Monday, December 13, 2004
Noon today is the start of the MLB’s Rule 5 draft. The best free review of the rules and preview is here from Rotoworld (Baseball Prospectus has a pay-per-view column that was also used as research for this post). The questionable signing of John Halama to a one-year $1 million contract decreases the likelihood of the Red Sox making two selections this season, as I believe they have under Theo’s direction the past two drafts. The Sox will probably not take a position player. The flexibility of players under contract and few fits among the eligible players – besides Jason Cooper who will likely be chosen before the Red Sox pick – point to the Sox selecting at least one pitcher later today. My likely candidates are:
• Luke Hagerty – LHP Cubs – 24 – Underwent Tommy John in 2003 and the Sox could place him on the 60-day DL without upsetting their active 25-man roster. The Sox could deem Hagerty a low risk (roughly 350K)/ high reward (pre-arbitration starter or power reliever in 2007). He reportedly features a mid-90’s fastball and slider.
• Brad Knox – RHP A’s - 22 – An eye popping 174/24 K/BB in 156 innings, but for Single-A Kane County.
• Shawn Kohn – RHP A’s – 25 – Minor league relief pitcher posted a 105/11 K/BB in 86 innings for Modesto and Sacramento. A perfect low cost selection for a long man out of the pen. Kohn should be gone before the Red Sox are on the clock.
• Blake McGinley – LHP Mets – 25 – 111/22 K/BB in 99 innings of relief work in AA and AAA. A perfect low cost selection for a long man out of the pen. Sound familiar?
• Royce Ring – LHP Mets – 24 – Most have this reliever pegged as a future LOOGY with a very hard breaking ball for southpaws. LOOGYies are valuable for the Sox if they can consistently throw strikes because Matsui, Delgado, Chavez and the like – who the pitcher will only be pitted against - will not swing at bad pitches outside of the zone.
• Davis Romero – LHP BJs – 22 – 108/30 K/BB in 103 innings, but for Single A. He could be selected in the second round.
Two other quick notes:
• Congratulations to Peter Gammons on making the Hall of Fame. It is well deserved. A highlight of mine was seeing Gammons doing Baseball Tonight in St. Louis prior to Game 4 of the World Series.
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