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Wednesday, July 09, 2003

Big win last night for two reasons: 1) mentally after Monday’s game, 2) ground ball pitchers going tonight and tomorrow on turf. Intuitively, one would think that since ground balls move faster on turf, it is more difficult for the infielder to catch and turn ground balls into outs increasing the opposing team’s ability to score runs. I am too lazy to put together a real study, but looking at Lowe and Mendoza’s ERA splits on grass and turf since 2000 is Revealing. And when is Brooke Burke going to take Jules Asner’s job again? More airtime for Brooke is best for all.

(Innings/ERA).
Lowe on turf is (109/4.54) and on grass (402/2.80)
Mendoza on turf is (33/8.18) and on grass (267/3.61)

Lowe’s variance is very telling and I believe is statistically significant; it is more than 20% of the total sample (I may have just disappointed Prof. Bill Anderson). I am not advocating that Lowe should not pitch on turf. An ERA of four and half is pretty good. I am lobbying for a more creative approach to managing the starting rotation to maximize the probability of preventing runs. The All-Star break should allow Shady Chicken Little to slot the starters for the series against Toronto and New York in July and begin thinking about the critical month of August.

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