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Monday, July 28, 2008


By now, everyone knows that Manny will not object to a trade. Since the Sox will unlikely move Manny to another A.L. team, many contending N.L. clubs are set at the corner outfield spots and Sports Illustrated has ruled out the most obvious destination - the Mets, it leaves the West Coast Red Sox or Frank McCourt’s Dodgers.

The Dodgers are playing Juan Pierre and the 520 OPS hitting Andruw Jones. At only a game back, Manny could push them into the playoffs. But the Sox would not get anything to help them this season from the Dodgers so another deal would to be completed to fill the void left by Manny and that guy is Adam Dunn.

Dunn is underrated due to his poor batting average, high strikeouts, weak glove work and questionable attitude. But his ability to get on base and incredible power is undeniable. Dunn’s Baseball Reference OPS+ 138 - Manny’s is 140. Baseball Prospectus’ EQA for Dunn is 314 and Manny is 305 and both are within their PECOTA projections. They are producing evenly and as predicted. Dunn could fill most of Manny’s shoes this season. And he could be had for the equivalent of draft picks as the demand for the soon-to-be free agent slugger is apparently low according to reports.

Even if a complicated three-way deal gets done, Manny will likely hold everything up to negotiate a contract extension with the new team a la Jonah Santana this past winter. Not knowing where he is going to play or get paid next year seems to be causing Manny’s anxiety. Getting a trade in place gives Manny an opportunity to resolve his contract issue. Essentially, it would be a four-way negotiation. And aint gonna happen.


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