El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING IN TAMPA

Tampa is a very interesting team. They have good young position talent, a potential ace and closer. The Rays have the makings of a contending club in 2007 and beyond, but they need to sort out who is going to be a part of the pig piles of the mound and who isn’t. They need to leverage the logjam in the OF and sort out the infielders NOW while they still hold a solid bargaining position in the market.

The first step is to commit to a position for B.J. Upton, and have him learn the position in practice at the major league level. Upton should be the Rays starting DH in April. His bat is legitimate after hitting 300/400/500 in Durham, again. Upton needs to be promoted or his hitting development may slow.

The hiring of Ozzie Smith and Jimy Williams looks like the Rays understand that Upton at shortstop gives them maximum value. This would seem to make Julio Lugo expendable, but Cantu could move to third with Lugo shifting to second. The Rays don’t have nearly as much infield organizational depth as in the outfield. Although Lugo has been reluctant to switch positions, a new contract could persuade him. This move would fill an organizational hole at the hot corner with Cantu. The other more conventional option is trading Lugo at the deadline.

The logjam in the OF is more complex with Crawford and Baldelli securing long-term deals. The Rays need to decide:

• Will Carl Crawford develop the plate discipline to become an impact leadoff hitter a la Rickey Henderson? If not, then is Crawford’s 300/330/450 with 40 SB in left with a reasonale contract worth more to another club than us, who could plug in Joey Gathwright and eventually, Delmon Young?

• Is Rocco Baldelli going to make it back? If so, will he still struggle with getting on-base? If he fails to reach 600 PA in 2006, is Baldelli more valuable to another club as a legit centerfielder? Is Joey Gathwright or down the road - Elijah Dukes - a better option, since both have displayed an ability to not be an automatic out?

Moving Crawford now could bring back the booty of young players (positional and pitchers) while freeing up future payroll. The Rays should also showcase Aubrey Huff at first, which means Travis Lee should be benched or released because Johnny Gomes has to be in right everyday. Huff should not be in the Rays long-term plans. He should be dealt, although the Rays don’t need to hold out of pitching prospects. No matter how hot Huff starts off, it is unlikely the Rays will net another Chuck Tiffany. (I foresaw a Shoppach-Huff deal if Lowell flopped this spring. Trading Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland, I guess is better than Kelly the ball girl.) The Rays just need to acquire value at any spot on the diamond in all transactions.

The Rays could be in the trade or free agent market for an A.J. Burnett type signing as the “final piece” before the 2008 seasons. The dollars saved by dealing Crawford and increased revenue from winning more games could bring a top of the rotation starter to pair with Kazmir. The Rays can do it. They are in the twelfth largest media market, and whose sports fans have supported a football team after a terrible history as well as an ice hockey club in Tampa. These many sports fans in the Tampa area will support a winner; the Rays just need to field one.