Thursday, April 13, 2006
MIXED REVIEW
The Sox signing of Coco Crisp is a win-win for both parties. Crisp gets financial security for the rest of his life, and in return, he gives up the possibly a few million more per season if he was eligible for arbitration and potentially a year before netting a huge payday via free agency. And now Coco should have no trouble getting a mortgage for a pad worthy of a segment on Cribs. We’ll all benefit from that.
From the Sox point of view, they get Coco at a discount; have some cost certainty over the next three, potentially four years, at very tough position to fill. The one troubling part of this deal is the possibility of Coco's broken finger having a negative long-term affect on his production at the plate. Anytime someone has a hand or wrist injury, it is concerning because of Nomar. Assuming Coco will be fine, it is a nice deal for each party unlike Big Papi’s new contract.
Over the next four years, my projection has David Ortiz earning $44M. It is calculated by taking a weighted average of his most similar players’ production for their age 31-34 seasons, and then translating those levels of production into dollars based on Paul Konerko’s historical production and the contract he signed last winter (if you are interested in the details, shot me an email). Overpaying by six million over four years is not that much money - it is in the ballpark - but the Sox should have gotten a better deal.
Even if the Sox projection of Ortiz has him earning $50M over 2007-2010, they made a mistake because the club had all of the leverage with the 2007 option. The Sox did not need to pay market price for Ortiz. The 2008 market for Ortiz’s services is unlikely to be greater than $12.5M, even with each club’s greater revenue streams from T.V., mlb.com, and the Nationals sale. Right now only the O’s, and maybe Detroit and Seattle would have a spot and the budget for a 32 year-old $12.5M D.H. The Sox should have gotten more of a discount than no buyout in 2011. They have taken on all of the risk and it was not necessary.
From what I have seen (i.e. Pedro, Damon, Nomar) and read over the past three years is that both Larry and Theo are not sentimental when it comes to making business decisions. Larry said something like we can't fall in love with our veterans...I made this mistake in S.D. So with Henry and Werner at the Ortiz press conference, it leads me to think that ownership was driving his deal not management. It looks like ownership gave Big Papi a bonus for overachieving the last three years, which is their prerogative, but the back end of the Ortiz deal better not stop them from making a big move to acquire the future anchor of the lineup.
On the bright side, I can go and buy a Big Papi jersey now. I’ve been waiting for this signing. I wanted to know that I can amortize the $200 over five seasons. It makes the investment more palatable.
The Sox signing of Coco Crisp is a win-win for both parties. Crisp gets financial security for the rest of his life, and in return, he gives up the possibly a few million more per season if he was eligible for arbitration and potentially a year before netting a huge payday via free agency. And now Coco should have no trouble getting a mortgage for a pad worthy of a segment on Cribs. We’ll all benefit from that.
From the Sox point of view, they get Coco at a discount; have some cost certainty over the next three, potentially four years, at very tough position to fill. The one troubling part of this deal is the possibility of Coco's broken finger having a negative long-term affect on his production at the plate. Anytime someone has a hand or wrist injury, it is concerning because of Nomar. Assuming Coco will be fine, it is a nice deal for each party unlike Big Papi’s new contract.
Over the next four years, my projection has David Ortiz earning $44M. It is calculated by taking a weighted average of his most similar players’ production for their age 31-34 seasons, and then translating those levels of production into dollars based on Paul Konerko’s historical production and the contract he signed last winter (if you are interested in the details, shot me an email). Overpaying by six million over four years is not that much money - it is in the ballpark - but the Sox should have gotten a better deal.
Even if the Sox projection of Ortiz has him earning $50M over 2007-2010, they made a mistake because the club had all of the leverage with the 2007 option. The Sox did not need to pay market price for Ortiz. The 2008 market for Ortiz’s services is unlikely to be greater than $12.5M, even with each club’s greater revenue streams from T.V., mlb.com, and the Nationals sale. Right now only the O’s, and maybe Detroit and Seattle would have a spot and the budget for a 32 year-old $12.5M D.H. The Sox should have gotten more of a discount than no buyout in 2011. They have taken on all of the risk and it was not necessary.
From what I have seen (i.e. Pedro, Damon, Nomar) and read over the past three years is that both Larry and Theo are not sentimental when it comes to making business decisions. Larry said something like we can't fall in love with our veterans...I made this mistake in S.D. So with Henry and Werner at the Ortiz press conference, it leads me to think that ownership was driving his deal not management. It looks like ownership gave Big Papi a bonus for overachieving the last three years, which is their prerogative, but the back end of the Ortiz deal better not stop them from making a big move to acquire the future anchor of the lineup.
On the bright side, I can go and buy a Big Papi jersey now. I’ve been waiting for this signing. I wanted to know that I can amortize the $200 over five seasons. It makes the investment more palatable.
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Thank you - Red Sox!
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