Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Now onto the other half of the ledger - pitching. As older readers know, I’m not a fan of E.R.A., although it is listed here. The stat is below because it is the best indicator BP has projected for runs allowed. Starters are today and relievers probably Thursday or Friday since I‘ll be at Dice-K‘s game.
PITCHER - IN - ERA - K/BB - HR
* Curt Schilling - 200 - 3.84 - 160/37 - 23
Based on last season, the K/BB and HR numbers are reasonable but the runs prevented seems a bit low with declining peripherals. It would appear that BP predicts that the Sox glove work will be better than last year…well at least in the outfield.
* Daisuke Matsuzaka - 200 - 3.83 - 176/55 - 20
Your guess is as good as mine but this looks about right based on the scouting reports and his first day of work.
* Josh Beckett - 180 - 4.29 - 142/62 - 20
PECOTA foresees an up tick in Beckett’s K/BB ratio on both ends with the big improvement in HR allowed. The 180 innings seems low, but reasonable with Beckett’s history of blister problems in Miami. PECOTA does not account for Beckett’s apparent change in approach and attitude to getting A.L. hitters out. The forecast is conservative.
* Tim Wakefield - 160 - 4.59 - 99/58 - 21
PECOTA is wrong on this one. It likely sees a 40 year old pitcher that had a tough year in 2006. The system thinks he lost it. It does not account for the fact that Wake had a weird pitching injury that should not be a liability in the future and that he is a knuckleball pitcher. He really does not have any comparables. Wake should project as 180 - 4.10 - 120/60 - 28
* Julian Tavares - 95 - 5.60 - 53/34 - 10
Tavares’ projection is just a bit better than I could do. If this is going to be his level of production, as it was this past weekend, then get Tavares the hell off the mound.
* Jon Lester - 90 - 5.00 - 73/44 - 10
Last year in RI, Lester’s K/BB was 8.4/4.9 and in the Show 6.75/4.8 with a 4.76 E.R.A. PECOTA is projecting an improved K/BB per nine of 7.3/4.4, but a higher E.R.A. 5.00. Basically, Lester was lucky last season and that probably won’t hold true again in 2007. The young southpaw is far from a finished product. He needs much better control and command. Hopefully, the Sox allow him more time in RI to work on just that, as well as, further developing either his change or cutter. Lester has great potential but he was rushed last season. The Sox should not make that same mistake or he may never become the top of rotation starter many see him as in the coming years.
* Kyle Synder - 50 - 4.95 - 56/22 - 10
Synder’s projection looks about right although it should be in the pen. Devern Hansack should get a shot at the fifth spot. The lobsterman looked great in the spring and dominated in one start in RI. Hansack deserves a chance.
Nothing shocking - the Sox fifth spot in the rotation is a big hole. Unfortunately, Jon Lester is probably not the answer in 2007. Devern Hansack could fill that role. If he continues to dominate AAA, he should be given a chance to succeed or maybe it is Rogah.