Friday, August 25, 2006
Even with back-to-back victories on the left coast, the Sox have a slim shot at October baseball. Statistically speaking, between a 8-10% chance. At some point, I'll get around to analyzing the process behind each major Sox decision since October 2004 and how it got us to this point, but for now on to the top prospects.
Exihibit #1 on the differences between the stats v. scouting camps is Dustin Pedroia, who is now up with the local nine. As I said before, the big variance is on D.P.'s rank not on his big league projection. D.P. should have a long career similar to Mark Loretta - a 300/360/400 hitter with solid defense. At a minimum salary over the next three seasons, D.P. will be an huge asset with his value diminishing as his wages increase.
Jacob Ellsbury profiles like D.P. at the plate - a high contact/average hitter with 50 BB and very limited power - and as a middle of the diamond position player, Ellsbury can be an asset. He needs to prove himself in AAA before the talk about Coco moving to left. Without a threat of going deep, Ellsbury will get challenged more in AAA, since many pitchers have spent time in the bigs and know how to exploit a player's potential weakness.
The PawSox current centerfielder, David Murphy, has me rethinking my earlier projection that he would be a first round bust. Murphy could be a late bloomer at 24. Perhaps, everything at the plate just clicked for him this year. He is hitting 273/366/457, but most impressive is 184 isolated power (SLG - AVG). Since entering the Sox system, the first rounder always had good knowledge of the strike zone, but never developed the power that scouts saw from his tall, lanky frame...that could all be changing. Murphy could earn a spot in Boston as a platoon partner/defensive replacement - his glove work has never been questioned - next season.
On Monday, I’ll post on the progress of the best prospects in the system, and then an update on the boys in Lowell. The pair has the most upside of anyone. Both pitchers are from last year's draft and one I disapproved of, so far I'm wrong.