Wednesday, February 28, 2007
With many preparing for their fantasy drafts and not trying to give too much away to my competition, here is a roto tips double play:
1. BA/WHIP/ERA and all average categories are weighted averages. Hence, Ichiro’s 300 BA over 650 AB is more valuable than Big Papi’s 300 BA over 550 AB. It is even more important when trying to understand the value between closers and starters…and a lot more complicated. Not all averages are equal in fantasy baseball.
2. In general, the value of a hitter versus a pitcher is dependent upon the number of offensive versus pitching categories. If you play in the standard 5X5 league (R,HR,RBI,SB,BA,W,SV,K,ERA,WHIP) and have nine hitter positions and seven pitcher positions, a pitcher is more valuable than a hitter. One pitcher is worth .71 (5 categories / 7 pitchers) versus one hitter .56 (5 / 9). It gets more complex on the pitching side when you factor in that starters do not record saves, even the best relievers normally pitch half the number of innings of an average starter (see above), any maximum or minimum inning requirements, rotating starters and bench depth.
Since most of the hundreds of fantasy baseball magazines fail to mention these two basic principles, it is not wise to solely rely upon them to guide you through the draft. The first concept is easy to implement into your draft board and at least understanding (in most leagues, all things being equal go with the pitcher) the second should give you an advantage on draft day. But at a minimum, it is important to make a mental note of the underlying assumptions that are the basis for your magazine’s rankings and adjust according to you league.
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