Tuesday, May 18, 2004
ERRORS, SAVES and FOULKE
Of course, errors are bad and the Sox defense has been sloppy of late but the error is very poor statistic. The error is inherently subjective. The official scorer has too much influence.
When analyzing defensive performance, the most important mental adjustment to make is to hold the defense accountable for every hit on balls that could have been fielded…Bill James suggested this approach in one of his Abstracts in the 1980s, calling the new metric "Defensive Efficiency (DE)." It is, quite simply, the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense. The best teams are usually around .7300 with the worst around .6900.
The Red Sox Defensive Efficiency is currently at .7001 and it will get better.
Prior to the Toronto series, Tito’s use of Foulke was near flawless and somewhat unconventional. Some folks are wondering why he doesn’t have more saves…well because he is being used efficiently unlike a pure closer.
A pure closer is a reliever who only comes in to protect a one- to three-run lead, only in the ninth. The worst pitcher in baseball stands a great chance of pitching the ninth inning without giving up three runs. With no outs, a team with an average offense against an average pitcher can expect to score half a run.
The issue with Tito has been his willingness to use DiNardo in tight situations when better options are available and it seems like Tito forgot that Foulke can pitch two innings very effectively.
Please note that the above quotes are from articles available at Baseball Prospectus and I highly recommend reading them and their other material as well.
Of course, errors are bad and the Sox defense has been sloppy of late but the error is very poor statistic. The error is inherently subjective. The official scorer has too much influence.
When analyzing defensive performance, the most important mental adjustment to make is to hold the defense accountable for every hit on balls that could have been fielded…Bill James suggested this approach in one of his Abstracts in the 1980s, calling the new metric "Defensive Efficiency (DE)." It is, quite simply, the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense. The best teams are usually around .7300 with the worst around .6900.
The Red Sox Defensive Efficiency is currently at .7001 and it will get better.
Prior to the Toronto series, Tito’s use of Foulke was near flawless and somewhat unconventional. Some folks are wondering why he doesn’t have more saves…well because he is being used efficiently unlike a pure closer.
A pure closer is a reliever who only comes in to protect a one- to three-run lead, only in the ninth. The worst pitcher in baseball stands a great chance of pitching the ninth inning without giving up three runs. With no outs, a team with an average offense against an average pitcher can expect to score half a run.
The issue with Tito has been his willingness to use DiNardo in tight situations when better options are available and it seems like Tito forgot that Foulke can pitch two innings very effectively.
Please note that the above quotes are from articles available at Baseball Prospectus and I highly recommend reading them and their other material as well.
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Thank you - Red Sox!
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