Sunday, December 07, 2008
Keith Law, former Toronto Blue Jay Special Assistant to the General Manager, in the video above tells us the basic thought process regarding the signing of free agents. The question is how many additional wins will Player X produce and those wins will bring in $Y millions. The club’s contract offer should be less than the $Y millions, in most cases. And the volatility in the economy is making it very difficult to forecast $Y millions for teams.
It appears Milwaukee Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said so much to the most underrated Boston media member, Nick Cafardo.
"We're in a situation where the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays have had to lay off employees. So we have to be mindful of that. There are projections we made a few weeks ago that have already changed. There's that, and also the fact that there are teams who spent south of $100 million on their payroll who made the playoffs and played in the World Series."
With attendance being the most variable and vulnerable revenue stream, the Red Sox stand to gain an advantage over other teams as their $Y million projection has a higher level of confidence than their competitors. The Sox sell out record indicates that demand for tickets is great than supply giving them less of a projection range than any other club.
The stumbling economy should provide the Sox with the opportunity to be even more aggressive than normal. With this in mind, the Olde Towne Team should either make a big splash (Sabathia, Teixeira) or wait for bargains after the holiday season. But no middle ground - just say no to D-Lowe, Burnett, etc.