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Thursday, December 16, 2004


Renteria is not an elite shortstop. An OBP of 327 ranking 16th in MLB is terrible at $8-10 million per season. He was the man in 03 and 02, but those numbers were driven by his high average. For most players, batting average is the most volatile stat.

Since Renteria can not consistently put up big numbers, the issue is opportunity cost – what could $36-40 million purchase instead is the question. If the Sox spend $8-10 million on Renteria, it is money that could go to landing Berkman or Hudson after 05 and/or Sheets or Mulder in 06. A stop gap solution at short would have been a better option, and thus saving the cash for a better investment.

Now, let's say the Sox score Hudson by dealing Hanley + and sign Tek to $10 mil. for four. Hudson then gets an extension for $12.5 mil. over four. The Sox then have limited financial flexibility from 2005-2007. Hudson, Tek, Renteria, Schilling, Manny, Ortiz, and Foulke, all on the wrong side of 30, will eat up around $78-80 million. It is certainly a nice core of players in 2005, but beyond next season is anyone’s guess. It could be a recipe for mediocrity in 06 and 07, if a few of Theo's first draft picks don't turn into solid starters. A lot would be riding on those boys developing.

But regardless of the next moves, the signing of Renteria is not a good deal. It appears to be reactionary and PR driven like including Minky in the Nomar deal. Yes, I doubt Don Theo. This could be my last post. I may be swimming with the fishes later today.


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