Tuesday, March 21, 2006
…AND KNOWING IS HALF THE BATTLE
Wily Mo Pena is all about what he could be in the future. Everyone has drooled over his classic five-tool ability, but his plate discipline is horrible and he has yet to translate his raw ability into production. Hopefully, the defense will come, but it is all about Pena’s bat.
''Our farm system is really starting to come around, but we don't have a lot of power. He just turned 24 last month, and he has as much power as anyone in the big leagues."
As Theo stated, Pena is here for his power and the systems lack thereof. Only Luis Soto, who is years away, could project into a 30+ homer guy in the show. (Soto is the most underrated prospect in the system; he should be talked about in the next breath as Ellsbury and Lowrie). Pena’s undeniable power could lead to a breakout season in 2006.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system is extremely bullish on Pena in 2006. It sees him hitting 283/346/566 in 382 appearances or around a 13% increase in production over 2005. PECOTA also gives Pena a 53% chance at exceeding his 2006 projection by 20% or better with only an 11% shot at falling of the table. It foresees Pena has a 290/360/590 hitter in 2007-2009. The Sox control Pena through 2008.
It is difficult to be as optimist as PECOTA. Although Pena only needs to be a bit more patient, especially early in the count, to increase his walk numbers. Due to his great power, Pena will get intimidation walks when ahead in the count. Pitchers will not want to grove one to Pena as they would to a Pokey Reese type. If he can show just modest ability not to chase, he’ll get some BBs and develop into a much more productive hitter.
Pena’s best comparable; Jesse Barfield did it at the same age. At 23, Barfield hit 253/296/510 with a BB/K ratio of 22/110 in only 388 at-bats. The following season, he hit 284/357/466 with a ratio of 35/81 in 320 appearances. He broke out in the next two years putting up lines of 290/370/550 with 68/145 in 550 abs. Pena could follow this path or one taken by the other player to show up on both BP and Baseball Reference's comparable list Pete Incaviglia. Yuk.
Fortunately, Pena is knowledgeable on his issue at the plate and is making progress.
Pena walked out of the cage and said, "Last year I might have swung at all four of those pitches, which weren't good pitches. This year? Patience, my friend, patience."
Pena is a risk, but one worth taking with his upside, the lack of a future power threat and the cost - Arroyo was redundant and expensive for the Sox. Hopefully, Pena will develop into another Barfield or better.
Wily Mo Pena is all about what he could be in the future. Everyone has drooled over his classic five-tool ability, but his plate discipline is horrible and he has yet to translate his raw ability into production. Hopefully, the defense will come, but it is all about Pena’s bat.
''Our farm system is really starting to come around, but we don't have a lot of power. He just turned 24 last month, and he has as much power as anyone in the big leagues."
As Theo stated, Pena is here for his power and the systems lack thereof. Only Luis Soto, who is years away, could project into a 30+ homer guy in the show. (Soto is the most underrated prospect in the system; he should be talked about in the next breath as Ellsbury and Lowrie). Pena’s undeniable power could lead to a breakout season in 2006.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system is extremely bullish on Pena in 2006. It sees him hitting 283/346/566 in 382 appearances or around a 13% increase in production over 2005. PECOTA also gives Pena a 53% chance at exceeding his 2006 projection by 20% or better with only an 11% shot at falling of the table. It foresees Pena has a 290/360/590 hitter in 2007-2009. The Sox control Pena through 2008.
It is difficult to be as optimist as PECOTA. Although Pena only needs to be a bit more patient, especially early in the count, to increase his walk numbers. Due to his great power, Pena will get intimidation walks when ahead in the count. Pitchers will not want to grove one to Pena as they would to a Pokey Reese type. If he can show just modest ability not to chase, he’ll get some BBs and develop into a much more productive hitter.
Pena’s best comparable; Jesse Barfield did it at the same age. At 23, Barfield hit 253/296/510 with a BB/K ratio of 22/110 in only 388 at-bats. The following season, he hit 284/357/466 with a ratio of 35/81 in 320 appearances. He broke out in the next two years putting up lines of 290/370/550 with 68/145 in 550 abs. Pena could follow this path or one taken by the other player to show up on both BP and Baseball Reference's comparable list Pete Incaviglia. Yuk.
Fortunately, Pena is knowledgeable on his issue at the plate and is making progress.
Pena walked out of the cage and said, "Last year I might have swung at all four of those pitches, which weren't good pitches. This year? Patience, my friend, patience."
Pena is a risk, but one worth taking with his upside, the lack of a future power threat and the cost - Arroyo was redundant and expensive for the Sox. Hopefully, Pena will develop into another Barfield or better.
0 Old Comments:
Thank you - Red Sox!
This site is not associated with the Boston Red Sox, Major League Baseball nor Major League Players Assoication
© 2003-2010 Thomas J. Fratamico, III
All Rights Reserved
