El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox

The Sox need a safety net for X at shortstop; just not in the form of Stephen Drew.  Bringing back Drew would likely necessitate a trade that erodes their pitching depth for the Sox to stay under the luxury tax and would forgo a compensation draft pick.  It would also limit the playing time and development of X and WMB.  Jayson Nix is a better option as a backup.  As the best Red Sox position prospect for some time, X deserves a long leash like Dustin Pedroia had his rookie season.  Relax and get ready to enjoy another laser show.

So far, the Sox outperformed my expectations.  Buchhloz, when healthy, has been as productive as Pedro.  Lackey is pitching like a true ace.  The pen has been solid.  The meat of the order has performed well despite their lingering health issues.  But it is not time to deviate from the long-term plan: to build the next great Red Sox team.

The Red Sox lead the A.L. or are second in the three conventional offensive metrics – average, on base percentage, slugging percentage - that correlate well to future production.  Without assistance, we should anticipate drop off going forward.  Salty and Nava have exceeded expectations before the Break.  The duo could perform just as well in the second half, but it is unlikely.  Also, it is highly probable that Iglesias and Carp are going to come back down to earth, if and when they get more attempts.  These declines could be offset by better production from the Opening Day starters on the left side of the infield, Drew and Middlebrooks, or a sneak preview by Bogarets.  Unfortunately, the probability of the Sox offensive upside is lower than their downside.  Hence, the fantastic lineup from the first half is likely to tail off heading into the Fall.

On the other side of the ledger, runs allowed, the Sox have not been as successful.  They are second in strikeout rate per nine innings, but are towards the bottom in walks per nine.  The worst offenders of issuing free passes are Doubront and Dempster.  A significant improvement may not come to fruition but the glove work should get better.

Another less discussed, although very important, metric is defensive efficiency.  DE is the percentage of outs on ball put into play.  It is the opposite of a hitter batting average on balls in play.  DE is a good measure of a team’s glove work.  The Sox are tenth in the A.L.  On paper, the weak defensive players man the least important positions – left field and first base – so it is surprising that the club is among the bottom third in the A.L.  It seems like the Sox need to play better or get luckier.  Perhaps, the Olde Towne Team’s opponents have been hitting ‘em where they aint.

Overall, we should expect run prevention to get better and the lineup to take a step back.  The Sox look strong heading into the second half.  There is no need to trade the future for the present.

Assuming the Celtics objective is to win another Championship, which we should not doubt, and not just put an entertaining product on the court, then it is time to rebuild. 
Since only one team in the past eleven seasons has won a title without a top ten PER player and Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are no longer in that category, then it is prudent to start over.  A team needs a superstar to go all the way in the NBA.

Without the ability to overpay for a player, Boston is not a "destination city" so the Celtics will have to acquire a superstar through the draft or trade for such a player.
It makes sense for Danny Ainge to acquire as many as assets as possible for another KG and Ray Allen deal.  "Trading" Doc Rivers for a unconditional draft pick was a great move.  KG, Paul, and others should be traded as well.  And at the same time, putting a poorer product on the floor this season for what is projected to be a great draft in 2014.

The Celtics could be back quickly if all goes well.  The third time tanking a season is the charm.

Labels: celtics, doc rivers, kevin garnett, paul pierce

Will Middlebrook AP

The Red Sox have played a legit 600 baseball over the first third of the season.  If they continue on this pace, we are looking at a 95 plus win season and October baseball.  But it is doubtful that the club will continue to play this well as they are currently constructed. 

The Sox pitching is solid and deep.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are bring back memories of Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe.  But unlike in 1988, we are not praying for snow after DLowe's starts.  John Lackey and Ryan Dempster are capable middle of the rotation starters (I have come around on the thirty something pair).  Franklin Morales, Felix Doubront and Alfredo Aceves provide depth in the rotation without even considering the prospects.  The pen has a threesome of late inning relievers and a loogy, which  is the receipe for an effecitve modern bullpen.  But pitching is only one part of the game.

Even though the Olde Towne Team's lineup ranks high in most offensive catgeories, sustained excellence may not continue.  The top producers - Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino - all have health concerns.  The production of journey man, Daniel Nava, has offset the terrible first third of the year put up by Will Middlebrooks.  Nava will probably regress, but we should begin to doubt Middlebrooks ability to get out of his sophomore slump.  The Sox should explore an upgrade at the hot corner that is not a short shop from Cuba.  Jose Iglesias is not the answer.

In all, the 2013 Red Sox has been a pleasant surprise.  But please do not be tempted to trade the future to get back to October baseball at Fenway.  We want sustained success again.

Labels: Red Sox

by SOB, guest poster and buddy of El Guapo's Ghost

Never Tell Me the Odds!

Labels: casino, gambling, han solo, odds, Red Sox, star wars

The 2013 Red Sox is the infamous “bridge year.”  And it is the right move.  One eye on 2013 and  the other on 2014 and beyond  is necessary after accepting the Dodgers godfather offer last August.

In a watered down A.L. East, the 2013 Red Sox have an outside shot at the Division.  A career year  or two and some  good  luck can lead to October baseball in the Fens.  But Yawkey Way should be planning to subtract rather than add to the club in July. 

The Sox have a number of possible attractive pieces to trade.  Free agents after the 2013 season are likely to be dealt.  The most notable is Jacoby Ellsbury.  The former MVP candidate, if healthy and productive, could command a piece to the 2014 puzzle.  The others alone may not bring back a significant player but future assets are more valuable than Stephen Drew, Aaron Hanrahan, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltimacchia. 

As we look towards the middle years of this decade, the Sox options on the mound is relatively deep.  Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Allen Webster, Jorge De La Rosa, Felix Doubront, etc. provide enough options that at least three  could  become top of the rotation starters.  The right side of the defensive spectrum looks strong with Will Middlebrooks, Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Xander Bogaerts or Jose Iglesias.  The organization appears to be missing another possible middle of the order bat.  Middlebrooks and Bogaerts may not become the next Manny-Ortiz.  The Sox should target a slugging prospect to diversify their offensive assets like they have on the mound.

The Tigers could be the ideal trading partner.  They are in win-now mode, do not have an established closer, could use an upgrade in left field and have hitting prospect, Nick Castellanos.  He is a legit hitting prospect.  A package with Castellanos, Ellsbury and Hanrahan as the principals could make sense for both parties.  But the Sox would need to have both eyes on the future.