Wednesday, June 29, 2005
Regular readers know that I am a fairly reasonable Red Sox fan. During both Millar and Renteria’s prolonged slumps, I still supported both knowing that it was likely their performance would regress to the mean or track record. Unfortunately, I do not feel the same about the pen. Theo needs to blow up the pen.
Relievers are historically prone to performance fluctuations from year-to-year. In general, they are “like a box of chocolates…you never know what you are going to get.” Not sure if the reason for the instability is caused by the triple S (small sample sizes) - a good reliever could throw 25% of a comparable starter, just prone to more volatility than starters since most are failed to stay in the rotation (i.e. less talented), a combo or something less entirely. Regardless, the Sox pen carries even more risk than the average bear:
• Matt Mantei is another one of the Sox failed coming off an injury, low expense-high reward pitching reclamation projects.
• Alan Embree is a 35 year-old former flame-thrower that can’t dial it up any longer that has seen his velocity and K-rate decline every season in Boston.
• Mike Timlin is 39 with both his walk and strikeout rates going in the wrong directions. Fortunately, he is still getting the job done, although he is allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate. Mix those three ingredients together and Timlin’s production may drop off in the second half.
• John Da Lama and Mike Myers are what they are a veteran swing man and LOOGY, respectfully. They are useful, but not valuable.
And the closer, Keith Foulke is a risk as well.
Joe Sheenan of Baseball Prospectus researched and wrote an article at the time of Foulke’s signing. He concluded that Foulke…had about 120-150 innings at or near his current level left in him. That would be a shade shy of two seasons, and is a notion completely supported by the career patterns of those who came before him. When counting the regular and post season in 2004, Foulke threw 97 innings adding 2005’s 37 totals 134 innings. Since Tito said today on EEI that his closer does not have any health issues, it is entirely possible that last October was the last time we will see a consistently dominate Keith Foulke.
It is beginning to look a lot like 2003. Hopefully, Theo and company will acquire one or two relievers that performed at least as well as Bye Bye Kim (check it out he was effective) and Scott Williamson for the second half. An Eddie Guardado - Kelly Shoppach as the principals of a trade would be nice or even better, Brad Lidge, but it is still early to discuss trade options. Many teams still want to pretend they are contenders for a few more weeks. The Sox bats and rotation will need to continue to carry the load until reinforcements (Schilling and others) arrive in July.
4 Old Comments:
Mantei looked fine today after Wallace (presumably) threatened to bitch-slap him. He also didn't give up a run in May.
Embree's probably toast.
Having watched the last out of the WS many times, I would not be surprised if Tek and Minty broke something in Foulke's back or legs. They really crushed him.
I still have hopes for Mantei. It's tough coming back from injury with such short outings.
That's interesting about Foulke ... on what basis did he come up with that 120-150 innings projection? If it's true, and Foulke really is in steep decline, the Sox are in trouble. We may be seeing The Return of Cla (or The Papelbon Cometh) sooner than we think.
Brian
By 
, at
8:19 AM
you're forgetting that we're going to pick up an ace reliever when schilling gets back (if all goes well). still, i wouldn't be surprised to see theo pick up some more help before the deadline.
i think payton and shoppack would make excellent bargaining chips (though i think shoppack should have gotten more playing time when mirabelli was hurt--but that's another issue)
By , at
11:38 AM
Nick - Who is the ace reliever?
Steve and Brian,
My issue with Mantei has more to do with the ineffectiveness and the construction of the pen. I understand the guy is going to have his up-and-downs (it is also the name of a bar on the Dorchester-Quincy line) coming off an injury. It should have been masked by Embree and Foulke.
Since the pen has sucked, the construction (i.e. having only one guy that can consistently throw multiple innings – Da Lama) has made carrying Mantei a liability. Patience is necessary with Mantei – he has electric stuff – but his control issues drive me insane. He is almost a three true outcome (K, BB, HR) pitcher.
The 120-150 inning projection, I believe, was off the cuff in a chat, but the research backs up Joe’s initial thought since it translates to close to two regular season workloads for a end of the game reliever.
I doubt Cla returns before September and Pap isn’t happening – he is not on the 40-man. I think and hope the Sox have learned from bringing guys (Cla and Abe) to the Show before they are on the 40. It is not a big deal now (it cost a few extra bucks), since the Sox minor league system is not top heavy, but in the future hopefully it will be. Clubs don’t want to see their prospects taken in the Rule V.
The current pen and likely Arroyo has about three weeks to get their collective $hit together or acquisitions will be made.
By , at
11:43 AM
Thank you - Red Sox!
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