Wednesday, January 21, 2004
WHO SAYS CHANGE IS HARD?
Billy Beane and company have made many significant changes to their club over the winter but the Big Three remain and should keep them in contention. The A's were 2nd in the AL in runs prevented and only 6 behind the first place M's while 72 ahead of the next club. The A's are a good pitching and defensive club last season and should be again in 2004. Their problem is with the stick. The A's ranked 9th in the AL in runs scored.
As usual, all big-time and high priced free agents leave Oakland. Miguel Tejada and Keith Foulke are gone. They are replaced by Arthur Rhodes and most likely, Bobby Crosby from the farm. Neither one is likely to match their predecessor’s production although both could adequately man the positions. Crosby played in AAA last season hitting a major league equivalent (mjeqa) of .273 in 2003; Tejada's EQA was .280. The A's might not see a dramatic decrease in production with the arrival of Crosby. The difference can be made up by other positions.
Foulke was awesome last season. We, Sox fans, are going to enjoy when Tito goes to the pen this season. Rhodes is no Foulke. Rhodes really slowed this past season. His K/9 dropped from 10.46 in 2002 (00-02 were all about 10 per 9) to 8.0 and even more of an issue is his K/BB rate falling off a cliff from 6.23 to 2.67. Perhaps something was physically wrong with Rhodes (I believe it was an ankle), but regardless this is a high risk given the contract length and Rhodes’ age. It may come back to haunt them like showing TLong the money.
Speaking of the unproductive outfielder, the A's had a horrible collection last season. Below are the players with more than 100 at-bats:
Player - AB - AVG/OBP/SLG
Dye - 221 - 172/261/253
Singleton - 306 - 245/301/340
Guillen - 170 - 265/311/459
Long - 486 - 245/293/385
Byrnes - 414 - 263/333/459
McMillon - 153 - 268/354/458
Piatt - 100 - 240/280/460
The weighted average of the above players was 243/305/395 in 2333 at-bats. The hitting line looks like it should belong to a 1970's gold glove shortstop not an outfield.
The likely outfielders in 2004 with last season's stats are below:
Kotsay – 482 - 283/355/426
Kielty – 427 - 261/367/428
Byrnes – 414 - 258/325/456
Dye – 221 – 172/261/253
In 1544 at-bats last season, the group hit 246/333/390 which is not much better than the mess in 2003. But we know that one previous season is not solely a good indicator of future performance. Baseball Prospectus’ forecasting system has the foursome hitting a collective 257/332/427 (like I would give up my system; my fantasy opponents read this). It is an improvement. BP is too conservative limiting the foursomes’ at-bats, indicating no improvement for both Kielty and Byrnes and throwing Jermaine Dye into the Bay. If Dye at 29 can somewhat resemble his 2002 season hitting 252/333/459 in 488 at-bats, it would be a big plus for the A’s.
Damian Miller takes over for Hernandez behind the plate. Even though I have doubts about Hernandez, he is young, developing and signed for reasonable money. Hernandez can also hit going 271/331/458 in 2003. He is replaced by the 34 year-old Miller who hit 233/310/269 at Wrigley. Miller's production can only be forecast to continue to decline moving to the Bay Area. The A’s are taking a hit in production behind the plate.
Miller will play catch with Mark Redman who replaces Ted Lilly as the club #4. It is basically a wash. Lilly probably has more upside, but with more risk than Redman. Both are good #4's and it makes Harden a very good #5. The Sox will have a difficult time facing three good LH starters if both clubs faces off again in October.
In summary, the A’s are taking big risks at catcher and short stop. The outfield should improve but may not offset the probable decrease in production from SS, C and possibly in the pen. The A’s have to take these risk due to their limited financial resources. The Big Three and good glove work will have to carry this club again into October.
Billy Beane and company have made many significant changes to their club over the winter but the Big Three remain and should keep them in contention. The A's were 2nd in the AL in runs prevented and only 6 behind the first place M's while 72 ahead of the next club. The A's are a good pitching and defensive club last season and should be again in 2004. Their problem is with the stick. The A's ranked 9th in the AL in runs scored.
As usual, all big-time and high priced free agents leave Oakland. Miguel Tejada and Keith Foulke are gone. They are replaced by Arthur Rhodes and most likely, Bobby Crosby from the farm. Neither one is likely to match their predecessor’s production although both could adequately man the positions. Crosby played in AAA last season hitting a major league equivalent (mjeqa) of .273 in 2003; Tejada's EQA was .280. The A's might not see a dramatic decrease in production with the arrival of Crosby. The difference can be made up by other positions.
Foulke was awesome last season. We, Sox fans, are going to enjoy when Tito goes to the pen this season. Rhodes is no Foulke. Rhodes really slowed this past season. His K/9 dropped from 10.46 in 2002 (00-02 were all about 10 per 9) to 8.0 and even more of an issue is his K/BB rate falling off a cliff from 6.23 to 2.67. Perhaps something was physically wrong with Rhodes (I believe it was an ankle), but regardless this is a high risk given the contract length and Rhodes’ age. It may come back to haunt them like showing TLong the money.
Speaking of the unproductive outfielder, the A's had a horrible collection last season. Below are the players with more than 100 at-bats:
Player - AB - AVG/OBP/SLG
Dye - 221 - 172/261/253
Singleton - 306 - 245/301/340
Guillen - 170 - 265/311/459
Long - 486 - 245/293/385
Byrnes - 414 - 263/333/459
McMillon - 153 - 268/354/458
Piatt - 100 - 240/280/460
The weighted average of the above players was 243/305/395 in 2333 at-bats. The hitting line looks like it should belong to a 1970's gold glove shortstop not an outfield.
The likely outfielders in 2004 with last season's stats are below:
Kotsay – 482 - 283/355/426
Kielty – 427 - 261/367/428
Byrnes – 414 - 258/325/456
Dye – 221 – 172/261/253
In 1544 at-bats last season, the group hit 246/333/390 which is not much better than the mess in 2003. But we know that one previous season is not solely a good indicator of future performance. Baseball Prospectus’ forecasting system has the foursome hitting a collective 257/332/427 (like I would give up my system; my fantasy opponents read this). It is an improvement. BP is too conservative limiting the foursomes’ at-bats, indicating no improvement for both Kielty and Byrnes and throwing Jermaine Dye into the Bay. If Dye at 29 can somewhat resemble his 2002 season hitting 252/333/459 in 488 at-bats, it would be a big plus for the A’s.
Damian Miller takes over for Hernandez behind the plate. Even though I have doubts about Hernandez, he is young, developing and signed for reasonable money. Hernandez can also hit going 271/331/458 in 2003. He is replaced by the 34 year-old Miller who hit 233/310/269 at Wrigley. Miller's production can only be forecast to continue to decline moving to the Bay Area. The A’s are taking a hit in production behind the plate.
Miller will play catch with Mark Redman who replaces Ted Lilly as the club #4. It is basically a wash. Lilly probably has more upside, but with more risk than Redman. Both are good #4's and it makes Harden a very good #5. The Sox will have a difficult time facing three good LH starters if both clubs faces off again in October.
In summary, the A’s are taking big risks at catcher and short stop. The outfield should improve but may not offset the probable decrease in production from SS, C and possibly in the pen. The A’s have to take these risk due to their limited financial resources. The Big Three and good glove work will have to carry this club again into October.
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