Tuesday, January 27, 2004
FANTASY BASEBALL PICKS
Anyone can pick Barry Bonds, Fat Albert is in the Can, Curt Schilling, but to win your league the key is to find one or two “sleepers” in the mid to late rounds of the draft. "Sleepers" are undervalued players that have a good chance of a breakout season. Sleepers are educated guesses. They are not flat out surprises like Marcus Giles and Mo Light (a.k.a. David Ortiz). Last year, Vernon Wells and Aubrey Huff are prime examples of sleepers.
I play in an AL only league and since most of my upcoming opponents read this site, I am only going to give my top five NL sleepers for 2004. I am doing double the research before this year's draft by crossing checking my revised forecast against Nate Silver’s PECOTA system, checking on injury reports and Winter League action from my contacts all over Latin America and the Islands. About a eighth of the last sentence is true – I slightly revised my offensive metric and I’ll look at Silver’s projection.
The sleepers will be rated as a hold, buy and strong buy like stocks.
HOLD
The pros have already picked Criag Wilson so he is not a sleeper anymore. I actually wrote this before I read ESPN. If I did not have a real job, I would have beaten ESPN to the punch. If Wilson is catcher eligible, he moves up to buy status. Wilson will come close to 100 RBIs next season by default. Other than Kendall, if he is not traded, no one else will be in the lineup as a "power hitter," I use that term very loosely. Let's not forget Orlando Cabrera had 100+ ribbies not so long ago.
BUY
Carl Everett should flourish in Montreal just do not play him against LHP. No media, no fans, no health issues, no scrutiny, he gets to play 22 games in P.R. and will hit behind Vidro and Wilkerson. Da Mad Man should easily put up 275-25-100+ rbi line in the Northern City of Sin.
Brad Wilkerson is also underrated. Frank Robinson told me a couple of years ago that Wilkerson was "a pleasant surprise." He should not be anymore. Wilkerson did not succumb to a sophomore slump in 2003 going 268/380/464. At 26, he should only improve. A line of 280-20-100+ runs should not surprise the remaining 5,000 or so Expos fans.
D'Angelos Jiminez has always been a favorite of mine and he will finally get a chance at a full-time job. He is eating up the Dominican League. Finally healthy and secure, Jiminez will continue to have a strong season with Cincy, 290/365/421 in 2003. He will likely bat leadoff in front of a row of sluggers. Jiminez also plays his home games in a new retro/small park. As a second baseman capable of hitting 300-10-100+ runs plus 10-20 steals, Jiminez could be the pick that wins your league.
STRONG BUY
Adam Dunn! Yes, this is the same Adam Dunn that hit 215 last season. Beside the horrible average, I’ll address that later, Dunn is a tremendous young power and walk hitter. He also hits in a tiny home park and in a lineup that could be outstanding. Dunn will also steal a couple of bases for your squad as well.
Not many disagree with my above assessment of Dunn. The issue folks have with Dunn is the high number of strikeouts which in part leads to a low average. Let’s tackle the strikeouts like Rodney Harrison will do this Sunday. Below is Dunn’s K/PA, K/BB followed by AVG/OBP/SLG.
01 - .26/.51 – 262/371/578
02 - .25/.75 – 249/400/454
03 - .27/.59 – 215/354/465
The only real change in the strikeout stats is the K/BB rate in 2002. Dunn walked more in 2002 resulting in a higher on-base percentage; no surprise. Even with slightly fewer strikeouts, Dunn’s average actually dropped from 2001 to 2002. Strikeouts do affect batting average just not a lot in most cases. Dunn just needs to get lucky and “hit them where they aint” to see his average increase which should happen…
If the Reds lineup stays healthy, the batting order should be Jiminez, Casey, Kearns, Griffey and Dunn. Dunn should be hitting often with men on base increasing his chances of getting a pitch in his “happy zone.” More pitches in Dunn’s wheel house should increase balls hit hard and bring up his average and overall numbers.
With that being said, I don’t expect Dunn to hit 300; 270 tops and more in the 250-260 range. But you still want him! He won’t affect your overall fantasy average too much. Even though I anticipate Dunn’s BB/PA to decrease, he will still walk a ton decreasing his at-bats. The fewer the at-bats means the less of an affect Dunn’s average will have on your overall team figure. If you want, hedge your bets with Juan Pierre or the anti-Dunn who is likely to hit 300 with 600 at-bats. Dunn with 450 at-bats and a 250 average combined with Pierre gives you a nice fantasy average of 280.
Anyone can pick Barry Bonds, Fat Albert is in the Can, Curt Schilling, but to win your league the key is to find one or two “sleepers” in the mid to late rounds of the draft. "Sleepers" are undervalued players that have a good chance of a breakout season. Sleepers are educated guesses. They are not flat out surprises like Marcus Giles and Mo Light (a.k.a. David Ortiz). Last year, Vernon Wells and Aubrey Huff are prime examples of sleepers.
I play in an AL only league and since most of my upcoming opponents read this site, I am only going to give my top five NL sleepers for 2004. I am doing double the research before this year's draft by crossing checking my revised forecast against Nate Silver’s PECOTA system, checking on injury reports and Winter League action from my contacts all over Latin America and the Islands. About a eighth of the last sentence is true – I slightly revised my offensive metric and I’ll look at Silver’s projection.
The sleepers will be rated as a hold, buy and strong buy like stocks.
HOLD
The pros have already picked Criag Wilson so he is not a sleeper anymore. I actually wrote this before I read ESPN. If I did not have a real job, I would have beaten ESPN to the punch. If Wilson is catcher eligible, he moves up to buy status. Wilson will come close to 100 RBIs next season by default. Other than Kendall, if he is not traded, no one else will be in the lineup as a "power hitter," I use that term very loosely. Let's not forget Orlando Cabrera had 100+ ribbies not so long ago.
BUY
Carl Everett should flourish in Montreal just do not play him against LHP. No media, no fans, no health issues, no scrutiny, he gets to play 22 games in P.R. and will hit behind Vidro and Wilkerson. Da Mad Man should easily put up 275-25-100+ rbi line in the Northern City of Sin.
Brad Wilkerson is also underrated. Frank Robinson told me a couple of years ago that Wilkerson was "a pleasant surprise." He should not be anymore. Wilkerson did not succumb to a sophomore slump in 2003 going 268/380/464. At 26, he should only improve. A line of 280-20-100+ runs should not surprise the remaining 5,000 or so Expos fans.
D'Angelos Jiminez has always been a favorite of mine and he will finally get a chance at a full-time job. He is eating up the Dominican League. Finally healthy and secure, Jiminez will continue to have a strong season with Cincy, 290/365/421 in 2003. He will likely bat leadoff in front of a row of sluggers. Jiminez also plays his home games in a new retro/small park. As a second baseman capable of hitting 300-10-100+ runs plus 10-20 steals, Jiminez could be the pick that wins your league.
STRONG BUY
Adam Dunn! Yes, this is the same Adam Dunn that hit 215 last season. Beside the horrible average, I’ll address that later, Dunn is a tremendous young power and walk hitter. He also hits in a tiny home park and in a lineup that could be outstanding. Dunn will also steal a couple of bases for your squad as well.
Not many disagree with my above assessment of Dunn. The issue folks have with Dunn is the high number of strikeouts which in part leads to a low average. Let’s tackle the strikeouts like Rodney Harrison will do this Sunday. Below is Dunn’s K/PA, K/BB followed by AVG/OBP/SLG.
01 - .26/.51 – 262/371/578
02 - .25/.75 – 249/400/454
03 - .27/.59 – 215/354/465
The only real change in the strikeout stats is the K/BB rate in 2002. Dunn walked more in 2002 resulting in a higher on-base percentage; no surprise. Even with slightly fewer strikeouts, Dunn’s average actually dropped from 2001 to 2002. Strikeouts do affect batting average just not a lot in most cases. Dunn just needs to get lucky and “hit them where they aint” to see his average increase which should happen…
If the Reds lineup stays healthy, the batting order should be Jiminez, Casey, Kearns, Griffey and Dunn. Dunn should be hitting often with men on base increasing his chances of getting a pitch in his “happy zone.” More pitches in Dunn’s wheel house should increase balls hit hard and bring up his average and overall numbers.
With that being said, I don’t expect Dunn to hit 300; 270 tops and more in the 250-260 range. But you still want him! He won’t affect your overall fantasy average too much. Even though I anticipate Dunn’s BB/PA to decrease, he will still walk a ton decreasing his at-bats. The fewer the at-bats means the less of an affect Dunn’s average will have on your overall team figure. If you want, hedge your bets with Juan Pierre or the anti-Dunn who is likely to hit 300 with 600 at-bats. Dunn with 450 at-bats and a 250 average combined with Pierre gives you a nice fantasy average of 280.
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