Tuesday, May 24, 2005
BACK TO THE FUTURE
As much as Nomar was frustrating to watch after his wrist injury – trying to pull everything when he couldn’t any longer - we were blessed with a shortstop that could hit. We forget that before the late 90’s “shortstop trinity” rarely did a club have a SS that was in the middle of the lineup. The struggles of Edgar Renteria make the Sox starting nine look more like one from that 70’s club, than the one some pundits thought could post close to 1,000 runs back in March.
Fortunately, Renteria’s slump is unlikely to continue. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system has the shortstop at a 28.6% chance of performing at his current level or collapsing (basically, a drop of 20% from last three seasons) throughout the entire season. Further, Renteria’s BB/K rate is steady from last season indicating that he is not being overmatched. He has had a drop (.094 or 18%) in isolated power (SLG – AVG) signifying that the ball is not coming off the bat with as much authority as it has in the past. Those numbers lead me to hypothesize that Renteria is just slightly off. It could be timing or a small hitch in his swing that is causing him to miss hitting the ball on the sweet spot of the bat. Renteria will be better with the lumber.
Since I have not spoken to the Sox shortstop, I will not speculate about his mental state like others. I have no clue as to whether the pressure of a $40 million contract, being on a new team that also happens to be the defending champs and the boos are affecting his play. But what I do know is the facts indicate that Renteria will likely improve at the plate and my guess is in the near future.
As much as Nomar was frustrating to watch after his wrist injury – trying to pull everything when he couldn’t any longer - we were blessed with a shortstop that could hit. We forget that before the late 90’s “shortstop trinity” rarely did a club have a SS that was in the middle of the lineup. The struggles of Edgar Renteria make the Sox starting nine look more like one from that 70’s club, than the one some pundits thought could post close to 1,000 runs back in March.
Fortunately, Renteria’s slump is unlikely to continue. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system has the shortstop at a 28.6% chance of performing at his current level or collapsing (basically, a drop of 20% from last three seasons) throughout the entire season. Further, Renteria’s BB/K rate is steady from last season indicating that he is not being overmatched. He has had a drop (.094 or 18%) in isolated power (SLG – AVG) signifying that the ball is not coming off the bat with as much authority as it has in the past. Those numbers lead me to hypothesize that Renteria is just slightly off. It could be timing or a small hitch in his swing that is causing him to miss hitting the ball on the sweet spot of the bat. Renteria will be better with the lumber.
Since I have not spoken to the Sox shortstop, I will not speculate about his mental state like others. I have no clue as to whether the pressure of a $40 million contract, being on a new team that also happens to be the defending champs and the boos are affecting his play. But what I do know is the facts indicate that Renteria will likely improve at the plate and my guess is in the near future.
1 Old Comments:
Edgar goes 3-4 in an otherwise sad team performance against Toronto... dude you are either clairvoyant or a friggin' genious!
By 
, at
11:39 PM
Thank you - Red Sox!
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