Wednesday, July 19, 2006
YOUR “ON NOTICE”
The Colbert Report is "brilliant!” But I do believe Stephen stole the phrase “ [fill in the name] is dead to me” from Tony Soprano. I guess no one can take “truthiness” from Stephen, although I am going to borrow his “On Notice” list. Theo Epstein, your “On Notice” for guarantying Josh Beckett $30 million.
Theo’s public rationale for the in-season signing.
"He had one more year under our control anyway," Epstein added. "I think you started to see last year that sometimes free agent contracts for pitchers can get a little bit out of control and as a five-plus [year] player, Josh might have the benefit of comparing himself to those free agents. If we were able to get to a deal we were comfortable with, we thought now was the time because we didn't want anyone to change the market for us."
It appears that Theo wanted to avoid Josh Beckett being awarded around a $10 million contract for the 2007 season. (The four largest contracts signed last winter by starters - Burnett, Morris, Washburn and Millwood - totaled $179.5 million for 17 years. The average deal was for $44.875 million over 4.25 years, and about $10.5 million per year.) Theo accomplished his objective - Beckett is to be paid $6 million in 2007. Unfortunately, he committed $30 million over the next three seasons. Basically, the Sox paid the market annual average rate. The only benefit the club received was less of a commitment in year(s), and of course, dollars, which may not even come to fruition with the possibility of a fourth year option vesting. The club gained nothing in yearly payroll flexibility.
The Sox are assuming all of the risk in this deal when they had all of the leverage. The Sox own Beckett for another season. The risks are:
*Beckett will never be able to get over his blister issue (limiting his ability to threw his curveball between starts),
*His shoulder could become a real problem,
*He could suffer another injury,
*Beckett will never be able to dominate the A.L.
The only reason the Sox should have offered Beckett a multi-year deal is at a significant discount, since they would be assuming all of the risk. This is a terrible deal even if you are bullish on Josh Beckett. In Theo, We Trust, right? But you are “On Notice.”
The Colbert Report is "brilliant!” But I do believe Stephen stole the phrase “ [fill in the name] is dead to me” from Tony Soprano. I guess no one can take “truthiness” from Stephen, although I am going to borrow his “On Notice” list. Theo Epstein, your “On Notice” for guarantying Josh Beckett $30 million.
Theo’s public rationale for the in-season signing.
"He had one more year under our control anyway," Epstein added. "I think you started to see last year that sometimes free agent contracts for pitchers can get a little bit out of control and as a five-plus [year] player, Josh might have the benefit of comparing himself to those free agents. If we were able to get to a deal we were comfortable with, we thought now was the time because we didn't want anyone to change the market for us."
It appears that Theo wanted to avoid Josh Beckett being awarded around a $10 million contract for the 2007 season. (The four largest contracts signed last winter by starters - Burnett, Morris, Washburn and Millwood - totaled $179.5 million for 17 years. The average deal was for $44.875 million over 4.25 years, and about $10.5 million per year.) Theo accomplished his objective - Beckett is to be paid $6 million in 2007. Unfortunately, he committed $30 million over the next three seasons. Basically, the Sox paid the market annual average rate. The only benefit the club received was less of a commitment in year(s), and of course, dollars, which may not even come to fruition with the possibility of a fourth year option vesting. The club gained nothing in yearly payroll flexibility.
The Sox are assuming all of the risk in this deal when they had all of the leverage. The Sox own Beckett for another season. The risks are:
*Beckett will never be able to get over his blister issue (limiting his ability to threw his curveball between starts),
*His shoulder could become a real problem,
*He could suffer another injury,
*Beckett will never be able to dominate the A.L.
The only reason the Sox should have offered Beckett a multi-year deal is at a significant discount, since they would be assuming all of the risk. This is a terrible deal even if you are bullish on Josh Beckett. In Theo, We Trust, right? But you are “On Notice.”