Wednesday, September 09, 2009
The following is from Adam Kilgore on the Red Sox Extra Bases “blog.”
That’s six games against baseball’s best [Yankees and Angels], and 19 games against the American League’s true dregs. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .466; on average, that equates to the Sox playing a 75-win team based on 162 games) 25 times.
They [Rangers] get to play the Indians three times, including twice today, and the Athletics three times. But they have to play the Angels seven times and the Mariners six times. The average winning percentage of their remaining opponents is .510; on average; the Rangers will play an 83-win team 26 times.
But with less than a month left and the Sox still vying with the Rangers, they have an easier path to the playoffs than their main competition.
“Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.”
First off, I'm not sure on Kilgore's math. Second, even if we agree that winning % is the best measure of a team's ability rather than run differential, then the comparison should be a weighted average based on games. Third, the Sox calc should NOT EXCLUDE the NYY and LAA. To be fair, Kilgore could have used a WAvg, included NYY and LAA and he or I just did the arithmetic incorrectly, but that does not seem to be the case.
Regardless, using a WAvg based on run differential and # of games to play as the data points to calculate winning %, excluding yesterday/Tuesday, put the Sox opponents at 495 v. 508 for the Rangers. The Sox do NOT have a significantly easier schedule than the Rangers going forward.
The most pressing issue is the offensive’s lack of production on the road. If the Rangers hang close through next week and Sox can’t score away from Fenway, then it is going to be a dog fight in the final week of the season.