El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

I mean
one half step too late or to early
you don't quite make it.
One half second too slow or too fast
and you don't quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in every break of the game
every minute, every second.

Even though this pre-game speech from Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday is about football, it is applicable to baseball as well. Yesterday’s game was a perfect example. Burkett getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, Ferris’ ground rule double and Nomie’s third strike call to name a few. If the Sox got those inches, we could be talking about a great road trip winning four of seven from the best in the west. Of course we are not, but the post-season is still within reach. (Check out the new link to the right - baseballprosectus.com calculates each team’s second season’s probability.)

Tony Massarotti from the Boston Herald sums up the critical road trip well.
Let the doomsayers do all the grousing and grumbling they want today, but the rational thinkers (if there are any) recognize that what happened in California and Washington in the past seven days is exactly what should have happened. It was not what could have happened and not what the Red Sox wanted to happen, but it was the most probable outcome of seven games in Oakland and Seattle.

Combined, the A's and Mariners are 83-48 at home this season, a winning percentage of .634. They have the two best pitching staffs in the American League (Oakland first, Seattle second). In seven days, the Sox faced a collection of starters that included Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Jamie Moyer, Joel Pineiro and Freddy Garcia, who are a combined 74-47 this year and an aggregate 201 games better than .500 for their careers.

Now the tables get turned. Oakland and Seattle head back east to play seven at Fenway. The Red Sox have a 672 winning percentage at home (second only to Oaktown). The Sox sluggers really come alive at home with a 937 OPS compared to 778 away from Fenway. It would be great for the Old Town Team to go on tear over the next couple of weeks.

The Red Sox have history has not been kind to Boston's offensive juggernauts. The 1950 Red Sox starting lineup batted .313. The entire team hit .302, but finished in third place. The 1977 Sox hit a club record 213 homers, but finished tied for second, behind the World Champion Yankees. (Shaughnessy, Boston Globe).

I understand that Shaughnessy profits from continuing to use Red Sox history as a way to explain and/or predict current Sox ball. It makes for interesting conversation, but most of the time it is completely irrational. In the example above, no player from 1950 or 1977 is on the current club or on any other club (besides a couple and I believe none in the A.L.). Are the Managers, Coaches, General Managers the same? Not too many of them if at all. Thus, how does the cited history impact the current club as Shaughnessy insinuates? It does not. Oh wait; it must be the Curse of the Bambino. And what do you know; Shaughnessy has sold many of books by the same title.