Monday, August 04, 2003
REALISTIC AND UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Some weeks ago, I was telling a couple of friends that I really have unrealistic expectations of Nomar and Pedro. I want the Nomar and Pedro in their primes at ages 26-28 during the 1999 and 2000 seasons. They were nearly flawless. Nomar hit around 365/425/600 and Pedro had an 8.5 K/BB ratio and struck out twelve per nine while occasionally going the distance of a ballgame. Neither is producing as they did, but both are still among the elite. I realized that I have the same impractical expectations for Theo and is part of my disappointment in the acquisition of Jeff Suppan. Suppan is definitely an upgrade over Mendoza, but I was hoping for Javy Vazquez and would have had better feelings about Sidney Ponson or Kelvin Escobar. All of the aforementioned are strikeout pitchers who would have minimized the Sox’s greatest weakness – fielding. Suppan is a younger and slightly better John Burkett. We of Red Sox Nation should not be as excited as most of the mainstream media has been about this deal.
The Pirates, asserting Lyon was damaged goods (contrary to Boston's findings), sought compensation from the Sox, and the teams negotiated until early yesterday morning, with Epstein also seeking Suppan from Pittsburgh GM Dave Littlefield (Hohler, Boston Globe).
The word out of the Pirates camp was that they were seeking either Freddy Sanchez or Kelly Shoppach as compensation. John Sickels’, from espn.com, thoughts on Sanchez…
Based on his minor-league numbers, he projects as a .280-.310 hitter at the major-league level, with a fine on-base percentage and plenty of doubles. A normal growth curve would make him a potential batting champion down the line, although at this point of his career the word potential must be emphasized.
Sanchez should be a productive everyday infielder at a low cost over the next three seasons allowing the Sox to potentially spend in other areas. These players do not grow on trees, at least not on the Sox farm. This sentiment was echoed by Lucky Larry when he said something to the affect that he would have to hold a gun to Theo's head to trade Freddy. Perhaps, Littlefield was holding the gun and Theo had another pointed at the Sox medical staff.
It was reported that Theo did not have any other dance partners so this was the best available deal for a starter. It was also pushed along to make the prior deal “whole.” Theo did not want the Lyon medical issue resolved by a third party. After breaking an unwritten rule by claiming Millar off waivers, some GMs must not have been looking very favorably on the new 29 year-old GM from Beantown. Theo did not want the fraternity to view him in a negative light again. He needs to have a good working relationship with the other 29 GMs.
All things considered, this was not a bad deal (I am disappointed that the minor leaguers went back to their original clubs. Gonzalez has more upside than a Martinez), I was just looking for more because…
…Lowe has been horrible as a #2 starter for a playoff contender. The chart below lists the complete AL stats in 2003, Lowe in 2003 and 2002 through July. It does not include Lowe’s crappy start on Saturday.
AL 03 02
BB/IN 0.353 0.343 0.219
SO/IN 0.679 0.552 0.580
HR/IN 0.125 0.104 0.055
BABIP 0.291 0.309 0.235
DLowe should be better than AL pitchers in three out of the four critical pitching statistics (BA BIP is batting average for ball in play). As you can see, he is below the AL in strikeouts, but not much off his 2002 pace. BA BIP is above the AL and much higher than his 2002 season. DLowe was extremely fortunate in 2002. We could anticipate that Lowe would have another BA BIP of 235 in 2003, especially with less range on the right side of the infield. Given the Sox’s overall average of 304, a vast improvement, below the AL, is unlikely since the Sox defense plays a role in determining the outcome.
DLowe can improve his BB and HR rates. They are much worst than last season and his entire career. From 1998-2001 as a relief pitcher, Lowe’s BB rate was .285 and HR rate of .06 in 414 innings. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that Lowe’s 2002 BB and HR rates were not flukes and we should be seeing BB and HR rates in 2003 similar or slightly higher than his career numbers.
As you can see, DLowe’s BB rate has jumped 57% over last season and his HR rate nearly doubled. I do not know if Lowe’s problem is mental (cancer scare, no pitching coach, added pressure from last seasons Cy Young type season), physical (his mechanics/release point is not consistent) or both. I do know that DLowe has two months to improve or RSN can forgetabout playing deep into October.
Some weeks ago, I was telling a couple of friends that I really have unrealistic expectations of Nomar and Pedro. I want the Nomar and Pedro in their primes at ages 26-28 during the 1999 and 2000 seasons. They were nearly flawless. Nomar hit around 365/425/600 and Pedro had an 8.5 K/BB ratio and struck out twelve per nine while occasionally going the distance of a ballgame. Neither is producing as they did, but both are still among the elite. I realized that I have the same impractical expectations for Theo and is part of my disappointment in the acquisition of Jeff Suppan. Suppan is definitely an upgrade over Mendoza, but I was hoping for Javy Vazquez and would have had better feelings about Sidney Ponson or Kelvin Escobar. All of the aforementioned are strikeout pitchers who would have minimized the Sox’s greatest weakness – fielding. Suppan is a younger and slightly better John Burkett. We of Red Sox Nation should not be as excited as most of the mainstream media has been about this deal.
The Pirates, asserting Lyon was damaged goods (contrary to Boston's findings), sought compensation from the Sox, and the teams negotiated until early yesterday morning, with Epstein also seeking Suppan from Pittsburgh GM Dave Littlefield (Hohler, Boston Globe).
The word out of the Pirates camp was that they were seeking either Freddy Sanchez or Kelly Shoppach as compensation. John Sickels’, from espn.com, thoughts on Sanchez…
Based on his minor-league numbers, he projects as a .280-.310 hitter at the major-league level, with a fine on-base percentage and plenty of doubles. A normal growth curve would make him a potential batting champion down the line, although at this point of his career the word potential must be emphasized.
Sanchez should be a productive everyday infielder at a low cost over the next three seasons allowing the Sox to potentially spend in other areas. These players do not grow on trees, at least not on the Sox farm. This sentiment was echoed by Lucky Larry when he said something to the affect that he would have to hold a gun to Theo's head to trade Freddy. Perhaps, Littlefield was holding the gun and Theo had another pointed at the Sox medical staff.
It was reported that Theo did not have any other dance partners so this was the best available deal for a starter. It was also pushed along to make the prior deal “whole.” Theo did not want the Lyon medical issue resolved by a third party. After breaking an unwritten rule by claiming Millar off waivers, some GMs must not have been looking very favorably on the new 29 year-old GM from Beantown. Theo did not want the fraternity to view him in a negative light again. He needs to have a good working relationship with the other 29 GMs.
All things considered, this was not a bad deal (I am disappointed that the minor leaguers went back to their original clubs. Gonzalez has more upside than a Martinez), I was just looking for more because…
…Lowe has been horrible as a #2 starter for a playoff contender. The chart below lists the complete AL stats in 2003, Lowe in 2003 and 2002 through July. It does not include Lowe’s crappy start on Saturday.
AL 03 02
BB/IN 0.353 0.343 0.219
SO/IN 0.679 0.552 0.580
HR/IN 0.125 0.104 0.055
BABIP 0.291 0.309 0.235
DLowe should be better than AL pitchers in three out of the four critical pitching statistics (BA BIP is batting average for ball in play). As you can see, he is below the AL in strikeouts, but not much off his 2002 pace. BA BIP is above the AL and much higher than his 2002 season. DLowe was extremely fortunate in 2002. We could anticipate that Lowe would have another BA BIP of 235 in 2003, especially with less range on the right side of the infield. Given the Sox’s overall average of 304, a vast improvement, below the AL, is unlikely since the Sox defense plays a role in determining the outcome.
DLowe can improve his BB and HR rates. They are much worst than last season and his entire career. From 1998-2001 as a relief pitcher, Lowe’s BB rate was .285 and HR rate of .06 in 414 innings. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that Lowe’s 2002 BB and HR rates were not flukes and we should be seeing BB and HR rates in 2003 similar or slightly higher than his career numbers.
As you can see, DLowe’s BB rate has jumped 57% over last season and his HR rate nearly doubled. I do not know if Lowe’s problem is mental (cancer scare, no pitching coach, added pressure from last seasons Cy Young type season), physical (his mechanics/release point is not consistent) or both. I do know that DLowe has two months to improve or RSN can forgetabout playing deep into October.
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