El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

Over the past two week, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star was nice enough to return my emails regarding the possible departure of Carlos Beltran. The following are those messages. I will comment more on trades and the market in during the All-Star break at the latest.

-----Original Message-----
From: El Guapo's Ghost
Sent: Thursday, June 19, 2003 11:15 AM
To: bdutton@kcstar.com
Subject: Beltran

Bob Dutton,

I think the Phillies could be a good fit for Beltran. The Phillies could send Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley and Tyler Houston to K.C. As you probably know, both Byrd and Utley are two highly touted upper-level prospects that play in the positions Allard Baird wants to fill with low cost, high-upside options. Houston is a salary dump, but could serve as a temporary solution at the hot-corner if the Baird decides to move Joe Randa and keep Utley in AAA.

Philly gets an all-star centerfielder who could jump start their underperforming offense and possibly get them into the playoffs. Philly would only be taking on a little over $2 million. I understand Philly’s financial concerns -somewhat, but they are based on the long-term contracts given out last off-season and should not hinder their ability to get an impact player for this year. They would still control Beltran’s rights after 2003. Philly’s financial concerns should go hand in hand with their concerns on the field. Recently, it has been shown that even a new ballpark will not sustain high attendance figures without a winning club. A playoff team would go along way for a franchise moving into a new stadium that plays in the one of the biggest baseball markets, and in one of the best sports towns in North America.

-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Dutton
Sent: Thursday, June 19, 2003 1:25 PM
To: El Guapo's Ghost
Subject: RE: Beltran

Interesting thought. I’ll check to see if there’s any talk between the two clubs.

Bob Dutton
The Kansas City Star

-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Dutton
Sent: Wednesday, June 25, 2003 7:57 PM
To: El Guapo's Ghost
Subject: RE: Beltran

I can tell you this much. The Royals insist they aren’t going to make any deal that requires them to eat any of Beltran’s salary.

Bob Dutton
The Kansas City Star

-----Original Message-----
From: El Guapo's Ghost
Sent: Friday, June 27, 2003 12:22 PM
To: Bob Dutton
Subject: RE: Beltran

Bob Dutton,

Thanks for the quick reply.

"There are three types of prospect deals," Cleveland's Mark Shapiro said. "The first is one in which you take back most of the salary, and in that case you should get one very good prospect and one good one. The second is where you take some of the contract, and there you should expect a good, but not great, prospect. The third is where the team trading for the player has to take all the contract, and in that case you probably won't get even a good prospect. That's the law of the land right now." – (Gammons, espn.com)

If the Royals are not willing to eat salary and the market is really as Shapiro describes, then they should kill all of the rumors now because they will not get fair value for Beltran.

Given I am not a Royals fan and do not know all of the contract details, but assuming the Royals keep the 2004 payroll about the same, they should be able to keep Beltran next season. Randa, Ibanez, Mayne, Tucker, Grimsley and Lopez are and should be coming off the books totaling $16.5 million. Only two players are arbitration eligible: Beltran and Febles. My guess is Beltran could get $10 million and Febles - $1.5 million, which is an increase of $4.75 million over their 2003 wages. Even if I am off by 25%, the Royals would have $10.5 million to spend on minimal raises for the youngsters and find replacements behind the plate, third and left.

Baird and/or Glass should have a press conference telling the fans and everyone that Beltran is staying. The Royals could gets some good PR and possibly increase attendance at least in the short-term from this non-move. Baird should let it be known that the Royals can afford Beltran in 2004 and they are not afraid to let him walk; draft pick compensation would be okay. These statements would provide additional leverage in possible deals during the off-season when the market should be different. Teams will have more financial flexibility to bring in a $10 million player.

-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Dutton
Sent: Friday, June 27, 2003 7:02 PM
To: El Guapo's Ghost
Subject: RE: Beltran

Shapiro makes a good point. I asked Baird that very point and his belief is that Beltran is that rare exception. But I think the Royals are increasingly likely to hold onto Beltran until the end of the season unless they get exactly what they want.

Bob Dutton
The Kansas City Star

-----Original Message-----
From: El Guapo's Ghost
Sent: Tuesday, July 01, 2003 5:16 PM
To: 'Bob Dutton'
Subject: RE: Beltran

Thanks! I hope the Royals hold onto Beltran. It would make for a more interesting summer in the AL Central. Three good division races would be great.

Have a good Fourth. Go Red Sox.