Tuesday, November 22, 2005
THE HOT STOVE IS HEATING UP LIKE A JOSH BECKETT FASTBALL
First the throw in, Mike Lowell, who’s stats aren’t terrible. He ended with a slight drop in his BB rate but with a drop in his K rate. He made contact and still has his above average batting eye. The big drop off was his isolated power to 124 from 212, 254, and 195. It is usual for a hitter to loose that much power in a season even old hitters rarely have that much of dive (they fail to make contact very often). I would check out his medical records maybe he was playing with an injury. If Lowell is healthy, he could be in for a comeback season hitting in Fenway. He is a natural pull hitter and a legit gold glover at the hot corner. Lowell-Petagine-Youk look like they will split time at the infield corners.
Regardless, Beckett is the big prize and question of the deal with his recurring blister problem (can the Sox staff control it like they did with DLowe), shoulder and back-to-back seasons with oblique strains. The medical reports and examine is key. On the positive side, at 25, he is out of the pitching injury nexus and has little wear on his arm. Mentally, Josh has reported feuded with his pitching coach and has gotten visibly angry out on the mound. But the upside is huge, as he enters and the Sox control him over a player’s traditionally prime years (age 26 and 27 seasons). Beckett could have slightly better command, but he is the real deal. Power pitchers with good control and/or strong G/F ratios are rare and have the potential to be real #1 starters. If Beckett can refine his changeup, he could become Roy Halladay with a better fastball or scary good!
On the balance sheet, it is not a terrible deal. The trio of Bellhorn, Millar and Mueller coming off the books is $8.35 million. They will likely be replaced by Pedrioa, Youkilis and Lowell at around $9.75 million. The $1.4 million difference is offset by the probable salary variance between Beckett and Wells.
The Sox gave up Hanley and Annibal Sanchez. I hate to see any Sanchez go (Freddy too); the loss of Dirty Sanchez references over a summer really hurts. Anyway, Hanley, relative to expectations, had a poor season in AA. His lack of plate discipline maybe starting to catch up with him now that he is advancing. Ramirez is starting to project as a utility speed guy. He is a risky prospect as well as Sanchez. Although he has already gone under the knife, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
Basically, the Sox dealt two risky B+ prospects for a medium-low risk #1 starter and $18 million liability. Hanley and Sanchez could be as good as a Beckett, but why wait and take the chance. The ability to take the sure thing is another luxury of a $100+ million payroll.
First the throw in, Mike Lowell, who’s stats aren’t terrible. He ended with a slight drop in his BB rate but with a drop in his K rate. He made contact and still has his above average batting eye. The big drop off was his isolated power to 124 from 212, 254, and 195. It is usual for a hitter to loose that much power in a season even old hitters rarely have that much of dive (they fail to make contact very often). I would check out his medical records maybe he was playing with an injury. If Lowell is healthy, he could be in for a comeback season hitting in Fenway. He is a natural pull hitter and a legit gold glover at the hot corner. Lowell-Petagine-Youk look like they will split time at the infield corners.
Regardless, Beckett is the big prize and question of the deal with his recurring blister problem (can the Sox staff control it like they did with DLowe), shoulder and back-to-back seasons with oblique strains. The medical reports and examine is key. On the positive side, at 25, he is out of the pitching injury nexus and has little wear on his arm. Mentally, Josh has reported feuded with his pitching coach and has gotten visibly angry out on the mound. But the upside is huge, as he enters and the Sox control him over a player’s traditionally prime years (age 26 and 27 seasons). Beckett could have slightly better command, but he is the real deal. Power pitchers with good control and/or strong G/F ratios are rare and have the potential to be real #1 starters. If Beckett can refine his changeup, he could become Roy Halladay with a better fastball or scary good!
On the balance sheet, it is not a terrible deal. The trio of Bellhorn, Millar and Mueller coming off the books is $8.35 million. They will likely be replaced by Pedrioa, Youkilis and Lowell at around $9.75 million. The $1.4 million difference is offset by the probable salary variance between Beckett and Wells.
The Sox gave up Hanley and Annibal Sanchez. I hate to see any Sanchez go (Freddy too); the loss of Dirty Sanchez references over a summer really hurts. Anyway, Hanley, relative to expectations, had a poor season in AA. His lack of plate discipline maybe starting to catch up with him now that he is advancing. Ramirez is starting to project as a utility speed guy. He is a risky prospect as well as Sanchez. Although he has already gone under the knife, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.
Basically, the Sox dealt two risky B+ prospects for a medium-low risk #1 starter and $18 million liability. Hanley and Sanchez could be as good as a Beckett, but why wait and take the chance. The ability to take the sure thing is another luxury of a $100+ million payroll.
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Thank you - Red Sox!
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