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Friday, June 01, 2007


But put a big chunk of the kid’s college fund on the Sox winning the A.L. East. Okay, that’s not big news with the Local Nine up ten games and thirteen and half on the MFY (We don’t need to bring the A.L. East’s second class teams into the discussion). This may be: Even if the MFY win all nine remaining head-to-head games, the Bronx Bastards still would have a difficult time winning the division.

Based on Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA team projections and adjusting for Rogah, the MFY’s winning percentage is 59.17% from here on out, which projects them to 87.69 wins (59.17% * 111 games + 22 wins). Obviously, the system sees the MFY playing better baseball. They put the Sox at a 57.09% clip, so it thinks the good guys have been playing above their collective heads. Doing the same math, the Sox look like a 98.80 win team.

Since the two team’s projected winning percentages are so close, both clubs are forecast to win four and half games of the nine head-to-head. If we take away the Sox four and half wins and put them into the MFY column, the good guys would still be better by over two games. It’s not a ton of breathing room, but everything needs to go right for the MFY to just get within striking distance. And right now that looks highly unlikely (knock on wood).


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