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Tuesday, February 19, 2008


Even though Nick Cafardo didn’t reply to my email on Joe Blanton a couple of weeks ago, which is okay - he is likely busy and is still the most underrated sports writer in Boston. Anyway, Cafardo in his notes column asked the follow questions about the Sox:

Taking Curt Schilling (shoulder) out of the mix doesn't help, but we'll see how much it hurts. Big question as to whether the kid pitchers - Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester - are ready to assume a 180- to 200-inning load. Will Manny Delcarmen be able to share the setup role with Hideki Okajima? And, of course, how will the Sox solve the Coco Crisp-Jacoby Ellsbury riddle?

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA can give some insight into the Cafardo’s questions.

PECOTA does not think we need to necessarily solve the centerfield puzzle. The system forecasts the pair as equals. Coco with a bit more power and Ellsbury gets on-base a little more often. The presence of both allows the Sox to have a competent replacement for Manny, as the system projects him to only get 581 PAs.

PECOTA also projects Oki and Delcarmen as equals. Hence, the young Manny can hand the ball over to Papelbon.

The projection system sees the rotation as a cloudier situation. We’ll tackle that in the next post.


If Obama wins Ohio, it should be over. Clinton winning the swing state gives her a logical argument to convince super delegates that McCain can not beat the former First Lady. She can carry Kerry's 251 less NH, MN plus OH, AR, and Iowa with Vilsack on the ticket. The math gives her 270 and the highest office in the land.

That's a bumper sticker to get behind, right?!


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