit around 365/425/600 and Pedro had an 8.5 K/BB ratio and struck out twelve per nine while occasionally going the distance of a ballgame. Neither is producing as they did, but both are still among the elite. I realized that I have the same impractical expectations for Theo and is part of my disappointment in the acquisition of Jeff Suppan. Suppan is definitely an upgrade over Mendoza, but I was hoping for Javy Vazquez and would have had better feelings about Sidney Ponson or Kelvin Escobar. All of the aforementioned are strikeout pitchers who would have minimized the Sox’s greatest weakness – fielding. Suppan is a younger and slightly better John Burkett. We of Red Sox Nation should not be as excited as most of the mainstream media has been about this deal.
The Pirates, asserting Lyon was damaged goods (contrary to Boston's findings), sought compensation from the Sox, and the teams negotiated until early yesterday morning, with Epstein also seeking Suppan from Pittsburgh GM Dave Littlefield (Hohler, Boston Globe).
The word out of the Pirates camp was that they were seeking either Freddy Sanchez or Kelly Shoppach as compensation. John Sickels’, from espn.com, thoughts on Sanchez…
Based on his minor-league numbers, he projects as a .280-.310 hitter at the major-league level, with a fine on-base percentage and plenty of doubles. A normal growth curve would make him a potential batting champion down the line, although at this point of his career the word potential must be emphasized.
Sanchez should be a productive everyday infielder at a low cost over the next three seasons allowing the Sox to potentially spend in other areas. These players do not grow on trees, at least not on the Sox farm. This sentiment was echoed by Lucky Larry when he said something to the affect that he would have to hold a gun to Theo's head to trade Freddy. Perhaps, Littlefield was holding the gun and Theo had another pointed at the Sox medical staff.
It was reported that Theo did not have any other dance partners so this was the best available deal for a starter. It was also pushed along to make the prior deal “whole.” Theo did not want the Lyon medical issue resolved by a third party. After breaking an unwritten rule by claiming Millar off waivers, some GMs must not have been looking very favorably on the new 29 year-old GM from Beantown. Theo did not want the fraternity to view him in a negative light again. He needs to have a good working relationship with the other 29 GMs.
All things considered, this was not a bad deal (I am disappointed that the minor leaguers went back to their original clubs. Gonzalez has more upside than a Martinez), I was just looking for more because…
…Lowe has been horrible as a #2 starter for a playoff contender. The chart below lists the complete AL stats in 2003, Lowe in 2003 and 2002 through July. It does not include Lowe’s crappy start on Saturday.
AL 03 02
BB/IN 0.353 0.343 0.219
SO/IN 0.679 0.552 0.580
HR/IN 0.125 0.104 0.055
BABIP 0.291 0.309 0.235
DLowe should be better than AL pitchers in three out of the four critical pitching statistics (BA BIP is batting average for ball in play). As you can see, he is below the AL in strikeouts, but not much off his 2002 pace. BA BIP is above the AL and much higher than his 2002 season. DLowe was extremely fortunate in 2002. We could anticipate that Lowe would have another BA BIP of 235 in 2003, especially with less range on the right side of the infield. Given the Sox’s overall average of 304, a vast improvement, below the AL, is unlikely since the Sox defense plays a role in determining the outcome.
DLowe can improve his BB and HR rates. They are much worst than last season and his entire career. From 1998-2001 as a relief pitcher, Lowe’s BB rate was .285 and HR rate of .06 in 414 innings. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that Lowe’s 2002 BB and HR rates were not flukes and we should be seeing BB and HR rates in 2003 similar or slightly higher than his career numbers.
As you can see, DLowe’s BB rate has jumped 57% over last season and his HR rate nearly doubled. I do not know if Lowe’s problem is mental (cancer scare, no pitching coach, added pressure from last seasons Cy Young type season), physical (his mechanics/release point is not consistent) or both. I do know that DLowe has two months to improve or RSN can forgetabout playing deep into October.
Some weeks ago, I was telling a couple of friends that I really have unrealistic expectations of Nomar and Pedro. I want the Nomar and Pedro in their primes at ages 26-28 during the 1999 and 2000 seasons. They were nearly flawless. Nomar hit around 365/425/600 and Pedro had an 8.5 K/BB ratio and struck out twelve per nine while occasionally going the distance of a ballgame. Neither is producing as they did, but both are still among the elite. I realized that I have the same impractical expectations for Theo and is part of my disappointment in the acquisition of Jeff Suppan. Suppan is definitely an upgrade over Mendoza, but I was hoping for Javy Vazquez and would have had better feelings about Sidney Ponson or Kelvin Escobar. All of the aforementioned are strikeout pitchers who would have minimized the Sox’s greatest weakness – fielding. Suppan is a younger and slightly better John Burkett. We of Red Sox Nation should not be as excited as most of the mainstream media has been about this deal.
The Pirates, asserting Lyon was damaged goods (contrary to Boston's findings), sought compensation from the Sox, and the teams negotiated until early yesterday morning, with Epstein also seeking Suppan from Pittsburgh GM Dave Littlefield (Hohler, Boston Globe).
The word out of the Pirates camp was that they were seeking either Freddy Sanchez or Kelly Shoppach as compensation. John Sickels’, from espn.com, thoughts on Sanchez…
Based on his minor-league numbers, he projects as a .280-.310 hitter at the major-league level, with a fine on-base percentage and plenty of doubles. A normal growth curve would make him a potential batting champion down the line, although at this point of his career the word potential must be emphasized.
Sanchez should be a productive everyday infielder at a low cost over the next three seasons allowing the Sox to potentially spend in other areas. These players do not grow on trees, at least not on the Sox farm. This sentiment was echoed by Lucky Larry when he said something to the affect that he would have to hold a gun to Theo's head to trade Freddy. Perhaps, Littlefield was holding the gun and Theo had another pointed at the Sox medical staff.
It was reported that Theo did not have any other dance partners so this was the best available deal for a starter. It was also pushed along to make the prior deal “whole.” Theo did not want the Lyon medical issue resolved by a third party. After breaking an unwritten rule by claiming Millar off waivers, some GMs must not have been looking very favorably on the new 29 year-old GM from Beantown. Theo did not want the fraternity to view him in a negative light again. He needs to have a good working relationship with the other 29 GMs.
All things considered, this was not a bad deal (I am disappointed that the minor leaguers went back to their original clubs. Gonzalez has more upside than a Martinez), I was just looking for more because…
…Lowe has been horrible as a #2 starter for a playoff contender. The chart below lists the complete AL stats in 2003, Lowe in 2003 and 2002 through July. It does not include Lowe’s crappy start on Saturday.
AL 03 02
BB/IN 0.353 0.343 0.219
SO/IN 0.679 0.552 0.580
HR/IN 0.125 0.104 0.055
BABIP 0.291 0.309 0.235
DLowe should be better than AL pitchers in three out of the four critical pitching statistics (BA BIP is batting average for ball in play). As you can see, he is below the AL in strikeouts, but not much off his 2002 pace. BA BIP is above the AL and much higher than his 2002 season. DLowe was extremely fortunate in 2002. We could anticipate that Lowe would have another BA BIP of 235 in 2003, especially with less range on the right side of the infield. Given the Sox’s overall average of 304, a vast improvement, below the AL, is unlikely since the Sox defense plays a role in determining the outcome.
DLowe can improve his BB and HR rates. They are much worst than last season and his entire career. From 1998-2001 as a relief pitcher, Lowe’s BB rate was .285 and HR rate of .06 in 414 innings. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that Lowe’s 2002 BB and HR rates were not flukes and we should be seeing BB and HR rates in 2003 similar or slightly higher than his career numbers.
As you can see, DLowe’s BB rate has jumped 57% over last season and his HR rate nearly doubled. I do not know if Lowe’s problem is mental (cancer scare, no pitching coach, added pressure from last seasons Cy Young type season), physical (his mechanics/release point is not consistent) or both. I do know that DLowe has two months to improve or RSN can forgetabout playing deep into October.
Thank you - Red Sox!
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