El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

Q & A with JOHN GIZZI

John Gizzi writes for ESPN.com as the A’s Fantasy Correspondent. In 2000 and 2001, John won the distinguished Tobin Cup for literature. Over the years, he has provided El Guapo’s Ghost with intelligent analysis into the Sox major rival out West. Our latest email exchange was no exception.

El Guapo’s Ghost: If the A’s skip Redman, the Sox will face the “Big Three.” Hudson and Mulder have been pitching well, have the numbers to prove it and are scheduled to face the Sox regardless of any rotation changes. You mention that Zito’s velocity is down, but how is the tough curve that froze many Sox hitter last October? Does he really need those three mph to be effective?

John Gizzi: The funny thing about Zito's numbers last year was that his BA against (.219) was consistent with what it had been throughout his career, and he allowed an OPS of only .616, 10 points lower than the year before when Zito won 23 games and the AL Cy Young. (Quit crying about Pedro getting jobbed, Red Sox fans. It was two years ago.) Other than a reduced strikeout rate, he was the same pitcher he had been the year before: about the same peripherals, two more innings pitched -- but nine fewer wins. So much for pitchers "knowing how to win."

But that was last year. In 2004, Zito is working up high pitch counts, as he had done in 2003, but this time he's being hit -- and hit hard. Opposing hitters are plastering him at a .854 OPS clip, and he's already allowed nine home runs in 55 innings. Through it all, though, Zito's striking out over seven hitters per nine innings, on par with what he had done up until last year. The stuff is clearly still there, even if his velocity is down a little.

So what gives? Poor command and overall strategy. Nearly every home run Zito has allowed has been on his fastball. Either a lot of guys are guessing right, or Zito's lost velocity is hurting him, or both. What's happening more than anything else is that Zito is working in reverse: he absolutely must get the bender over to establish the fastball, but for some reason he's been doing it the other way around. If Zito effectively works his curve into the count early, he could give the Sox trouble. If not, I advise the fans in the Green Monster bleachers to please be aware of flying objects moving toward them at high speeds.

EGG: How is Rhodes’ velocity? Like Alan Embree, I think Rhodes has to establish his fastball to be effective. When he does not hit 93+ on the gun, Rhodes and Embree can hurt by good hitters.

J.G.: Rhodes has been working (apparently) on a cut fastball, which has (apparently) resulted in six straight scoreless outings, covering (apparently) seven innings. (No, wait, it really was seven innings. Ignore that last "apparently." The first two hold, though.) If that sounds like an excuse for how mediocre Rhodes had been before he "learned" this cutter, it probably is. Anecdotally, Rhodes looks about the same: decent but not great velocity, not much of an off-speed pitch, and little sign of the nastiness he showed in 2001 and 2002 pitching for the Mariners. This series is a big test for Rhodes, because the games should be close, and the Red Sox are a more patient, better hitting team than the Tigers and Royals, the teams Rhodes has been putting up all those zeroes against. He has the "make-up" to be an elite reliever, but if he's pitching through an injury, as he did last year, he's not helping anyone except the Angels, Yankees, and Red Sox, teams which, along with the A's, form four qualified squads fighting for three playoff spots.

EGG: Which new bat has been the biggest disappointment – Kielty, Karros, Kotsay? Without Hattie, Scutaro, Miller hitting above their heads, the A’s offense would be in crisis mode.

J.G.: Not much was expected of Karros, and Kielty, while the A's were very high on him, at least has been hitting well against left-handed pitchers, making Kotsay the easy "winner." It's not only the gruesome numbers (.229/.286/.264), but it's also Kotsay's salary: he's taking home $6.5 million this year. While a wealthy team like the Red Sox, who spend that much to deny all the Manny Ramirez trade rumors and perhaps to secure a few ivory back-scratchers (but none for poor Pedro), can burn money like that, the A's can not afford to make such lucrative mistakes. Kielty and Karros, while stiffish, at least are cheap; together they are signed for $897,000, ncentives not included.

But while on the one hand Kotsay has been terrible, on the other hand to obtain him the A's jettisoned Terrence Long, a move that has to be considered a good one no matter if the cost was untold millions of dollars, a few dozen Erubiel Durazo autographs, or the prospect of being forced to watch "American Idol" 100 straight days. On the other hand -- no, it seems we're out of hands, so let's turn to our legs -- it takes a special player to hit worse than Terrence Long, and, remarkably, Mark Kotsay has been that player.

EGG: Is Dye really back? In May, he is 228/297/333 [as of 5/19/04].

J.G.: Which brings us to the (so far) savior of the A's, Jermaine Dye. Dye crushed the ball early, but as Thomas points out, in May he has been T-Long (it never gets old bashing that stiff): .257/.321/.414, two home runs. It seems that for the first few weeks of the season teams were challenging Dye inside with hard fastballs: "You say you're healthy, then prove it." Prove it he did, by raking those fastballs out of the yard. Since then, it's been a lot of off-speed breaking balls and hard sliders away, and Dye has not adjusted. It's possible he's peaked already this season, but it's a contract year, so it would not be surprising if Dye somehow found his early-season stroke again. (But the prospect of millions of dollars from the Yankees in 2005 would have had nothing to do with it.) No matter what Dye does the rest of the year, he is NOT critical to the A's offense. They're going to struggle scoring runs no matter what, and if Dye doesn't play another game all year or if he hits 50 home runs, that would not change. This is a mediocre unit, especially since Kielty and Kotsay are not hitting like the A's wanted.

EGG: Is Joe Blanton really ready? He has unimpressive peripherals to date in Sacramento. Is he better trade bait than Zito or Harden given the media attention? Former Red Sox farm hand, Duchscherer could be more than adequate in the fifth spot (Duchscherer was traded to Texas for Doug ‘Bellies).

J.G.: Why does Blanton need to be ready? Even with Zito struggling, the A's rotation is top notch, and if Billy Beane wants to make a deal, he seldom trades his top prospects unless absolutely necessary. (All the White Sox could get for Ray Durham was Jon Adkins? Jon Adkins! They'd have been better off with that diet guru with the homonymic last name.) Nonetheless, Beane WILL have to cough up some Grade A talent this time around, because the A's need a second baseman, a power relief pitcher, and -- surprise, surprise -- an outfielder who can actually hit. The good news is that they've got the prospects to deal, and with six of the first 39 picks in this year's amateur draft, they'll have even more come June. So who goes? The suspicion here is that Blanton will be traded before Harden and Zito; unless Harden can fetch Carlos Beltran, he's not going anywhere, especially with the likely departure of one of the Big Three.

I have been very impressed with what I have seen from Duchscherer, but he probably has no future with the club (for one thing the A's signed Mark Redman to a baffling three-year deal), something that flies in the face of what the A's are supposed to be about. As readers of Moneyball know, the A's supposedly value performance over potential, especially when evaluating college and minor-league talent. In other words, if given the choice between A) a 5'10" reliever who strikes out 80 hitters in 60 innings, with low hit and walk rates to match, but who tops out at only 88 MPH or B) a 6'4" wunderkind who throws 99 MPH but who can't find home plate, the A's are going to choose option "A." Other teams can take their chances with a Bobby Jenks; the A's will take theirs on, well, a Duchscherer. Except, as I say, it's not going to work that way with Duchscherer. When he's traded in July, he's going to make a fine addition to somebody's staff. Think a younger Brad Radke, and you've got an accurate picture of what the Duke can be, given his minor-league numbers and how he actually looks on the mound.

EGG: Thanks a lot for providing great insight that you can’t get from checking out the box score. It is greatly appreciated. It should be a great series if the weather holds.