Friday, March 10, 2006
Since the Jays had a major overhaul, it is difficult to use last season’s record as the starting point to projecting their 2006 win total. Thankfully, PECOTA’s team forecasts came out. It has the Jays at 78 wins, which is down from both their actual and Pythagorean wins in 2005. PECOTA foresees a big drop off in run prevention without any increase in offensive production; runs against goes from 705 up to 786.
The system sees Chacin as the major culprit with his E.R.A. going from 3.72 to 4.85. He out performed his peripherals last season and with the Jays less rangy infield, it appears to be a recipe for disaster. But *all* hope should not be lost north of the border.
If the Jays have a few breakout performances, the club can reasonably reach 83 wins. An above 500 record gives any club a shot at the postseason and the A.L. East, although it will be a very tough uphill climb.
Before any adjustments, PECOTA has the Sox at 90 wins and the MFY at 92, so the Jays will need to get lucky – multiple times. The Jays need to stay healthy (the entire rotation has been red lighted), win a large percentage of one-run games, and win most of their 38 games against the big boys to be in the race. It is possible, but unlikely, and is an extremely risky (i.e. costly) strategy that might only bring the Jays nice headlines when coats and gloves are necessary attire in Toronto.