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Tuesday, January 06, 2004

$4.5 MILLION FOR A FORMER MVP?

Allard Baird is coming into his own after inking Juan Gone for $4.5 million base salary plus incentives based on plate appearances. Baird could be having the best offseason of any GM, including "King Theo." But tomorrow will be the time to examine the Rockin' Royals. This post is about Raffy Palmeiro.

Raffy is a 39 year old southpaw DH. His numbers declined in 2003, but still good and not far off his career marks. Even though Palmeiro's production will certainly drop in 2004 due to age and moving from the best hitter's park in the AL, many teams could use his bat in the lineup. Raffy should also command around or less than JGone's $4.5 million, which should fit into more than a few team budgets. So which AL team's have room for a durable career 291/373/522? Not many.

The only non-full rebuilding club that may have 500 at-bats for Palmeiro is Baltimore depending upon the health of Segui, Cordova and the outcome in their pursuit of Vlad. Every other AL team has a player slotted as a DH. It is unlikely that Raffy will be signed by an AL team and get a full-time job. The Cards or Pirates could be a home for the possible future Hall of Famer, but he would have to play first base. A position that Raffy has only played 152 games at over the last two seasons. His ability to man the position on a full-time basis would be a huge question. These factors reduce the demand for Palmeiro's services and his price tag.

Theo should sign Raffy for $2-3 million plus incentives in 30 or so days. He does want to be without a job when pitchers and catchers report. He will take the deal with the opportunity to win a job from Millar or Ortiz and win a World Series. First, it gives the Sox a nice insurance policy and a big bat off the bench. Second, if Raffy plays well, Theo can move the future HOF, Ortiz or Millar when another club's DH/1B goes down to injury. Depth, among other things, brings flexibility. Inking Palmeiro to a reasonable deal opens up more possibilities for the Sox now and in the future.

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