El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

Alex Belth’s Bronx Banter (link on right) had a wonderful interview with Michael Lewis author of Moneyball. Moneyball is the story of the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s success in MLB with a limited budget. I highly recommend the book to everyone and definitely for baseball fans, business/lawyer/stockbroker types and people who root for the underdog. The excerpt below is Lewis’ thoughts on the Red Sox and my reply to Belth.

ML: I think that the Red Sox job is actually a really shitty job right now. Because you’ve got this organization that looks to the fans and the media like, ‘Oh, we could win a World Series this year,’ but in fact, the minor league system’s bankrupt. Four of your stars’ contracts are coming up after next season. To do it right, what they need to do is rebuild. Not to max out right away at the major league level, but actually take a longer view. And that is such a bad environment to try and take a longer view because everybody wants it now…

Boston is insane though. They haven’t won it since 1918, you’d think they could put up with someone who came in and had a plan. But they can’t. So I think Beane saw that…

Alex Belth,

I am very surprised at Lewis’ comments regarding the state of my Red Sox. First, it appears that he is implying that the Red Sox are not in contention for the playoffs and a championship. If this is the case, then Lewis has completely misevaluated the Red Sox position in the success cycle. After 2004 when “four of your stars’ contracts” are up, then the Sox should reload. Now and next season is the time to “max out” on the major league roster without hurting a “bankrupt” minor league system, which I believe is Theo’s plan. (“Bankrupt” is harsh considering Freddy Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, the Greek God of Walks [Kevin Youkilis] and four to five quality pitching talent is in the Sox system). The Red Sox financial advantage over most of the league allows them to implement this strategy. Unless a disaster occurs, the Red Sox should not need to move into a full rebuilding mode like Cleveland as Lewis suggests. Of course, the jury is still out on whether the media and fan pressure, egos and other factors will persuade Theo and the ownership to deviate from their approach and give up on their top prospects.

Thanks,

Tom
"Insane" Red Sox fan and El Guapo’s Ghost
www.elguaposghost.blogspot.com

The timing could not be better to help substantiate my claim as Gordon Edes writes today as a part of his Red Sox Notebook in the Boston Globe.

Investing in the future
The Red Sox took the unusual step of sending out a press release delineating the money they spent on signing their draft picks this season, after signing 19 of their top 20 picks for the first time since 1995. According to the team, the Sox invested a club-record $5.5 million in agreeing to terms with 32 of the players selected in the draft overall. The club made investments of $3.1 million last year, $2.9 million in 2001, and $3.4 million in 2000. Over the last two seasons, the Red Sox say they have spent more than $8.6 million toward signing amateur draft selections, an increase of more than 33 percent over the combined $6.4 million spent on 2000 and 2001 drafts. The growth has taken place while baseball signing bonuses, overall, have declined this year by 12 percent.

''This should be a dramatic illustration that we are serious about cementing the long-term success of this franchise through amateur scouting and player development,'' CEO Larry Lucchino said in a statement. ''Our scouting staff worked tirelessly to identify this talent, and ownership made a substantial financial commitment to sign these players. Now they start down the road that we hope our new player development program will one day lead many of them to Fenway Park.''