Thursday, May 13, 2004
WHAT'S GOING ON?
The issue with the club as it stands now is the lack of run production. The Red Sox are averaging 4.94 runs per game ranking them eighth in the American League. The interesting fact is that the club ranks fifth in OBP at 348 and fourth in SLG at 442. Those rankings would suggest that the Sox should be around fifth in runs scored (there is a high correlation between the components of OPS and runs scored). Obviously, the Sox have not been efficient at the plate. They rank first or last in runners left on base.
The natural response is that the Sox need to hit better in the “clutch” or with runners on base. Of course, base hits when ducks are on the pond would assist, but the real or long-term answer is for the Sox to rid their lineup of the automatic outs known as Kapler, Reese, and Crespo. The trio has collected over 17% of the team’s plate appearances combining for a weighted OBP of 254. The lack of production or OBP at the bottom of the lineup is preventing the Sox from increasing their run production. Two players in the lineup with an OBP<300 will kill the possibility of a big inning and significantly reduce the effectiveness of the on-base skills of Manny, Ortiz, Millar, and V-Tek.
Thankfully, the Sox have in-house answers - Nomar and Nixon – and to a lesser extent Ellis Burks. Nomar’s return will send Crespo packing. Nixon and Burks arrivals back to Fenway should end Kapler’s days with a bat (Burks as the DH with Millar in right and Ortiz at first). The only question is who’s on second – Pokey or Bellhorn.
Tito should implement a strict platoon based on the starting pitcher once Nomar is in mid-season form. Bellhorn plays when Pedro, Schilling and Wake start and Reese plays when Lowe is on the mound. Only Lowe and possibly Arroyo generate enough ground balls to warrant writing Pokey, as much fun as that may be, on the lineup card. If Bellhorn continues to get on and he will, the man has to get plate appearances. You’re my boy, Blue-Bellhorn!
The issue with the club as it stands now is the lack of run production. The Red Sox are averaging 4.94 runs per game ranking them eighth in the American League. The interesting fact is that the club ranks fifth in OBP at 348 and fourth in SLG at 442. Those rankings would suggest that the Sox should be around fifth in runs scored (there is a high correlation between the components of OPS and runs scored). Obviously, the Sox have not been efficient at the plate. They rank first or last in runners left on base.
The natural response is that the Sox need to hit better in the “clutch” or with runners on base. Of course, base hits when ducks are on the pond would assist, but the real or long-term answer is for the Sox to rid their lineup of the automatic outs known as Kapler, Reese, and Crespo. The trio has collected over 17% of the team’s plate appearances combining for a weighted OBP of 254. The lack of production or OBP at the bottom of the lineup is preventing the Sox from increasing their run production. Two players in the lineup with an OBP<300 will kill the possibility of a big inning and significantly reduce the effectiveness of the on-base skills of Manny, Ortiz, Millar, and V-Tek.
Thankfully, the Sox have in-house answers - Nomar and Nixon – and to a lesser extent Ellis Burks. Nomar’s return will send Crespo packing. Nixon and Burks arrivals back to Fenway should end Kapler’s days with a bat (Burks as the DH with Millar in right and Ortiz at first). The only question is who’s on second – Pokey or Bellhorn.
Tito should implement a strict platoon based on the starting pitcher once Nomar is in mid-season form. Bellhorn plays when Pedro, Schilling and Wake start and Reese plays when Lowe is on the mound. Only Lowe and possibly Arroyo generate enough ground balls to warrant writing Pokey, as much fun as that may be, on the lineup card. If Bellhorn continues to get on and he will, the man has to get plate appearances. You’re my boy, Blue-Bellhorn!
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Thank you - Red Sox!
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