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Wednesday, May 31, 2006


One of my earliest memories as a Red Sox fan, along with Yaz’s last game at Fenway and baseball sticker books, was reading that Roger Clemens struck out twenty in game. Now, the lying, overweight, former MFY could be coming back to the Sox because they stand the most to gain on the field and financially by signing the once upon a time Blue Jay mercenary.

The future independent league pitcher, Matt Clement, is the reason the Sox will likely offer more millions to Rogah. If Clement continues on his current path of terribleness, he will put up below replacement level production (think worse than Frank Castillo back in 2002). Clemens’ PECOTA projected improvement over Clement is worth three wins. Even though it is early, Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds Report has the Sox missing the playoffs with 92.7 wins. The three win improvement that Rogah would provide puts the Olde Towne Team in the postseason for the fourth straight season.

Financially, Vince Gennaro in 2006 Red Sox Annual, estimates that for the Sox going from a range of 87-92 wins to 92-97 wins would generate an additional $10.5 million. Gennaro does not show the marginal revenue for a fourth straight postseason appearance, but based on my guesstimate it would bring in $5.9 million. Hence, it is reasonable, based on the above on-field and financial forecast, that the Sox could offer Clemens $16.4 million for less than four months of work.

The MFY would gain two wins over Chacon with Clemens. It would put them at 96.3 wins from 94. Gennaro’s study indicates that the MFY would gain over $14 million from moving into the 92 to 97 win category, but the addition of Clemens would not move them into another “win bucket.” It is also likely that with all of the MFY consecutive postseason appearances, they would not gain any marginal revenue from playing October baseball. Given Gennaro’s analysis, the MFY, at most, could offset Clemens’ salary with $14 million in additional revenue.

It does appear that the Red Sox are in the best rationale position to offer the future HOFer the most cash - Houston isn’t even in the same league as the Sox and MFY and Texass is out of it. But the most hated man in sports/MFY owner is not always practical. If things play out as outlined above, Roger Clemens will again be a Red Sox because his ego won’t allow him to sign for less money. He not only wants to known as the greatest pitcher to ever live, but the highest paid for three months of work. This contract will end any debate on the greatest of all-time in those closed door meetings each summer in Cooperstown.


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