El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

MO LIGHT ATKINS APPROVED?

David Ortiz or Mo Light had a breakout season in 2003 at the age of 28 – one that I forecasted correctly I might add. The Sox should offer Ortiz a Nixon-type deal – three at this season’s arbitration number but no more in dollars or length. A three year deal would lock up Ortiz from the age 28 to 30. Like Nixon, Ortiz would gain financial and professional security in exchange for possibly less money on the open market.

Ortiz fits into the Red Sox hitting philosophy with long at-bats (career marks of 4.06 #P/PA and .111 BB/PA) and power (career slugging percentage of 491). Mo Light’s comparables in order of similarity, pre-1960 players were omitted, are:

(OPS+ at age 28/29/30 – league average is 100)

Brian Daubach – 90/122/116
Greg Walker – 90/77/12
Tino Martinez – 107/144/123
Brad Fullmer – N/A
Glen Davis – 142/143/113
Lee May – 144/137/116
Eric Karros – 114/111/123
Tony Clark – 122/125/50
Kevin Millar – 119/141/131
Willie Aikens – 149/83/85
Mo Vaughn – 148/152/155
Geoff Jenkins – N/A
Reggie Jefferson – 113/130/89

Ortiz’s comps are a mixed bag with the two worst performers after the age of 27 as his best comps. Mo Vaughn is the only player to average above Ortiz’s 2003 OPS+ of 144. The Hit Dog or Dirty Dog or Foxy Dog also had two great years (137 and 146) prior to his age 27 season, where Ortiz has not. Thus, it is unlikely for Mo Light to match the Hit Dog’s production through the age of 30. Ortiz is likely to perform similar to the other players in the above list hitting between 120-140 at 28 and 29 then a drop to league average at 30.

Those numbers are certainly worth $14 million over three years. If Mo Light refuses, the Sox will certainly have a number of above average hitting DHs to choose from each winter. Theo and company have not had a difficult time finding those inexpensive hidden gems. It is not imperative to sign Mo Light to a long-term deal. Ortiz should only be inked under the club’s terms.