Thursday, January 29, 2009
Both Red Sox boston.com blogs have advocated signing Adam Dunn. As a stat-head, it is a requirement to like Dunn so El Guapo's Ghost is on the bandwagon too. With his price apparently coming down, Dunn would be nice lineup insurance for a number of hitters. But the outlook of each party would have to change before we see the slugger in Boston.
Dunn's camp would need to conclude that next year's sluggers market will have greater supply than this winter's. Carlos Delgado, Jason Bay, Rick Ankiel, Vlad, and Holliday are likely to be available. Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Jermaine Dye and Mags Ordonez could join them as well. Teams could have more options next year, which should depress prices even if the economy improves. Of the potential free agent class next winter, Dunn is arguably the most one-dimensional player of the group, albeit incredibly consistent, at a time when the market appears to be shifting back to more athletic multi-tooled players. A two-year plus contract could be the best possible option for only a dual tool player.
For the Sox to have interest in Dunn, Bay inking an extension would have to be remote. Even though playing 81 games in front of the Monster decreases the defensive value of a Sox leftfielder, Bay is still a better player than the Big Donkey. Second, the Olde Towne Team would only want a leftfielder through 2010 and they think it is going to be tough to sign any of the other options above to only a one-year deal.
The above scenario is plausible, but the Sox would probably need to offer Dunn more than a Pat Burrell type contract - $18 million over two years. More realistic is that Dunn signs with one of the clubs that doesn’t get Manny.