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Sunday, November 25, 2007


The combination of league minimum players and prospects plus a six year $120 million contract is too costly for Johan Santana. We know about the young talent needed to land Santana, but there are chinks in his armor.

Even though his stuff and numbers are outstanding, Santana’s peripheral statistics are trending in the wrong direction, which could be an indication that he is starting to slip. He is moving out of an baseball player’s common peak years. The Twins have always babied Santana and as he ages durability has to be more of a question. Even if he still pitches well over the six years, a flyball/homer prone southpaw at Fenway is a troubling proposition.

Waiting a year for the younger, less flyball/homer prone, and only costing a first-round pick, C.C. Sabathia is the better option. And for this year, Rich Harden will fit in just fine after participating in Papelbon’s shoulder strengthening program.


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