El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

At the Break, the Sox are 55-38. They are leading the Wild Card race by one game over Oakland and down two games to New York in the AL East. The Sox are right on their Pythagorean record, (runs scored [squared] / runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]), developed by Bill James to predict winning percentage. The Yankees and A’s are basically on too; both a one win above their Pythagorean record. All three teams are just as good and close as their records indicate. We should expect a real dog fight for a playoff spot barring injuries and reinforcements.

The consensus among Red Sox Nation is that acquiring another pitcher will have the greatest impact on the team. I do not disagree, but pitching is not the club’s weakness.

Strength – Hitting and Starters
The Sox are first in the A.L. in runs scored, OBP and SLG. Enough said. Starting pitching is fourth in runs, first in strikeouts and homeruns, third in ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and an expected tenth in walks. Obviously, an improvement in walks would be nice. A staff with both Wakefield and Burkett, pitchers that are susceptible to the long ball, should be happy with giving up a few more free passes than dingers.

Weakness – Fielding
I am not a big believer in fielding stats, but the Sox are ranked eighth in fielding percentage, tenth in range factor and thirteenth in zone rating. Collectively, the Sox rankings are a good indication that the team is below average. Todd Walker at second, Kevin Millar Time and Mo Light at first have without a doubt defensive issues. I do not feel that a possible improvement with the glove would outweigh the likely decrease in offensive production at either spot. Not much can be done this season to help the Sox in the field.

Opportunity – Bullpen
The addition of Kim has been enormous. Jones to date has performed well and Fossum should prove valuable as another lefty. Embree has been lights out after getting healthy. Hopefully, Fox will follow Embree’s track. These are all good developments, but the real improvement in the pen may prove to be the subtractions.

The bullpen is tenth in runs allowed. They are third in K’s, eighth in BB, seventh in G/F ratio and thirteenth in home runs. Which one of these does not belong? The Sox pen has given up 40 jimmy-jacks in 304 innings which is the big issue. The former Sox relief pitchers yielded 16 dingers in 75 innings or 40% while pitching only 25% of the time. I am confident that the new additions, given their track records, will not give up home runs at an equal pace as the departed.

Threats – Right side of the infield
See Weakness

Tomorrow – What can be done to improve the Sox?
Wednesday – Fantasy Analysis - email only.
Thursday – Sox 2004