Monday, December 17, 2007
Vince Gennaro: A quick follow up to my comment on a potential Lester or Hughes trade for Santana. The points you mention at the end that would go into an evaluation of a trade are exactly right. After further reflecting on a potential Lester trade, I overlooked the reality that all his lost time to due his illness counts for ML service time. While we won't know until the end of the 2008 season, it is possible that he will be arbitration eligible in 2009, as a "Super 2", if he's in the highest 17% of 2+ year ML players...worst case is arb eligible in 2010. Also, in my thinking, I was implying that Lester is ultimately a #2 starter, which may have been a bit ambitious. So, short of doing all the math (including Santana's performance and marquee value estimates) this is probably at least a debatable trade, with legitimate pros and cons on both sides.